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Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Wednesday Picks

I spend far too much time trying to handicap the weather this time of year.  Last night, saw a big blob of green with yellow patches meandering in the general direction of Saratoga.  As has seemingly been the case thus far for the most part this meet however, the system broke up and skirted elsewhere, sparing the track from the worst.   However, the perceived threat was just enough to throw me off my game, as obsessed - horrified would be the better word - with the prospect of sloppy tracks as I am.  Not too thrilling of a betting card under any conditions though, I must say, which is what happens when one tries to maintain a six-day a week schedule these days, no matter where you are.

In the 10th, Spielberg (10-1) ships up from New Jersey for trainer (and owner in this case) Peter Walder.  Like Jason Servis who we mentioned the other day, he's a high percentage Jersey-based guy who rarely makes the trip up here; just seven times in the last five years, and no wins (though a nice stakes placing with Lacie Slew last September).  This three-year old son of Simon Pure has been moving in the right direction since being claimed four races back, with a steady advance on the Beyer scale, if only an incremental one class-wise.  Has been given a breather lately after a long stretch of racing, and comes off an off-the-layoff second as the favorite at Monmouth, beaten by a big class dropper for Kelly Breen.  Another, shorter, layoff since then, and three recent drills punctuated by a nice five furlong move on Saturday.  Have the feeling that Walder, 20% in the 31-60 day layoff category, has this one primed to continue his improvement in this spot.  Gets Maragh, who won on Spielberg twice off the Walder claim, and who wins at 25% for this barn.  Big Creek (5-2) ran third in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine for the Toddster in April; one to beat if he can translate that form to dirt.  Dan and Sheila (3-1) also drops for Pletcher but must overcome outside post.

In the 6th at Del Mar, where I don't even have to look at the weather radar (and where I turn when I have misgivings about the weather here), Panettone (7-2) drops in class off an improved third at Betfair Hollywood Park with blinkers added for trainer Dean Pederson.  He was two lengths behind Chapman's Peak, who came back with a solid placing in an allowance at Del Mar, and three lengths in front of Magic Beam, who then romped on this track in this very class.  Of course, those results alone don't mean that Panettone would take to the Del Mar surface as well....but he graduated here in his first start last July, so he's already shown he can handle it.  Seems a routine selection; his morning line would be a bargain here in my opinion.  Best of luck, wherever you are and whatever the weather, and have a great day.


jk said...

Former AEG lackey Malcolm Smith is running for NYC mayor as a republican. Maybe he will bring back NYC OTB and all of its glory.

Alan Mann said...

^^Tough to be a Democrat in this state, ain't it? Embarrassing..

steve in nc said...

Did you bet a bundle on Spielberg or is that the stable. He's opened much lower than the DD payoffs would indicate. I like him too but I want him to drift up some to make it worth it.

Alan Mann said...

No, not me, though I did contribute in my own small way. I guess Walder had some extra cash after he won the second!