Monday Morning Quarterbacking

- Looking back at the pre-race expectations for how the Derby would be run versus what actually happened, it seems like a mixed bag. The pace was fast, but not the fastest. There was uncontrollable speed, but it was Keyed Entry rather than Sinister Minister or Sharp Humor. The performance by the latter was perhaps the strangest of the race; Mark Guidry tried to rate just behind the lead.....But he said Sharp Humor fought him and tried to run full speed, which "just took away our chances." [Louisville Courier-Journal] Just a few days ago Romans was asking anyone who’d listen why he would possibly change the horse’s style at this time? Yet, that’s exactly what they tried to do.

But that really wasn’t a big factor; those horses all finished in the back of the pack anyway. The main thing that was supposed to happen but didn’t was the contentious second tier of pressers and not-fast-enough speed horses battling each other into submission too close to the hot pace. Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint were all unable to stay close enough to be a factor at anytime other than the latter’s brief foray up the rail. This left Barbaro with little company other than Showing Up as he tracked the lead. With all the talk about how he would be facing a new experience with the big field and the anticipated pressure, he basically ran the same exact race that he has in each of his wins. One factor that I ignored to my detriment in my handicapping was the way he was able to establish position so effortlessly in the Florida Derby, despite breaking from the dreaded ten post. That’s proven to be almost an impossible task. Once Barbaro drew the favorable eight post for the Derby, it figures in hindsight that with the long run to the stretch, and with the other pressers drawn to the outside, he would likely have a strategic advantage going into the turn.

As far as the pace collapsing, it did, kind of. Other than Barbaro, anyway. Steppenwolfer and Jazil were able to mount their rallies, as did Brother Derek from much farther back than he’s ever been before. If you watch the stretch run and just focus on the horses in the second half of the field, it’s not a pretty picture. In fact, that’s what the entire field other than Giacomo looked like last year, when the final quarter was run in nearly 27 seconds; big difference between that and 24.34! Runner-up Bluegrass Cat benefited from a flawless, ground-saving ride by Ramon Dominguez to get the place spot, and the rider said "I couldn't get a better trip than I did today." [Delaware Online]

Here’s a couple of excuses from the west coast contingent, which didn’t fare that well this year – after Brother Derek’s 4th, the best finisher was Point Determined (9th).

"After three-eighths, he started moving nicely behind (Barbaro)," said Rafael Bejarano, rider of Point Determined (ninth). "But after he switched leads, he got tired."

A.P. Warrior jockey Corey Nakatani, who finished 18th, said his horse "wasn't handling the track. He just didn't fire today." [Courier-Journal]

Even though he went off at higher odds than Point Determined or Bob and John, I’d say that AP Warrior was perhaps the biggest disappointment in terms of expectations vs. result, with Point Determined not far behind.

Mike Trombetta claims that Sweetnorthernsaint was stuck on a dead rail. "We knew it, thought about it but still wound up there in some way. ....My horse looked like he came back good and I would like nothing more than to take another crack in two weeks.” [Washington Post] As his horse gets ready to enter the gate for the Preakness, all eyes will be on the tote board to see if he gets slammed late again. Tom Hammond picked up on it right away on NBC. I had the odds on my computer screen, and thought maybe Hammond was mistaken; with all the money in the pool, how was that possible? But sure enough, SNS and Barbaro switched places at 5 and 6 to 1. And it’s not like SNS just slipped in; he was slammed all the way down to 5.50 to 1! That was a prodigious punch.

Bloodhorse.com has all the losers’ stories here.

Back to Business

- Life goes on after the Derby as Edgar Prado, just around 19 hours after the biggest win of his life, was aboard Dream to Dress, the 6-5 favorite in the first race at Belmont before around 6,000 fans. He ran third, but ended up with three winners on the day, including the unfortunately named Oprah Winney in the NY-breds Bouwerie Stakes.

Garrett Gomez was also in town, beginning his New York stint for Todd Pletcher. Gomez was aboard Bob and John on Saturday. He went off lower than I thought he would at 12-1; I thought that AP Warrior would get more money than he did. At 14-1, you could almost say that he was dead on the board. Gomez said he had a rough trip on the 17th place finisher. "Just when I got to a spot where I could be comfortable....something would come along and bang me again." [Star-Telegram] Gomez did win, however, on Pussycat Doll and English Channel.

At Belmont on Sunday, he failed in a couple of attempts for Pletcher, who was not present. In the 4th, their Brantley (Theatrical) was bet to 5-2 favoritism in his first start. He ran well enough for third, but nothing was catching the winner, Beautiful Daniele. This looks like a nice three-year old turf filly for John Kimmel. Mike Smith set a moderate pace with the winner, who then sprinted home in 23.35 seconds. She’s by AP Indy, out of an unraced Storm Cat mare who is a half-sister to the Juvenile Filly winner Countess Diana; her second dam a half to the dam of the Grade 1 winner Exogenous.

Pletcher did it again on Saturday in the 11th at Churchill – yes, that’s right, I bet on the 11th at Churchill yesterday, call me what you will – as Yes Yes Yes won in his first race since last October. This one was totally dead on the board - 3-1 in the morning line, he went to the post at 7-1! I fully fell into that, and turned to eventual show horse British Attitude instead. I’ve noticed lately that as much as he wins, you sometimes do get good prices on Pletcher’s horses. Don’t be scared to take a shot with a Pletcher returnee or first-timer because you think it’s not getting bet. You could do worse than holding a ticket on one of those at 6 or 7 to 1.

- Where the hell was Lawyer Ron yesterday?

"He wouldn't give me nothing at all," [John] McKee said. "I'm just shocked at the results."

When the field made its first run past the grandstand, Lawyer Ron was near the front of the pack, but unlike the past six races - all wins - he never made a move to the front.

"He just didn't have any punch turning for home," trainer Bob Holthus said. "Through the stretch, he never really kicked in. That's the first time he's run that way.” [The Gleaner.com]

But Holthus has already announced his attention to run Lawyer Ron in the Preakness. Kent Desormeaux told of his journey aboard favored Sweetnorthernsaint.

“He'd never had dirt in his face, and it took him about 100 yards to settle in about that......But he's such a quick learner, I just let him get into his high cruising speed and we started eating up horses steady and sure. . . . We'll get them next time.” [SignOnSanDiego.com]

Next time is apparently the Preakness for him too. Apparently, my initial thought that few of these would want to try Barbaro again, but apparently that is not the case. Jazil is also a possibility. But runner-up Bluegrass Cat will be pointed to the Belmont instead.

Derby Notes - Post Mortems Begin

I didn’t end up using Barbaro much at all; had him in the third spot in my triples, and don’t even remember now if he was on the end of my Pick 3’s that got busted up immediately when Behaving Badly couldn’t stave off her stablemate Pussycat Doll in the Humana. (The Pick 3 payoff of $266.80 had to be a disappointment to the winners. Pussycat Doll was the third choice, English Channel, the only thing I had right on the day, was 7-2; a straight parlay would have returned $319.50 for a $2 investment.) Barbaro seemed to gain more backers as the week went on, including, happily, readers Thecalicocat and Nick; and he completed the Oaks-Derby double for Byanose.

In trying to find a horse ready to improve on the first Saturday in May, I overlooked Barbaro. I grew more afraid of him as the week went on, especially after seeing what he looked like on the track; but I never came around. I have to admit that the five weeks played a factor in my thinking; not that I thought the mere fact of the layoff would preclude a horse from winning, but rather because I didn’t think he would move forward as he did. Thus, I figured he was good for a piece of the purse, but not as a win bet. (I did almost anticipate correctly that he’d be the favorite.)

Looking back at the race again, it was almost never in doubt. Barbaro's favorable post position and his tactical speed allowed him to get a virtually perfect trip, other than his brief stumble coming out of the gate. (Perhaps he was as surprised as I was at the lightning-quick start, occurring almost immediately after Flashy Bull completed the loading.) I mean, how perfect a set-up could you ask for, racing in the clear, right behind Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister? Well maybe that of his stablemate Showing Up, who saved ground just inside the winner. But Edgar Prado couldn’t have dreamed of a better scenario.

"Every step of the way he was running so easily," Prado said. "I wasn't even concerned about the horses in front. … I looked back a couple of times and didn't see anybody. It was just a matter of time when I can turn him loose, and you see what happened when I did." [Courier-Journal]

But this was not just a case of a horse winning because he had a good trip. This was an awesome performance, both historically – his winning margin was the most since Assault in 1946, and his final time of 2:01.36 the 14th fastest ever – and visually. For one thing, he had the speed and athleticism to recover from the poor start, and to be able to track a pace that may not have been as intense as we expected, but was still lively at 46 seconds. It was quick enough to allow the two plodders Steppenwolfer and Jazil to get up for minor shares. Barbaro was able to stay close, and not only have enough for the stretch, but talk about a horse ‘visibly quickening!' Check out the final fractions. After the three-quarters in 1:10.88, the next quarter went in 26.14 seconds. But then, Barbaro blazed through the stretch in a final quarter of 24.34 seconds. And that was under a hand ride. You don’t often see that in American horse racing, at least not on the dirt. Turf is supposed to be Barbaro’s preferred surface. That's a scary thought.

- It wasn’t quite a Mrs. Genter moment, but the shot of the “plane crash kids” screaming for Barbaro as if he were their own, was the kind of scene that ably displays the infatuation and passion that horses racing around a track inspires in human beings. However, you’d think that NBC would be more careful in this “wardrobe malfunction era” to make sure that there’s not some guy in the shot screaming “Holy shit!”

Another dramatic TV scene was the shot of the Brother Derek group right after the race. It looked like one of those ads for the Sopranos. The only guy forcing a smile was Hendricks, and watching the race again, you can see why. Brother Derek was extremely wide, and actually acquitted himself well closing for a share of 4th, I thought, after being taken completely out of his game. "Down the backside, he got into a lot of dirt and you could see him jumping around, kind of looking for a clear spot," Hendricks told the AP.

Barbaro's The Boss

- The Belmont Stakes is scheduled for June 10, and after watching Barbaro's dominance of the Kentucky Derby, is there anyone who doesn't think that the almost-annual Triple Crown Watch won't resume there this year? The flip side of one prep in 13 weeks is this: Has there ever, at least in our recent memories, been a horse in such a prime position, both in terms of form and freshness, to sweep the Triple Crown? Though we're still basking in the excitement of his performance yesterday, the Preakness seems like just a formality now, doesn't it? For one thing, who out of the 19 horses in his wake is going to be running to face him again in two weeks?

Well, Brother Derek, for one. "He ran real well and I was happy with him. We'll have, I think, a lot better chance in the Preakness with the tight turns, and utilize our speed a little bit." {LA Times] OK, well, besides him? Bob Baffert? The two plodders who finished 3rd and 4th can't really think they'd do any better in a shorter race, would they? (Though the prospect of a similar finish in the second leg could be enough) Showing Up was pretty impressive running 6th, but I don't imagine his (and Barbaro's) owners would want to ruin their own Triple Crown bid. (And did you know that Roy and Gretchen Jackson are also the breeders of the undefeated George Washington, who won the 2000 Guineas in England yesterday?? They sold him for $2.1 million.)

- When Bluegrass Cat came along to complete the exacta, I imagine that some viewers of The Works were pretty happy. Barbaro was clearly the star of the mini-series (and was picked by three of the four hosts), but Bluegrass Cat had also left a very favorable impression by way of his last couple of gallops, and he had drawn the attention of the boys, and even the Head Chef, who now knows who Barbaro is.

- I'll be back with more on the race, but I just have to mention the late money on Sweetnorthernsaint, who went off as the 5.50 to 1 favorite. I've never seen a horse get bet late like that in stakes races like he did yesterday and in the Illinois Derby. He gets bet down on last flashes as if it's the 6th from Monmouth on a Thursday. It was impressive enough in the Illinois race, but with all the money in the Derby pool, one can only imagine how much it took to do that. They lost, by the way.

- Speaking of George Washington, the 2000 Guineas was his three-year old debut. With Barbaro winning so dominantly with just that one little prep in three months, how long before somebody tries that here? Be back with much more on the Derby later. I may have to go to Belmont today to try to get back on track, handicapping wise. Having the last four finishers on my Derby tickets, two of them prominently, is the type of thing that merits getting right back on the horse. So to speak.

Welcome Barron's Readers

- If you’re coming via Barron’s, thanks for stopping by. If you’re looking for a winner in the Derby, I like Bob and John, but I’d strongly advise you to seek other opinions as well. I do pick a winner here once in a while, but I didn’t call it Left at the Gate because I consider myself an authority. I’m just trying to teach myself here, really. It's gratifying when I hear from readers who say they're learning along with me, and edifying when they are nice enough to take the time to comment or write in order to set me straight when necessary. And sometimes, I calmly express my opinion on things mostly related to horse racing. So thanks again for coming, and please also check out these other fine bloggers (and these too), all of whom share the kind of passion for our great game that only true track degenerates can. Enjoy.

The Pick 3 Hedge

- There’s a $500,000 guarantee on the Pick 3 that culminates in the Derby. The first leg looks like a single to me, so if I can narrow down my horses in the second leg, which is the Turf Classic, it’s a fairly cheap way to not only hedge against the Derby scenarios that you're not going to bet on but fear the most, but be in line for a nice payoff as well. For example, I won’t shudder upon the sight of Jazil passing horses in the stretch faster than gas prices passed $3 if I have a buck on him in that Pick 3. My regular readers know that I've been posting about this horse and his fabulous pedigree since his first win last December. I soured on him after the Fountain of Youth, when he was stone cold dead on the board and then on the track as well. His rally in the Wood remains a question mark, but I'll have at least a win saver on him in any case.

The other one giving me the chills is Sinister Minister. I was a little shaken by some quotes I read from Sharp Humor’s trainer Dale Romans on Friday.

"The key is that he is relaxed....If he is relaxed up close, he can win. If he gets too aggressive, we may be in trouble." [Bloodhorse]

Huh? RELAX? What happened to "I'm going!?" I thought he'd said:

”Sharp Humor's never run from off the pace. I don't see the need to change his style in the biggest race of his life. He just has to be faster than everyone else and keep going." [Washington Post]

He can't relax, he's GOT to go for the lead, we're all counting on that! Is he allowed to change that now? Well, there’s always Keyed Entry; I doubt that Valenzuela is going to let anyone get away uncontested even if he was planning to try and rate.

Anyway, about that Pick 3, the 8th is a Grade 1, the Humana Distaff at seven furlongs for fillies and mares, and Baffert has Behaving Badly (Pioneering), the 2-1 morning line favorite. She’s won four in a row by daylight, easily smashing the 100 Beyer mark each time. She simply looks like the fastest mare in the field hands down. The question about her, especially in the wake of Balance’s stunning flameout in the Oaks, is whether she can handle eastern tracks. Her one try was a disaster, but it was at Keeneland, which always carries the automatic excuse that did not excuse the Oaks favorite from defeat. So that is a question mark, but I think it’s well worth the shot to single her here.

I really like English Channel (Smart Strike) in the 9th, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, another Grade 1, this one at nine furlongs on the grass. He came on steadily as last year went on for Pletcher and then lost that tight decision to Shakespeare before failing in the Breeders Cup and going to the sidelines. In true Pletcher style, he returned to the races with a stakes win in March. The second and third finishers in that race, Silver Tree and Miesque's Approval, both went on to win stakes races, a Grade 2 in the case of the latter. English Channel was fully extended to win, so Pletcher has given him nearly two months off to recuperate. He moves outside to the nine post, but there’s no speed inside of him, and he should have no problem clearing the field well before the end of the long run to the first turn.

In fact, that could be a problem. He seems to run better with a target to run at, and I don’t think he’ll have one here. So this race is not a single, but I’m trying to limit it to three. I gotta use Gorella (Grape Tree Road), the tough four-year old filly taking on the boys. Her winning return to the races at Keeneland last month was very similar to her race there last fall that preceded her monster effort in the Breeders Cup Mile. And I’ll use Cacique (Danehill), ridiculously wide when rallying to miss by a neck in the Grade 1 Kilroe at Santa Anita.

I’d like to not use Milk It Mick, who actually won the Kilroe with a better trip, but disappointed as the 6-5 favorite in his last. I’m wavering on him, but I won’t use Silver Tree. Nice horse, but I think he’s a shade below the top three. He faced nothing like these horses in the turf stakes he won at Tampa last month.

And then the Derby. I’ll breathe a big sigh of relief if I get there alive and have the Jazil and Sinister Minister scenarios accounted for, as well as a shot for what should be a decent price with Bob and John and a couple of others. Whichever ones I’m fancying at the time.

- Feel free to email me with comments, questions, links, or whatever.

Notes - May 6

- The 2nd at Belmont on Friday was a two-year old race with all first-timers. Though Todd Pletcher had the morning line favorite with Out of Gwedda (Out of Place), it was Trip to the Bank who took the big money at 9-10 for Kiaran McLaughlin. But in this case, the hot money was the wrong money, as Pletcher’s horse beat the favorite decisively and paid $9 to boot. Trip to the Bank was six back in second, and ran a nice race; but even the most well-meant money can’t always prevent a buzzsaw from spoiling the plans. This horse has fascinating breeding; he’s by Trippi, and is intensely inbred to Valid Appeal 3x2. If he ever catches a wet track, he might swim the butterfly around the track. Trip to the Bank is a half-brother to stakes winner Rocky River, and this is the female family of Preakness winner Louis Quartorze; and hey, there’s only 14 days until that race.

Christophe Clement got beat a neck in a grass stakes run as the 3rd race, but then came back with two winners. His Hanging Curve won the race that Highland Cat didn’t get into, and from the manner and time in which he did so, Highland Cat would have had to improve tremendously to have competed. Clement took the 9th with the cleverly-named Rewrite (Editor’s Note – Fickle Friends), a NY-bred three-year old making her first turf start in her first race since October. Fickle Friends was graded stakes-placed on the grass, and she’s a half-sister to Volponi, the Breeders Cup Classic winner who was also an accomplished stakes horse on the turf. Volponi entered stud in 2004 with fee of $10,000, but was sold last December to the Korean Racing Association for what the former owner called a “significant offer."

- Not many people expect Todd Pletcher to be standing in the winner’s circle after the Derby, but he did so four times on Oaks day. Three of those winners were ridden by Garrett Gomez, who didn’t have much luck riding for the trainer at the end of the Keeneland meeting. In the first, the pair teamed up to score with Alotofappeal, a daughter of the aforementioned Trippi who is also inbred to Valid Appeal, in this case 3x3. And Pletcher took two stakes races, including the Grade 2 Louisville Breeders Cup Handicap with Oonagh Maccool (Giant’s Causeway), taking her third in a row since switching to the dirt from the grass, which is the surface she's really bred for. Last year’s Alabama winner Sweet Symphony disappointed in her second race of the year after a nice effort in her return.

Oaks Notes

- Well, I’m just as glad that I didn’t have the time this week to pay any attention to the Oaks, because I certainly wouldn’t have had this one (though reader Byanose did!) (at least, he’s alive in the Oaks-Derby double!) Those who favor Polytrack can use Lemons Forever as an example of a horse able to run on both surfaces, though she’s certainly faster on the real dirt. Lemons Forever is a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, and she’s the first Grade 1 winner for the sire, whose third crop is two this year. Lemon Drop Kid had just four stakes winners coming into this year, and his stud fee took a big drop in 2006, from $50,000 to $20,000. This was his second stakes winner of this year, with the other being the G3 Golden Gate Fields Handicap winner Cosmonaut. Avalyn Hunter has more on Lemons Forever’s pedigree here.

If you go to this page, you can watch two of Lemon Drop Kid’s seven graded stakes wins, a total which includes the 1999 Belmont and Travers. These races are from his four-year old season. In the Whitney, you see him out game Cat Thief, who entered stud duty the same year as Lemon Drop Kid, and has been a disappointment at stud himself. Cat Thief had no stakes winners coming into this year (in which he’s had two), and his fee, which was already down from $35 to $25K, was further reduced this year to $10,000 – Stands and Nurses.

The other race on the page is the 2000 Suburban, and this one serves as a reminder of what a nice racehorse Lemon Drop Kid was. Talk about a horse visibly accelerating through the stretch, you see him just rocket away from Behrens once asked by Edgar Prado,

Balance ran 11th at 8-5 with no apparent excuse, or at least none that we’ve heard as of yet. As Walter pointed out, it’s a cautionary tale about the workouts when considering the Derby, given the accolades that Balance’s last breeze received. Victor Espinoza was described as "giddy" after the workout. I haven't seen any description of Espinoza after the race, but it's likely down a notch or two.

The winning filly was dead last; I mean dead last. She wasn’t even in the picture until well after they passed the half mile pole. She was flying wide around the turn, but not picked up by the race caller until deep stretch. Some people are hoping that Saturday’s feature race at Churchill goes the same way.

Say What?

- I know that the White House has already settled on Tony Snow to be their new press secretary, but perhaps they should consider Steve Haskin as an expert in talking out of both sides of his mouth. I read his Derby analysis, and I still don’t really know who he likes. He’s going to have a saver on Private Vow; he likes AP Warrior, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Laywer Ron in an exacta box. But he’ll also box Bob and John, AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Sinister Minister. He said that Jazil is worth a win wager. As is Bob and John if he’s over 10 or 12-1 (I think he will be). He tabs AP Warrior for the betting angle, and then concedes that he may be overbet. He likes Barbaro and SNS for their workouts, and Lawyer Ron because he knows how to win. Then he says that SNS is the one horse who is dominant in works and in the handicapping angle. And then, he concludes with what is basically a disclaimer saying that none of this might mean anything because Sinister Minister might just run away with the race.

This is a man who has just spent FAR too much time on this, and it shows. He's a nice guy I'm sure, but he's downright delirious! I just hope he can chill and relax a little and enjoy the race. After all, he'll have a bet on half the field!

As far as Sin Min goes, wouldn’t it be a riot if he does indeed run away with this race? Imagine all the sweat and tears that we’ve all gone into handicapping and betting this thing going down the drain. There were rumors about his soundness earlier in the week, and Baffert admitted today that he had popped an abscess in a foot last Tuesday.

"But everything's OK now. He's back on it now. Man, is he back on it."

The high-strung Sinister Minister had been on the muscle for his gallop and appears ready - and then some - for his Derby ramble, where he is expected to either set the pace or be among the leaders. [Bloodhorse]

One thing I must say – I do respect everyone’s opinion on who they like in the race; there are no “wrong” opinions (except maybe mine). Steve Klein in the Form picks Sin Min to win. I disagree, but that's fine. But he also claims flatly that there was “no speed bias” at Keeneland the day of the Blue Grass, and I would say that that’s just a bunch of baloney that's not worth the paper it's written on. And I’m not even going to waste my time explaining why, again.

- Last year’s two-year old filly champ Folklore has been retired due to a fractured knee. One of her rivals last year was Pletcher’s Adieu (El Corredor), who had beaten the champ twice before running poorly in the Juvenile Fillies. Adieu makes her first start since that race tomorrow in the 7 1/2 furlong G3 La Troienne on the Derby undercard. We know how Pletcher can bring these horses back off layoffs, and she seems to stack up well against this field. One filly who does look tough though is Darley Stable’s Beholden (Cat Thief). She was a $700K two-year old in training purchase who has never run poorly, and put it all together in her last race when rated for the first time; she came on to win at the Gulf despite being four wide. Sweet Belle was up the track against Balance in the SA Oaks, but had shown fine form in her three starts up until then.

Man, there’s a lot of racing tomorrow around the country; but why? Wouldn’t it be cool if the only racing was at Churchill, and the other tracks just threw Derby parties? There’s a million dollar pick 4 and a pick 3 for a half million tomorrow; but if everyone was betting only on the Churchill races, imagine how big those pools could be.

Again?

- As I asked last year, what the hell is this asshole doing here?

- Some people think that Keeneland’s decision to install Polytrack could be a boon to Oaklawn, and that track’s Arkansas Derby next year. With the Blue Grass to be run over the synthetic surface, contenders could decide they want to run on real dirt, especially after seeing how With A City and Seaside Retreat ran after running 1-2 in the Lane’s End at Turfway. Lawyer Ron’s trainer Bob Holthus is one who, for sure wouldn’t be prepping his horses in that manner .

“ If you had a real contender, would you want your last start before the [Kentucky ] Derby to be on Polytrack ? I can’t imagine you would…I just don’t believe you can train on Polytrack and come and run well on the dirt….I know that the horses that came to Oaklawn this year that had raced at Turfway in the winter had very little success. You know, I believe there’s a complete difference in the surfaces.” [Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]

Highland Cat Scratched

Damn! We couldn't get one scratch out of 12 horses? Well, the post position would have sucked anyway, so perhaps it's for the best. (Damn!)

Derby Notes - The Day Before...

- Y’know how sometimes you look back at the pp’s after the race, and you lament “if I had only played the top Beyer horses...” Sometimes you can make things more complicated than they seem. I’m not saying that that's the case for this Derby, but if you do look at the race strictly from a Beyers standpoint, it’s an easy race to figure. Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Brother Derek’s last race figs stand pretty much head and shoulders over the rest of the field, and what do you think that triple box would pay for a buck? Not bad, I would guess. You can be sure that Andy Beyer, who didn’t pick any of those in his top three picks, would be kicking himself over that one. Beyer picked AP Warrior (who is the top choice in the Form’s consensus box….he is going to be an underlay), Barbaro, and Point Determined, with Sweetnorthernsaint in 4th.

- Mike Trombetta has been writing a column in the NY Post this week, and he responds to the concerns we’ve been hearing about Sweetnorthernsaint this week.

When we sent him out around 7 o'clock [Wednesday], the track was very chopped up and it had rained. When that track is flipped over and it's wet and moist like that, it kicks up and doesn't smooth back down. It's a rough surface. Sweetnorthernsaint trained OK on it. I don't think he was particularly enthused by it, but he got around there, did his job and came back home uneventfully.

Then somebody on TVG, I don't even know who, in their eyes and wisdom over there, decided the horse wasn't doing well all of a sudden. So be it. Everybody's got an opinion.

The boss (Ted Theos, Sweetnorthernsaint's co-owner) happened to be watching TVG. He gave me a call; he was concerned, but we're not. Sweetnorthernsaint is doing good. My exercise rider (Ernesto Ferdinand) says he feels great. If he's happy, I'm happy. [NY Post]

So, there you go. That’s about as “from the horse’s mouth” on the subject as we’re going to get. My guess is that the horse is fine.

- Barbaro gets the nod from Tom Amoss, Gary Stevens, and, for what it’s worth, Todd Schrrmmpff; while Frank Lyons sticks with Point Determined, who may be an underlay as well; more on that below. Barbaro, indeed, seemed like the most impressive to watch on the show during the week. Last year, that award went to Bandini, who finished 19th. I’m just pointing out the facts there, not trying to make a point about Barbaro, who I will be using for sure, just not on top. I still think he could be the favorite at post time. If he wins, he’ll change a lot of perceptions about how one must prepare a horse for the Kentucky Derby, that’s for sure; remember, he’s raced just once in the last 13 weeks, and just five times overall. We could have a lot of short fields for next year’s preps if he does indeed remain undefeated.

- Bluegrass Cat has looked really nice galloping the last two days, catching the attention of the boys on The Works. If you grant him the “lost shoe” excuse in the Tampa Bay Derby and the “Keeneland” excuse in the Blue Grass, he could be worth using at 30-1.

- Baffert seemed really upset that Keyed Entry landed inside of Sinister Minister, expecting Valenzuela to make life miserable for his speedball from the inside. Angel Cordero said of Keyed Entry: "Bold Forbes and Keyed Entry, they're the strongest two I've worked." [DRF, sub. only] He added, "In the afternoon, he's a little more relaxed than in the morning….But he wants to go." Yeah, I’m really in the minority on this one, I know, and perhaps I should downgrade him. But I just can’t help but recall his rating in the Gotham behind the slow pace set by Like Now. Yes, if Valenzuela doesn’t go with Sin Min, he’ll be buried on the inside. But so what? We’re not talking about a closer who would then have to find room. He’d be on the rail close behind two horses hell-bent for the lead as the rest jockey for position on the outside, and he'd be in the best position to sneak through when the leaders tire. And while there’s little to indicate he’d be able to hold off the closers, having the lead turning for home isn’t a bad position to be in given what can transpire in a 20-horse field. So I’m leaving him in there, what the hell. The worst I can be is wrong.

- Patrick at Pulling Hair and Betting Horses lays out the whole scenario for the mile and a quarter, and while I don’t go along with all of his picks, I will agree with his prediction that Tom Durkin has 3 veins popping out of his head as they come through the stretch. Cause to Believe is finding a lot of support in our little blogosphere, between Patrick, John at The Race Is Not Always to the Swift.., and, of course, Walter. Not so in the Form, where he hits just one of the selection boxes, and where Jay Privman notes: This is my 25th straight Derby. Thought his last work was one of the worst Derby works I have seen. Five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 (18/49) breezing doesn’t look so bad on paper anyway, does it? But how can the work be labeled “breezing” if the rider was pushing and whipping him? Still, if he’s anywhere near 50-1, I agree he has to be on the tickets.

- Point Determined is another who may be an underlay at post time; he’s picking up a lot of support besides Patrick. On ESPN.com, Bill Finley and Ed McNamara have him right on top, while Jay Cronley picks him second behind Barbaro. Haskin has him amongst his top four (with SNS, AP Warrior, and Bob and John), at least during his chat session yesterday. Someone named Saratoga Slim likes him too. And this guy.

- Jay Cronley’s knock on Bob and John? “Owner passed on Reggie Bush.”

Highland Cat an AE

- We need just one horse to scratch for Highland Cat to get into Friday’s sixth; and with 12 horses in the main body, you have to think we have a shot. To get into the race, that is. According to A Closer Look, Tactical Cat gets 12% first time turf winners; not bad. It goes on to say that HIghland Cat raises more questions than answers. But we all know that the vet has been around to work on his hocks, and that he’s feeling better. At least according to his trainer. The outside post won’t help out of the Widener chute; but a lot of us think that the turf will.

The main contenders as far as turf form goes looks to be Hanging Curve (Grand Slam), a $300,000 yearling in for a tag (45K) for the first time off decent thirds; he looks like the speed. Mister Zee (Mr. Greeley) has some very decent grass lines from last fall against maiden specials and even a restricted stakes. We should find out around 11 whether Highland Cat is in or out.

- Frankel alert: Rathor (Machiavellian) is now two-for-two since coning from the UK. His first was a sprint with a 95 Beyer, and in Thursday’s 4th at Belmont, he stretched out and won at 4-5, getting the mile and a sixteenth in 1:41 1/5, and beating Mayan King by three. In the 5th, High Finance (Talk Is Money) showed that his 9 length win at Keeneland was no fluke, and won off by five in 1:34 4/5; final quarter in 24 flat. Talk Is Money is by Deputy Minister. High Finance is out of a Conquistador Cielo mare who is a half to graded winner Five Star Day.

Just Precision (Stormin Fever) was way live on the board as the 5-2 favorite in the 6th a maiden sprint; she was 5-1 third choice in the morning line making her first start since September for Bill Mott. She nosed out the other hot horse, Kiaran McLaughlin’s first timer Roshani (Fantastic Light); 6-1 morning line, 5-2 second choice. What a great game. Roshani is out of a Deputy Minister mare who is a half to the dam of those turf-loving sisters Dynamist and Dyna’s Destiny. [EDIT: By turf champion Fantastic Light, just wait until this one gets on the turf!] McLaughlin made amends in the 7th with Capote’s Crown, a horse who seems to really like Belmont. In that race, Noblewoman was a beaten favorite at 7-10 for Darley; classic case of a horse getting overbet off a maiden win.

Second Thoughts, Part 1

- It doesn’t take much to get me wavering on picks. It took me about six hours to have second thoughts. I’m not that secure of a person when it comes to handicapping, and can be easily persuaded, like a GOP incumbent hearing Karl Rove whispering sweet nothings. Walter makes a good case for Cause to Believe, and Dr. Fager thinks the Wood was a bad race, and I’m ready to put a big -------------------------------- mark through the whole thing.

In any event, I have to actually agree that at 50-1, yes, absolutely, Cause To Believe is the best value in the race. Those odds are surprsing; is that to mean that he’s no better than Seaside Retreat, Flashy Bull, and Storm Treasure? (Deputy Glitters may also be a bit high at 50-1; one could make the case that his two races run around two turns on dry tracks make him a contender.) I really don't think he'll go off anywhere near there. His pp lines sure are impressive looking if you disregard his last on the grounds that the pace scenario was against him. I mean, he had closed off a 1:09 six furlongs in his prior race, and the Illinois Derby went in 1:13! His figs also show a nice pattern of improvement up to that race. Still question who he's beaten, and one could argue that, between the Illinois Derby and that workout, he could be tailing off after what's been a long campaign. But I'm taking another look.

Caught up on yesterday’s The Works and saw the suspect gallops by Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined. SNS didn’t look good at all, and the boys were all disappointed. Point Determined didn’t look great either, but they weren’t concerned about him, attributing it to his reputed laziness. Bob and John looked fantastic, with Garrett Gomez virtually motionless aboard. Even Frank Lyons, who earlier in the week said he liked Point Determined, now said that he had to rate this one as best of Baffert’s trio.

I’ll just have to agree to disagree with those who are downgrading Bob and John because of his finish in the Wood; though I certainly appreciate the opinions of those who would oppose horses coming out of a race with closing fractions like that. I guess that’s what makes our sport what it is. Some can look at that race and see a bunch of horses falling flat on their faces. I look at and see a horse responding to new and difficult circumstances, showing great competitive spirit tracking and wearing down a talented and stubborn foe (I also probably think higher of Keyed Entry than many others....but more on him in a second), getting tired but gaining conditioning and experience. Also note that he practically pulled himself up towards the finish, which wouldn't be a good thing to do on Saturday if he's lucky enough to be in that same position. I think he’s a horse coming up to the best race of his life. Whether that’s good enough to win, we’ll see.

As for Keyed Entry, watching him on the track today and when he worked out last Saturday, he does not look like the horse that we saw sit off a slow pace in the Gotham. It’s just hard for me to imagine that Pletcher would instruct Valenzuela to engage the two speed maniacs, the trainers of each having sworn to run the other into the ground. I can't imagine he thinks he could outrun them, and you'd think he'd want him to run like he did in the Gotham, at least early on. But then, why did he engage Valenzuela? May have to take a second look here too.

Derby Picks

- I was going to try and make this short and sweet given how many words I, and everyone else, have already written about this race that will all be over in a little over two minutes. I failed miserably in that regard. I did try though.

- The winning connections of the Kentucky Derby, and perhaps the horse too if he’s feeling up to it, will party afterwards at the Kentucky Derby Museum, and a former PR person of the museum told MSNBC.com: “We like it when Baffert wins.”

I think they’ll be very happy this year. I like both of Baffert’s horses – the ones, that is, that won’t be committing pace suicide on the front end. I’ve been going back and forth between the two, but have settled on Bob and John as my selection to win the roses in 2006. I give him the edge based on the traditional Derby handicapping factor of his having a solid two-year old campaign. Point Determined did debut on December 26, when he ran third. But the idea of the two-year old “rule” is that a horse has built up experience and foundation as a juvenile, and Point Determined qualifies, really, only technically.

Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) raced five times last year, and improved his Beyer figure each and every time up through his third to Brother Derek (and Your Tent or Mine, remember him?) in the Hollywood Futurity. The colt has raced four times in 2006 since then, and though he peaked Beyer-wise three races back with his 102 in the Sham, I think that the numbers since then don’t fully tell the story.

Nick came through with some interesting stats on the Beyers.

Horses with back to back 100 plus Beyers have won 8 of the last 14 Derbys. …..That stat is from 60 starters (in 14 Derbys) that meet the criteria. 184 Starters didnt meet the standard, that produced 6 winners. So 25% of the starters that meet the criteria have produced 57% of the winners in the last 14 years. It took 184 starters that dont meet the standard to produce 43% of the winners. Interesting stat.

Indeed. Bob and John earned only a 97 in the San Felipe and a 99 in the Wood, but I would argue that he had excuses in both and, more importantly, gained valuable experience and fitness from those races. In the San Felipe, he had a very bad break, and was solidly second to last. He angled towards the rail and took dirt in the face. He had been racing close to the pace in his prior starts, but still settled in, picked up horses nicely around the turn, and swung five wide around eventual winner AP Warrior. He hung a bit in the stretch, but still was game to hang onto third, as Point Determined, benefiting from a more ground-saving trip, rallied for place.

The Wood is the race that is causing many to throw him out, but it’s a big reason why I like him. My experience with sloppy tracks at Aqueduct is that though they may be glib at first, as the day wears on it can be very tiring. The Wood was the only two-turn race of the day, and there’s no doubt that Bob and John and Keyed Entry labored home. (By the way, Ray Kerrison was right and I was wrong…it did take Bob and John a tick over 40 seconds for the last three furlongs). But remember, for Bob and John, it was his first race outside of California and his first on a track anything but fast. I loved Keyed Entry that day, and was extremely impressed that Bob and John was able, under those conditions, to track him on the lead, and then finally put him away after a tough stretch battle. Yeah, he tired, and switched to the wrong lead, but he was entitled to tire, and if his near flawless workouts and gallops since then are any indication, he benefited greatly fitness-wise from the experience.

No Derby horse is getting better reviews for his appearance and demeanor at Churchill, after his impressive six furlong work at Santa Anita. The Form's Mike Welsch, in his final impressions of all the horses today, said of Bob and John:

Have really liked what we've seen of him in his two gallops since arriving from the west coast on Tuesday and a tape of his final work in California over the weekend. Should be sitting on another big effort.

The common wisdom is that we’ll see another closer from the clouds, and the fact that so many are anticipating that is all the more reason to be a bit contrarian. Bob and John is not a dead closer; in fact, if anything, a look at his PP lines would indicate that he could get mixed up with all the pressers behind the fast pace. However, the colt has been able to sit off paces that are very slow for California, and I'm hoping that he’ll be able to sit in the 3rd tier or so, and grind away until the finish. His breeding is totally classic – as I’ve posted several times before:

Bob and John is a blue-blooded Stonerside homebred, by Seeking the Gold out of graded stakes winner Minister’s Melody (Deputy Minister), and a half-brother to 2005 NY stakes winner Connie Belle. Bob and John’s third dam is Too Bald, the dam of Exceller, Capote, and Baldski.

Plus, he should be a good price. Those last two figs don’t look great on paper, and there’s been a lot of ridicule about the way he finished up in the Wood. I think he may be higher than Point Determined and perhaps AP Warrior too.

I was going to rate Point Determined (Point Given) just below my top selection, but the comments about him by Welsch and others are making me nervous. Welsch kept a particular eye on him today and reported that he failed to switch leads through the stretch, and that he’s been on the sluggish side during his first two gallops since flying in from the west coast on Tuesday. I’ll keep an eye on that; perhaps he's just distracted by the Yum! signs. But you gotta love the way he’s come around this year, and he had little shot against Brother Derek in the SA Derby given the pace. He’s another one who actually stays closer to the pace than you’d think from what’s been written, but with the requisite racing luck, could also be the type to persist until the end.

I think AP Warrior (AP Indy) will be bet lower than his 15-1 morning line odds. He’s been attracting a lot of attention, and has that John Sherriffs thang going on (though do you really think he can win two Derbys in a row?). He’s also two-for-two against Bob and John. AP Warrior was tough and game in the San Felipe, and I think his SA Derby was more of a training exercise than anything else. Has the speed to stay within striking distance and could make his $1.3 million price tag pay off with a big finish.

I think that if there’s a bombshell, rather than an out-of-the-clouds closer, it could be Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory). Yeah, he didn't really have a two-year old campaign either, but he still owns the highest Beyer fig in the field other than Sinister Minister, and I liked his Gotham more than most. If you can excuse his tiring in the mud in the Wood, he rates an upset chance. Breaking from the three post with two plodders inside, he could enjoy a cozy trip behind the speed if he can relax as he did in the Gotham.

I had Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint) rated higher, but all these negative reports are making me uneasy. Welsch on his appearance today:

Sweetnorthernsaint appeared to go a little better Thursday although was still not striding out with the same extension observed prior to Saturday's work….Thinking he might be a bit over the top coming off that fast Illinois Derby win but still a major if he can duplicate his previous performance.

I think he’s the one out of the apparent speed/pressers that could be best able to sit far enough away from the pace to get burned, he finishes well, and his Illinois Derby Beyer is second only to Sinister Minister around two turns.

Barbaro (Dynaformer) has been right on top of fast paces on dirt and grass, and his ability to come from further behind than that is in question. But undefeated is undefeated.

Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) is as tough as they come. Only Barbaro was able to look him in the eye and pass him, and that was in Sharp Humor’s first two turn race. Watch out if Sinister Minister gets left and he opens up a lead.

What can you say about Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr); he’s dominated six times in a row since switching to dirt, and has been making an awesome appearance on the track. His outside post may help him avoid the kind of scenario that caused him to rush to the lead early in the Arkansas Derby. But it may not. Remember, it took him 40 2/5 seconds to get home in that race, and he’ll have to do a better job of conserving his energy until the end.

Cause to Believe (Maria's Mon) was taken out of his game in the Illinois Derby; with a faster pace to shoot at, he could get a piece. But his workout on Saturday was not visually impressive, and Welsch notes that he tired so badly at the end he did not even receive a gallop out time. That doesn't sound good. Consider also that he hasn't faced the best horses, and I give him a borderline shot to hit the board.

I don’t know if Brother Derek (Benchmark) will even end up being the favorite, so many are taking a stand against him. He could end up being one of those pre-race favorites that actually becomes a wise-guy bet at a decent price. But he just doesn’t seem to fit here, given his running style. He’s a speed horse who’s not fast enough to keep up with the speed he’ll see here.

I’ve been following Jazil (Seeking the Gold) for awhile, and man, he has classic breeding for this. I think he’ll be the one to pick up some pieces if the common wisdom is correct.

Steppenwolfer (Aptitude) is consistent but seems too slow. Sinister Minister is going to tire from his early efforts. If he doesn’t, I’m going to tire from ripping up my tickets. Showing Up (Strategic Mission) is a great looking young horse, but has only three lifetime races, all this year.

I’ll play Bob and John on top with Point Determined, AP Warrior, Keyed Entry, and Sweetnorthernsaint (depending on further developments), and use Barbaro, Sharp Humor, and Jazil in the third spot. (As of now, anyway.)

If anyone would like to email their selections, I'll put up a post with your opinions.

Sweetnorthernsaint Going South?

- I'm seeing other negative reports besides Nick’s on Sweetnorthernsaint. I haven’t yet seen yesterday’s version of The Works, but Kentucky Joe related that Gary Stevens spoke about how Sweetnorthernsaint's hind legs look "stiff." Mike Welsch in the Form wrote:

Sweetnorthernsaint also looked particularly rough throughout most of his 1 1/4-mile gallop, his strides short and choppy, in contrast to the way he had moved so fluently during several excellent training sessions leading up to last Saturday's five-furlong work. He also didn't appear to travel as fluidly on Tuesday morning as he had earlier, albeit over a wet and uneven surface. He still has a couple of days to get back on the right track, but these observations are cause for at least some concern for Sweetnorthernsaint's ever-growing legion of supporters.

Well? Too much information? Or important visual clues? There was a time before the internets and TVG that we wouldn’t have even known this kind of stuff. I do remember that Swale had a slow final workout in 1983 that got a lot of press, and some discounted his chances based on that; he won the Derby ($8.80), and since then I’ve tried to inure myself to this kind of stuff. As Nick pointed out, “this could be significant or it may [be] the way he always looks after he works a 1:11 6F.” I’ve already decided that I would not use him on top, but I’ll probably retain him on the bottom of tickets. For now, anyway. We still have one more edition of The Works to check out.

- Welsch also raised some questions about Point Determined, saying he did not have the "same energy level" as Bob and John. His action would best be described as sloppy, and he also failed to change leads down the stretch or around the clubhouse turn. Baffert doesn’t seem too concerned.

"Point Determined is coming up to the race in perfect shape. He reminds me so much of his grandfather (Thunder Gulch, the 1995 Derby winner)." [NY Post]

I think that Point Determined is one of the horses that could be bet lower than we expect, and therefore not present value in the win spot. He seems to be getting a lot of support.

- If I was to make a hunch bet on the race, it would be on Steppenwolfer. He’s named after the 60’s band Steppenwolf, and they were the first band I ever saw live in concert.

"His dam's name is Wolfer and being children of the '60s, we went for Steppenwolf and didn't get it," said Robert Low, who owns Arkansas Derby runner-up Steppenwolfer with his wife, Lawana. "We got a very nice letter from (lead singer) John Kay and his manager wishing us good luck in the Derby and they said they'd be cheering for their near-namesake."

The Jockey Club didn't give the Lows any reason why the name Steppenwolf was rejected. [NY Daily News]

Thursday Morning Notes - May 4

- Running Dog, 6-1 morning line, had never been on the turf and his only win was at six furlongs. That didn’t stop him from getting bet down to a flat 3-1 in a mile and an eighth grass affair in the first race of the Belmont meet, and rallying to win for trainer James Jerkins, the first of his three wins on the day. And they’re off at Belmont! This gelding is by NY stallion A.P Jet, who was critically injured in the freak accident that killed Gold Token.

"Yesterday morning, A. P Jet was being turned out into his paddock. He reared up at the gate and got loose from his handler. He galloped over to Gold Token's paddock. Gold Token came through the fence to get at him. They started fighting and took off galloping beside the paddocks. Gold Token hit a tree and dropped dead. A. P Jet is at a New York clinic and is currently in serious condition." [Bloodhorse]

Hmm, this pedigree of Running Dog's seems familiar; I must have written about it before. Oh yeah, here, in this very long post. In fact I bet on him in his debut, and wrote that I’d put him on my watch list. Fortunately, I didn’t, because he lost his next six races at prices ranging from 6-5 to 9-2.

Running Dog is by A.P Jet out of stakes winner and millionaire Clabber Girl, and a closer look at this unconventional pedigree reveals that he has Fappiano as his grandsire, and his granddam is Jedina, a stakes winning half-sister to Fappiano! This is also the female family of Commendable and Keeper Hill.

Jerkins took the one mile G3 Westchester with Sir Greeley, who lost heartbreakers in his last two, including his neck defeat to Bishop Court Hill in the Carter. Love of Money was live on the board at 3-1, and opened up about ten in 44 3/5 in his first race in nearly a year; but succumbed late.

Star Dabbler (Saint Ballado) looks like a nice three-year old that is improving with distance for trainer Michael Hushion; stretching out to a mile, he won the sixth by seven in a handy 1:35 to graduate in his third start. He’s out of Meadow Silk, a stakes-winning Meadowlake mare whose name is more suggestive of a harness horse. Meadow Silk is a half to Silken Cat, the stakes-winning dam of champion sprinter Speightstown. Star Dabbler’s second dam, by Chieftain, is a half to the Grade 1 turf winner Turk Passer. And through the magic of Google, we learn that it was on Turk Passer that John Velazquez got his first-evert Grade 1 win in the 1994 Turf Classic at Belmont.

- Reader Nick had some very interesting observations on some of the Derby contenders, including cautionary notes on two of the horses I like.

Sweetnorthernsaint looked off behind, stabbing and up under himself a little in a morning jog. Now this could be significant or it may the way he always looks after he works a 1:11 6F

Point Determined is not good in the turns, he needs to be closer than most going into the last turn to make up any ground in the stretch.

Nick also has some very interesting and positive statistics on the Derby record of horses that come into the race with “back to back 100 plus Beyers” in their last two races. I’ll come back to that later when I pick one of the horses who doesn’t qualify.

Useful Links

- A couple of resources you may find useful, or just plain interesting. If you have a problem with the Cal Racing site, the Kentucky Derby site offers this page with video replays of all the preps. And this page at the Racing Form shows you a breakdown of which races Derby winners have used as preps. Of more interest to me were the links towards the top of the page showing the lifetime past performances of Derby victors going back to 1993. It’s interesting to see how and where these horses ran not only before winning the big race, but afterwards too.

Is (Almost) Everybody Happy?

- It doesn’t seem like anyone should be too upset about their post position, except perhaps for Dan Hendricks. While he tried to put the best face on it - "We want to be out where it's a little clearer.....We would have to send him a little from the inside" – I’m sure he didn’t want to be that far out. He’s certainly isn’t going to win in the manner of Gato del Sol, the last horse to win from that post [a fact that means nothing without examining the occupants of the #18 stall since then]; the 1982 Derby winner came from dead last. (Looking back at that field, you could certainly say that was a pretty forgettable crop.] Brother Derek will have to be maneuvered to not lose too much ground on the first turn.

Jazil and Steppenwolfer, who drew the sometimes-dreaded inside posts, aren’t going anywhere anyway, so they might as well save some ground. They’re going to need a big rally and a solemn prayer to get through the traffic no matter where they’re coming from. Keyed Entry could be able to sit in the garden spot behind Sinister Minister and Sharp Humor, both positioned nicely towards the inside. I’m not counting Keyed Entry out as far as the minor awards go. Point Determined, Bob and John, AP Warrior, Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro....most of the other horses I still care about, drew between 5 and 11. Lawyer Ron should be more comfortable on the outside at 17, not bogged down between horses. As Holthus said, "There is a lot speed to the inside of us and if we can follow somebody we will be in good shape." [Bloodhorse] And Cause to Believe doesn’t want to be as far back as the two inside horses, so he should be OK from the outside too. So, is everybody (other than Brother Derek) happy?

Also Eligible

- Well, Highland Cat is, like Sunriver, on the outside looking in to the sixth at Belmont on Friday; stuck on the also eligible list, damn! He’s the only one, so he’ll need a scratch to get in. Meanwhile, Castle Village is a-blazing! Introspect, who hadn’t won a race since gas was under $2 a gallon, took the 3rd there on Opening Day today at 6-1, nosing out Dutrow’s Dark Cheetah, and leaving last year's one-time Derby hopeful Galloping Grocer in the dust. Introspect is in the picture that accompanies the Barron's article; all signs are pointing to a WIN for Highland Cat! He's gotta get in!

- Ray Kerrison of the NY Post takes a look at past Derby winners, and how they finished up in their final Derby preps.

Giacomo, the 50-1 winner last year, ran his three-eighths prep in 37.48. Smarty Jones did it in 37.7, Funny Cide in 37.41, War Emblem 36.4, Monarchos in 37.1, etc.

This handicapping concept could have enormous repercussions on Saturday for this reason - two of the hottest betting prospects in the Derby came home like snails in their preps.

They are - hold your breath - Lawyer Ron and Bob and John, both of whom took 40.2 seconds to cover the last three-eighths of their preps in the Arkansas Derby and Wood Memorial, respectively.

For one thing, he’s wrong about Bob and John. That was the final fractions of the race, but Bob and John did break the 40 second mark. OK, still nothing to write home about, but I’m going to excuse it due to the track conditions; I’ll discuss this more when I do my final picks. Kerrison also points out that Jazil finished the Wood in 36 4/5, but neglects to mention that he hardly ran at all the first three-quarters. I’ll get the exact numbers when the Derby is accessible on Formulator.

- Haskin reports today that:

Flashy Bull looked excellent and has a beautiful way of moving. Bluegrass Cat was a handful, wanting to get it on and fighting his rider throughout his gallop. [Bloodhorse]

There’s some useful information for you! Do you like them now?

- Brass Hat’s disqualification from second place in the Dubai World Cup for a drug violation cost the owners $1.2 million; but according to the Thoroughbred Times, the money goes to winner Electrocutionist, and not to the now-official runner-up Wilko. Can’t say I understand that. And Bill Johnson, the attorney for Brass Hat’s trainer Buff Bradley, doesn’t understand the ruling.

Johnson said Bradley followed a withdrawal guideline that he received from Dubai racing officials of administering the medication at least 23 days before the race.

"Buff administered it 28 days before the race to be sure that he'd comply with the [guideline]," Johnson said. "When it showed up in the horse after the race, the stewards said 'Oh, well, we're aware of that document and we know it's put out, but it's not a part of our official regulations.'

"I said 'Well, why in the hell do you put it out and put on there that it's okay to administer the drug if you all are not going to allow it?' They did not have an answer." [Thoroughbred Times]

Bradley and Johnson will, obviously, appeal.

Strong Hand for Baffert

- Caught Point Determined’s workout from Sunday, and wow, he looked fantastic. Five furlongs in :59 4/5, and Victor Espinoza never moved a muscle. The boys on The Works contrasted it with his prior workout, in which he needed a little encouragement to engage and pass his workmate (Da Stoops, who won his state-bred stakes at a mile and an eighth last weekend). This time, he seemed eager, and was pulling Espinoza with no urging whatsoever.

Bob and John was pushed a little harder towards the finish by Garrett Gomez en route to his six furlongs in 1:11 2/5. Baffert said afterwards that it was best work the colt has had. Though I’m not yet sure exactly in what order, Baffert’s pair will both figure quite prominently on my tickets on Derby Day.

- As Walter noted, Andy Beyer said in his chat last night that he’s throwing out Brother Derek, and as I replied, I don’t really recall reading anyone that seems to really like him, at least from a betting standpoint. Watchmaker's comment about him in the Form’s latest Derby Watch is: Getting the feeling that people are jumping off his bandwagon. That seems like almost as much of an understatement as to say that people are jumping off the Bush bandwagon. (If approval ratings were Beyer figs, the president wouldn’t be able to compete in a mule race run over glue traps.)

Not only do I see people standing against the horse, but some are doing so derisively as well. Jay Cronley noted that he faced only ‘four and a half’ opponents in the SA Derby. Bill Handleman said that he will be facing more horses in the Derby than he faced in all three of his 3-year-old races combined. Tom Amoss and Frank Lyons on TVG have both counted him out. I could be wrong, but I don’t really expect to see him on top of too many selection boxes in the next couple of days. Do you really expect to see Steven Crist come out touting him? Besides field size, I’m seeing questions about his ability to handle the faster pace scenario; his ability to rate and if he can finish even if he does; now even his workouts are coming into question.

So I’m starting to seriously wonder if he’s even going to be the favorite in this race. You do sometimes see some unexpected developments on the tote board for the Derby, especially in the early wagering, and particularly in a 20 horse field. Look for Brother Derek to start out higher than expected in the early wagering – I wouldn’t be surprised if you see him as high as 6-1 early on, and for some horses, I think AP Warrior in particular, to be far below the big prices that some are counting on. I wouldn’t be surprised to see AP Warrior start out as one of the top four choices. Things will even out as the money starts to flow in, but now, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Barbaro or Lawyer Ron end up being the post-time favorite.

- Negotiations are reportedly underway on a purchase of Lawyer Ron. Wow, that’s quite a gamble for both sides, obviously. If his owner is as confident as his trainer, you’d think that he’s demanding a premium price. Hmmm, makes you wonder, if it’s really true that they’re entertaining offers. If he wins the Derby, it’s hard to even put a price tag on what the horse is worth. It’s kinda like buying a stock the day before its earnings come out, but the stakes here are much higher.

- Post position draw today at 5 PM. Kentucky Joe at the Blinkers Off blog has all the vital statistics.

- Don’t miss Steven Crist’s fascinating account of the evolution of past performances in today’s Form, complete with downloadable past performance lines from the 1906 and 1931 Derbys (which, as primitive as they look now, still seem to provide more information than what you see today in Europe). He modestly refers to the innovations adapted in the ‘90s from the “short-lived” Racing Times without noting that it was he that was responsible for that publication, which, really, revolutionized all of our handicapping lives. But perhaps the most telling part of the article is this:

While additional information has made handicapping the Derby a more complex and perhaps entertaining exercise, it should be noted that it has not particularly improved the public's success at divining the winner. Favorites won 12 of the 25 Derbies from 1906 through 1930; 9 of the 25 from 1931 through 1955; 11 of the 25 from 1956 through 1980; and only 2 of the 25 since then.

Perhaps the Europeans have the right idea.

Breeders Cup Still Falls Short

- Breeders’ Cup officials announced an increase in the total purses to $20 million. That’s up from $14 million, but still a million short of Dubai for the richest single day in the sport. If they increased the purses that much – a 43% increase – wouldn’t you think they could scrape up another million or two to match Dubai? Seems kinda like Barry Bonds getting to 754 homers and then going, “ah, that’s enough.” The Classic will now be worth $5 million (as opposed to $6 million the World Cup.)

- Steppenwolfer’s trainer Dan Pietz is not exactly objective on the subject, but he saw what I did watching a replay of Brother Derek’s race in the Santa Catalina. "He rated in that race, but he didn't relax….If you're going to go 1 1/4 miles, you can't pull the first [six furlongs] and expect to be there at the end.” [Thoroughbred Times]

- Jerry Klein of Fox Sports.com:

In fact, the total amount bet on the Derby — last year it was over $100,000,000 — is only exceeded by the number of words written and spoken before the race by supposed experts that generally leave everyone trying to decipher a 20-horse field as confused as ever.

You can count me amongst them. (The confused, not the supposed experts.)

One lucky bettor who cut through the confusion and hit the triple with a $230 investment last year parlayed his winnings into a spot in the owner’s box on Saturday. St. Louis dentist Ray Nikodem is part of the West Point Thoroughbreds ownership group in Flashy Bull.

Nikodem was one of three investors paying $38,000, or 10 percent, of Flashy Bull's $380,000 syndicated purchase price last spring. There are 17 owners overall in a group with Pennsylvania-based West Point Thoroughbreds, Inc. [Belleville News Democrat]

As you may know, most partnerships will mark their horses up from their purchase price before syndicating them to partners. (A few, including my Castle Village, do not, and take a percentage of earnings instead.) Those markups can vary, and in the case of Flashy Bull, it looks like a substantial one. The colt was purchased as a two-year old at Ocala last February for $205,000. That’s a markup of some 85%. Now, that price includes, according to their website, all training expenses and mortality insurance (generally 5% of his sale price) through last year. But even if that comes out to $50,000, which seems on the high side if anything, that’s still over 60%. But hey, did you think West Point pays for all those advertisements strictly by making money with its racehorses?

In fact, Flashy Bull is a money-loser thus far, having earned just under $160,000. That could change big-time in a little over two minutes on Saturday, though that’s extremely unlikely in my opinion. He looks to me like just another horse that needs to sit just off the pace, and an outclassed one, at that; his lifetime high Beyer is 94. Do you really expect him to improve on that? If you buy the "thumps" excuse for his Florida Derby, he hasn't had a meaningful race since March 6. But I’m sure West Point will do just fine for itself. Flashy Bull is the first thing you see on their website, and their founder Terry Finley comes right out on his website and says: Of course we are in the midst of our selling season so we think (and hope) getting to the big dance will help our cause.. Indeed, their cause of selling horses to the public at profits of 60% certainly seems to come before what might be best for Flashy Bull.

Derby Notes - May 2

- Doug O’Neill reports that Stevie Wonderboy, whose presence, as I noted yesterday, is really sorely missed in this Derby, is still recuperating from his hairline fracture at Merv’s ranch in California. "It's kind of a bummer not being part of it…..It would have been really exciting to be there." [Albany Times Union]

- It seemed uncharacteristic of John Ward to shoot so aggressively with his lightly raced Strong Contender, and the same has been said of Barclay Tagg and his Showing Up, whose status we probably won’t know until tomorrow’s post position draw. Andy Beyer recalls how ill-tempered Tagg was during Funny Cide’s Triple Crown run, and concludes that we should perhaps take this colt seriously, despite all the historical red flags (no start as a two-year old, less than five career starts).

If another trainer said the same things, it would be reasonable to conclude that he was suffering from a typical case of Derby fever and trying to make a case for a colt who probably didn't belong in the race. But handicappers might have to adjust their assessment of Showing Up, when Tagg talks about him without sounding grumpy, grouchy, curt, pessimistic or grim. [Washington Post]

- A couple of trainers that are non-participants this year spoke to the NY Post about their impressions on this year’s race. Nick Zito said "Physically, Lawyer Ron is coming up to the Derby as good as any horse I have ever seen." Bobby Frankel said "Bob Baffert is going to win it, probably with Point Determined or his other horse Bob and John….Those horses have the running style and the ability to win.”

Lawyer Ron’s trainer Bob Holthus said that Zito’s eyes did not deceive him.

"Lawyer Ron put on weight after he won the Arkansas Derby, which is always a good sign. I ran another horse in the race, Red Raymond, and he lost 20 pounds." [NY Post]

- Most of us are anticipating the big speed duel, but what if racing luck puts one of the speedballs on the lead alone? In my opinion, it won’t matter if that horse is Sinister Minister. I just don’t expect him to stay the distance, and besides, he’s a prime candidate to bounce off his Blue Grass. But Sharp Humor is an interesting story here. He’s been training lights out for Dale Romans, who just exudes confidence in the NY-bred son of Distorted Humor, a sire who has already proven he can get a Derby winner. Romans told the Post: "I can't imagine any horse training better than he is.” He’s shown grit and gameness, batttling head and head with Noonmark in the Swale, and giving Barbaro everything he could handle in the Florida Derby. And Sharp Humor has class and stamina in his pedigree. He’s out of a mare by champion and Preakness/Belmont winner Hansel, and has inbreeding to Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Buckpasser, and to the broodmare Continue. Amongst Continue’s descendents you’ll find stakes winners like Forty Niner, Brunswick, Shadeed, Chain Bracelet, and Zoftig, all of whom succeeded at a distance of ground. Sharp Humor has a dosage index of 2.64. While none of this guarantees he’ll stay ten furlongs, I think it does indicate that he’s more than just a one-dimensional speedball.

And despite Edgar Prado’s remarks that Keyed Entry was tired at the end of the mile and an eighth in the Wood (which Walter was quick to remind me of the last time I wavered about him), I still can’t completely get him out of my head. He caught my eye after his 2006 debut at six furlongs, after which I wrote a bit here about his pedigree. I liked his Gotham more than most, and you can certainly give him an excuse in the Wood (if you want to); there was no target for him to rate behind that day as he did in the Gotham, and he tired in the heavy going on the sloppy track, as did everyone but Jazil (who barely ran a lick in the early going). Pletcher told the Washington Post:

"Between the Gotham and the Wood was the shortest time between races for him….With four weeks rest now, he should be set to rebound. He's gotten two good works over the [Churchill Downs] track. He rated in the Gotham and the speed wasn't that fast that day."

Read the Fine Print

- Magna posts profit, reads Matt Hegarty’s headline in the Form. MEC Director Says Company 'Hit Bottom in 2005', relates Tom LaMarra in Bloodhorse. "We're optimistic about the future of your company. We think you'll be happier with next year's results," says the company’s director Jerry Campbell.

But read the fine print, as the Toronto Globe and Mail did, and you’ll find an ominous little footnote, which cautioned that Magna’s ability to continue as a going concern is in "substantial doubt" amid high debt, poor cash flow and delays in a key asset sale.

The rare warning was issued in a footnote to the horse racing and gambling company's first-quarter financial report, which was released during MEC's annual meeting yesterday. Neither Mr. Stronach, who is chairman of MEC, nor chief financial officer Blake Tohana mentioned the issue during presentations to shareholders and there were no questions at the meeting, also an unusual event in Mr. Stronach's universe.

There was one question about the going-concern warning during a conference call with analysts and investors yesterday afternoon. MEC officials said the warning was related to the delay in the sale of The Meadows track near Pittsburgh, which is being held up by regulators in Pennsylvania. The delay means MEC had a working capital deficiency of $112.1-million as of March 31. [Toronto Globe and Mail]

The sale of the Meadows is pending only until its slots license is approved, which is considered to be only a matter of time. So the footnote is likely just a cautious formality to avoid future liability in the unlikely event that the sale is scuttled. Still, it should be highlighted to those who will help determine the next franchise holder in New York. I don’t believe they would want NY racing in the hands of a company whose very continued existence would at all depend on a sale of assets. They certainly didn’t look very kindly on NYRA when they were in that same situation.

Big Barron's Weekend

- This is a big weekend coming up for Highland Cat, and for me as well. On Friday, Highland Cat makes his turf debut for a 45K tag – hopefully. The entries will be drawn on Wednesday, and there is a chance of some showers on Thursday, though Friday looks OK. As I've reported, he’s had a lot of work done on his hocks, which were said to be sore coming out of his last race, and Bill Turner believes that we’re going to see him make a much better accounting of himself. Plus, he finally makes the switch to the grass, which his breeding, Tactical Cat out of Highland Tide, a Highland Blade (Damascus) mare, indicates that he could like the switch to. Highland Blade was a graded stakes winner on dirt and grass; and Highland Tide is a half to Super May, a Grade 1 winner on the weeds. Truth be told, Highland Cat can’t like the grass much less than he seems to fancy the dirt, so between the switch and the vet work, perhaps this is the right spot?

Regardless of whether he gets in and/or runs well, Highland Cat will be part of a story that I wrote for Barron’s Magazine, which will hit the stands on Derby Day. This will be my maiden race in terms of a professional writing byline, and it’s been an interesting and fun, if sometimes frustrating experience about which I’ll have more to say after it comes out. The piece is about owning horses, specifically from the standpoint of someone like myself involved in a relatively small way through a partnership. And our trials and tribulations with Highland Cat, who was thought of so highly when he first arrived at Turner’s barn, is a big part of the article. In fact, if he wins on Friday, it would almost ruin the effect!

That’s one of the reasons that I expect that he’ll probably run pretty well. In addition, Castle Village is red hot again after a long cold spell; its five recent winners at Aqueduct made the partnership the leading owner, in terms of races won, at the spring meeting! Plus, with his 3/4 brother Jono winning at Pimlico last week, all of the cosmic signs are pointing to a big effort on Friday!

Of course, I’m just relaying all the facts to you and not trying to tout him. I know that some readers have already lost enough money betting on him that they’ll be hesitant to pull the trigger again. (Another reason that he could run well!)

Derby Notes and Rants - May 1

- The Form’s clocker Mike Welsch said that Alex Solis did not let Brother Derek do too much during his work .

This work did little to wipe out the memory of his work last Monday at Santa Anita, but it also didn't give anybody a reason to toss the Derby favorite. It was, simply put, a cautious final maintenance move performed under less-than-optimum conditions by a very talented horse.

On The Works, Gary Stevens said that he liked the horse even more now after this work, and again got into it in fairly heated fashion with Amoss over the previous work at Santa Anita. Amoss again questioned whether the horse will be able to finish after rating, while Stevens related a phone call from Solis in which he insisted that he already knows that the horse can rate, and was trying to let him get hit in the face by dirt. Stevens said there was no reason that Brother Derek had to prove he could finish in a workout, while Amoss countered that you “practice what you play.” Lyons sided with Amoss.

- Walter reported on seeing an NBC promo that mentioned "unbeaten favorite Barbaro." I think anyone who’s following all this would be more than a little surprised if Barbaro ended up as the favorite. This race seems like a tough sell for the network; even the human interest stories of Dan Hendricks and Michael Matz have not caught on. There are no real charismatic horses here, no catchy names or celebrity chic, all of which would have been provided by Stevie Wonderboy. I, for one, trivialized the negative effect his departure from the Derby Trail would cause. If he had gone on, with the catchy name and his dynamic closes (and yeah, Merv too) he easily could have been the type to help the race transcend the racing press and gain more mainstream attention.

I think NBC could see really low ratings for this one. Nobody except us have ever even heard of Barbaro. I just asked the Head Chef what ‘Barbaro’ is, and she had no clue. When I told her that it’s something in the context of horse racing, she said “Oh yeah. Steve Barbaro.” Steve Barbaro? But at least Barbaro the horse is undefeated. What is NBC going to say in a short promo about Brother Derek? “Unbeaten in 2006 favorite Brother Derek? Or “unbeaten on non-Polytrack dirt tracks favorite Lawyer Ron?”

Bill Handleman in the Asbury Park Press touched on the subject today.

I don't see the public as mesmerized by this group. There is no Smarty Jones in here. Or if there is, he has been careful to keep it to himself.

As for us racing fans, I suppose we’d be mesmerized by the race even if the real contenders went on strike and it was run with replacement horses. But personally, I’m annoyed about all the horses that are cluttering the field, and troubled by the feeling that the result is once again is going to be more a matter of circumstance than a gauge of the horses’ abilities. The most favorable scenario would be all the hopeless speedballs getting left at the gate, and letting the four best horses battle it out fair and square. And even though I’m going to bet on it happening, another pace collapse and unlikely winner from out of the clouds will only mean more of the same for years to come.

- And speaking of horse who shouldn’t be in the field, Flashy Bull is officially in as Mister Trieste is officially out. Kiaran McLaughlin said “I'm really excited for his connections, West Point Thoroughbreds. Win or lose, the Kentucky Derby is a fabulous event and it's great for these people to be involved." [Daily Racing Form] This 'win or lose' attitude is part of the problem. It’s such a great event for the owners, especially one like West Point, who can treat their partners to a big day and use the photos as promotional material, that people will run their horses win or lose. It would be better for the sport if they all just came to win, rather that just to run. In fact, maybe they should make it so that it sucks to lose. Perhaps make the connections of the last five finishers stay and clean up afterwards. That would make them think twice.

Enough for Brother Derek?

- Brother Derek, the presumptive Derby favorite, had his workout today on a Churchill Downs strip labeled “muddy.” With Alex Solis in on the red-eye from Hollywood Park, he got the half mile in 49.20 seconds and galloped out in 1:03. There was apparently some uncertainty on Dan Hendricks' part whether to go forward on the wet track; and as to where exactly Solis was on his route from Cincinnati. He decided to wait, both for the track to dry a bit, and for his jockey.

Then, Hendricks tried to get Churchill management to harrow the track and let them work at 10:15. Publicist J.J. Graci contacted track superintendent Butch Lehr, who refused them permission, as did Churchill president Steve Sexton, neither wanting to allow special privileges for one horse.

After an opening quarter in :25 1/5, Brother Derek was clocked his next eighth in :11 2/5 before coming home in :12 3/5 to complete the four furlongs in :49 1/5 (5/24), which was just what Hendricks was looking for. More important than the time, Brother Derek cornered beautifully, sticking close to the rail, and changed leads smoothly. [Bloodhorse]

But Hendricks sent what seems to me to be mixed signals afterwards. One on hand, he claimed that the horse didn’t really need much more than the maintenance work it seems to have been. “He's fit from his races; I didn't need a lot. It was just a little something as much for us as for him." But on the other hand, he said that he would have worked him five furlongs had the track been dry, and that his plans for the rest of the week include "strong, long gallops because he didn't do a whole lot there (in his work).” That seems to indicate to me that Hendricks is unsure as to whether he's done enough with the horse.

Indeed, the colt has not worked for this race the same way he did for his last two. He worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 before the Santa Catalina; and he drilled the same distance in 1:11, best of five that day, before the SA Derby. I think that was the work that prompted Solis to call him a “monster.” Dan Illman did some research on Derby works for his FormBlog entry today, and revealed that 7 out of the last 10 winners had a bullet work prior to the Derby. While I don’t really know how significant that is without also knowing how many horses that didn’t win the Derby also had bullet works, Brother Derek didn’t come close to one in his three works since the SA Derby. He breezed five in 1:01 2/5 (12/42) on 4/17; then he had that seven furlong work in 1:28 2/5 (5/6) behind a stablemate on 4/24; and then this one today. Interested to hear what the boys on The Works have to say about this workout when I watch it later tonight.

- Showing Up worked a half in 49.63 seconds at Belmont this morning. Trainer Barclay Tagg said he thought the work was a little slower than he was looking for, but still plans to send the unbeaten colt to Louisville. [DRF] Inexperience, puncture wound, slower workout than he wanted.....but yeah, send him to Churchill anyway. It sounds like Tagg would persist with this horse even if he showed up tomorrow morning missing a leg.

Full Speed Ahead for Pletcher

- Whatever happened to that thing that Pletcher was going to decide on Keyed Entry and Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat) only after working them the Monday before the Derby? It seems as if there’s been little doubt that they’re both going in the race, even if it means that Sunriver will be shut out. Of course, we often talk as if it’s the trainers’ decisions, and that’s often not the case. Recalling remarks that Winstar’s Elliot Walden made about Bluegrass Cat’s potential as a stallion, should we really believe that they’re going to leave it up to Pletcher? Even a distant third place finish will make for good ammunition in his advertisements. Pletcher has named Ramon Dominguez to ride.

Bluegrass Cat’s half mile work in 50.80 seconds didn’t particularly impress anyone on The Works the other day, and Tom Amoss voiced skepticism that it would be nearly enough. But according to his exercise rider Luis Castillo, that seemed to be the plan. "Going to the pole, he really wanted to go. I had to take a pretty good hold of him. I didn't want him to do too much. But he is feeling very good and he likes what he's doing." [Bloodhorse]

Keyed Entry was a handful for Angel Cordero, and certainly didn’t look like a candidate for rating. He got the six furlongs in 1:12.80. Mike Welsch of the Form noted that he was very rank while exploding away from the pole...

Flew through opening fractions of 22.92 and 35.34, came a bit to hand while angling to the middle of the track out of the turn, and appeared to tire nearing the wire. He completed his final eighth in 13.10 and galloped out seven-eighths in 1:26.08. Must settle better early to have any chance on Saturday.

I can’t help but feel that if it was up to Pletcher, he would choose Sunriver over the other two, and I would agree. His work on Saturday was very impressive. His rider barely moved on him at all; Amoss noted the “quiet hands.” Welsch observed that workmate Harlington was under moderate pressure in a vain attempt to keep pace. And Cordero has taken to calling him "my Derby horse." He’ll definitely find a place on my tickets on Saturday should he get in. It just PISSES me off to see horses like Seaside Retreat and Flashy Bull taking up space. And Bluegrass Cat for that matter!

- Balance completed her work for Friday’s Oaks with a six furlong move in 1:11.60 at Hollywood Park on Friday. Frank Lyons on TVG called her a “mortal lock.”

Sunday Night Notes - April 30

- Da Stoops (Distorted Humor) stretched his speed out to nine furlongs against Cal-breds in the Cal National Snow Chief at Hollywood on Sunday, and for Bob Baffert, it capped a month that saw him win nine stakes races, four five of them graded. He’d like to win another one next Saturday, and Bob and John and Point Determined each put in their final works on Sunday.

The Melair Stakes was for Cal-bred sophomore fillies, and She’s An Eleven was a hot number on the board, getting bet down on the nose to 8-5 favoritism over morning line favorite Chosen Royalty; both fillies are by In Excess. She ran away by nine. She’s An Eleven is out of a She’s a Sensation, a Flying Sensation mare who is a half-sister to last year’s Test winner Leave Me Alone. She’s A Sensation has a very unusual pedigree in that she’s inbred 3x3 to Secretariat’s half-brother Somethingfabulous; she also has Northern Dancer 4x4x4.

Lava Man won on the grass in the TVG Khaled Stakes in course record time "Wow, what a performance!" jockey Corey Nakatani said. [Bloodhorse]

- Keeneland to Churchill? No problem for Steve Asmussen when it comes to two-year olds. His $900,000 Napa Cat (Storm Cat) won in his debut at 4-5. He’s out of G3 winner (Miss Grillo) Compassionate (Housebuster), and is a half to $270,000 winner Coronado’s Pride. His second and third dams are G1 winners; Adored won the Santa Margarita Invitational, and Desiree took the Santa Barbara Handicap. The show horse as the 9-5 second choice, Southwestern Heat, is by Gone West out of filly champ Xtra Heat.

First-time starter Adams Theater was 12-1 morning line for the 5th at Churchill, but 5-1 at post time on a track turned sloppy; he romped by 4 ½. He’s by Honour and Glory out of stakes winner Gail’s Brush (Broad Brush), and a half to stakes winning filly Aud.