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Friday, May 05, 2006

Say What?

- I know that the White House has already settled on Tony Snow to be their new press secretary, but perhaps they should consider Steve Haskin as an expert in talking out of both sides of his mouth. I read his Derby analysis, and I still don’t really know who he likes. He’s going to have a saver on Private Vow; he likes AP Warrior, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Laywer Ron in an exacta box. But he’ll also box Bob and John, AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Sinister Minister. He said that Jazil is worth a win wager. As is Bob and John if he’s over 10 or 12-1 (I think he will be). He tabs AP Warrior for the betting angle, and then concedes that he may be overbet. He likes Barbaro and SNS for their workouts, and Lawyer Ron because he knows how to win. Then he says that SNS is the one horse who is dominant in works and in the handicapping angle. And then, he concludes with what is basically a disclaimer saying that none of this might mean anything because Sinister Minister might just run away with the race.

This is a man who has just spent FAR too much time on this, and it shows. He's a nice guy I'm sure, but he's downright delirious! I just hope he can chill and relax a little and enjoy the race. After all, he'll have a bet on half the field!

As far as Sin Min goes, wouldn’t it be a riot if he does indeed run away with this race? Imagine all the sweat and tears that we’ve all gone into handicapping and betting this thing going down the drain. There were rumors about his soundness earlier in the week, and Baffert admitted today that he had popped an abscess in a foot last Tuesday.

"But everything's OK now. He's back on it now. Man, is he back on it."

The high-strung Sinister Minister had been on the muscle for his gallop and appears ready - and then some - for his Derby ramble, where he is expected to either set the pace or be among the leaders. [Bloodhorse]
One thing I must say – I do respect everyone’s opinion on who they like in the race; there are no “wrong” opinions (except maybe mine). Steve Klein in the Form picks Sin Min to win. I disagree, but that's fine. But he also claims flatly that there was “no speed bias” at Keeneland the day of the Blue Grass, and I would say that that’s just a bunch of baloney that's not worth the paper it's written on. And I’m not even going to waste my time explaining why, again.

- Last year’s two-year old filly champ Folklore has been retired due to a fractured knee. One of her rivals last year was Pletcher’s Adieu (El Corredor), who had beaten the champ twice before running poorly in the Juvenile Fillies. Adieu makes her first start since that race tomorrow in the 7 1/2 furlong G3 La Troienne on the Derby undercard. We know how Pletcher can bring these horses back off layoffs, and she seems to stack up well against this field. One filly who does look tough though is Darley Stable’s Beholden (Cat Thief). She was a $700K two-year old in training purchase who has never run poorly, and put it all together in her last race when rated for the first time; she came on to win at the Gulf despite being four wide. Sweet Belle was up the track against Balance in the SA Oaks, but had shown fine form in her three starts up until then.

Man, there’s a lot of racing tomorrow around the country; but why? Wouldn’t it be cool if the only racing was at Churchill, and the other tracks just threw Derby parties? There’s a million dollar pick 4 and a pick 3 for a half million tomorrow; but if everyone was betting only on the Churchill races, imagine how big those pools could be.

6 Comments:

Anonymous said...

...am i seeing things, or did Balance just run DEAD LAST???...at odds of 6/5, no less...i guess the Keeneland race wasn't a throwout after all, she just can't run outside California...some horses are like that...incidentally, Randy Moss mentioned before the race that jockey Victor Espinoza was aboard for Balance's last workout, and said that it was "one of the best workouts i've ever been on a horse for"...just something to keep in mind regarding the horses tomorrow...btw, as many of you know, i subscribe to a workout service, and have looked at workout reports nearly every day for about 3 years...the one thing i've noticed most of all when incorporating workouts into my handicapping, they work a helluva lot better with unraced 2yo's than they do with older horses who have compiled a race record...while a positive workout is always nice to have, past-performances definitely take precedence...

...ps...i might have some reports later on the Derby horses who worked in Cailfornia...while i can't post the reports word-for-word, i'll try to post some general impressions...

Anonymous said...

Yea Ha, Hopefully I am right tomorrow and can make some $$$$$. I have a $5.00 Oaks/Derby double----14/2-5-7-8-10. Can't wait to see the will pays do I can get really nervous. How do you pick the 14 one might ask--only because Lemon Drop Kid was one of my favorite horses. Best of luck to all readers tomorrow-Byanose

Alan Mann said...

WOW, that's awesome!!! Well, if it's a 14-7, then the both of us will be extremely happy! Good luck, man. I like all of those horses! (except one)

As far as that workout that Walter mentioned, that was the one that caused Frank Lyons to say that she was a "mortal lock."

Anonymous said...

...more Derby props, and these are a little different...

Will Steppenwolfer finish in the Top 8?

Yes -180
No +150

Will AP Warrior finish in the Top 8?

Yes -160
No +130

Will Lawyer Ron finish in the Top 7?

Yes +110
No -140

Will Jazil finish in the Top 12?

Yes +130
No -160

Anonymous said...

...as for the Derby-bound Cali horses, the only one i got a report on was A.P. Warrior...apparently he's been training lights-out @ Hollywood...my clocker thinks he'll fire his best shot tomorrow...

...ps...i see that Byanose is alive to AP Warrior...nice ticket dude, i hope you cash!...

Alan Mann said...

I like 3-2 on Steppenwolfer finishing lower than 8th.