Wednesday Recap - Double Digits and Happy Tweets

Rudy Rodrigeuz has now sent 1,112 horses to the starting gate since February 2010, when he set out on the path from being a low-percentage jockey to a high-percentage trainer.  I think I can honestly say that I can't at all recall ever wagering any money on him as a trainer, at least to win.  (Which has made me right 78% of the time.)    I have nothing against the guy, unless maybe it's something subliminal from his jockey days.  Just seems as if he's usually starting horses that are moving significantly up in class, and starting at low odds.  His ROI is $1.82 and his median payoff is $6.00.  (By contrast, David Jacobson, a guy of a similar ilk as a claiming guy [who wins at a slightly lower percentage] is $1.72/$6.30 over the last three years.)

But, like anyone, Rodriguez gets his share of winners at double digit-odds - 14 out of his 248 winners. Don't know what the context that I always demand from others is in this case, and don't really feel like looking up other trainers.  (Oh OK...Jacobson has 11 from his last 247 winners...)

Actually, that was coming into Wednesday; Rodriguez now has 15 after Count Catamount ($27.60) took the opener.  Not a bad price for a horse who'd won his last start.  And yes, he was moving significantly up in class...but the last time he made the same exact class jump after winning for the same claiming tag - last Aug/Sept at Sar/Bel - he also won, and paid $30.40.  (And again, not red-boarding, didn't play the race; just trying to point out interesting tidbits that will maybe make us - or me, anyway - better horseplayers in the future.)  The winner held off Glacier Bay in a desperate finish; that horse was 19-1, but Ken Ramsey must have known something because he signed the ticket for Maker, who claimed him for 25k (he was coming off a win too).

I had the wrong Peter Walder horse, as Cypress Isle ($8.20) took the second.

I'd noticed in the morning that Gary Contessa was in a really cheery mood on Twitter.  "Saratoga is a mindset not just a race track," he wrote.  "The fans, the people and the ambiance can never be equaled. There is nothing quite like it."  So maybe he was feeling really good about his chances with Margaret Lilian ($9) in the third.  Keep that in mind next time you see him tweeting giddily in the A.M.  Three-year old filly has really seemed to find a niche sprinting on the turf even though she's a daughter of Suburban (at 10f) winner Political Force out of an Always a Classic mare who's a half to Estevan, a turf stakes winner at a mile and 70, and the dam of Newdad, who won the Pan American on grass at a mile and a half.

We mentioned Corail ($3.90) the other day; that's four straight 2yo first-out winners for Pletcher, and his 7th win at the meet overall, putting him one behind Chad Brown.  As we all know, you can't keep a good Toddster down.  He has another in the 11th (!) on Thursday, another one of these increasingly popular turf routes for juveniles.  The ridiculously named Notacatbutallama (5-2) is a $105,000 Repole purchase at Ocala in April; he's by Harlan's Holiday out of a Hansel half-sister to Lost Without You, a minor stakes winner in a turf sprint at Belmont. 

Unbridled Command won the 6th; the first of two winners for trainer Tom Bush which both paid an identical $15 even.  In the 8th race, the Fleet Indian Stakes, winner Beautiful But Blue was quite impressive in her first try against older fillies and mares (she was the only sophomore in the race), just burying the stick favorite Risky Rachel in the stretch.  She's by El Corredor out of a multiple state-bred stakes winner (including one at Saratoga) in Beautiful America; and she sure seems to like seven furlongs.

Saginaw took the Morrissey for the aforementioned Jacboson, and this one wasn't double digit odds ($7.30).  It's the first stakes win for Jacobson in at least five years at the Spa.  Well...the first flat racing stakes anyway.  As you might expect, he's only had one other stakes entrant over that time (from 114 starters).  Nice training job in this six-year old gelding's first start since getting crushed in the Met Mile, and it's the third state-bred stakes win for Saginaw since he was claimed for 30K from R. Dutrow.  Saginaw earned a Beyer of 103.  Two winners from 17 starters for the barn, and as previously mentioned, he won't win a high percentage here but he'll likely get his fair share; a bit better, I'm going to guess, than his 8% Spa win rate over the last five years.

Zito off the schneid in the 10th with Sinorice ($28), his first win in 17 tries at the meet and 35 on the NYRA circuit overall.

13,991 in attendance on a good weather day, which is down by 2,063 from the second Wednesday last year.

Wednesday Picks

I spend far too much time trying to handicap the weather this time of year.  Last night, saw a big blob of green with yellow patches meandering in the general direction of Saratoga.  As has seemingly been the case thus far for the most part this meet however, the system broke up and skirted elsewhere, sparing the track from the worst.   However, the perceived threat was just enough to throw me off my game, as obsessed - horrified would be the better word - with the prospect of sloppy tracks as I am.  Not too thrilling of a betting card under any conditions though, I must say, which is what happens when one tries to maintain a six-day a week schedule these days, no matter where you are.

In the 10th, Spielberg (10-1) ships up from New Jersey for trainer (and owner in this case) Peter Walder.  Like Jason Servis who we mentioned the other day, he's a high percentage Jersey-based guy who rarely makes the trip up here; just seven times in the last five years, and no wins (though a nice stakes placing with Lacie Slew last September).  This three-year old son of Simon Pure has been moving in the right direction since being claimed four races back, with a steady advance on the Beyer scale, if only an incremental one class-wise.  Has been given a breather lately after a long stretch of racing, and comes off an off-the-layoff second as the favorite at Monmouth, beaten by a big class dropper for Kelly Breen.  Another, shorter, layoff since then, and three recent drills punctuated by a nice five furlong move on Saturday.  Have the feeling that Walder, 20% in the 31-60 day layoff category, has this one primed to continue his improvement in this spot.  Gets Maragh, who won on Spielberg twice off the Walder claim, and who wins at 25% for this barn.  Big Creek (5-2) ran third in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine for the Toddster in April; one to beat if he can translate that form to dirt.  Dan and Sheila (3-1) also drops for Pletcher but must overcome outside post.

In the 6th at Del Mar, where I don't even have to look at the weather radar (and where I turn when I have misgivings about the weather here), Panettone (7-2) drops in class off an improved third at Betfair Hollywood Park with blinkers added for trainer Dean Pederson.  He was two lengths behind Chapman's Peak, who came back with a solid placing in an allowance at Del Mar, and three lengths in front of Magic Beam, who then romped on this track in this very class.  Of course, those results alone don't mean that Panettone would take to the Del Mar surface as well....but he graduated here in his first start last July, so he's already shown he can handle it.  Seems a routine selection; his morning line would be a bargain here in my opinion.  Best of luck, wherever you are and whatever the weather, and have a great day.

Saratoga Notes

Had to be really impressed with the wins by Alpha and Paynter, even as jaded as I am these days about the quality of the modern thoroughbred.   Not that either are necessarily "great," whatever that means these days; that still remains to be seen.  Don't really know for sure what either one of them beat. 

But they each certainly proved adaptable and tractable; and each would seem to have ample room to improve still.  Alpha was making his first start since the Derby, was running on a sloppy track for the first time, and found himself in an unfamiliar position setting the pace.  Ramon Dominguez helped take it from there, slowing the proceedings down to a crawl (24.90 and 24.73) for the second and third quarters.  This helped allow Alpha to open up some daylight turning for home (24.16 to the 1/8th pole), and then resolutely hold sway in 12.28, turning back the challenge of Neck 'n Neck, who ran well.  The runner-up showed those, such as myself, who thought he could only run fast at Churchill.  Alpha earned a Beyer of 98.

Paynter was off five weeks less than Alpha, but the Belmont hasn't always been a springboard for future success off late.  Unlike in the Belmont and his prior allowance win, Baffert's colt did not break on top this time.   I didn't see the traffic after the start that track announcer Larry Collmus alluded to, just seemed as if Gemologist outbroke him.  It's not however as if Paynter had never run well from off or slightly off the pace, he has.  Just the way he did it here.  It was almost comical seeing how easy he was going under Bejarano while Castellano was flailing away on Gemologist, a colt who Pletcher was talking up big time coming in.  Paynter drew away in a final furlong of 12.64, and earned a whopping Beyer of 108. 

The Toddster was still touting Gemologist afterwards, offering a full-throated defense and an Uncle Mo-ish excuse. 

  “He had a lung infection, a lot of mucus, so we’re going to try and clear him up with antibiotics.....Look at the form, the horses he ran against – he beat Alpha, he beat Currency Swap, he beat Street Life – we know he’s a lot better than that. ” [Daily Racing Form]

   In the 1st on Monday, Dominant Jeannes ($6.20) won for Jason Servis.  This trainer is a high percentage guy - a solid 25%-er - who races mostly in NJ, and actually had only two starters at Saratoga prior to this meet.   Now, he has two winners and a narrowly-beaten second from just five starters at this meet, so worth watching out for him.  Servis claimed this one for 20K from Jacobson in his last, and earned that back plus a little more with this win.


In the third, two-year old  Fly Bye Pomeroy ($27) won his debut for trainer Carlos Martin.  This barn  doesn't win with many first-timers; just five now from 78 tries over the last three years.  But he's done pretty well with them at Saratoga of late.  Last year, Martin had two winners and four seconds from 10 first-time starers; and a winner and a second in as many starts thus far in 2012. 

Another nice-priced Pletcher first-out winner in the 5th; Top Tier Lass ($14.80) dominated and earned a Beyer of 83.  The Toddster now has six winners, two behind leader Chad Brown, who had started 10 less horses going into Monday.  Two-year old filly is by first-year sire Street Boss (2nd in the early rookie sire by earnings list) out of a King of Kings mare who is a half-sister to Stopshoppingmaria, 2nd in the BC Juvie Fillies Turf for the trainer last year.  This is also the distaff family of G1 winners Flashy Bull and Perfect Soul.  Pletcher has won with his last three first-time starters.  He has one in for Wednesday listed as the 9-5 ML favorite in the 5th.  Corail is a Wertheimer homebred by Indian Charlie out of a Twining mare who's a half-sister to A Phenomenon, the Jim Dandy winner we mentioned here just the other day. 

Aforementioned Chad Brown added his 8th winner (from 27 starters) of the meet with La Pernelle ($8.10) in the 7th.  Daughter of Beat Hollow (Sadlers Wells) was wide both turns and seemingly beaten at the eighth pole before surging late with Ramon to prevail in a four-horse blanket finish in which, according to the race chart, no rival was soundly defeated, small consolation I'm sure to those who had one of the other three.  Those of you who think that Durkin is finished might want to check out his call of this race.  "Stymied is she in traffic," he noted of favored Federation in the midst of the chaotic stretch run.

Heard someone last week, perhaps Mr. Serling, mention that Carl Domino is always good for a longshot winner or two, and he did just that in the 10th with Countknickerbocker ($48.60).

11,110 in attendance on the second Monday of the meet.

Saturday Morning Notes

Didn't do much handicapping for today due to the uncertainty around which races, if any other than the Diana, would remain on the grass, especially with additional rain in the forecast (which could effect main track conditions too).   [All races are on the turf as of now, surprise!]  The fact that a flash flood warning has been issued for the area from 11 AM Saturday to the same time Sunday cannot be a great sign.  Won't go into my Polytrack spiel here, but I wouldn't be spending quite as much time watching the green blobs with the yellow and red thunderstorm cells move east on weather.com.

Did take a look at the Jim Dandy.  I'd generally be amenable to trying to beat a horse like Alpha (5-2), as I'm generally inclined to take a skeptical stance on these Triple Crown horses coming back after flopping in the Derby.  This one however looks tough to beat on paper as he seeks to become the 6th Derby starter to win his next start; not only because he simply looks like the class, but also in large part because I think the main contenders are all flawed in this spot.  Neck 'n Neck (3-1) comes in off two triple-digit Beyer romps at Churchill, but all three of his career wins have come over that track, with not that much else to show.  Teeth of the Dog (5-1) has excelled in his one-turn races; Liaison (7-2) has done so on synthetic surfaces.   I had Atigun (8-1) in the Belmont, but that was the Belmont, a race I don't consider to be a harbinger of future performance at standard distances.

A couple of the others look a little interesting to me.  Prospective (12-1) has bounced back from his Derby debacle with two straight wins, and generally has an excellent record in two-turn dirt races not at Churchill Downs.  Fast Falcon (10-1) may be the horse other than the favorite to have the most upside.  He has successfully stepped right up from his graduation with two excellent stakes efforts, and the son of Awesome Again out of a Pleasant Tap half-sister to the G1 winner Pool Land could like the stetchout to two turns.  His trainer Nick Zito is in a Saratoga funk thus far, and hasn't won a race in New York in his last 29 tries.  But I think Fast Falcon and Prospective are two that can provide some value in the exotics.  Of course, if the track is a quagmire, all bets are off and I'll be long onto Del Mar by that point.

 - Two winners for Shug on Thursday.  Sea Island ($33.60) paid that price in her first try around two turns; daughter of Pulpit out of a Pleasant Colony mare is a full sister to Shug's Peter Pan winner Sightseeing. while Abaco ($7.70) is by Giant's Causeway out of the graded stakes winner Cat Cay who, in turn, is out of Cadillacing, the full sister to the great Easy Goer.

Chad Brown now sits atop the trainer standings with five winners from 20 starters after sweeping the late double on Thursday and adding another on Friday.  Lightning Sound ($6.70), who capped off that DD, was taken by Linda Rice for 35k.  Son of Langfuhr brought back $80,000 in three starts (including the claim proceeds) since Brown claimed him for 50K in May for Michael Dubb.  Guess one could grind out a living that way.  Street Life ($6.30) splashed home to win the Curlin on Friday in his first start since the Belmont; he's the second horse from that race to win his next start, the other being My Adonis.

Centring ($3.10) got Tom Albertrani on the board in the 3rd on Friday; Darley homebred is by AP Indy out of the multiple G1 winner Composure.

I know that all the people who'd been pissing money away on Pletcher first-time juveniles must have been thrilled if they didn't have Park City ($15.60), the only first-timer in the 5th; he was 3-1 in the morning line.  He's by Harlan's Holiday out of Pleasant Colony mare, and his second dam is a half to the speedy and ill-fated A Phenomenon, who won the 1983 Jim Dandy for Angel Cordero and Angel Penna (both Jr.).  And with that, we've come full circle, so I'll just say - best of luck and have a great day!

Saratoga (Early) Saturday

A couple of the early races, will try to get back with the stakes races at some point:

In the first, Big Screen (5-1) returns to a two-turn dirt route for trainer Tom Albertrani, looking (as of this writing) for his first Spa win of the year (came close with 15-1 Better Lucky in the Lake George on Wed).  Three-year old son of Speightstown has done by far his best running under these conditions, and progressed well in Florida after graduating while keeping some pretty good company.  culminating in a narrow loss in the Calder Derby behind graded stakes placed Good Morning Diva.  Comfortable tossing last two, the one-turn Peter Pan and the grassy Hill Prince, both graded stakes; class relief should suit here.  This Hard Land (15-1) showed major improvement against state-breds in the spring, then disappointed in open company, but may have bounced after two fast races; money prospects here.  Westshore (3-1) ships in and drops in class for trainer James Baker, who is an interesting case.  Barn is just 4 for 46 overall at Saratoga, but three of them came in the last two weeks here last year.  He's one of two horses in this field to have run second in the Curlin.   The other is prospective favorite Raison d'Etat (5-2), the horse to beat off his effort in that stakes here last summer, but he'll be overbet making his first start since January for Mott.

In the 4th, Crown the Chief (9-2) drops from 30K to 20K off the claim for Bruce Levine, who won with his last two starters (as of this writing).  Good off-the-claim barn is five-for 10 when dropping in tag by 50% off a claim, which I know doesn't quite fit the math in this case (one of my very few pet peeves about Formulator is that this is the only available criteria for drops in claim price), but perhaps serves as an indication of his intentions.  Additionally, Castellano, who rode for Contessa last time out, not only sticks around, but jumps off a live contender in Runawayeightyfour to do so.  Beat three of these in that last race, finishing a solid second to class dropping even money favorite The Fed Eased.  Can easily outrun the other speed types based on Moss figs, and has shown ability to sit slightly off the pace as well.  Solid prospects here, though that morning line seems a pipe dream.   Laysh Laysh Laysh (4-1) returns to the David Jacobson barn after a three-year absence.  Thrived for R. Dutrow since then, winning a stakes and narrowly missing in a G2 last year.  Been dropping steadily down the claiming ladder of late though, and does so off the claim here for a barn which surely knows how to place them; would hardly be a surprise if he recaptures his old magic for his old trainer.  Coffee Boy (7-2) ships from CD and also drops, for leading trainer (AOTW) Asmussen.  Been burning quite a lot of money of late and we'll stand against here.

Wednesday Partial Recap

In the first, Mess in a Dress ($14.40) closed like a shot to get up by a nose after she and the rest of the field looked hopelessly beaten by Catalonia.  A lot, if not most of the time at this level, it's only an illusion that a horse is closing that fast, but this filly actually did close pretty quickly, in 12.18 seconds.  In contrast, Catalonia, who got mixed up while changing leads late, stopped to a 13.48 final furlong to inflict one tough beat for anyone who had her at 6-1. 

In the 2nd, Hillswick ($5) earned back $40,200 of the 50K that Jacobson claimed him for at Belmont in June.  First and only winner of the meet thus far for a barn that thrives in the colder weather at the Big A and which has now started 11 horses.   But he did win five races here last year in 27 starts, a respectable percentage, and he's certainly capable any time of the year.

In the 5th, the bettors went back to the Toddster two-year old well despite his 1 for 22 record coming in and the fact that Lucky Friend was beaten soundly (albeit with excuses) at .75 to 1 in her debut.  8-5 this time, she finished 4th again, but this time beaten by 17 lengths instead of 6 1/2.  Well-bet 1st timer Teen Pauline ($6.80) won for Asmussen, 11-3-4-0 on the meet thus far.    She's by Tapit, out of Effectual,  a Carson City mare who won a Grade 3 at two.

Hobbs ($13) got Pletcher on the board in the 6th, wiring the field at a mile on the turf in his first try beyond six furlongs.  Son of Put It Back, out of a Dehere mare, is related to the trainer's one-time Derby hopeful Gemologist (the 3rd dam of Hobbs is the 4th dam of Gemologist), who will make his first start since he flopped in that race when he starts in the Haskell on Sunday. 

  "I thought he breezed as well this morning as he's ever breezed and he's always been a good work horse," Pletcher said afterward. "But he was exceptionally good this morning." [ESPN.com]  Doesn't he say that a lot?

Cease ($5.60) went off lower than I'd liked, as the bettors weren't totally fooled by Ruler On Ice (though he did eventually, and seemingly hesitatingly, bet down to 5-2 by post time).  Five-year old gelded son of War Chant is now 3 for 3 at a nine furlongs on the Saratoga main track, so maybe we'll see him in the Woodward at meet's end.  In the old days, perhaps he would have been wheeled right back for the Whitney.  But these ain't the old days.

Nice ride by Leparoux on the Lake George winner Centre Court ($7.50).  I don't know that he had much choice given the horses outside of him, but he at least looked chill sitting towards the inside waiting for room turning for home, and was able to emerge from between horses by the 1/16th pole to get her second graded stakes win in as many starts since graduating in May.  She's by Smart Strike out of the Grade 1 winner Let (AP Indy).

Wednesday Picks

The opener on the first Wednesday of the meet is a ponderous 3yo filly race for 20k claimers.  So ponderous that I actually took a peek to see who Dave Litfin liked in the Form.  I don't generally look at his, or any public handicapper selections; and that's not meant at all as a dis.  I just don't, it's not my thing.  But sometimes if I get really confused,  I'm just fishing for some kind of hook. 

  ANNELLE ran a new top winning Beyer first time off a claim, beating Shebop, who is a four-time winner.  She has been on turf or synthetic ever since. 

  Annelle is the 3-1 morning line favorite, and I'm thinking that ol' Dave just mailed this one in.  As I've said in the past, I can't possibly imagine handicapping every single race every single race day, and I'm sure these guys have to, at times, simply default to one of the favorites when they don't really like anyone.  I'd guess that one could throw darts at the logical choices in those cases and come up with a respectable percentage of winners over an extended period of time.  And again, I'm not trying to be critical, just saying that it's gotta be part of the job just in order to maintain one's sanity. 

So, I don't think that's a serious analysis, and it ain't doing it for me.  Annelle beat a short field in a mile race in March at GP despite lumbering home in 51 3/5 for the last half-mile.  The "four-time winner" thing is particularly weak considering that Shebop won all of those races before the GP race, and most recently ran up-the-track in a conditional 7500 claimer at Penn National.  Trainer Mark Casse is 4 for 41 lifetime at the Spa, 1 for 12 with horses that have gone off at 4-1 or less.  So I'm against Annelle.

And now, since I devoted 317 words to explain why I don't like this horse, you should probably be wheel-barreling cash to the track to bet on it.  As for me, I'll try Mess in a Dress (8-1).  This daughter of Henny Hughes won at this distance in her first race for Jacobson in March, and later ran a couple of seconds with Beyers well fast enough to win here.  She was claimed by Charlton Baker after finishing a distant 4th behind a couple of horses who would similarly destroy this field.  Been off since that May race, but appears to appreciate time between races, and goes here for a good layoff barn.  Looks well-spotted dropping slightly in class, has a bullet work for this, and adds blinkers which will hopefully have her a bit closer to the pace.  Bit of a stretch in a tough race, but 8-1 would do.

In the 8th, Cease (5-2) returns to his favorite distance and to a surface over which he's two-for-two (albeit over sealed off tracks).  Repeats a winning pattern from last year for trainer Albert Stall (a winner from two starters at the meet thus far), returning off a similar-length layoff after a turf race at Churchill.  Should be going well at the finish, perhaps at a better price than his morning line due to the presence of the sluggish 2011 Belmont Stakes winner......(quick, can you name him offhand?)...... Ruler on Ice (8-5), one of my favorite horses in training to bet against.  Schoolyard Dreams (6-1) could be dangerous for R Dutrow and R Dominguez, but his two-turn form on fast dirt tracks just hasn't been that good.   Best of luck, and have a great day.  If you're up there and the weather is nearly as nice as it is down here, you surely will.

Saratoga Monday

9,320 at Saratoga on the 1st Monday, becoming a traditional four-figure attendance day if I'm not mistaken (no, I'm not taking the time to look it up.)   Probably won't have another one of those in decent weather until the final week of the too-long meeting.

Ramon Dominguez followed up his six win day with a winner in the opener for Anthony Dutrow, the leading trainer with three winners in five starters.  The other two were seconds.  Decisive Mood  paid $10.40 coming off an allowance win at Monmouth as the bettors opted for a couple of Churchill shippers instead.  Maybe they were thrown off by the Fractions Unavailable notation on his running line.  This three-year old son of Awesome Again is out of a Gone West mare who's a half-sister to the Canadian 3yo champion Peaks and Valleys; and from the distaff family of the champion turf mare Forever Together. 

Veiled Prophet ($31.60) moved up sharply off the claim for trainer Dominic Galluscio.   Winning jockey Cornelio Velasquez had ridden this horse last time and stuck around for the new connections.  Not saying that as a redboard, as I was at work and not playing....but always a good sign to keep an eye out for.  The rider also took the 3rd on Lady Rizzi ($11.40) for Linda Rice, her first winner of the meet; and the 8th on improbable longshot Grandpa Len ($46)

Churchill shippers ran 1-2 in the 4th; Tiz Sardonic Joe ($13.20) was the second winner from five starters (1 2nd) for trainer Eddie Kenneally.  You might recall that this barn struggled here a bit last summer.  Kenneally is one win from equaling his total of three winners for the entire 2011 meetings, from 26 starters.  Three-year old son of Tiznow is a half to a graded turf winner in Joe's Blazing Aaron (though only 3 for 16 lifetime), and a group stakes placed French horse.

Well, the first of two short-priced Pletcher first-time two-year olds to go down did so in the 5th.  This barn is now 1 for his first 21 and is taking some adoring horseplayers down with him.   Although the Toddster always seems to be on an even keel, it was reported that three hairs were seen blowing out of place as he was leaving the track.  Citizen Emma at least ran well in the 5th, a turf route, but fell short to Da Mi Basia Mille (Pure Prize) ($19.80), second winner of the meet for Clement.   And then, as if making that one even money wasn't enough, the bettors sent Polan off at 3-2 in the 7th.  This one faded to 5th behind Soul House ($14.20), who got off to a bad start and used it to his advantage as he ran down another exhausted field of two-year olds.  And getting back to a point I tried to make in the last post before I screwed it up - just visually, it seems rather apparent that a race on the grass, even at a longer distance, has gotta be far easier on these young horses than the pounding sprint races on dirt surfaces.  The surface is kinder, and they're not either running full out nor getting ridden all out and whipped mercilessly as they tire from their early efforts.  However, briefly, and surely amongst many other factors, people in this sport are way too beholden to tradition to institute real change that could truly make the game less punishing on the animals.

Soul House earned $36,000 for the win, more than twice his purchase price as a yearling at the Spa last year.  He's by Limehouse out of a Stormin' Fever mare, and is inbred 3x4 to Dixieland Band, 4x4 to Secretariat.  (As I've mentioned before, I don't bother mentioning inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector because they're so common.)  His 6-1 odds came despite his hailing from the 31% 1st-time starter outfit of Arlington-based trainer Larry Rivoli.  He had a winner from seven starters last year, his entire Saratoga resume, but a sharp 26% over the last year overall, so probably worth keeping an eye on.

Saratogs Notes

Seemed like the Saratoga training title was conceded to Pletcher prior to the opening of the meet.  But, as opposed to some past years when he came flying out of the gate, the Toddster thudded to a 1-for-19 start (coming into Monday....and is there anyone out there who doesn't find the Monday racing at the Spa to be excessive at this point?).  Still, no need to worry if you care about this stuff.  He's only one winner behind a host of others.  And even with a low winning percentage, he can simply overwhelm the others through volume; Chad Brown (2 for 12) is the only other barn in double figures in starters.

His one winner was certainly of the spectacular variety, at least on the Beyer scale.  Two-year old filly Kauai Katie breezed by 12 in her debut on opening day, earning a whopping figure of 100; thus virtually ensuring that she'll be a contender for underlay of the meet when she runs back in the Spinaway.  She's by Malibu Moon our of a turf stakes winning More Than Ready mare; and she's out of the distaff family of the hard-hitting handicap horse Cimarron Secret, who started 49 times, probably more than Kauai Katie and the six fillies she crushed will run in their careers combined.

The rest of Pletcher's balance sheet for the weekend was quite grim; out of the 18 losers, 10 of them went off at odds of 3-1 or less (mostly less, seven at 2-1 or lower).  One of the worst of them was Rose Junction, an effeminately-named son of Dixie Union who checked in dead last as the 2-1 second choice in the Sanford Stakes, an entry-level allowance disguised as a Grade 2 stakes, as most early season juvenile stakes races are these days.  Another thing that these races often are is ugly.  First quarter was sped in 21 3/5, while the final quarter of the six furlong affair took 26 2/5.  I dunno, you dirt guys love this early speed stuff, but I found it a bit painful to watch as Bern Identity ($5.60) managed to stagger home the least exhausted of the bunch.  I know there's a lot of talk about Lasix-free two-year old racing these days.  But maybe, if you're considering the health and welfare of juveniles, one should consider the way they are raced and on what kind of surfaces, rather than what they are racing on.

And, on that topic, this thing with the group of trainers who announced they will not administer race-day Lasix to their two-year olds is not going to last unless every trainer agrees to go along.  You'll have owners who spent six figures on some horse who went 20 seconds flat in their sales show wanting their horses to be faster, and wondering why other trainers can use Lasix while theirs won't.  And you'll end up with trainers who do and trainers who don't, and eventually the whole thing will fall apart when owners shop around in the interest of getting an immediate return on their investment.  Nice gesture, but it won't work. (It was an owners' pledge, stupid mistake on my part.)

Looking on the Bright (or Less Dark) Side

A friend writes from Saratoga:  "It's great to be here but also sort of depressing, given the endless stream of bad news. Between Joe Drape and the State of New York, my love for racing is hard to maintain these days."

And it's true, it's tough times for the morale of us horseplayers around here, with the impending state takeover of the NYRA Board, and the steady drumbeat of speculative and repetitive NY Times articles absurdly elevated to front page status.  (Except of course the article on the Senate hearing on doping, which was unprominently placed on the front page of the sports section.  What should have been the holy grail in the Times' campaign to eradicate drugs and medication was clearly not sensational enough for the front page, lacking in horse deaths and trainer intrigue and shenanigans as it was.  Besides, had it been on the front page, Joe Drape probably would have had to report that only one Senator attended the hearing in its entirety with a handful of others drifting in briefly.  And that would surely put a damper on the urgency that the Times has been trying to manufacture.  This is quite obviously not the hot-button issue in Washington that the Times has tried to make it out to be, and it's surely questionable as to whether any federal intervention will ever occur.  And besides, wouldn't the Republicans in the House decry this as excessive government regulation of business?)

But man, it's time for the boutique meetings at Saratoga and Del Mar, my favorite time of the year....and, if everything works out, I'll be lucky enough to make an appearance at both.  So you gotta try and look on the bright side.  Or, at least, try not to dwell too much on the bad side.  With that in mind, let's try the following:

While the Times' series has surely cast a pall on the proceedings, it's my guess that, as far as illegal drugs and medication goes, the sport is no more or less fucked up than it ever has been. In fact, I would hope it's probably not quite as lawless as in the past.  That may or may not be of any consolation to many of you.  Personally though, and as I've mentioned more than once here (while acknowledging that I don't bet as much nor take it all as seriously as some), when I wager my hard-earned money on dumb animals owned and controlled by human beings (who we know as a highly corrupt species), I have no expectations whatsoever that everything is on the up and up.  And nor is that, obviously, a condition for me to participate.  This is a game that has always featured scamps and scoundrels, many of whom have been described throughout the years as 'characters' or 'colorful'; and, I dunno, isn't that all part of the fun?  From my earliest days on the apron at Roosevelt, we were always attempting to figure who's "trying" or not; and it was with a smile that we would yell "JUUUUUICE" as the latest Oscar Barrera. claim would come roaring down the stretch after moving up several levels off the claim.  Even if every drug magically disappeared tomorrow, trainers would still cheat.  Should they be banned for life for running a horse in conditions in which he/she knows it will fail in order to score a big price next time out?

Of course however, if medications, legal or illegal, are causing horses to break down, then that's a different story.  Joe Drape tells us that "many" of the horses who died in the spate of injuries at the Big A over the winter "had been injected repeatedly with pain medication in the days and weeks before their breakdowns."  But that's just another "stat" (though the number is unspecified here) without context, and longtime readers know how I feel about that.  The context is this: Tell me also how many horses who did not break down in those same races in which the deceased animals participated were also receiving the same or similar treatments. At the low level that many of the deaths took place, my educated guess is that the percentages would be similar.  If that number is significantly less for the surviving horses however, then come and tell me about it.  Before then though, keep your meaningless drivel to yourself.  And off the front page of my favorite newspaper, please!

As far as the NYRA Board members who will be appointed after the Saratoga meet goes,  it was highly disturbing to read, in Paul Post's Saratogian piece of July 3, names like Jeff Perlee, who was deeply involved in the Friends of New York Racing/Empire Racing scam, and Sandy Frucher, so highly effective in his stint at NYCOTB.  However, other prospective board members mentioned were solid racing people who would have the best interests of the sport at heart.  Too early to jump to any dire conclusions thus far.

Of course though, with politicians in control, we can expect bad things to happen no matter what the board ultimately looks like.  I'd think there's a decent chance that, after the three years, racing in New York will take place at Saratoga from July 4 through Labor Day and at Belmont the rest of the year.  That would suck, but it's probably inevitable anyway.

But by far the biggest threat to the sport in New York is the reduction or elimination of slots money turned over the tracks and horsemen.  Ominously, we saw some Chris Christie-ian language in a report issued by the Franchise Oversight Board a few weeks ago. 

The board said NYRA must devise a strategy "to end its reliance on VLT subsidies and immediately develop plans on how it will meet this goal." [Bloodhorse]

  However, the composition of the NYRA Board will have nothing to do with this, nor with actions on takeout.  Those matters are written into state law, and would have to be changed by the legislature.  That's a complex matter, with many lawmakers representing districts with racetracks and/or horsemen to consider.  Cuomo can introduce a change in the law, but it's surely unclear how it would play out.

Whatsmore, I think that the change at NYRA will alter the dynamics of the debate.  No longer will NYRA be viewed as a symbol of dysfunction and corruption, everything wrong about racetracks in the state.  It will be the state's creation, presumably completely above board.  No longer will it serve as a whipping boy for politicians and newspaper editorial boards.  With that element removed from the equation, perhaps, and hopefully, the focus can shift to any attempt to reduce VLT revenue as the job-killing measure it would be, and put a more human face on the horsemen and women who would be affected.  Maybe.

We can only hope.  In the meantime, we should enjoy the great racing in beautiful settings, and try not to worry about that which we cannot yet, or possibly ever, control.  So, as Joe Mantegna said in David Mamet's overlooked gem Things Change, "Let's gamble!"

Opening Day (1)

In the 9th at Del Mar, the second division of the opening day Oceanside Stakes, Stoney Fleece (4-1) comes off two sharp efforts at Golden Gate.  Rugged three-year old son of Decarchy (Distant View) has just one layoff line to show for his 13 career starts dating back to last August, but seems to be getting better with racing.   Tough loss last out when he couldn't quite catch a sharp Hollendorfer front-runner despite coming home determinedly in 23 2/5 seconds for the final quarter.  He's never run poorly on the grass and has stepped up his Beyers in his last three starts to a level good enough to win this.  Been closer to the pace last two with jockey Kevin Krigger; don't want him too close to expected action up front here.  Think one could do far worse than back this one at his 4-1 morning line for the red-hot John Sadler barn, 8-2-1 with his last 14 starters at the Betfair Hollywood Park meet  My Best Brother (5-1) handled the stretch out to this mile distance seamlessly with a front-running allowance win.  Full brother to Stormello figures to have some company from the inside in this spot, but appears to be the one to catch in his current form.  Holy Candy is the 7-5 morning line favorite off a couple of OK tries to get a piece of the purse in graded stakes on synthetic surfaces; obvious bet-against in first try on grass at that price.

As the Breeders' Cup, and Greatness, Turns

Paulick writes that Monmouth is in the "driver's seat" for the 2013 Breeders' Cup, which confuses me a little because I thought it was committed to Santa Anita and Churchill Downs for most of the rest of eternity.  Interesting piece; he discusses the no-Lasix rules that the BC is planning to impose...and the fact that the horsemen could in theory block out-of-state simulcasting under the Interstate Horseracing Act, "which requires approval of the representative horsemen’s organization at the host track for any interstate simulcast," should they not approve of those restrictions.  New Jersey horsemen have indicated that, though they oppose the blanket banning of Lasix, they're OK with it for the Breeders' Cup.  "That kind of cooperation is why some think Monmouth Park is in the driver's seat to become host in 2013," according to Paulick.

However, such approvals are not needed in New York State, which is exempt from the law.  According to the article: 

  NYRA last hosted the Breeders’ Cup at Belmont Park in 2005, and it was widely believed the event would return to the Long Island, N.Y., racetrack next year after such a lengthy hiatus. But that was before the upheaval created by a takeout scandal rocked NYRA’s management, leading to the dismissal of CEO Charles Hayward and the move by Cuomo to reconstruct NYRA’s board of directors with political appointees. That NYRA board reconstruction, which has yet to begin, leaves too many questions unanswered about the future of the racing association for the comfort of many Breeders’ Cup directors. [Paulick Report]

Hmmm.  Seems like really odd reasoning to me, considering that the future of Monmouth was up in the air just a few months ago when last year's lessee Morris Bailey dropped out of the picture.  Now it's leased for five years to the NJ horsemen, and, though they claim to be on a path to profitability largely, one would surmise, due to the OTB location in Woodbridge as well as plans for several more locations and up to 12 outlets in restaurants and bars, can one really say that there are less questions about a track in a slots-less state with a hostile governor (even moreso I'd say than Cuomo) who had no qualms about the industry going under, then in New York?  The Cuomo takeover aside, and the questions it may (or may not) raise, NYRA surely isn't going anywhere, secure in its slots revenues.  Well, at least for the next three years anyway.

So, can't say I really understand that reasoning.  Just seems as if the Breeders' Cup doesn't want to have their event in New York, period.  And maybe the negative vibes and publicity from the security barn at the Belmont didn't help.

Well, that's fine, I'm not complaining, Monmouth is cool, hope it's still around for the event.  Had a great time there even in the rain last time.  Besides, I have a bit of a problem with Belmont as far as Breeders' Cup races go.  Think that championship route races should be around two turns and, as you probably know, all races there up to a mile and an eighth are run around one turn, which makes it more like a long sprint race as far as I'm concerned.  Even the mile and a quarter Classic starts on the turn, making it a 1 1/2 turn race, if that.  I was talking to a buddy at Belmont on Saturday about this; he was saying that races should have turns, as many as possible.  (I know that some people in Europe decry the turns, say it causes injuries, but I think that applies more to sprinters running all out on hard dirt surfaces....though I could be wrong about that.)  That's where a lot of races are decided, and they test the agility of the animal and the split-second decision making of the jockey. 

We were discussing the matter of turns with respect to Frankel.  I don't really follow European racing unless I'm at the Arc, so I was surprised when I saw the replay of his win at Royal Ascot last week and saw that the race had zero turns; run down a straightaway.  And I was also surprised, considering all the lavish and adoring praise I was reading on Twitter the morning that he ran - including tweets placing him amongst the great horses of all time - to see that he's never run further than a mile, and never raced outside of his home turf in the UK.  So, with respect to Frankel being "great," as far as I'm concerned, he doesn't even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath...nor in the same paragraph as...

....Forego.  Or John Henry.  Because to me...and again, this is just my opinion....the truly "great" horses throughout history are the ones who accepted every challenge their connections could find - raced on different surfaces, at different distances, overcoming adversity, coming back to race at short intervals again and again and, in particular, conceding copious amounts of weight to worthy challengers.  (Or, at least, as in a case such as Niatross, who, as a standardbred, did not concede weight nor race at different distances, 37 wins in 39 attempts against top pacers at a myriad of tracks would qualify too.)  In other words, the kind of horse we don't see anymore, and will quite likely never again see in our lifetimes.  I feel really privileged to have been able to see those horses run.  And I can understand why those who are younger or newer to the game would toss "great" around for a horse like Frankel.  To me, he's shown that he's brilliant.  And I suppose one can use the word great.  But not great!  In my book, he hasn't even been given the chance to be great.  Even Zenyatta, who mostly stayed home in California to race on familiar ground against familiar opponents, was at least given that chance in her final start; and she rose to the occasion, even in defeat.   From what I've read about Frankel, he will not be given that chance.  And that's too bad.  Because maybe he really is great.  Not in my book though.

So, I think I'll end this post with what I consider to be some true greatness.  Watching these horses, the idea that Frankel, after 11 starts, has achieved a comparable level seems like a joke.

Top of the Slots

Genting announced in a statement that its Resort World racino:

..“has surpassed the Las Vegas Strip, Pennsylvania, Atlantic City, Connecticut and all other locales to become the single largest gross slot gaming revenue and tax-generating gaming property in all the United States.”   [TheDay.com]

Wow, seriously?  Right here at our own Big A?  In terms of revenue handed over to the state, it's not even close. 

According to Resorts World, the $40 million received by the state from the Aqueduct racino in May far exceeded the amounts other states collect from gaming operations.  The 41 Las Vegas Strip casinos contributed about $30 million to Nevada in April and the 12 casinos in Atlantic City paid $18.3 million to New Jersey, Resorts World reported.  Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resort Casinos together generated $28 million for Connecticut in May. [Daily Politics]

We haven't looked at the win per machine for awhile; remember it dropped off after the inflated numbers when there weren't that many machines during the soft opening.  Been a steady climb throughout the year, but just recently has it consistently exceeded the $380 per machine figure that NYRA used as an estimate on which to base its purses (since reduced at lower claiming levels after the New York Times decided that those prizes were behind the spate of breakdown on the inner track).  Last five weeks were $413/$380/$388/$371.  Gonna be close as to whether they can maintain that $380 number throughout the year; if you look at historical Yonkers data, April/May is just about the peak period of the year.

Nonetheless, it's a lot of money, really impressive on one level, kinda really depressing on another.  And Genting took the opportunity to tout the numbers and offer the first pushback from the racinos since Governor Cuomo threw ice cold water on the subsequently and suddenly mum NYGA's aspirations to get exclusive casino rights.   

  Genting officials said the May revenue figures bolster their argument that they are best suited to operate a full-fledged casinos.  “This is a partnership that works,” [RSNY President Michael] Speller said. [Daily News] 

Additionally, the Resorts World press release included this quote attributed to Representative Gary Pretlow, chairman of the Assembly Racing and Wagering Committee: 

“As New York State proceeds down the path of full legalized gaming, it is crucial that taxpayers and students not get shortchanged in the process....As evidenced by Resorts World’s May figures, the state’s education system greatly benefits from our current gaming structure. Any changes to that structure must ensure that students get more, not less, of the revenue that gaming brings to the state.” [Politics on the Hudson]

The governor however made it quite clear what he thinks of the racinos (a "scandal"), and I don't see where these numbers are going to change his mind.  He's probably thinking of all the additional revenue that could be flowing to the state if so much of it wasn't going to "subsidize" that damn horse racing industry.

Meanwhile, Cuomo's office has prepared the New York State Racing Franchise Accountability and Transparency Act of 2012.  That's the legislation that will effectively put him in control of NYRA for three years, thereby making it more....well....accountable and transparent.  And compliant, and subservient to his wishes and whims.   He could probably even score a primo box at Saratoga if, that is, he had any real interest in anything other than squeezing more money out of the arrangement.

It’s believed the proposed law will be adopted this week before the Legislature concludes business. However, it’s unknown when actual appointments to the NYRA board will be made.

The process of conducting required background checks of prospective appointees is time-consuming. {Saratogian]

And as the supreme head of NYRA, Cuomo might want to put the kibosh on any talk of Catskill OTB operating in the void left by the closure of NYC-OTB.  That would only erode all the hard work and significant gains that NYRA has made to attract on-track and online customers at the higher takeout rates they provide.  Capitol Confidential reports that the bill is on the agenda in both legislative houses. 

When NYC OTB went under, New York City GOP Senators, Andrew Lanza and Mary Golden caught flack from DC-37, the union representing the now-laid off OTB workers, for their voting with the majority not to rescue the organization.

If the GOP-controlled Senate were to support another OTB in New York, along with hiring back the DC-37 workers, it could go a long way toward repairing relations between the union the senators — always a good thing in an election year.

And we always know where the priorities of the GOP-controlled Senate lies.

Belmont Notes

Rather busy this week, so just a few miscellaneous notes on Belmont day.  I imagine many of you have read at least one of the hundreds of different accounts of the race and the day by professional and us amateur writers alike, so I'll try to add some stuff that just maybe you have not read elsewhere:

 - 85,811 people, wow.  Man, the people just kept pouring in all day, right up to the end.  This guy in my office got stood up by his buddy, he told me, and showed up just for the late Pick Three!  I got there by 10:30, definitely the earliest I've ever been at a track (not counting the barns, breakfast, or Thanksgiving).  The Head Chef joined me later, no way I was getting her out for the early double on this day.   Though there was still plenty of room in the Hempstead Ave lot and in the backyard (got prime spots in both), it was still far more crowded at that time than probably any other day of the year.  Knew it was going to get far more so, but I'd say it crested at around the 9th race, whereas I'd expect it to have done so an hour or two earlier.

It really was pretty packed; it was hard to navigate around.   Not at the betting windows though.  At least at the ones I used; didn't encounter a single line, either at a manned window or machine, that was more than one deep all day.  Anyone who was waiting to bet just wasn't trying hard enough.  Virtually always, at any track on any day in my rather long experience, one can find some place somewhere that doesn't have long lines.  On this Belmont day for me, it was the 2nd floor of the grandstand.  No one will give NYRA due credit of course, but one thing that will definitely discourage seldom-timers to come back is if they find themselves getting shut out. Similarly, there were concessions galore, and didn't notice any lines that were unmanageable; and none at all at a lot of small stations selling those 24 oz Heinekens for $15.

Only long lines I noticed there were 1) at the ladies rooms in the grandstand - though there were no lines whatsoever at some restroom trailers stationed in the backyard where the band was playing, as well as at an ample colony of porto-potties there;  2) at the porto-potties just out back of the grandstand building.  I was wondering why there were guys standing on those lines considering that the men's rooms were pretty much line-free.  I figured it out when I smelled all the pot smoke steadily emanating from there; and 3) at the ATM's.  Those lines were really long.  I only have a certain amount of sympathy however for those who run out of cash at 3PM on Belmont day.

All in all, it was a pretty fantastic day.  The weather cooperated, bringing only two or three very brief and very light showers after the forecast had grown ominous early in the day.

 - Once again, had to smile upon opening the NY Times on Sunday.  I don't really want to spend my time regularly commenting on, and criticizing the tone and tenor of their racing coverage.  But the way the paper flaunts its posture towards the sport is just so blatant and shameless, it's hard to let it pass without a chuckle and a comment.  This year, the Belmont had to share the front page of the sports section with all of the other (supposedly) big events that happened on Saturday - some tennis tournament, some boxing match, some hockey game (are they still playing?) (not anymore!!), Mets-Yankees (remember when that was a novelty before it was ruined by excessive interleague play?  Told you that would get old.. )   Inside, there was a full page of coverage in addition to a cute piece by Ryan Goldberg about a group of track regulars.  There on the 5th page of the sports section was Joe Drape's article on the race....and then a sidebar on the right.  One might expect that there you would read brief summaries on the other four graded stakes races.

But no.  Instead, there was an article by Walt Bogdanich - Congress Seeks Information on Doping.  This was taken from The Rail blog...it was posted there at 3:45 PM on Belmont day.  So, while the rest of us were enjoying the day at the track, this guy was tirelessly working to remind us of how corrupt and unethical the sport is.  And again, it's not like I don't think it's a news item worthy of being reported.  But, in the Sunday sports section on the day after the Belmont?  Really?  It's like, lest anyone think that this was actually a good day for the sport....or that there's any such thing....get a load of this.  And, just for good measure, a capsule underneath, led in bold lettering by: Fractured Leg in Undercard.  For heaven's sake.

 - An amazing betting card; in the 13 races, only three horses went off less than 2-1, none lower than Winter Memories at 1.15-to-1 in the Just A Game.  As you may have surmised from my picks, I got off to a fast start and spent the rest of the day giving it back.  Not actually a bad result, not complaining at all.  Got a big boost when the early double paid $44 for a 2-1 favorite and a 3-1 shot; not too shabby.  I tweeted at one point that if Michael Matz had a good day, I wouldn't.  Well, I still actually did, but, you know..

I loved Hungry Island in the aforementioned Just A Game, and was alive to her in the double with Caixa Electronica.  But I wasn't feeling nearly so confident as post time approached.  One would think that, with all the money in the pools, the concept of a horse being 'live' or 'dead' on the board wouldn't apply.  But something seemed wrong.  Hungry Island was the second choice in the morning line, and had defeated Tapitsfly fairly easily at Churchill.  So, it didn't at all ring true to me that Tapitsfly was a solid second choice over Hungry Island.  Why is it that I always seem to be right when I have that queasy feeling from the tote?  I guess someone knew that Ramon would take Tapitsfly out to the lead in 23 2/5 and then basically cut a 23 second per quarter pace home (actually 22.86 to come home for good measure).  Nobody was catching her.

And actually, it was almost as if "they" knew in the Belmont too, as Union Rags was favored for much of the pre-race period over eventual slight choice Dullahan, who was 9-5 in the revised morning line and seemed the clear choice on paper.  Man, I was dead wrong about the winner, who I gave no shot.  I did feel a little good though about discarding Dullahan and ending up on 20-1 Atigun, who gave me ample excitement turning for home.  Thought I was solid for at least my place bet, but Paynter held on unexpectedly in a grim and gritty performance.  As for the winner, all props to him, but I'm not buying the notion that this means he's back to his juvenile form and that he now jumps to the head of the three-year old class.  The result of the mile and a half race just does not, in my opinion, have much relevance to the relative ability of these horses at "normal" distance.  So I look forward to betting against him again.  OK, that's it for now, back to work..

Belmont Day

In the 2nd, Love to Run (5-1) seems to have improved at three for the live Kimmel barn, and makes his third start of the form cycle.  Ran a close second in his 3yo debut to the Toddster's Street Brawl, who won impressively in allowance company in his next start; and the race has produced five winners and two seconds overall.  Last effort was a traffic disaster, uncomfortable on the rail throughout before checking and dropping back sharply.  Still gathered his senses and finished with a lot of interest.  Goes back to Alvarado here, and may like the stretchout in distance.  Son of Pulpit is out of a Quiet American mare who's a half to the dam of the multiple graded winner Sassy Image.  Wild Target (2-1) has had his chances for the red hot Kenneally barn.  Money-burner, or ready to break through here?  Escape Artist (3-1) has two good tries this distance for another ridiculously hot trainer in Chad Brown.

In the 4th, I like the form on Moonstock (4-1); don't mind the time between races given the steady series of drills on the Saratoga training track.  Ran second last out to Where's the Baby, who won his next in allowance company; and ahead of Arc Above, 2nd and then 1st in his next two. Two races back, he was way wide on both turns and did quite well to finish third in his first race in ten months.  I'm a little queasy on his chances because Mott has been really cold here lately, but maybe that's too much information.  (He's been really bad though, well-bet horses well beaten up the track.)  Ur (12-1) was carried wide into the stretch in his last and finished OK; could outrun his odds here with a kinder trip from a slightly better post.  Current Design (7-2) moved up on the Keeneland Poly, which bodes well for his turf debut for the aforementioned sharp Chad Brown barn.

In the 5th, Carbon County (7-2) has run well off a layoff in the past, and tries to do so here for Mike Hushion, 30% in the 61-180 day layoff category.  Moved up to allowance company at Tampa in his last, in February, and ran a close second against what's proven to be a very good field.  Under Control, the winner,  moved up in allowance class at Keeneland and just missed; and the 3rd and 4th place finishers won their next tries.  Ramon Dominguez wins at a 41% rate for this barn, so they must mean business here.  Adirondack Dancer (2-1) is the one to beat; will have to contend with an outside post.

In the 6th, Brimstone Island (5-1) continues to improve after being claimed for a mere $16k early this year.   Found himself head and head with Paynter last out; expect Xavier Perez to revert to the stalking style that served him better two races back, as well as in his prior one turn races.  Lots of trouble in his comment lines; think he can be there with a cleaner trip and at a fair price.   Inflation Target (4-1) has burned some money since graduating, and figures to be close again.  Teeth of the Dog (2-1) will get bet because he ran in the Preakness and ran 3rd at 53-1 in the Wood.  I just don't like him.

In the 8th, the G1 Just A Game, Hungry Island (5-2) looks like your typical Shug mare who starts to get really good as her four-year season wears on.  Comes off a career-best effort winning the G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile last out with a powerful brush in the stretch.  Sure to be second choice with Winter Memories (6-5) in the race, but I strongly prefer Hungry Island in this spot.  The favorite was fine winning her season debut against a moderate crew at best.  Think she could be running into a buzzsaw here.  Tapitsfly (3-1) continued gamely for 2nd as the top choice powered by at CD....could be worth a shot using her for second in the exacta if the price is right.

The Belmont lost much of its betting allure along with all its other allure when I'll Have Another scratched.  Favorite role goes to Dullahan (9-5) who, at first glance, may look quite logical at a mile and a half off his close for 3rd in the Derby.  Keep in mind though that, while it may have looked like he was closing fast, he came home in a lethargic 25 4/5 seconds.   I don't see any reason why Dullahan should thrive at this distance anymore than his half-brother Mine That Bird did.  Paynter (7-2) earned a freaky Beyer against a short field of moderate talent (the fact that I picked second place Brimstone Island notwithstanding) at a mile and a sixteenth.  Do you really think he's gonna stay this distance?   I don't.   Don't mean to pick on Michael Matz, but I just don't like Union Rags (3-1) either.  Has shown no sign that he's progressed from his two-year old form.  So, one might think I'd be psyched since I don't like the top three choices.   Problem is it's slim pickens amongst the rest.  So here's a not overly enthusiastic vote for Street Life (8-1), who at least is moving in the right direction, and seemed to like both Belmont and the addition of blinkers in his fast closing third in the Peter Pan.  Room for further improvement in only his 6th career start for Chad Brown.  He's been hot, did I mention that?  Best of luck everyone, and have a great Belmont day!

All the News That's Fit to Manipulate

I went to the NY Times website on Tuesday night.  I was looking for what I figured was the inevitable pre-Belmont front page article by Joe Drape and his partner-in-crime Walt Bogdanich; with their latest exposé in a continuing and, at least in Drape's case, long-running series of similar exposés on drugs, cheating trainers, and dead horses.  But there was nothing there.  Scrolled down and noticed down in the sports section nestled about 2/3rds down the home page this story here.  A little more on Doug O'Neill, but mostly about J. Paul Reddam, the owner of I'll Have Another as well as Cash Call, the predatory loan company with a shady record both ethically and in the eyes of regulators in some states.  Nothing new here to be sure, and I've made allusions to it on this site in the past.

So, I have to say that I was utterly flabbergasted when I saw the piece, by Richard Sandomir, who does a fine job commenting on TV sports coverage in his usual role at the paper, right there on the front page.  The article is perfectly legitimate and timely as a background piece about an owner of the Triple Crown prospect with a record of unsavory business practices.  But it's only front page news here because the editorial staff of the paper determined that it fits with its agenda of portraying the sport in the most negative light possible.  And the Times sure has no hesitation to make that agenda clear.  It's almost laughable at this point when you see a story like this hogging front page space.

Saw another article posted on the site on Wednesday night, this one in the City Room section and entitled At Belmont Park, a Clinic's Doctor Gets Track Workers Back on Their Feet.  And I thought, oh good, there's a positive, feel-good article, about a tireless doctor working arduously around the clock to help out people in need.  But it's not; it's really less about the doctor and far more about the miserable conditions that cause people to go see him - rat bites, bed bugs, bad air, bad food ("possibly from eating food left for hours in barns swarming with flies"), the flies, giant dung heaps, broken jaws from horses swinging their heads.  It's a bleak and depressing piece that paints a horrifying picture of conditions on the backstretch, and should I have expected anything else?  Figured it might even land on the front page (it didn't).

Profoundly worse in my view though is the way the paper is reporting on the revelation, first reported as the lead front page headline story on Tuesday and mentioned in the prior post, that the New York Gaming Association (NYGA) contributed $2 million to the Committee to Save New York, a pro-business group closely associated with Governor Cuomo, right around the time that he officially made expanded gaming a priority; within days in fact of a op-ed piece in favor of casinos that he wrote for the Times.  The paper followed that up with an article by Nicholas Confessore on Wednesday in which the Cuomo administration, and Mayor Bloomberg, defended the governor's ties to the group.

And today, Danny Hakim writes (based on a report in the Wall Street Journal) that three Genting executives personally pitched Cuomo on the now-dead Big A convention center at a fund raiser. 

The event was attended by real estate and gambling executives, as well as Jennifer Cunningham, a communications strategist who consults for Genting. The convention proposal was made by K. T. Lim, the chairman of Genting, and Christian Goode, the company’s lobbyist.

The fund-raiser was not originally disclosed on the governor’s public schedules, The Journal reported; the omission, a spokesman for Mr. Cuomo told the newspaper, was “inadvertent.” [NYT]

This is all well and good.  However, the Times fails, in any of these articles, to mention Cuomo's comments at his Monday news conference, which I imagine that Hakim and/or Confessore probably attended (and if they didn't, they surely are aware of what he said).  To repeat, the governor said of NYGA's hopes to gain exclusive rights for expanded casinos at its existing racetrack racinos: 

“I 100 percent oppose that. One hundred percent. I believe it should be an open competition where we bring in the best companies and I believe we should get the best deal for the taxpayer that we can get....I don’t believe the racinos have any claim for primacy.

And then he went on to call the current racino arrangement a "scandal," implying that taxpayers are not getting their fair share of the proceeds.

Now, the Times is clearly raising fair and important points here.  It's surely disturbing that a company like Genting can get face time with the governor by virtue of their campaign donations.  And the idea of an advocacy group like NYGA donating unlimited and unregulated sums to a group closely allied with Cuomo reeks of the kind of same-old/same-old special interest influence that has ruled New York politics and that the governor has pledged to distance himself from.  It's only because of the Times' reporting that we even know about the donation, as they are not required by law to be attributed to the donator. 

However, it's clear that NYGA was formed for one purpose, and one purpose only - to get casino gambling for themselves.  On Monday....prior to the publication of the original article....Cuomo made it entirely clear that this is not going to happen on his watch.  To me, that changes the entire context of this story....and not in a way that the Times particularly wanted to see I'm sure, as it runs squarely counter to the point that they are obviously trying to make - that the governor is under the sway of groups donating to his cause.

So, the Times has apparently decided to simply ignore the governor's remarks.  And that is just wrong on many levels.  This just HAS to be reported - it's an integral part of the story, whether they like it or not.  To not report it is either incompetence, or, even worse but far more likely in my view, a case of the Times manipulating the news so that it better fits with its agenda.  Without trying to be too over-dramatic here, that's something I'd expect to find, for example, in the state-controlled Syrian press rather than in the most prominent newspaper in our country of unfettered free press and expression.  It's unfathomable and unconscionable.  In my opinion.

And now, enough of that.  13 races on Saturday, full fields galore, and you know me, I'm as excited (or more) for those restricted claimers on the grass as for the supporting stakes.  So, time to get to work.

Pop Goes the NYGA

If you heard a loud sound, like a giant bubble bursting, early Monday afternoon, it was probably that of the New York Gaming Association, whose hopes of exclusive control of expanded gaming in the state virtually went up in flames with these five words spoken by Governor Cuomo:  "I 100 percent oppose that."  The governor, whose impressive power was very much in display on a day when Mayor Bloomberg and NYC Police Commissioner Ray Kelly quickly fell into line on his proposal to stem the obscene volume of NYC marijuana arrests under their watch, was referring to the idea being pushed by NYGA that new casinos should be limited to current racino sites.  "You guys got that point?" he asked, almost mockingly, for emphasis before launching into his slapdown. 

  “I 100 percent oppose that. One hundred percent. I believe it should be an open competition where we bring in the best companies and I believe we should get the best deal for the taxpayer that we can get....I don’t believe the racinos have any claim for primacy.

  I can't imagine that the racinos have a prayer if this governor is so opposed.   And they surely must be lamenting the $2 million they gave to the Committee to Save New York, a business group with ties to Cuomo which actively campaigned for his economic program; that, according to today's NY Times front page investigatory story (Joe Drape's inevitable pre-Belmont bombshell will have to wait for another day I guess...I'd say Thursday).   (And, by the way, if the Times was trying to make the point that the governor was under the influence of that money, this statement pretty much blunted that, and just prior to its publication day too.  Wonder if the governor's men had advance word of the story?)

It will be interesting to read NYGA's reaction.  Thus far, all we've gotten from them has been a steady flow of smug, self-congratulatory canned propaganda about the revenue and jobs they've created and how socially responsible they are, but this changes the game and fast.  If and when it becomes apparent that the racinos will be excluded from the casino sweepstakes, you can expect that NYGA will pivot and become a vociferous opponent of the casino referendum.  With their very existence potentially on the line with the prospect of competing full-scale casinos, and with the Citizens Union decision permitting unlimited donations to SuperPACs also applicable to issue campaigns, a company with the resources of Genting could literally try to buy the referendum's defeat.  But hey, that's the way this Supreme Court says it should be, right?

Also during the press conference, I was reading tweets reporting that Cuomo referred to the current racino arrangement as a "scandal."  Of course, Twitter is highly limited as far as substantive reporting (though quite proficient in reporting out-of-context unsubstantive tidbits over and over and over again), so I was curious to hear exactly what the governor was referring to.  If you listen to the entire statement, as I did here, starting at around the 9:00 mark, it's quite clear what his point was. 

  "I do not want to be in a situation where the assumption is that these tracks have the casinos and we have to figure out how to get money from them.  The current racino situation in this state is a scandal, in my opinion.  You try to find the rhyme or reason on racinos, and why taxpayers get what they get, it defies logic." 

To me, this fits right into the context of his remarks a few months ago when he asked: "What is it worth to this state to have this industry? And how much do we subsidize them? And do we want to?"   Seems clear that the governor is irritated with the current arrangement.  Fortunately for the tracks, their revenue cuts are written into the law of the state and cannot be changed merely by executive edict.  It would instead take an act of a compliant legislature under the sway of a governor who seems to get most of want he wants, and mostly all of what he really wants.

Cuomo also spoke about the collapse of talks with Genting over a convention center at Aqueduct, which you can hear at the beginning of the abovelinkedto video.  Basically, Genting planned to subsidize the convention center with racino money, but wanted a guarantee that that money flow would not be threatened by a casino competitor in NYC.  Cuomo would have none of that.  Instead, he'll just find some other company who is willing to foot the entire bill for a money-losing convention center as long as they can operate a money-making casino.  Which I imagine shouldn't be too hard to find. 

Getnick and Getnick Again and Again

Before we were interrupted by the holiday weekend, there was the latest news item regarding NYRA, this one involving a dispute with their former integrity counsel Getnick and Getnick.  Longtime LATG readers and followers of the NY political scene are surely familiar with these guys; if you enter 'Getnick' in the search box in the upper left hand corner of this blog, you'll get a long list of posts, quite well-written if I do say so myself, going back as far as 2005.  I'd forgotten, until this reader mentioned it, about Neil Getnick's peripheral involvement in the Friends of New York/Empire Racing affair - he/she probably saw the same post that I did that came up on top of the search.  (Getnick had asserted that Tim Smith basically told him what Friends was up to back in 2004. Ah, those were the days, eh?)

Just about everyone was excoriated over Getnick's $125,000 per month contract as NYRA's integrity counsel.  NYRA was criticized for agreeing to pay anyone that much given their financial condition.  G&G was criticized for conflict of interest - it was after all their glowing report that allowed NYRA to emerge from a federal prosecution and go on to win the franchise....thus allowing Getnick to get the lucrative gig.  And, if you Google 'NYRA Getnick,' it returns, right on top (at least for me, could be different for you depending on what highly personal information of yours Google has), is a post of mine linking to a NY Post column in which Frederik U. Dicker breathlessly tells us how Joe Bruno was investigating Governor Spitzer's ties to the firm.  And haven't the lives of those two arch-enemies changed since then!  I would think that they could now perhaps find some common ground and share a laugh over a beer reminiscing over old times.  (Or....maybe not.)

Also, if we go way back to that abovementioned post from 2005, we see that Neil Getnick said that he was charging NYRA a mere $5 million for its work as the federal monitor during the prosecution. 

So, NYRA has been quite the cash cow for Getnick.  But now, the two sides are embroiled in a legal fight over NYRA's firing of G&G in March of 2011.  The two were squabbling over that $125,000 a month fee that NYRA had stopped paying in full after the arrangement was criticized by Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.   Matt Hegarty reports in the Form: 

  In court filings on Thursday, Getnick and Getnick’s legal counsel argued that the requirements of the franchise agreement NYRA had reached with the state prohibited NYRA from making a unilateral decision to fire the company. The company asked the court to reject NYRA’s argument and reiterated that Getnick and Getnick is still owed the money under the five-year agreement. [DRF]

The kicker here is a heretofore unreleased Getnick report purporting to contain details of two integrity investigations that were underway when the firm was fired.  Now, there is a dispute between the companies - and in newspaper reports I've read - as to when that report was delivered; whether it precipitated the firing or came afterwards.  However, Hegarty reports that Getnick's court filings themselves state that it was "delivered to NYRA’s board on June 13, 2011, three months after the firm had been fired."

If that is indeed the case, you have to take the report and whatever it says for what it's worth.  I mean, since "corporations are people," in the view of the now official GOP presidential candidate, as well as the conservative majority in the Supreme Court (one of the keys in the Citizens United ruling that rules and roils today's elections....and you really might want to read Jeffrey Toobin's controversial New Yorker article on the subject), then think about how you would react if you were involved in a long, complicated relationship that ended in bitter acrimony with you as the jilted lover.  You'd be pretty pissed I imagine, even besides the $5million and $125k per month.   Who knows what you'd say and do in reaction.  We don't know what's in the report, and may never know if NYRA prevails in its argument that it constitutes attorney-client privilege.  So I'm not saying that what's in there isn't true.  Just that, again, it has to be taken for what it's worth.

NYRA meanwhile is going on its merry way preparing for the Belmont Stakes which will draw a large crowd that will mostly go home disappointed when I'll Have Another loses.  Plenty of promotions and contests, new transportation options, and, in keeping with the theme of the day, announcing a strict security and testing protocols being implemented by the Racing and Wagering Board.  The Board can't keep track of the right takeout, but they can sure put the hammer down on all those habitual Belmont Stakes cheaters.  A buddy suggested that these measures are aimed at Doug O'Neill; but I say the Board is doing anything and everything it can to distance itself from NYRA and distract everyone from their own incompetence in the takeout snafu. 

We won't be able to tell for sure, but I do wonder if the Belmont day attendance will be at all adversely affected by all the negative publicity surrounding NYRA.  Not that it should have much to do with it at all.  But, I dunno, when an entity is the subject of such a constant barrage of negative news (all portrayed in the worst possible light), and is bashed over and over and over again, by newspapers, regulatory agencies, and politicians at all levels going up to the governor himself, it has to create some kind of a stench.  Whether it's smelly enough to keep people (other than Governor Cuomo) away, we probably won't know.  But it sure as hell can't help.

Cuomo Gets the Crown

I think it took about ten minutes after NYRA got a one week deadline to agree to, for three years (unless everyone forgets about when it's supposed to sunset), cede control to Governor Cuomo. And I think it was both sides, not just NYRA, that was anxious to get it done.  "Lawyers have gotten rich on the relationship between NYRA and the state....We decided not to do that," the governor said.  I think I'll take some credit here for writing last week that the letter to NYRA was more bark than bite.  The state didn't have a sufficient case to revoke the franchise and they knew it.  With a bulldog lawyer in NYRA's corner, they used the letter to pressure NYRA into this deal rather than embark on what promised to be long litigation (that would have given me great subject matter for months if not years).  According to Jim Odato in the Times Union, Cuomo even threw NYRA a bone to encourage a settlement, promising a cut of casino revenues if the state ends up legalizing gambling halls via a constitutional amendment.

So, now, in the spirit of this new alliance, and with all the lofty talk of cooperation we heard at the press conference announcing the deal, Cuomo will definitely go to the Belmont, right?

The governor said he'll attend the Long Island race if his schedule permits.  [NY Post]

  Yeah, but....I mean....what else does a governor have on his schedule for a Saturday afternoon?

Besides, now, after getting what he wants, as he usually does, Cuomo can come and ascend to the announcer's booth (out of the way, Durkin), gaze down to survey his conquest, and bask in the adoration of his loyal and obedient subjects, including those who traveled to Albany on Tuesday to kiss his butt.  Such as NYTHA president Richard Violette Jr:  "We are excited we have a Governor who has announced he will champion our industry."  (I wonder what his harness counterpart Joe Faraldo would have said.)  And Barry Ostrager, president of the NY Thoroughbred Breeders: ""It is a great comfort to the New York thoroughbred breeders to know that Governor Cuomo has reaffirmed the State's commitment to support the New York breeding program..."   And NYRA Board member (for now) John Hendrickson: " Governor Cuomo is to be commended for his vocal support of racing, and for bringing all parties together for a positive resolution."

And indeed, the governor said (mostly) the right things. 

  "As the upcoming Belmont Stakes shows, the racing industry is a vital part of New York State 's culture and economy, attracting millions of dollars in tourism revenue from across the nation and supporting thousands of jobs,"

He did also refer to $675 million issued by the state to subsidize the industry; and while it may be a matter of semantics as to whether the tracks' share of slots money constitutes taxpayer or corporate subsidy at this point, Cuomo has obviously succeeded in framing it his way.  But, in any event, has the governor suddenly become enlightened as to the "net positive" that the industry is to the state?  Or is he simply giving himself three years to manipulate the finances more to the state's advantage and place casinos in the locations of his choosing before he's off to bigger and better things?

I certainly know how a buddy who is an owner/breeder of NY-breds feels. 

This is what can be accomplished in the first six months, god knows what else they can do in three years:

goodbye Big A, convention center scam full speed ahead

Racing season April-November,

spa season expansion 6/15-labor day

Increase in takeout

Elimination of "subsidy"

Reduction in purses.

reduction in breeders fund

Belmont Stakes run on Polytrack

unilateral elimination of Lasix

3 day race week

restriction in frequency of horses running

multi billion dollar backstretch "improvements" made by NYS Dormitory Agency or some other politically connected entity 

Maybe you can quibble with some of these points - a reduction of race dates, though maybe not to the extent expressed here, actually makes some sense, so you can probably cross those ones off.  But I'd surely wager that you can kiss the Big A goodbye.  And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see any of the other predictions come to pass, not a one.  Would you?

Just amazing that we've reached this point, and that things at NYRA deteriorated so quickly.  I don't know what could have done about the breakdowns....though, in hindsight, NYRA surely could have acted quicker when it became apparent that something was amiss instead of merely acting puzzled and insisting that the track was safe.  Something, anything, to show some concern, even a symbolic one - a one-day shutdown of racing to inspect the track, or an investigation along the lines of the one in which it was pressured into.  But the final straw was that ridiculous takeout snafu, a lousy 1%.  I know you takeout guys don't like when I minimize that by referring to it as dribs and drabs that most affected horseplayers didn't even miss (and likely lost it back if they did).....but its impact on New York racing, and on the career of at least one good man who had the best interest of the game at heart, has been far, far, far more profound than that $8.6 million figure was made to sound.   Oh, man.