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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Aqueduct Wednesday

In the second at the Big A, Patent Pending Tom (10-1) ran well for third two back when dropping to this level and adding blinkers, sweeping wide into the turn and hanging a bit late after threatening throughout the stretch drive. Way up the track on a sealed good track in his last, gets a fast track here; value play.

In the 4th, All Quiet (8-1) stepped up impressively in her first against winners for trainer Rick Schosberg. Daughter of Henny Hughes finished well for third against a hopeless pace scenario and an impressive favorite in the Toddster's Midnight Visit. This barn is 0 for its last 13, but knocking on the door of late with a close second and three competitive thirds in its last six starts. May not get a contested pace in here either, but looks eligible to pick up a piece at least. Those Lion Eyes (4-1) improved second off the layoff two back in her first start for trainer Carlos Martin. Similar spacing here after a second impressive win for the barn, and could find herself alone on the lead. Ava K. (3-5) dominated at 4-5 in her debut.

In the 6th, Take A Vow (7-2) drops in search of a winning level for trainer Bruce Levine. May have found it in a flawed field here.

In the 7th, Private Rules (6-1) dropped to this state-bred allowance level in his last after facing stakes company after graduating last year. May have run into a stakes horse in the impressive Dr. Disco (7-5 second choice against open company in the feature), but bested the rest of the field. Figures to be a square price against Highest Regards (6-5), another, like Ava K., facing winners for the first time after earning a field-high Beyer trouncing maidens at odds-on in his debut (in June against four rivals at Belmont).


Figless said...

You are supposed to play against the likes of Ava K and Highest Regards, impressive, big fig, debut winners, facing winners for the first time, especially if a layoff followed.

Will be wrong more than you are right but will get paid when you beat them.

Both appear vulnerable, if one loses will have a wining day.

Dirty said...

Dirty's Derby Top 5:

Uncle Mo
Dialed In
Cook Inlet
A Baffert horse, maybe Jaycito

alan said...

Dirty - Don't know why your comments are not saving. You're not banned or anything. :)

steve in nc said...

Speaking of the real big dirty, why did it take the NY stewards more than 3 months to announce a suspension for Dutrow's hypodermics?

3 months to charge. Appeal. Hearing. Wait some more. Suspension upheld until a court injunction is issued next day. He'll keep racing through the BC, then drop the suit and the appeal and make his assistant work the winter while he cashes the checks. Great system.

If at the end of all this due process, cheaters really got their due and we could wave bye bye to them, it would be worth it all. But 90 days of the same horses with the same owners in the same barn with the same grooms and assistants, pretending the head guy's not involved?! This has got to stop.

Sorry Alan, but I hope Drape runs 3 front page articles on it. Almost no one deserves the wrath of this awful Congress. Thoroughbred racing does.

Crist has turned soft and doesn't bother. HANA's decided that the take is more important while the pols care only about the sport's declining ability to fill state budget gaps. NTRA doesn't include tough drug penalties as part of its safety certification. The other trainers aren't uniting to campaign for tough penalties against cheaters. Who in this industry gives a shit?

DiscreetPicks said...

I like the looks of Albergatti myself, but i don't think he's much a Derby threat. His mom was one of the quickest fillies i've ever seen, but she never recorded a single win around two turns. That's bad enough, but he's also getting a pretty late start as far as foundation and graded earnings go. Nice animal, all the same.

Figless said...

Nice call on Private Rules.

Ava K was for real, Highest Regards not.

Figless said...

More incomptance, this weekends Derby Future pool is here and once again the pool closes before two of the three Derby preps scheduled for this weekend are run.

Every year there are many suggestions on how to improve this wager and one of the suggestions is to keep the pool opeu until the end of the final Derby prep.

Every year they ignore all the suggestions and run the pool the same way.

A) Do they actually think it is better this way?
B) are they oblvious to the suggesetions?
C) Are they incompetant?
C) Do they just not give a damn?

Anonymous said...

Those are all fair questions, figman. -jp

DiscreetPicks said...

Maybe they're afraid people will change their mind about betting a certain horse, after that horse goes out and underperforms (or just happens to lose the race). That would be my guess.

You'd think that would be counter-acted by people rushing to bet the winner of whatever prep was just run, but apparently they feel otherwise.

Frankly, i think the entire thing is a moot point. There's no value in these pools at all (with rare exceptions). Now, they would have us BELIEVE that there's value, which they try to do by pointing to the Derby winner after-the-fact and saying that you could've gotten such-and-such number on him way-back-when. But what future wagering is realy all about is getting an overlay AT THE TIME YOU MAKE YOUR BET. It's imperative that you factor in the time between now and the Derby, the number of times he'll run between now and them, the risk of injury stemming from those starts and the accompanying worktabs, and the amount of graded earnings he'll need to get into the race. And let's not forget that the Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race, a distance that none of these horses will have ever attempted before. That's not even including the chance of a horrific post-draw or nightmare trip, as Lookin at Lucky backers can attest to on both counts. Or the chance of a muddy track, which can greatly affect the outcome as well.

I understand that people get excited about certain horses and want to have something to root for (which again, might explain why they're closing pools before the preps go off), and those outside of Nevada are limited in their options (as if it's much better's not). But unless you just want to piss your money away, which nobody wants to do, you need to look at future betting from a logical perspective. God Knows, it's hard enough to pick the Derby winner on RACEDAY. Let alone 2 1/2 months out.

Figless said...

DP, correct on all points for serious wagering, but I think this type of wager is fun and I always drop a 20 spot on a bomb.

Was alive with I Want Revenge at 56-1 and had Funny Cide, but of course I play one in each pool so that is not so impressive.

But for years gamblers have been complaining about the limitation to 23 runners and the premature closing.

From the books point of view, the primary goal should be to maximize the dollars bet into the pool, correct? One way to do that would be to keep the damn thing open until 1 hour after the last race was run.

I once tried to analzye fair odds based on historical attrition and essentially you needed to get odds three times greater than closing odds on Derby Day to justify the risk of actually landing in the starting gate.

So if you REALLY like someone right now you should be looking for about 15-1 or more. But as I state I usually shop in the 40-1 range.

Anonymous said...


RCI President Asks NY to Review Dutrow License
Lexington, Ky - RCI President Ed Martin today formally requested the New York State Racing and Wagering Board commence a review of the racing license now held by thoroughbred trainer Richard Dutrow.
In a letter to the Board (seen here), Martin noted that Mr. Dutrow has violated the rules of racing in nine different states, at fifteen racetracks, and has been cited sixty-four times.

"In reviewing Mr. Dutrow's career in racing you will find a variety of violations that need to be assessed in determining whether there is pattern of disregard for the rules sufficient to take action on his racing license," Martin wrote.

"In addition to numerous violations of the drug rules pertaining to phenylbutazone, clenbuterol, and mepivacaine, there are violations concerning failure to adhere to licensing requirements, entering ineligible horses, conduct detrimental to racing involving false or misleading statements, as well as a variety of violations concerning failure to file proper documentation consistent with the rules," he said.

Martin noted that a review of the underlying racing license is appropriate given what appears to be a pattern of disregard of the rules, spanning many years.

“How many so called honest mistakes can one have before you question whether there has been a total disregard for adherence to the rules. I ask the New York Board to make that determination and examine Mr. Dutrow's career in racing to see if sufficient evidence exists to say enough is enough,” said Martin.

DiscreetPicks said...

15/1 three months before the race? If you knew for a fact who the raceday favorite would be, then sure, it might be worth taking 15/1 right now. Of course, we don't know who the raceday favorite is. You mention I Want Revenge, how about Eskendereya? 2 1/2 months is an eternity as far as these things go. I had big tickets on Quality Road (60/1) and The Pamplemousse (125/1) a few years ago, and neither of them even made it to the race. That's what, already 4 major contenders injured within a month of the Derby, just in the last few years? Take a look at this year's favorite, Uncle Mo. He still hasn't made a single 3yo start yet. And he's being presented as a 9/2 chance to win a 1 1/4-mile race with 20 starters that's still nearly 3 months away? Who do they think they're kidding?

Figless said...

Based on my minimal research historically about 1/3 of the horses in the first pool will actually start, which is how I arrived at my 15-1 minimal acceptable odds, assuming a 4-1 favorite.

Not saying its a good bet, just that number should be the starting point in one's analysis of the race.

I would consider taking 15-1 on Uncle Mo right now, for instance, if I actually favored him, which I do not.

He will probably be 1-2 in his next two starts so 15-1 is value IF you love the horse, agree 9-2 is absurd.

Anonymous said...

I believe the Field has had a historically positive ROI since this bet was first initiated a decade or so ago.

Several years ago there was a story on a guy who played futures bets every year and set up an arbitrage-style of wagering where he was guaranteed a profit on Derby day. It's probably more difficult now than it was then, though I seem to recall him making a $10k bet on the field in the very first futures pool and that sucker paid something like 4-1 when stupid Charismatic (who I bet on in the SA Derby and then didn't bet on in his next three races, which he won at 12-1, 30-1 and 8-1) won the Derby. -jp

DiscreetPicks said...

Did Charismatic run in the SA Derby? I'm pretty sure he won the Lexington going into his Derby win. Great job by Antley getting him pulled up in the Belmont, btw.

Anonymous said...

Yes, he finished 4th in the SA Derby to Prime Timber, Generally Challenged etc, at 34-1. Lukas the butcher then wheeled him back to win the Lexi two weeks later at 12-1. -jp

Anonymous said...

Derby day I was in section 313 talking to some dude before the race and he was like, "I like Charismatic," and I said good luck with that. I walked away thinking what an idiot. But man he got the last laugh. I think I bet on stupid Vicar. -jp

Figless said...

I loved Prime Timber that day, think he broke from the 19 or 20 post and after an expected wide trip made a belated rally for fifth beaten about two lenghts, may have been best.

Thought he would be a pleasant surprise as a sire, but totally mismanaged in upstate NY (farm now bankrupt), he gets a lot of sound winners but oddly specializes in turf sprinters?

Ya never know.