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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Tuesday Notes and Special Elections

In the 7th at Belmont on Sunday, Somali Lemonade ($22.40) was the third first-time 2yo winner for trainer Michael Matz, and 4th juvenile over all (out of 10 such starters), since the beginning of the Saratoga meet. The other winning firsters paid 7-1 and 27-1. This is a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid out of a daughter of Nureyev; and in fact, Somali Lemonade is, unusually, inbred to that stallion 4x2. She's a half-sister to [the dam of] Baraan, a highly-regarded French three-year old colt who was recently declared out of the Arc, after being as short as 12-1. This is also the family of the turf specialist Al Khali, and a bunch of classy dirt horses including Queena, Too Chic, and Soaring Empire. [More on Matz in the comments section here, thanks RG.]

In the 5th on Wednesday, Matz is scheduled to saddle Hulako (6-1), returning to the grass and stretching out to ten furlongs. Son of Dynaformer has closed pretty well against better and may appreciate the stretch out and the drop in class (at least as far as grass races go) here. He has some distance, if not grass, in his pedigree, his second dam being a full-sister to the two-time Classic winner Tiznow. Could add some value to the tickets in a race in which the 2nd and 3rd morning line choices drop in for a tag first time off lengthy layoffs. Smokin Start, the morning line choice at 5-2, has the trip comment 'Awful trip, lost chance' on his pp line for his last race. I heard Serling talk about a horse with a similar comment on Sunday, which he kinda laughed off with the suggestion that such hyperbole can sometimes constitute an exaggeration. Similarly, in this case, sure, he had a tough trip, taken up sharply on two separate occasions. However, he was at the back of the pack, was dead on the board, and his prior form shows little indication that he could have done better than his usual sucking along for a minor share of the purse. Nonetheless looks dangerous here with the drop in class and switch to Johnny V, but worth a shot against should he be the betting favorite. Syros (4-1), one of the class droppers mentioned above, last raced in March, for Clement. Surely has the pedigree chops to take this very interesting maiden claiming affair - also by Dynaformer, his dam, Merdiana, won the mile and a half Orchid and produced Center Divider, second in the 11 furlong Bowling Green and in the 13 furlong John's Call.

- Tuesday is the special election to replace Anthony Weiner here in the 9th Congressional District, and it does not look good for the Democratic candidate David Weprin. The latest polls show the GOP candidate Bob Turner ahead by a half a dozen points. When you hear a candidate say things like “The only poll that counts is the one tomorrow,” you know he or she is in trouble, and knows it. Weprin was supposed to be a lock in a district in which registered D's outnumber registered R's by a 3-to-1 margin. However, he's proven to be an uninspiring and sometimes awkward campaigner.

Turner on the other hand picked up a highly-publicized endorsement from Ed Koch, who links Weprin to what Koch claims is an Israel-unfriendly Obama administration. The district worms its way from here in Queens to neighborhoods in Brooklyn with substantial Orthodox populations. (Weprin himself is an Orthodox Jew.) Turner was also endorsed by the NY Daily News after Weprin, in an appearance before the paper's Editorial Board, he proved clueless as to the size of the national debt. He pegged the amount at $4 trillion - a mere $10 trillion less than it actually is.

And, Weprin has lost support from the Orthodox community due to his vote in the state Assembly in favor of gay marriage. On Monday, a prominent rabbi agreed to do robocalls for Turner even though he confesses that he knows absolutely nothing about the candidate. Rabbi Zechariah Wallerstein, who began to wonder if the time had come to leave the country after the gay marriage law was passed in Albany, said that Weprin had "defied Jewish law" with his vote. The rabbi might once again want to leave the country if he does a little research on the GOP candidate he now supports. Turner was the creator of the Jerry Springer show, which I doubt comports with Jewish law nor the rabbi's sense of morality.

Interestingly, despite that large 3-to-1 advantage to registered Democrats, Nate Silver pointed out on his FiveThirtyEight blog that President Obama only received 55% of the vote (down from 67% for Gore), and that a slight majority of voters there have a negative impression of the president. So an upset on Tuesday may not be as much of an upset as it may seem. (Still, I'll be upset.)


Anonymous said...

Saturday at Delaware Matz's Space Race, a 2yo first starter ran away from a msw field at Delaware and paid $28.80.
Friday in the 9th Matz has a workmate of Somali(Assateague) making his 2nd start on the turf. Has great looking turf pedigree.
I think it might be something in the water at Fairhill.

Anonymous said...

Anyone with a brain would realize that Welprin is an Obama clone. His ads about Turner are lies. No one person could change SS or Medicare. Turner will protect those programs for anyone over 50. The systems need to be changed so your children will be able to participate. Obama supported the "Arab Spring" which will produce more Iran's.

El Angelo said...

I love that anyone could think an Orthodox Jew is the "clone" of the son of a Kenyan.

Andy Serling said...

I didn't " laugh it off. " I just don't think grandiose hyperbole in the chart comments does anyone any good. It was also a gross exageration in the case of Sunday's runner, but that wasn't really my point.

The chart calling in Saratoga was excellent overall. However, personally I prefer specifics to generals, and the dramatic hyperbole ( I have seen three recent examples including the two you mentioned ) is something I think would be best avoided.

Having said all that....I like the one Wednesday...but also agree with you that it has more to do with the needed drop in class.

Figless said...

Since my horse handicapping has been in a tailspin lately, figure I will try my luck handicapping politics.

Despite the polls believe Weprin will win comfortably since the ground game means everything in special elections and the Orthodox community will inevitably support sending one of their own to Congress, unpopular gay marraige vote notwithstanding.

I suspect the vast majority of voters that crossed party lines in the Presidential race were in fact Orthodox Jews, and did so because of Sen. McCain's impeccable pro-Israel record and his long term freindship with Sen. Leiberman. Those voters are very likely to side with Weprin once the curtain closes behind them, his presumed strong support of Israel will far outweigh his percieved negatives.

Alan Mann said...

Nice job there Figless, maybe you should start a Talkin' Horses' Asses show about politics!

One correction though. No more curtains at NY polling places, just the scanning machines. They've added a "Privacy Folder" so that election workers don't see who you voted for. I did however find myself waiting for some kind of ticket after I inserted my vote. Guess I though I was at a SAM machine (do they still call them that?)

steve in nc said...

My experience with most of these trainer angles is, by the time the informed public catches them, either the prices or the success rate (or both) dry up. I hope it holds out for you another week, although I'd expect lower odds.

As for politics...

So Rabbi Wallerstein is thinking of leaving the country because gays are allowed to marry?

The good rabbi should instead come on down to NC where the newly Republican legislature is working to add an amendment to the state constitution outlawing gay marriage.

Leaving the orthodox enclave and moving to the Bible Belt might provide a valuable spiritual and political lesson: a chance to experience intolerance at the hands of one's erstwhile political allies, who only support Israel out of desire for the Rapture. These are the same folks who want to open the school day and government meetings with prayers to Jesus.

Anonymous said...

Common sense prevails in New York.

14 months from now will be a bloodbath!

BATTLIN said...

Oh Alan , do you left wing Libs really believe your own BS.The 9th district result was all about Obama ...he'll be the equivalent of a $ 4,000 claimer ,this time next year ,running at Charles Town. Say goodby to your Dem Senate majority as well in 2012

Anonymous said...

Hi Alan - I guess SS will now stop in your district. Medicare will no longer be available. Granny will be put out to pasture. This is what you Dems are running on. Americans know entitlements have to be fixed - not ended. What is laughable is the following from Wasserman-Shultz:“In this district, there is a large number of people who went to the polls tonight who didn’t support the president to begin with and don’t support Democrats — and it’s nothing more than that,” she said in a telephone interview. I never realized your district was so conservative Alan.

Figless said...

Clearly I am as bad a picking candidates as I am at horses.

Realized my faux pas about the curtains the minute I posted, actually I blame my miscalculation on the lack of privacy, yeah thats a good excuse :)

As for reading the tea leaves I still believe this upset has more to do with Obama's luke warm support of Israel in a unique district which does not translate to the rest of the country.

Its the economy stupid, if it shows signs of improvement in the next six months Obama has a shot at another term, if not he is a one term president.

Johnnie said...

Another day another dollar down the drain.

Alan Mann said...

^^ Well, sorry man...but let's be clear here. What I wrote is:

"Could add some value to the tickets in a race in which the 2nd and 3rd morning line choices drop in for a tag first time off lengthy layoffs."

Those two horses went off as the co-favorites and both finished out of the money, and the Matz horse finished third. And I wrote that the winner "looks dangerous off the drop." (Sure, I wrote he'd be worth betting against as the favorite, but he was a distant third choice.) So I wasn't completely wrong in this particular case! :-x

Anonymous said...

Figless forgot about the 2010 election. Everyone dislikes Obama.