- I picked up my copy of the Daily Racing Form Breeders’ Cup 2005 advance edition. Five bucks, hermetically sealed in its clear plastic sleeve, this baby will be by my side straight through to at least the time that next Saturday’s regular Form comes out. Any spare minute is a chance to study some PP lines, so I’ll have this with me at all times. I can sneak peaks in the bathroom, while waiting for traffic lights to change, between courses at restaurants and betweens periods of Rangers games. By the time Friday comes along, I’ll no longer have to carry it; it will be trained to follow me around on its own. “I’m with him,” it will say to anyone who tries to stick it in a recycling bin. I may even give it a name. By next Saturday, I should be able to recite from memory the last three Beyers (or Timeform rating) of every horse on the card.
Besides containing the lifetime past performance for all the pre-entries, there are some really worthwhile pieces that don’t seem to be online anywhere. Amongst them is a look at the foreign entrants by Alan Shuback that I find particularly valuable because, to be honest, I really know very little about the racing overseas. Interesting to note that regarding the Mile, he writes that Leroidesanimaux would “have to run well below his ultra-consistent form to lose” to the European invaders. If you take his expert word for it, then the King likely becomes a single, as I think it’s a stretch to think that any of the home boys are going to beat him.
- Reader ‘throwaway,’ daring to question my inclination to use Lost in the Fog as a single, asks in the comments section:
Have you considered Wildcat Heir at all? My recollection is that there was a recent period of time where layoff horses did well in this race, so the layoff since the Teddy Drone doesn't necessarily concern me; the concern, of course, is the overall lack of races. Yet my instinct is telling me that his talent level is high enough to make him a factor here if the stampede-effect somehow compromises Fog. Worth a shot at 15-1?OK, well now that I have my little companion, let’s take a look. Hmmm. Ahhhh. OHHHH! Yeah, his Teddy Drone not only was a nice effort, but the 117 Beyer exceeds anything LITF has ever run. In fact, it’s higher than any of figs earned by the winners of the preps listed by the Form. Run at Monmouth on 8/7, it was his first and only race of the year, and looking at the line, it looks as if he sat a classic perfect trip behind a pace of :21 and :43 3/5, on a track that was likely souped up – it was Haskell Day. I’d have to research throwaway’s assertion that some recent winners have come off layoffs, but I do recall having Precisionist at the Big A in 1985 when he won despite not having started since June.
Look, Wildcat Heir is a fast horse who may or may not be sharp enough for this, and 15-1 is probably a fair price, but I just question where a stampede-effect is going to come from. I read today these comments by Imperialism’s trainer Kristen Mulhall: “There will be a lot of speed with Pomeroy, Lost In The Fog and all those….My horse can be 15, 20 (lengths) off of it and make his one big run." [NYRA] Well, Pomeroy showed zero speed in the Vosburgh and has been inconsistent throughout his career. In three tries at Belmont he’s shown speed only in a race in the slop.
And please take a look at the horses one by one and tell me where all that early speed is. I just don’t see any other horses whose natural style at six furlongs is to shoot to the lead other than Lifestyle, who has been unable to get out of N2X allowance company in five tries. There are a couple of others, allowance horse Attila’s Storm and Battle Won, who like to sit just off the leader. This race just comes up to me as LITF as virtual lone speed, unless someone decides to sacrifice himself just to get him beat; and even then, I don’t know if anyone other than possibly Battle Won would be capable even of that. Watchmaker is touting Battle Won, and he’s a legit sprinter, a class above anything LITF has ever faced. If the favorite pulls a Housebuster and stumbles at the start, he’d be in an excellent position to win. But keep in mind that he hasn’t won since May, and that was his only stakes win, graded or ungraded, on the dirt – a Grade 2 at seven furlongs. He also is not particularly quick right out of the gate. So even if LITF wins, you’re STILL going to hear people like Watchmaker whine about how he’s never beaten any Grade 1 sprinters!
I don’t mean to come off like a tout here – I’m always open to suggestions when it comes to beating a favorite – but someone is going to have to tell me just who is going to run with Lost in the Fog in the Sprint. I'm just not seeing it in the pp's.
- The latest odds for the favorites from UK book William Hill:
Classic, Saint Liam, 5-2; Turf, Azamour, 11-4; Mile, Leroidesanimaux, 1-1; Filly and Mare Turf, Ouija Board, 3-2; Distaff, Ashado, 2-1; Juvenile, First Samurai, 13-8; Juvenile Fillies, Adieu, 11-4; Sprint, Lost in the Fog, 5-6. [Las Vegas Review Journal]