Roman Ruler Out of Sprint

- Bob Baffert told TVG that Roman Ruler has developed a foot problem that will keep him out of the Sprint. It’s not related to the quarter crack that plagued the colt earlier in the year. Baffert feels that it happened during his last work at Santa Anita, explaining that the track gets very hard after it gets wet, as it had last week. He theorized that perhaps Rock Hard Ten’s foot problem that has delayed his trip to New York could have also been caused by the same unforgiving surface.

As for Rock Hard Ten, he suffered what is being described as a “minor foot bruise.” If you listen to Richard Mandella, it was almost a non-event

"We galloped (yesterday) with a foot bandage," said Mandella, who often likes to gallop his horses barefoot anyway. "We found it (Friday) morning, took off the shoe and poulticed it. The only thing that has really changed is shipping. … We're in good shape." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

For a horse for whom conditioning is a concern to some considering his one prep race after a seven month layoff, you would think that any setback is still a setback. I’ve read varying accounts of his race in the Goodwood. He had a good trip in a four horse field, but if you listen to Gary Stevens, he was just toying with Roman Ruler that day, saying “he actually only ran an eighth of a mile."

- Singletary has a big supporter for the Mile in handicapper/author Steve Davidowitz.

"Singletary was a revelation winning [the Oak Tree Mile] from off the pace......[Chatlos] is bringing Singletary to Belmont in career best form. … Can he beat the streaking Leroidesanimaux? A good question that might be posed the other way: Can Leroidesanimaux beat the Singletary we saw at Santa Anita?" [LA Times]

I don’t hear from Davidowitz often these days, and I’ve always found his opinion to be worth hearing, so I’ll take another look in a race that I’d just about conceded to Leroidesanimaux. Singletary closed from last in the Oak Tree Mile in a race that did not have a particularly quick pace. He ran each quarter faster than the previous one, culminating in a sprint home in :22 1/5. Keep in mind though that the slow pace enabled him to stay well within striking distance despite being last, getting his first half in a leisurely :48 3/5. It was a similar effort to his close third in the Oak Tree last year which set him up for a win in the Mile. Of course, he didn’t have to face the King last year.

- Owner Bruce Lunsford is talking in extremely ambitious terms about his Juvenile favorite First Samurai, even suggesting he has a shot at the top prize.

"If we win it the way we just won the Champagne, and nobody is really impressive in the older-horse category, could we just be in the game?"

Without pause, he was off comparing his 2-year-old with more established horses. He surmised that First Samurai would have been second to BC Sprint favorite Lost in the Fog if he had tried the Grade I King's Bishop. [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Emphasis is mine; whoa boy, one thing at a time! It may not have been the greatest field, but it included some decent three year olds including Super Derby winner The Daddy.

- Irish jock Mick Kinane had some interesting things to say to the UK's Times Online about some disadvantages faced by the European horses and jockeys when they face the American horses on their own turf in the Breeders’ Cup, starting with the general observation that the American racing is very repetitive and is run on similar tracks all the time, so their horses are used to it.

Many Breeders’ Cup races go badly for the European raiders right from the start. They lose valuable ground as they come out of the stalls and find themselves many lengths off the leaders before they have gone a furlong. It is this slow-starting tendency for which British and Irish trainers receive most criticism. Seemingly no amount of preparation is going to change things.

“In America a bell goes as the gates open and the horses there jump to the sound,” says Kinane. “If for any reason the gates didn’t open, the horses would burst through because they leap forward when they hear that bell. Our horses listen to the unaccustomed sound and then jump. They are immediately behind and it’s very hard to train them the American way for just one day.”

The local jockeys ride what is known as “acey-deucy”, with one stirrup leather shorter than the other, because the tracks are on the turn much of the way and they want to lean in towards the rails to make sure they go the shortest way round.

Kinane has tried this method and rejected it. The muscles of his American rivals have become attuned to this unnatural practice, whereas for himself, Frankie Dettori, Kieren Fallon and the others on this side of the Atlantic, cramp would be much too big a danger.

Kinane will be riding Azamour, who figures to be one of the favorites in the Turf, and he said that Belmont poses a potential problem for his mount given his tendency to get unnerved.

“The exit from the paddock to the course is one of the noisiest in America....You have to go through a tunnel and there is plenty of vocal support when you come out of it. Horses can get on edge and then they are out on the track a long time before they start loading.”

Saturday Night Notes - Oct 22

- Thanks to those who commented about Lost in the Fog, especially for not mentioning that I also made a case for Bellamy Road as lone speed in the Derby. That didn’t quite work out, did it? I must admit that when I think about basing the whole day of work on singling him, I don’t have the same feeling of security that I did on Travers Day. So I’ll spend a little time in the bathroom and take a closer look. Regarding Walter’s suggestion of Roman Ruler, he reminds me a bit of Precisionist, the 1985 Sprint winner who I mentioned before as having won off a layoff; he also had been routing if I recall correctly, though not as many consecutive times as Roman Ruler has.

- The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Tuesday’ congressional hearing has encouraged jockeys that may have been hesitant to criticize the guild's aggressive management to speak out.

"Obviously we made some mistakes in the guild with leadership," said jockey Robby Albarado, a guild senator. "But I'm sure we'll get together as a whole -- as one -- and make some decisions in the future."

"The next step is try to, you know, maybe get (Gertmenian) out of the guild and look for some other proper representation," said longtime guild member Bill Troilo.
.......
"If it's all legitimate, we're definitely going to have to make some changes," said veteran jockey Mark Guidry, a guild senator. "We've got to do what we've got to do as an organization."

- Better Talk Now’s rabbit Shake the Bank is in the Turf, with Motivator’s withdrawal due to an injury that will signal the end of his career. High Fly is out of the Sprint with a non-career threatening injury; Jerry Bailey will move to Roman Ruler, which should make reader Walter happy I think.

- The Form’s Mike Welsch’s work of the day -

First Samurai, five furlongs in 1:00.16: With Jerry Bailey up, First Samurai went along willingly to the stretch, at which point he cocked his head to the outside and tried to lug in slightly while angled inside the outer set of dogs. He finished aggressively and galloped out relatively well into a moderate headwind, pulling up six furlongs in 1:14.19 after posting internal fractions of 12.22 seconds, 24.13, 35.64, and 47.60. As good a work as one could expect without company and with the dogs set so far out in the course.

- It’s a good thing that the Breeders’ Cup wasn’t today, as the weather was rainy, cold and miserable and I don’t even want to look at what the crowd there was. It didn’t include me. There was an interesting winner on Friday in the 4th, a two-year old maiden race on the turf. Barclay Tagg sent out Nice Nelly, a filly from the last crop of Seattle Slew out of a multiple stakes winning Storm Cat mare, Pleasant Temper. 8-1 in the morning line off an awful dirt debut, she was sent off as the 5-2 second choice and was multiple lengths in front all the way. No turf racing with the rain today, and I doubt we’ll see much on the grass all week.

With that in mind, Billy Turner has entered Highland Cat in Wednesday’s 9th race, a maiden special at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, as a Main Track Only entrant, figuring the race will come off the grass. He’s 4th on the list, so we would need at least that many to scratch out if the race comes off. If not, Turner is looking at a 7 furlong race scheduled for the main track on Friday.

Breeders Cup Notes - Juveniles

- I haven’t yet gotten past the juvenile races that lead off the Breeders’ Cup yet. These are the races that were scheduled to precede the Pick Six because they are supposedly less contentious than the others, save the Sprint. The Sprint was strictly a ratings call I’m sure, as Lost in the Fog is probably the most marketable horse of the day from NBC’s standpoint; I’m kinda surprised that the race isn’t even later than the sixth. But I think both of these juvenile races are quite competitive even with the presence of the scary First Samurai in the Juvenile.

I had to look back at my own blog post to recall why I’m so gung-ho on betting against Folklore in the Juvenile Fillies. Her running lines sure do look good, suggesting the possibility that she’s a filly that blossomed in the Matron and is capable of repeating or exceeding that performance in the Breeders’ Cup. So I took a peek back at my account of what I’d witnessed:

Folklore’s 14 length win in the Matron is going to look good in the Form on Breeders Cup day, and should attract a lot of money. If that’s the case, then there’s at least one favorite I’ll be betting against that day..... I watched from midstretch as she came home widening her lead under urging, I took a peek at the rest of the field, and they looked like a bunch of drunken sailors, absolutely staggering towards the wire. That field was finished, and it was more a matter of everyone stopping cold then Folklore sprinting away from them.

OK, now I remember. That was also the race in which favored India slammed her head in the gate and backed up to last. As for Adieu, she’s unbeaten except for the Adirondack, and Pletcher says she didn’t like the track that day. [He explained on TVG today that the track was lightly scraped the track in anticipation of a thunder storm and that Velasquez came back and said 'you can throw the race out..she didn't handle the track.'] A young filly is always entitled to a bad day. She's a bit light in the Beyers, and she didn’t exactly fly the last eighth when winning the Frizette.

So I think it's time for an upset in the Juvenile Filles; the favorite has won three years in a row (Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled, Storm Flag Flying), and I don't believe that either Adieu nor Folklore are nearly as imposing as any of those three were at the time. I think there are several intriguing fillies in here that can upset. Unfortunately, one of them, the British import Ann Summers Gold, was injured and scratched (as was Dressed to Kill).

I’ve mentioned Wild Fit (Wild Wonder) on several occasions. She ran second at 1-2 in the Oak Leaf to Diamond Omi; that was a two turn race in which she was closer to the pace than her two one-turn wins, and she had no real excuse to not catch the winner. But she could love the one turn Belmont route, and with a contested pace her late kick should be more effective here. Jeff Mullins, who I read somewhere claim that he’s never been to Belmont Park, put Wild Fit in a detention barn at Santa Anita for six hours the other day to get her used to it. Mullins knows exactly where to find the detention barns there.

Original Sin (Distorted Humor) won the Lassie at Arlington, run at a mile around one turn, by 4 ¼ lengths and picks up an enthusiastic Jerry Bailey.

"She got slammed leaving there and then Gary [Stevens] and Ex Caelis got the jump on her, opened four or five, and she came out and around and ran her down, so the Lassie Stakes was visually very impressive. Put that together with what I thought was a pretty good work [a bullet 6f in 1:12 4/5 breezing], and I'm excited about her.” [">Daily Racing Form]

Sensation (Dixie Union) was beaten rather soundly by the two prospective favorites in the Spinaway. Stanley Hough said that she “bobbled a little bit, lost position.” It was her only loss and she bounced back to win the Astarita. She’s never been further than seven furlongs and will have to stretch out a bit.

But I think a filly that could really be under the radar is Keeneland Kat. This filly won her first two races at Monmouth very impressively, drawing away while closing in real racehorse time. She stormed home by six in her maiden victory at five furlongs, getting the final eighth in :12 1/5. Then, jumping right up to stakes company, she got off to a slow start in the Sorority, spotting the field a dozen lengths according to her trainer Kelly Breen. But she rallied steadily, eventually drawing away to win by 2 ½, and her final eighth of :12 1/5 was faster than the previous one of :12 3/5.

So it was no surprise that she was well-backed at 9-2 in the Frizette, in which she finished third, nearly seven lengths behind Adieu. Her four wide move on the Belmont turn was to no avail on that day. However, that race was in the slop, and perhaps she just didn’t like it. Joe Bravo said after the race, "It's a shame she lost so much ground breaking from the 9-hole, but she never gave up the bit.” [Bloodhorse]

With drier footing and a more ground-saving trip, this could be a filly who could start the Breeders’ Cup day off with a bang; the Form has her listed at 30-1. The daughter of Hennessy (Storm Cat) out of an Ogygian mare is a complete outcross through five generations, is a half to two six-figure earners, and her second dam is CCA Oaks winner Valley Victory.

- OK, here’s a case against First Samurai. He’s good, no doubt. But in his two Grade 1 wins, he’s been able to sit behind a willing target in Henny Hughes, a colt who maybe, just maybe, hit his distance limit when he tried to go beyond six furlongs. First Samurai’s final fractions have been extremely slow – 14 seconds in the Hopeful, and :27 1/5 in the Champagne, when he benefited by sitting behind an absurd early pace. Granted, he had to throw in a :21 4/5 quarter just to track the Champagne pace, so it’s perfectly understandable that he tired. Still, he hasn’t been hooked and made to run in the stretch by anyone with the quality shown by some he’ll face in the Juvenile, such as..

Private Vow (Broken Vow), who is a half length from being unbeaten himself, has shown steady Beyer improvement, culminating with a “when asked, ridden out” win in the Futurity at Belmont. He has to stretch out a bit from seven furlongs. Jerry Bailey has been on for all of his three wins and remember he described himself as “torn” between he and First Samurai.

There’s Stevie Wonderboy, who looked like Don’t Get Mad on one of his good days when he won the Del Mar Futurity, though apparently, the Beyer boys weren’t that impressed. He’s also stretching out and he hasn’t had a race since Sept 7. The unfortunately named Dawn of War (Catienus) has three wins and three seconds in six starts and comes off a Grade 1 win. Ivan Denisovich (Danehill) is a guess having only raced on the dirt, but her dam Hollywood Wildcat won the Distaff. The pedigree of the other European here, Leo (Pivotal), looks more suited to turf. And there’s also Henny Hughes (Hennessy), who perhaps will improve for trainer Kieran McLaughlin.

But I’m still way impressed with the effort of Sorcerer’s Stone in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. He’s also undefeated, in three starts, with Private Vow among his victims. He was three wide for the whole one-turn mile at Arlington, moved to the lead on the turn with little effort and just left the field for dead when set down in the stretch; Mark Guidry indicated afterwards that there was more in the tank. He got his final quarter in 24 flat after going :24 4/5 prior, so it was no illusion in this case when it seemed as if Sorcerer’s Stone had shifted into another gear. First Samurai hasn’t faced a horse that can kick home like that, and I think he could give the favorite all he can handle and prevent him from becoming the first favorite to win the Juvenile since 1997, when Favorite Trick, trained by Sorcerer Stone’s trainer Patrick Byrne, scored at 6-5 with Pat Day. Sorcerer's Stone is by Gulch, who won the Sprint in 1988, out of a mare by Slew O'Gold.

- Those losing Juvenile favorites include Easy Goer, who was second to Is It True at 3-10 in 1987, and Officer, crushed at 7-10 when Johannesburg won here in 2001.

Notes - Oct 21

- The ownership group International Equine Acquisitions and Holdings almost pulled off a Jay Trotter at Belmont on Thursday. With four starters for the day, they had three winners, two of those for Richard Dutrow, and the 4th was nailed on the wire.

- With all the hand-wringing in Maryland and other neighboring states over the coming of slots to Pennsylvania, the process is still stuck in the starting gate. The state’s Gaming Control Board has still not reached a solution to the contentious issue of granting licenses to slot machine distributors; and by law, licenses cannot be granted to the racetracks there until 90 days after that process is fully completed.

The continued impasse could push the approval of licenses for the first group of slot venues into late spring, and perhaps into June, gaming board chairman Thomas A. Decker said.

Initially, the board had hoped to hand out those licenses, which would be conditional and go to seven horse tracks, by December. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

In Florida, there will indeed be a special session of the legislature in December or January. It's necessary to deal with Governor Bush’s Medicaid initiative that was approved by the federal government, but the question of Broward County’s stalled slot machines will take up much of the agenda. Problem is that there is now increasing talk of a referendum to repeal the vote that allowed the machines, and just imagine how disruptive that would be to the grandiose plans of pari-mutuels like Pompano Park harness and Hollywood greyhound. Gulfstream’s reconstruction is on regardless, and Magna has upped the budget for the process, big surprise, and secured a loan to cover the added costs.

- Jerry Bailey has chosen First Samurai over Private Vow for the Juvenile after being “torn” over the decision, and given his reputation as a keen judge of equine talent, one might take that into strong consideration when handicapping the race. But according to the Whittier Daily News, Bailey’s longtime friendship with First Samurai's trainer, Frank Brothers, was the deciding factor. It was Brothers who gave Bailey the mount on his first Triple Crown race winner, Hansel, in 1991.

Where's The Speed?

- I picked up my copy of the Daily Racing Form Breeders’ Cup 2005 advance edition. Five bucks, hermetically sealed in its clear plastic sleeve, this baby will be by my side straight through to at least the time that next Saturday’s regular Form comes out. Any spare minute is a chance to study some PP lines, so I’ll have this with me at all times. I can sneak peaks in the bathroom, while waiting for traffic lights to change, between courses at restaurants and betweens periods of Rangers games. By the time Friday comes along, I’ll no longer have to carry it; it will be trained to follow me around on its own. “I’m with him,” it will say to anyone who tries to stick it in a recycling bin. I may even give it a name. By next Saturday, I should be able to recite from memory the last three Beyers (or Timeform rating) of every horse on the card.

Besides containing the lifetime past performance for all the pre-entries, there are some really worthwhile pieces that don’t seem to be online anywhere. Amongst them is a look at the foreign entrants by Alan Shuback that I find particularly valuable because, to be honest, I really know very little about the racing overseas. Interesting to note that regarding the Mile, he writes that Leroidesanimaux would “have to run well below his ultra-consistent form to lose” to the European invaders. If you take his expert word for it, then the King likely becomes a single, as I think it’s a stretch to think that any of the home boys are going to beat him.

- Reader ‘throwaway,’ daring to question my inclination to use Lost in the Fog as a single, asks in the comments section:

Have you considered Wildcat Heir at all? My recollection is that there was a recent period of time where layoff horses did well in this race, so the layoff since the Teddy Drone doesn't necessarily concern me; the concern, of course, is the overall lack of races. Yet my instinct is telling me that his talent level is high enough to make him a factor here if the stampede-effect somehow compromises Fog. Worth a shot at 15-1?

OK, well now that I have my little companion, let’s take a look. Hmmm. Ahhhh. OHHHH! Yeah, his Teddy Drone not only was a nice effort, but the 117 Beyer exceeds anything LITF has ever run. In fact, it’s higher than any of figs earned by the winners of the preps listed by the Form. Run at Monmouth on 8/7, it was his first and only race of the year, and looking at the line, it looks as if he sat a classic perfect trip behind a pace of :21 and :43 3/5, on a track that was likely souped up – it was Haskell Day. I’d have to research throwaway’s assertion that some recent winners have come off layoffs, but I do recall having Precisionist at the Big A in 1985 when he won despite not having started since June.

Look, Wildcat Heir is a fast horse who may or may not be sharp enough for this, and 15-1 is probably a fair price, but I just question where a stampede-effect is going to come from. I read today these comments by Imperialism’s trainer Kristen Mulhall: “There will be a lot of speed with Pomeroy, Lost In The Fog and all those….My horse can be 15, 20 (lengths) off of it and make his one big run." [NYRA] Well, Pomeroy showed zero speed in the Vosburgh and has been inconsistent throughout his career. In three tries at Belmont he’s shown speed only in a race in the slop.

And please take a look at the horses one by one and tell me where all that early speed is. I just don’t see any other horses whose natural style at six furlongs is to shoot to the lead other than Lifestyle, who has been unable to get out of N2X allowance company in five tries. There are a couple of others, allowance horse Attila’s Storm and Battle Won, who like to sit just off the leader. This race just comes up to me as LITF as virtual lone speed, unless someone decides to sacrifice himself just to get him beat; and even then, I don’t know if anyone other than possibly Battle Won would be capable even of that. Watchmaker is touting Battle Won, and he’s a legit sprinter, a class above anything LITF has ever faced. If the favorite pulls a Housebuster and stumbles at the start, he’d be in an excellent position to win. But keep in mind that he hasn’t won since May, and that was his only stakes win, graded or ungraded, on the dirt – a Grade 2 at seven furlongs. He also is not particularly quick right out of the gate. So even if LITF wins, you’re STILL going to hear people like Watchmaker whine about how he’s never beaten any Grade 1 sprinters!

I don’t mean to come off like a tout here – I’m always open to suggestions when it comes to beating a favorite – but someone is going to have to tell me just who is going to run with Lost in the Fog in the Sprint. I'm just not seeing it in the pp's.

- The latest odds for the favorites from UK book William Hill:

Classic, Saint Liam, 5-2; Turf, Azamour, 11-4; Mile, Leroidesanimaux, 1-1; Filly and Mare Turf, Ouija Board, 3-2; Distaff, Ashado, 2-1; Juvenile, First Samurai, 13-8; Juvenile Fillies, Adieu, 11-4; Sprint, Lost in the Fog, 5-6. [Las Vegas Review Journal]

Breeders' Cup Notes - Oct 20

- A national conference call of Breeders’ Cup trainers Wednesday featured the likes of Todd Pletcher, Aidan O’Brien, and Richard Mandella, but according to SF Gate, it was Lost in the Fog’s trainer Greg Gilchrist who got the most attention. And they’re STILL asking him why the horse didn’t run in the Derby!

"I never did feel a lot of pressure (to run in the Kentucky Derby) because we were going to do what we were going to do anyway. I don't think the horse would have been prepared properly to run 11/4 miles the first week in May, and the way the race came up, he certainly wasn't going to lie back 15th or 16th. He would have been up there with everybody else, and it would have been suicide. We chose the right trail, and it's worked out."

Why are we still having this conversation anyway? Forget about a mile and a quarter, I think if the Sprint was seven furlongs, even his supporters may be having some doubts. Gilchrist spoke about the fact that his unbeaten colt can sit behind a horse or two early, but he said “If he draws way to the inside (post position), we're going to send.” Today, Lost in the Fog had a nice, easy work, just want Gilchrist wanted.

With regular rider Russell Baze aboard, Lost in the Fog glided through his work, going the opening furlong in :12 1/5, the first quarter of a mile in :24, three furlongs in :36, and four furlongs in :48 1/5. [Bloodhorse]

- The Europeans are coming – 22 of them in all, the largest contingent since 26 came to Churchill in 1994 (a very good year) – and England’s Sport.Telegraph.com notes that we are represented in all races with the exception of the Sprint and the Distaff.

Last year, Europe sent 12 horses to Lone Star Park, Texas, just two of which were British-trained. However, both Wilko and Ouija Board won. That strike-rate combined with the shorter distance between here and New York; the climate; Belmont's large sweeping bends by American standards and memories of Royal Academy winning there in 1990 for Lester Piggott have accounted for this year's rise in interest.

One of the foreign invaders will be Australian champion Starcraft, and you gotta love the sporting nature of his owner Paul Makin. His horse is a proven commodity as a turf miler, having defeated Dubawi and Rakti in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Newmarket, but this guy is putting up $800,000 to run in the Classic, even though he’s never run on the dirt. Go baby go!

"If you didn't try it with him," said trainer Luca Cuani, relishing the challenge yesterday, "a big, mature, strong, streetwise horse, you wouldn't try with anything. If he doesn't," he added joking, "well, we'll just say he didn't act on dirt."

He’s quoted at Ladbrokes at 7-1, which seems kind of paltry for what is really just a guess. I can't imagine he'll be that low here on post time. On Tuesday, he had an impressive first hit-out on an all-weather dirt surface, and according to Australia’s Herald Sun, he crush[ed] three stable companions with ridiculous ease over seven furlongs on the fibre-sand circuit. Cumani said "I would have liked more kick-back from the surface but unfortunately he is so much bigger than the rest of them that the sand wasn't reaching him….We won't know how he will really handle it until the day of the race.”

Starcraft is by Northern Dancer-line sire Soviet Star, out of a mare by Pompeii Court, who is by Tell (Round Table). Tell was the sire of Told, a stakes winner on the grass in New York that I seem to remember cashing a ticket or two on a couple of decades or so ago.

- Rock Hard Ten had a reportedly spectacular public workout before the first at Santa Anita today, getting seven furlongs in 1:25 3/5 under no urging in the slightest according to Bloodhorse. His jockey Gary Stevens observed the move, and told TVG

"He gives me goose bumps on the back of my neck when I ride him. After he completed the work, I turned to (jockey) James Graham and said, 'Look at the back of my neck, and I had goose bumps.” [Bloodhorse]

I’d like to confirm with James Graham if Stevens really did have those goose bumps, as that could influence my betting decision. Trainer Richard Mandella has his eye on Borrego, telling the Sun-Sentinal, "He's a horse everyone should be afraid of."

Stealth Horses and Judges

- I’ve added some more content to the Breeders’ Cup section in the sidebar. The “Preps” link for the individual races is a worthwhile feature from the Racing Form, listing all the prep winners with their Beyers, with links to each race chart (pdf files).

Stanley Hough’s two year old filly Sensation was the only Breeders’ Cup contestant that worked out today, and the trainer said only that "She got something out of it," [Bloodhorse] which may mean that he thought it sucked, since you generally hear nothing but unbridled joy from these trainers after these pre-big race workouts. You may recall that she was heavily bet in the Spinaway, and finished 4th as the overlaid Adieu won for Pletcher, who said of the probable Fillies second choice, "Adieu has won every race except one at Saratoga when they were expecting some rain and sealed the track with a back rake." [NYRA]

Afleet Alex was also on the track, and Tim Ritchey said that he would likely have his next workout in about a week.

- NYRA has now backed off of Charles Hayward’s comments about closing Aqueduct, saying he was “speaking hypothetically.” VP Bill Nader added, "There's no plan in place to do that. Someone would have to do a huge study, and we haven't done any of that." [NY Post] Well, they certainly don’t have the money to do a huge study, or even a tiny one, that’s for damn sure.

What is not hypothetical is NYRA's financial woes. Nader said NYRA is holding up payments to some vendors; he did not have an amount. Also, NYRA is late with a $17.3 million property tax payment to Nassau County and New York City and is also tardy paying $13 million to its pension fund.
……
NYRA also still owes money to Neil Getnick, a Manhattan lawyer who served as a court-appointed oversight monitor at NYRA for 18 months; Getnick, whose duties recently ended with a glowing report of NYRA that help end the federal prosecution against NYRA, has said he would be charging NYRA up to $5 million for his services. Nader said a "considerable amount'' of Getnick's bill is still owed. "He understands our position and his firm is willing to wait and be placed pretty deep on the list,'' Nader said. [Bloodhorse]

Five million, wow, perhaps NYRA should get into the oversight monitoring business themselves.

- Paul Moran of Newsday feels that with the new arrangement of the order of the Breeders' Cup races, the two apparently most manageable races have been removed from the pick six. He’s referring to the Juvenile and the Juvenile Fillies, contending that those races are fairly clearcut with First Samurai and Folklore/Adieu respectively. Hmmm, don't know if I agree with that - I'm checking out Sorcerer's Stone and Wild Fit, though it’s still early, obviously (ten minutes to post time is usually early for me). But he certainly has a point about the remaining races that will be part of the pick six being wide open (besides the Sprint in my opinion), especially the three turf races, featuring those foreign horses whose PP lines contain about as much information as Harriet Miers has apparently given to the Senate Judiciary Committee in response to their questionnaires.

Not So Bad

- Given all the defections and after all the lamenting about how weak this year’s Breeders’ Cup could be, after reading the lead to Jay Privman’s piece in today’s Form, it seems that things haven’t turned out so bad.

Led by four defending race winners, an unbeaten sprinter who is a candidate for Horse of the Year, an unbeaten 2-year-old colt, a miler who has won eight straight races, a deep, talented pool of European raiders, and several Classic candidates seeking Horse of the Year themselves, a total of 117 horses were announced on Wednesday as pre-entries for the 22nd Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships on Oct. 29 at Belmont Park

The picture is pretty clear with only three horses pre-entered in more than one race: Sir Shackleton and Starcraft in the Mile and Classic, and Laura's Lucky Boy was pre-entered in the Mile and Turf.

- Thanks to Alex in Lexington for commenting in support of Aqueduct. “Could you imagine being at Belmont for 10.5 months a year? It turns Belmont into a 'factory' like Philadephia Park or Charles Town.” The sameness of those one turn races would become unbearably monotonous, particularly from a handicapping standpoint. The change of venues throughout the year, with their different track configurations, provides the kind of angles that helps keep the action lively. First there’s the switch from the one turn at Belmont to the Big A main track, where races over a mile go around two turns. This creates the chance to catch some horses that may appreciate that change (or not), as well as horses you think may be better suited to Aqueduct whether it be because of running style or just an affinity for the track (or not). Same goes when racing moves to the inner track, which some horses seem to prefer, then again back to the main, and back to Belmont. Without that kind of change, there would be a lot less juice to the game here, and believe me, there are times in February when it ain't so hot to start with.

I also wanted to clarify the point I made in my previous post about there being no sun out in front of the grandstand - I meant to specify that that’s during the winter. No, I haven’t actually been there in January, but I’ve seen that argument used against winter racing at Belmont in the past, and it makes perfect sense given the sun’s position in the sky behind the grandstand there at this time of the year. At Aqueduct, if it’s a sunny day, one can actually spend some quality outdoor time by the rail if it’s not too windy even in the dead of winter. Belmont would be all shade in front, and on a cold day, no one is going to venture outside to watch the races. They’d be better off putting the 1800 or so people who would show up on a freezing Thursday afternoon in Radio City Music Hall, let them watch on the big screen and run the races with no people at the track – no one notice the difference anyway.

- Gary Contessa is red hot at Belmont. He had two more winners on Wednesday, both of the longshot variety – Jules for AJ at 25-1, and Signore William at 13-1. He now has ten winners at Belmont in the month of October alone. Two winners for apprentice rider Kyle Kaenal, who I read in a forum posting is the 16 year old son of “Cowboy” Jack Kaenal, does anyone know if that’s the case?

- Matt Hegarty refers to Dr. Wayne Gertmenian (I wonder if the guy is really even a doctor!) in the Form today as "resilient,” pointing out that even amidst all the scandal and deception under his regime, he may be moving closer to what he wants.

The hearing illustrated a sobering point that jockeys are only now just beginning to realize. With Stupak's calls for federal intervention, and the rising number of racetracks that have purchased insurance policies that cover riders for $1 million in medical bills, Gertmenian's mission to improve riding conditions appears to be succeeding - but only through turmoil that he has helped to create and that many jockeys contend has ruined lifelong friendships. [Daily Racing Form]

Can’t you picture him from a prison cell proclaiming that he was right all along? And maybe some day we’ll hear Karl Rove, perhaps from the same cell, bragging that the Bush administration was right about Iraq all along? Nah…

BC Pre-Entries Announced

- I’ve posted some links over in the sidebar to help you (and me) navigate through all the Breeders’ Cup information, and I'll update them as we go along to the big day. I'm trying to conslidate links to everything you (and I) need to know in one place, because with eight championship races, it’s impossible for little ol’ me to keep up with every story and every workout. In fact, I think that’s one of the problems with the Breeders’ Cup concept, and why it hasn’t caught on like the Derby. For those of us who follow this every day, we probably know who we like, or at least have an idea, without even looking at the pp’s. But for the casual or prospective fans, I imagine it’s all very overwhelming – a lot of horses they’ve never heard of running on a single day. Vic Zast in Bloodhorse proposes that there be three World Championship days spaced throughout the year, with one in midsummer concentrating on three year-olds. The obvious problem with that is that you can’t really have a “championship” day in the beginning or middle of the year.

But all the action compressed into one day can seem a bit much even for you and me. I see that Patrick over at Pulling Hair is going to concentrate on the Filly & Mare Turf (hey, I like that race too!), so perhaps I’ll also pick out a race or two to really focus on, though I’ll be sure to try and pick all of them at some point so you have some horses to throw out.

Anyway, over in the sidebar, I’ll put general content on top, and I’ve created separate sections for each of the races with links to each of the three major racing trades - each one of them has something different to offer. The pre-entries are in, and you can find them here. The announcement of the order of the races turned out to be a non-event to me; who cares, really. Four of the races are oversubscribed, and the major news there is that Shake the Bank, intended to be a rabbit for Better Talk Now, is left out for now, so Graham Motion's charge could be on his own. Also, we’ll be spared seeing A.P. Arrow run up the track in the Classic if we’re lucky.

- Jerry Bailey says that the only question in his mind about Shakespeare is the possibility of a soft turf. "He has never run over that, but he's not a huge heavy horse..." [Bloodhorse] Others, such as Megahertz, could be adversely effected as well. The Breeders’ Cup is of course trivial compared to the potential destruction posed by Hurrican Wilma, but Ruben Bailey at Avg Horseplayer points out that the storm could possibly have a profound effect on the proceedings here on the 29th if it follows the usual path up the coast.

- In an interview with the Saratogian, NYRA chief Charles Hayward once again raised the ugly spectre of the eventual closing of Aqueduct, at least for racing. Damn, I thought we were past that. 'Put a luxury hotel there….Let somebody build and develop that. You don't need two tracks.'

Yeah, a luxury hotel in the middle of Ozone Park, that should work. There has been some preliminary work done in the past to try and winterize Belmont, but anyone who’s there for October 29 will know that you don’t want to be there on January 29. It’s mostly an open air track, and it's fucking cold there, period. And there is zero sun for the railbirds during the winter due to the direction the grandstand faces. If NYRA is serious about this, that’s reason in itself for me to oppose them being re-franchised. I love Aqueduct, and I’m not going to take this lightly!! Save the Big A!!!!

Jockeys' Guild Is No Joke

- I’ve had some fun lampooning the Jockeys' Guild and their leader Dr. Wayne Gertmenian, while at the same time acknowledging that the causes they’ve spoken out on are legitimate and serious. Some of their statements have been so outrageous – at times, more in the way they were put than what they actually said – that it’s been hard to resist. So I was looking forward to the appearance of Dr. G and some of his friends and foes in front of Rep. Ed Whitfield’s Subcommittee on Tuesday, partly because I figured there would be some good material for snark.

But after reading the press accounts and transcripts of the testimony, I feel nothing but contempt and sadness. Sad for Gary Birzer, in the prime of his life at 30 years old, unable to raise his fingers when taking the oath to testify; and for all the jockeys who were betrayed, including those who were duped by Gertmenian into removing the old leadership and installing him. And I no longer find Dr. G the least bit funny; in fact, I’m rather embarrassed that I did in the first place, considering the fact that the Birzers face a half million dollars in debt due at least in part to his negligence and deception. I'm sorry for making light of the situation.

Matt Hegarty in the Form reports that after five hours of being mostly lambasted by current and former Guild members, Gertmenian could do nothing more than to use his five-minute opening address to call for the racing industry to adopt new rules on how jockeys are weighed. He admitted that his Matrix Capital consulting firm has no employees and no clients other than the Guild, meaning that the hundreds of thousands of dollars the Guild paid to it was going to none other than Dr. G, his relatives and cronies.

The committee alleged that out of $335,000 paid by the guild to Matrix in 2004, some $184,000 was unaccounted for. Of the expenses [Gertmenian] could detail, some $50,000 went to his daughter and her consulting company. When asked what services the daughter provided, Gertmenian said, "Answering the phones and whatever she could do to help."

Another $16,000 went to "Fiss Consulting," which Gertmenian said is operated by his vice president.
........
"You've done not a darn thing except to obfuscate and not obey the subpoenas of this committee," said Joe Barton, R-Texas and chairman of the full Energy and Commerce Committee. Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day, who briefly testified, stood and applauded after Barton's questioning of Gertmenian was finished.

Asked repeatedly why he had not produced all the subpoenaed documents and why he couldn't give details as to where the money had gone, Gertmenian said, "We are so incredibly overwhelmed. [Associated Press]

And then there’s the question of the infamous resume:

Texas Republican Rep. Joe Barton, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said no one had been able to identify Gertmenian in any position of significance during the Nixon and Ford administrations. He asked Gertmenian if his resume was correct. "Yes, sir," the Guild chief replied. "We think it's a complete fabrication," Barton said. "You need to provide some documentation." [Bloodhorse]

Chris McCarron, who led the charge to replace former Guild head John Giovanni with Gertmenian, admitted that "Bringing Dr. G into the mix was the worst mistake I ever made." Robert Colton, who also participated in the coup, issued an apology: "To Mr. Giovanni: John, you and your staff did absolutely nothing wrong and I am truly sorry for my part in your removal as national manager of the Jockey’s Guild." [Lexington Herald Reader] He told the subcommittee that Gertmenian had told him to double bill states for benefits, and he described the chaotic state of the organization’s business practices:

Members’ savings and health insurance premiums were being commingled into the general operating account. Audits and tax returns were excessively late and appeared to me to be incorrect, with possible fraud. I discovered the independent auditor had a long time relationship with Gertmenian. Since the Gertmenian takeover, the Guild had stopped filing Department of Labor Management LM-2 reports, as require by the DOL. Employees’ apartments, food, and utility bills had been regularly paid for and hidden inside of the Guild’s expenses. I could not find any record where 1099s had been issued for these fringe benefits. Gertmenian’s $12,000 worth of annual insurance annuities the Guild bought for him as required in his contract was also hidden. His contract provided him with a leased car and related expenses which were not listed anywhere on the tax returns. The car was basically for personal use. There was no office structure, no job descriptions, and no check and balances of any kind. I also witnessed what I considered serious election manipulations and violations.

Jerry Bailey was there too, and in sometimes elegant testimony, he told the committee how the Guild, of which he was a member for almost 30 years, was traditionally a social welfare organization for jockeys, providing insurance and benefits and helping those riders who were less well-off. He told of an early encounter that led to his resignation.

During the ensuing weeks, I contacted Dr. G by way of a phone number Mr. McCarron had given me. The purpose of my call was to conduct an informal interview of Dr .G so that I might be more well versed as to his qualifications, or lack thereof, for the job of National Managing Secretary of the Guild. (I felt an obligation to the membership to either endorse this man or not). I asked Dr. G to provide me with a few references of previous employment, to which he answered repeatedly that those references were confidential, and that under no circumstances would he comply. At that moment, I began to distrust this “Dr. G”. [Herald-Reader]

But despite the withering criticism of Gertmenian by the committee members and jockeys alike, the core issue of on track insurance for jockeys was not overlooked. Bailey called for "some type of national program or policy," and Colton pointed out:

When the cost for a national program is compared to the national mutual handle, it really isn’t a question of money. To insure all the jockeys in the United States with a million dollars of medical coverage is less than two-thirds of one-tenth of one percent of the national handled (0.066%). What is the problem here?

And Rep Whitfield agreed, hinting of possible Congressional oversight, and saying of the industry "They definitely have a responsibility. There is a lot of money involved in racing. ... We have a lot of mechanisms we can look at to try to address the issue of health care and safety for jockeys." [AP]

"Racing has $25 billion in economic impact, hundreds of thousands of jobs, generates $16 billion in handle but still does not provide adequate on-track insurance for its most important people.” [Herald Reader]

As for the Guild, Dr. G had no comment afterwards, and the best retort VP Albert Fiss could muster was "I think the bottom line there is [Whitfield] is a Churchill Downs-bought congressman.” [AP] In the past, I'd play that remark for the laughs it deserves, but it's just not funny anymore. It's just plain pathetic.

Notes - Oct 18

- Jeff Scott in the Saratogian has this interesting tidbit about the entrants for the Breeders’ Cup:

Of the 30 horses that won Grade I races between January and June, only four -- Saint Liam, Rock Hard Ten, Leroidesanimaux and Ashado -- will likely be in the Belmont starting gate a week from Saturday.

Scott worries that with speed horses such as Commentator, Lava Man, and Bellamy Road out, Saint Liam and Rock Hard Ten may be free to dictate the pace.

The result could be a Classic similar to last year's, when Ghostzapper and Roses in May paraded around the track virtually unchallenged.

- Michael Mayo of the Sun-Sentinal, commenting on the Florida legislature’s failure to follow the will of the voters and implement rules for slots at Broward County pari-mutuels, notes that the Legislature was supposed to have rules in place by July 1, but didn't.

That's 110 days of constitutional defiance, and counting. "If you or I violated a mandate [such as this], we'd be in jail," said Bruce Rogow, an attorney representing the pari-mutuels.

Governor Bush, while expressing support for a special session, also said last week that he would support an amendment to repeal the slots initiative, and Mayo asks if that’s the case, why not repeal the lottery as well? Perhaps because when it comes to his stated dire opposition to gambling, the Governor is every bit as hypocritical as many conservatives now consider his brother to be when it comes to the president's supposed fiscal (and some would now say, judicial) conservatism.

Since Bush took office in 1999, annual lottery revenue has gone from $2 billion to $3 billion, with more drawings and scratch-off games than ever before. On his watch, the lottery has introduced scratch-off tickets that sell for $10 and $20 apiece.

Earlier Monday, [Bush spokesperson Russell] Schweiss told me the lottery wasn't gambling, but "similar to gambling." Huh? I guess he's right, since most gambling ventures return 80-92 percent to bettors, while the lottery pays back only 50 percent. In that sense, it's more like stealing.

- With the Congressional hearings on the Jockey Guild under way as I write, this article from Yahoo Business, via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page, is an excellent recap of the events leading up to Wayne Gertmenian taking over at the Guild, and his subsequent decision to let the jockeys’ insurance policy lapse.

According to piece, Gary Birzer, whose on-track paralyzing injury led to the discovery that the riders were no longer covered under the Guild policy, is currently nearly $800,000 in debt. Former Guild head John Giovanni says that "The only salvation the jockeys have is what happens at the hearing." The Guild, of course, blames the tracks, and does so in its usual sophisticated fashion. "Those guys never got out of the Neanderthal early 20th century (in labor relations)," said their counsel Lloyd Ownbey.

New Order

- Wednesday is the day that the Breeders’ Cup will announce the pre-entries for the eight races, as well as the order in which they will be run. The latter is a first, and Ken Kirchner, a Breeders' Cup VP, explained that the change will be made in an effort to maximize the handle.

"Occasionally we will get a couple of short fields and as you analyze the handle, you notice where a heavy favorite or short field did some damage to the progression of handle through the day."

The name of the game is "churn," that is getting bettors to put their winnings back through the window. Starting the day with a short field or heavy favorite increases the odds of having greater churn.
......
"Last year, with the Juvenile and Turf each having eight horses, there was a significant decline in handle. That is what pushed over the edge to make this call." [Bloodhorse]

I think that many of us would be thrilled to have eight horse fields on a regular basis, but with 14 eligible for each race, that qualifies as a short field in this case. David Grening in the Daily Racing Form looks at the decision from another angle.

Breeders' Cup officials have an interesting decision to make regarding the scheduling of the $1 million Sprint and the star animal of the day, the undefeated Lost in the Fog. If Breeders' Cup officials opt to leave the Sprint out of the pick six - which will have a guaranteed pool of $3 million - then it will be run during the first hour of NBC's 4 1/2-hour telecast. NBC officials would most likely want the Sprint positioned later on the card in order to keep viewer interest. The Sprint has never been run later than the fourth Cup race of the day.

- I was interested to see this heading in the Racing Form today: Spite the Devil works twice in 2 days. I guess that’s a big deal nowadays, but that hasn’t always been the case, which is why Jerkins, as an old-timer, didn’t know what all the fuss is. I recall cashing tickets regularly when seeing that pattern from trainer Angel Penna, for whom back-to-back works usually prefaced a good effort. Jerkins’ Society Selection, who could present some value in the Distaff, worked seven furlongs in a quick 1:25.24, prompting him to note "She was just going to go easy......She went faster than I thought she would." [DRF] I dunno, is that good or bad?

- Oratorio’s addition to the Classic adds the extra intrigue which always results when a European horse tries the dirt for the first time over here. For the bettors, it’s a guess, nothing more, nothing less. Powerscourt is out of the Turf, as trainer Aidan O'Brien was displeased with his last work.

- Though not to the same extreme, Churchill Downs is following the lead of rival Magna with its proposal to cut racing days at Ellis Park from 41 to 29. Like Maryland, Kentucky has no slots, and the arguments are familiar. A spokesman for the horseman noted that “Bills accumulate seven days a week, and it’s a bad precedent to go to four days," while Churchill President Steve Saxton talked about an increased purse structure and noted: "Casino Aztar in Evansville is 24 hours, and the OTB that Indiana Downs opened in Evansville siphons $50,000 to $70,000 a day from our simulcast business.” [Thoroughbred Times]

Notes - Oct 17

- The “big three” of Borrego, Saint Liam, and Rock Hard Ten aren’t scaring opponents away from the Classic. Two more have announced their intention to join the field, and they are Jack Sullivan, 4th in the Dubai World Cup, and last year’s Canadien three year-old champ A Bit of Gold.

- Good news for Lost in the Fog; speedy Captain Squire will go in the Sport Page Handicap on the undercard instead of the Sprint.

- About a hundred jockeys including several disabled riders will rally to the defense of the Jockey Guild before tomorrow’s hearing in Washington DC, where they will "voice their support for the Guild and in opposition to the one-sided nature of the subcommittee." The Guild issued a press release posing the following questions:

—"When will Kentucky Congressman Ed Whitfield be concerned about the health and safety of our Quarter Horse jockeys?

—Why do tracks and their government lobbyists pretend that Dr. Gertmenian is the source of the industry's problems?

—When will the Congress require that the tracks provide workers' compensation insurance for jockeys in every state?

—When will the Congress make safety rails and safety reins mandatory? and

—Why are jockeys required to destroy their bodies in order to keep their jobs?" [Thoroughbred Times]

I’m glad to see the Guild hasn’t lost their sense of humor; it’s been awhile since I’ve gotten a good chuckle out of one of their statements. The last question in particular is vintage Guild. I’ll reserve any further comments for after tomorrow’s hearing. (But nice try to change the subject to Quarter Horse jockeys) (And maybe they "pretend" that Dr. G is the problem because the lapsing of the insurance, and all the weirdness and evasiveness have occured on his watch?)

- Reader Walter left an awesome comment here in response to my post on Ouija Board. In addition to a wealth of information on last year’s Filly and Mare Turf winner, he writes that despite reports that are still posted on the major trades sites, Jerry Bailey is in fact NOT named to ride as of yet. "Bailey remains in the mix, but he's more of an escape hatch in the event that [Kieran] Fallon isn't available." Thanks for the info!

Ouija Board

- Ouija Board will try to make it two in a row in the Filly and Mare Turf, and a look at some of the press in the UK shows that our British friends don’t give the home team much of a chance. One site, called Readabet.com, advises that Ouija Board’s price of 6-4 should be gobbled up for maximum stakes.

Many doubted whether Ouija Board had trained on when she disappointed on her return to action this season at Royal Ascot at York. However, she was found to have lost a shoe during the race and sustained an injury. She then missed her next two engagements owing to a cough, but bounced back in no uncertain terms when cosily landing a Group Three contest at Newmarket last month.

That was effectively her seasonal reappearance, so to see her travel through the race so easily before settling the race with a decisive move two furlongs out, only needing to be kept up to her work to score by two and a half lengths, was most encouraging.

As it stands, it would appear that she retains most of – if not all of – the ability she showed last season. Therefore, I would be absolutely perplexed if she were to be beaten in this event.

- Sportinglife.com says that Megahertz is a decent sort but should be no match for this supremely talented filly and 6-4 with Coral is about the right price for her in a race where rivals look thin on the ground. For whatever it's worth, Frank Lyons on TVG said that the field that Ouija Board beat at Newmarket was not the best, and that he felt that she didn’t seem like the same horse.

I watched last year’s race on the Breeders’ Cup time capsule page and there’s no doubt that she won pretty handily against several of the horses she’ll be facing here – Wonder Again, Riskaverse, Film Maker, and Megahertz. She had a good trip, saving ground around all three turns, which helped her to close for the win despite the last three furlongs being run in :35.49 seconds. Megahertz was caught four wide around the first two, and Wonder Again was much further back of the crawling pace. The race is a furlong shorter this year – it was run at a mile and three eighths at Lone Star - and perhaps the trips will work out differently. She deserves to be the favorite, no doubt, but I for one would not be "perplexed" if she’s beaten.

- I know I write too much about the crowds, or lack thereof, at Belmont this fall, but seeing the place so empty is something I just can’t get used to. On Sunday, the crowd of 4,640 seemed like less, with many huddled inside on a gusty autumn day. There’s an enormous tent up in the backyard right smack in the middle of an area which gets much needed sun. October 29 could be an extremely cool day as those who were at the 2001 Breeders Cup can well recall. Whatever crowd there is, and I have no idea whatsoever what to expect, won’t find many places in the sun.

There were a couple of interesting two year old maiden specials for fillies that were run within a few minutes of each other at Belmont and Keeneland. The Belmont race had only one filly, Diamond Spirit, that had raced before, and she was the 9-5 favorite. Tim Ritchey had first timer Lady of Summer at 7-2. She’s by first-year sire El Corredor (Mr. Greeley), who has nine winners in 24 starters in an 81-foal crop. He’s the sire of two stakes winners, including Adieu, who may be the second choice in the Juvenile Fillies. Adieu has earned over $500,000, enough to propel El Corredor into the top spot for first year sires by earnings. Tom Albertrani had Calla Lily (Pulpit) a $400,000 yearling at 9-2 who is out of a winning Housebuster half-sister to Gilded Time.

The 4th at Keeneland featured an Asmussen first-timer, Good Witch Glinda, as the 2-1 favorite. (On Saturday, Asmussen pulled over debut winner Catonight at 14-1). This Unbridled’s Song filly sold for $510K last August; her dam, by Forty Niner, is a half to current sire End Sweep, and her second dam is Alabama winner Broom Dance. I was interested in another firster, Sweet Cash, who was 10-1 morning line but getting bet on the nose, drifting up to 5-1 at the bell. She’s by Exchange Rate, who I’d posted about in the morning, and she's trained by Lynn Whiting, hitting 27% with firsters a fine ROI of $3.22. Frank Brothers, another high percentage/ROI debut barn had the second choice, Coronado’s Vision (Coronado’s Quest).

But both races demonstrated the hazards of investing money on races filled with horses that have no track records to go by. At Belmont, it was 31-1 Bella Fortuna (Louis Quatorze) winning her first start for trainer Barclay Tagg and jockey Pablo Fragoso, who picked up the mount when Richard Migliore was shaken up in a gate incident in the third. And at Keeneland, I bet Sweet Cash and she turned for home looking like a winner despite a stiff first quarter of :21.68. But in the end, she succumbed after a stubborn duel with 44-1 Sumneytown (Deputy Commander); tough beat.

- Reunited (Dixie Union) was the only three year old filly in the field, and was able to pass the fading Forest Music and hold off the tough Miss Terrible to take the G3 Thoroughbred Club of America at six furlongs at Keeneland.

Sunday Morning Notes - Oct 16

- Frank Mitchell’s column in the Form on breeder John Gunther illustrates the mixed bag of emotions when someone sells off one of his/her products and sees the horse achieive success on the racetrack. Gunther is the breeder of First Samurai, and he says "I don't know whether I should jump out this window." But he adds “I have to be happy being the breeder” and it doesn’t hurt that he still owns the dam, a yearling half-brother by Menifee, and a weanling half-sister by Cherokee Run, not bad. He has the dam, Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band), booked to Giant’s Causeway for next year. It’s interesting to hear the story of his sale of the probable Juvenile favorite.

Gunther said, "I thought he was one of the best-looking yearlings I ever raised."

But because First Samurai was bred on a six-figure stud fee, the fiscally prudent thing to do was to offer him at auction. So, Gunther said he put him in the September 2004 Keeneland yearling sale, "thinking that he'd bring a big price," but the breeder bought the colt back for $380,000.

That sum was not small but was so much less than Gunther expected that he was stunned. He said, "One of the auctioneers walked up to me just after I'd bought back the colt and said, 'We missed a guy out back if you'd like to sell him.' "

Describing himself as "shocked" that the colt had not met his reserve price, Gunther said that "at that moment, with the auctioneer coming up to him, I went ahead and sold him." [Daily Racing Form]

Sounds as if his emotions at the time prodded him into a decision that he must now regret.

- In Summation (Put it Back) may have suffered his first defeat in his sixth start in Saturday’s Florida Stallion In Reality at a sloppy Calder (it always seems to rain on the track’s big days), but I thought he was a revelation in defeat in his first start around two turns. He was pressed throughout by Steve Asmussen’s promising Cab, and as they rounded the turn into the stretch, it looked like he was a dead duck with Blazing Rate and Lucky Chief ranging up on either side. But he fought back, went head and head with Blazing Rate, and I have no idea how he lost. "Galloping out I really thought we won the race," said [jockey] Manuel Cruz [Sun-Sentinal] In Summation seemed to be ahead as they went under the wire, but the camera must have been in the wrong spot for him.

For Blazing Rate (Exchange Rate), it was his second win around two turns in as many tries, showing a nice closing kick in both. He’s out of a winless Mr. Prospector mare who is a half-sister to stakes winners Darn That Alarm, Jiggs Alarm, and Strong Performer; and he is inbred 4x2 to his broodmare sire. It was Blazing Rate’s second stakes win, and he’s the only stakes winner amongst ten winners in just 22 starters (just 44 in the first crop) thus far for sire Exchange Rate (Danzig), who stands in Florida for $7500. He had ranked number eight in earnings on the first-year sire list, but the $240,000 earned by Blazing Rate should move him up to the top five.

- Dan Lauletta of the NY Daily News notes:

With the Breeders' Cup at Belmont Park now less than two weeks away, there is a decided lack of buzz on the grounds. Perhaps a week of sunshine and Wednesday's preentries will help kick start the event.

I’m going for awhile today, I’ll let you know.

- Melhor Ainda is out of the Filly and Mare turf. Megahertz worked a strong half mile in :48.60 over the main track at Hollywood Park. [Daily News] Jerry Bailey will ride Ouija Board.

According to jockey agent Ron Anderson, Bailey also is scheduled for mounts aboard Sweet Symphony in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), Original Spin in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), High Fly in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), First Samurai in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Shakespeare in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and Saint Liam in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) [Thoroughbred Times]

- Bob Neumeier of MSNBC.com takes a look ahead at the Breeders Cup Pick Six possibilities(we don’t yet know exactly which races it will consist of), and identifies Ashado, Lost in the Fog, First Samurai, Leroidesanimaux, and Ouija Board as potential singles. Really, you think? I would agree with two out of those five at this point. An anonymous commenter chided me for leaving Ouija Board off my Top Ten list, and the point is well-taken. Keep in mind, however, that she has really had only one real race this year, losing by 30 lengths in June, and winning at Newmarket in September, and she'll be facing some tough seasoned mares including some who are familiar with and like the Belmont turf.

Saturday Notes - Oct 15

- Despite questions over ownership and amidst negotiations with the state for a bailout, NYRA is proceeding with their land and art sales. The paintings are slated for sale at Sotheby’s.

The auction will be in early December at the New York City auction house and include 15 paintings.

"I know one of the paintings that is probably worth the equivalent of the others combined," [Charles] Hayward said. [Newsday]

- My Breeders’ Cup day betting strategy will prominently include Folklore not winning the Juvenile Fillies. I don’t even remember the exact reasons why now, I’ve just gotten the notion firmly implanted in my psyche. At Keeneland, Juvenile Fillies hopeful Folklore worked six furlongs in 1:13 yesterday at Churchill Downs for Wayne Lukas. [NY Daily News]

- Pennsylvania has a ways to go with all the political red tape still to be cut before slots actually come to the state. In the meantime, field size and quality at Philadelphia Park leaves much to be deisired, contributing to an estimated $20 million decline in betting handle in the state thus far this year. Wednesday's program featured a four-horse field, three five-horse fields, and a pair of six-horse fields, resulting in an on-track handle of $65,652, an amount similar to some friendly neighborhood card games. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

- Scrappy T is more likely for the Discovery Handicap on the Breeders’ Cup undercard than the Classic. Trainer Robert Bailes was not happy with Ramon Dominguez’ ride in the Indiana Derby, especially during the early stages, when the colt seemed to be under stout restraint.

"I didn't care much for the trip, but whether it made a difference of winning and running second, who knows?......I can't say now Ramon will or will not ride him. We'll leave our options open." [Delawareonline.com]

- Another setback for unbeaten Declan’s Moon as it was discovered that the injury that sidelined him before the Derby was more extensive than originally thought. Trainer Ron Ellis said: "He's back on the shelf. He's going to take the next two months off, and I don't think he'll run again until around April of next year. It's a real disappointment." [Baltimore Sun]

Maine Slots Imminent - Discrimination Too?

- Slots come to the state of Maine exactly two years to the day after the law that permits them was approved by voters. Penn National Gaming will open its Hollywood Slots casino at 10 A.M. on November 4 at a former restaurant as an interim facility before it builds a larger one in or near Bangor Raceway, a harness facility that had live racing for all of 28 days this year. The casino, which will house 475 machines, still needs to clear some regulatory hurdles to meet the starting date, but the plans call for an invitation-only VIP gig on the 2nd, with all after-tax proceeds to be donated to United Way of Eastern Maine. [Bangor Daily News]

The opening will be a bitter pill for the state’s persistent gambling foes, who failed to collect enough signatures to get a referendum to repeal the slots law on the November 2006 ballot. They needed 50,519 signatures by October 21, but a spokesman for the group No Slots of ME! said they only have 35,000 to 40,000. We didn't get the big flood." [Boston.com] (A tasteless choice of metaphor these days.) The group had the backing of two prominent conservative Christian groups which spearheaded a successful petition drive to force a referendum, to be voted on next month, which, if approved, would repeal the state’s anti-gay discrimination laws and keep Maine as the only New England state to lack such a law. The ballot will read: "Do you want to reject the new law that would protect people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation?" Whatsmore, No Slots for ME! is listed as a contributor to one of those conservative groups, but the group claims that the money was merely to cover expenses and that they do not have a position on the gay rights referendum. [Portland Press Herald]

The repeal drive did not however have the backing of Casinos No!, the largest anti-gambling group in the state, who feel that a loss at the polls would be an implicit approval of more gambling in the state. "I would rather isolate (the Bangor) racino and prevent others from popping up instead of risking full, statewide proliferation," [Exec Director Dennis] Bailey said. [Maine Today]

But despite the failure of the petition drive, state law allows them to try again. They’ve applied for yet another initiative, and if it’s approved they’ll have until Jan 20, 2006 (exactly three years before Bush’s Last Day) to collect the required signatures. Rep. Pat Blanchette, a pro-slots legislator said

"They had plenty of time to get them, and they couldn't do it....They need to back off, and they'll find out that this is not the devil incarnate moving into town." [Boston.com]

- Tuesday is the day that the Jockey Guild will face the music before Rep. Ed Whitfield’s House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, whose original intent was to investigate the issue of insurance coverage for jockey's on-track catastrophic injuries. But the Form’s Matt Hegarty reports:

The roster of witnesses, along with a background paper that is being distributed in advance of the meeting, suggests that the subcommittee will concentrate on the Guild and its business practices.

They’ll be confronted by some hostile witnesses, such as paralyzed jockey Gary Birzer and one-time supporter Chris McCarron. Dr. G himself has been called to testify and man, I hope this thing is accessible on the web via CSPAN. There could be enough material there to last me for a year.

Early Morning Notes - Oct 12

Checking in tonight from Gainseville, GA, don’t even ask. After tonight’s posts, you won’t be hearing from me again until Thursday night at the earliest.

- Great news from the barn. Highland Cat came out of Sunday’s race in excellent form. Javier Castellano was reportedly “quite impressed” with our colt, and said that he lost the shoe before the race even started. Turner intends to stretch him out going forward, and there’s talk of a turf race on the 26th. Not sure if that’s enough time between races. In any event, I think he should definitely love a stretch out, being out of Highland Tide, a stakes placed daughter of Highland Blade (Damascus), the good handicap horse who won the Marlboro Cup and the Brooklyn Handicap, the latter at a mile and a half. The dam is a half to stakes winners Ide and Super May and the latter won graded stakes on the grass.

- Storm Cat’s stud fee remains at $500,000 and already is essentially sold out. [Daily Racing Form]

- Henny Hughes has been transferred to Kiaran McLaughlin from Patrick Biancone. He’s one horse of Biancone’s that I didn’t have that much of a problem with his handling of, though that could have changed. Darley paid $4 million for this colt when he was the fastest horse in the world, and kept him with Biancone even though he’s not one of their regular guys. Biancone’s explanation was "I guess because he had been beaten." [Thoroughbred Times]

- Besides suggesting First Samurai as a triple crown winner in his Countdown to the Cup column this week, Steve Haskin at Bloodhorse writes of Nick Zito’s Breeders Cup plans, which include Sun King and Sir Shackleton in the Classic, Superfly in the Juvenile, In the Gold in the Distaff, and, surprisingly, High Fly in the Sprint. High Fly has had just that one race since May, his second place finish in the Jerome, and he seems hardly suited to face Lost in the Fog at this point. I mean, he doesn’t have to run in the Breeders Cup, does he?

Breeders Cup Top Ten

This is the Left at the Gate Top Ten of horses and people I think will be in the headlines on and around Breeders Cup day:

1) Lost in the Fog – The unbeaten sprinter sprints away from the Sprint field, and right into consideration for the Eclipse for Horse of the Year, though the skeptics remain unconvinced.

2) Leroidesanimaux – They’ll be all these scary European horses with the scant past performance lines and the ‘+’ signs after their Timeform ratings (though not Dubawi) , but Frankel’s monster could make a championship claim himself with a dominating win.

3) Charles Hayward – The NYRA chief and several other NYRA officials are indicted for being several pounds heavier than listed on their job applications.

4) Sorcerer’s Stone – With all eyes on Henny Hughes and First Samurai, Patrick Byrne’s unbeaten two year old Sorcerer’s Stone blows by them both.

5) Borrego Saint Liam Rock Hard Ten I can’t decide.

6) Michael Imperioli - Taking advantage of the big celebrity-filled Breeders Cup day crowd in their continuing desperate attempt to raise some cash, NYRA sells Michael Imperioli and several thousand fans sitting on the third floor of the grandstand.

7) Wild Fit – Second in the Del Mar Debutante around two turns, Wild Fit could be the overlay of the day as the New York fans overbet Folklore and Adieu, and Jeff Mullins’ filly comes late to take all the money.

8) Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers attends the Breeders’ Cup, and refuses to discuss her position on abortion and privacy, and declines to say who she likes in the Classic or the Pick 4. James Dobson says that he does knows who she likes. Ms. Miers says she thinks that the racetrack is “cool.”

9) Megahertz – Wowie zowie. Her being there make a special day even more so.

10) Saint Liam Rock Hard Ten OK, how about Borrego, for now, anyway? Borrego’s win in the Gold Cup reminded me of Afleet Alex's Belmont in the way he destroyed his field on the turn, and he obviously wasn't hard used through the stretch - he was hardly used at all. Perhaps he’s just a horse that is blossoming now, and he obviously loves Belmont; yet he could be the third choice and the value in the race.

Afleet Alex Out of Cup

- Sorry for the light posting the last couple of days, but I'm getting ready to go on a little trip this week; so it will be intermittent here for the next few days as the sport pauses anyway to catch its breath and get ready for the World Thoroughbred Championships.

Afleet Alex’s unlikely return for the Breeders’ Cup was nixed despite the recent bullet half mile work. Tim Ritchey said he’s not quite ready after X-rays revealed that he’s “99% there.” "Two weeks ago there was a faint line which they figured would've been gone by now...Most of it is, but it's not completely gone." [NY Daily News] The Cash is King crew should be commended for giving it a shot, and commended even more so for pulling back and keeping the big picture in mind, which hopefully means a four-year old campaign. The big breeding bucks are in the bag and Horse of the Year honors may be too. so there was no reason to take any chance. To run him twice in two weeks before he’s 100% healed would be risky, both from a physical standpoint and, in my opinion, from a competitive one in the Classic as well. He could still return later in the year – the Cigar Mile on Nov 26 was mentioned as a possibility – to put an exclamation point on his Horse of the Year title, or perhaps to take it back from a horse that particularly distinguishes himself on Oct 29. (I’m not being sexist here. I don’t see any fillies or mares as contenders for Horse of the Year for 2005.)

- Captain Squire’s co-owner Bob Bone does not sound like a man who’s anxious to take on Lost in the Fog in the Sprint, and that would be a disappointment to connections of contenders that are looking for someone to run early with him.

"I've done the math," Bone said. "Between shipping, fees, everything else, if you win the Breeders' Cup Sprint you make about $350,000. I don't mean to sound negative, but unless you have a breeding prospect - and we don't - that's not a lot of money to win the toughest sprint in the world."

Bone is looking at the seven-furlong Sport Page Handicap on the Breeders' Cup undercard as a viable option, while reserving the right to change his mind. Looming large over his decision, of course, will be the ongoing health and welfare of the prerace favorite for the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

"I don't see any dimension that Lost in the Fog doesn't have," Bone said. "That's the trouble. Do you go after him early? Do you wait and make a run? It looks like no matter what you do, that horse can adjust." [Daily Racing Form]

Jeff Mullins trains Captain Squire as well as Wild Fit, a filly I'm very much interested in for the Juvenile Fillies. She worked five furlongs in 1:00.60 Monday at Santa Anita, and Mullins takes the blame for her second in the Oak Leaf Stakes.

"I was too easy on her....She only had 13 days between her races at Del Mar (winning a maiden race on Aug. 14 and the Del Mar Debutante on Aug. 27). I lightened up on her a little bit and she was a little fresh, a little rank early (in the Oak Leaf) and it cost me." [Whittier Daily News]

It's also possible that the filly simply prefers the one-turn distance she will see on Breeders' Cup day; the way she closed in the 7 furlong Del Mar Debutante makes me think she'll love the Belmont route.

- There seems to be this idea that Columbus Day is a holiday. When’s the last time any of you had the day off? Yet there was racing at Belmont on a usual dark day, and a look at the charts make me ask ‘why bother?’ The fields were short and the stands empty, with less than 4,000 on hand. Belmont this fall very much has the feel of a place that is about to become insolvent. Standing amidst the vast emptiness there, one could picture them wheeling out a lot more than just paintings to the auction block - like maybe around half of the unused infrastructure.

However, there were a couple of nice horses in action. Allan Jerkins has a dynamic looking three year old developing late in the season in War Front, who won his third laugher in a row, this time by eight in the Princelet Stakes in a snappy 1:41.3 for the mile and a sixteenth. That makes his combined victory margin total 25 ½ lengths. Not only is he fast, but he shows the ability to sit a bit off the lead. The fact that the track was a bit wet still probably didn’t hurt either, as he won in the slop by 11 1/2 at Saratoga. War Front is by Danzig out of Starry Dreamer (so why the name War Front? How about Peace Front?), a stakes winning Rubiano mare. He's a half brother to Ecclesiastic (Pulpit), a graded stakes winner on the turf for Jerkins this year, so don't be surprised to see this one turn up on the lawn as well.

Shug McGaughey's Chili Cat went down at odds-on for the second straight time, as John Ward’s Play Ballado (Saint Ballado), a beaten 3-5 favorite at Saratoga in his last, made amends for that defeat. The winner's second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Family Style, who ran second to her stablemate Twilight Tear in the 1985 Juvenile Fillies at the Big A.

Channing Hill has gotten off to a fairly slow start since he came back from injury a few weeks ago, but watch out for this kid. His winner in the 9th, Remorse, is typical of the form reversals that I started to notice during Saratoga – not until after he was hurt, of course, left at the gate again. In five races for Jean-Luc Samyn, Remorse was serviceable, picking up three non-threatening thirds, but with Hill on Monday, he challenged the pace while three wide, dug in to duel the race favorite down the stretch and come out a neck ahead at 22-1.

- Besides light posting, it was a light betting weekend for me; in fact, there was Highland Cat and that was about it. OK, maybe one or two other losers - do I have to own up to everything here? We were there just for a few races on Sunday, but I wanted to mention the 4th, a two year old state-bred maiden affair in which Primary Motive (Prime Timber), 8-1 in the morning line, got hammered squarely on the nose in the win pool just as I like to see, going off at 4-1 for Gary Contessa. Not in a betting mode, I just stood and watched as she recovered from a shaky start to post a dominating win. Oddly, it was the second race in a row won by an offspring of Prime Timber, as his daughter Dancing Timber took the third; and that makes four winners for the $3500 Florida-based first year sire at this Belmont meeting, after just one prior (he also had a winner at the Meadowlands last week). The stallion son of Sultry Song won just four times in 17 starts, and is one of only two sires, along with Rizzi, based at Sez Who Thoroughbreds in Ocala.