- I picked up my copy of the Daily Racing Form Breeders’ Cup 2005 advance edition. Five bucks, hermetically sealed in its clear plastic sleeve, this baby will be by my side straight through to at least the time that next Saturday’s regular Form comes out. Any spare minute is a chance to study some PP lines, so I’ll have this with me at all times. I can sneak peaks in the bathroom, while waiting for traffic lights to change, between courses at restaurants and betweens periods of Rangers games. By the time Friday comes along, I’ll no longer have to carry it; it will be trained to follow me around on its own. “I’m with him,” it will say to anyone who tries to stick it in a recycling bin. I may even give it a name. By next Saturday, I should be able to recite from memory the last three Beyers (or Timeform rating) of every horse on the card.
Besides containing the lifetime past performance for all the pre-entries, there are some really worthwhile pieces that don’t seem to be online anywhere. Amongst them is a look at the foreign entrants by Alan Shuback that I find particularly valuable because, to be honest, I really know very little about the racing overseas. Interesting to note that regarding the Mile, he writes that Leroidesanimaux would “have to run well below his ultra-consistent form to lose” to the European invaders. If you take his expert word for it, then the King likely becomes a single, as I think it’s a stretch to think that any of the home boys are going to beat him.
- Reader ‘throwaway,’ daring to question my inclination to use Lost in the Fog as a single, asks in the comments section:
Have you considered Wildcat Heir at all? My recollection is that there was a recent period of time where layoff horses did well in this race, so the layoff since the Teddy Drone doesn't necessarily concern me; the concern, of course, is the overall lack of races. Yet my instinct is telling me that his talent level is high enough to make him a factor here if the stampede-effect somehow compromises Fog. Worth a shot at 15-1?OK, well now that I have my little companion, let’s take a look. Hmmm. Ahhhh. OHHHH! Yeah, his Teddy Drone not only was a nice effort, but the 117 Beyer exceeds anything LITF has ever run. In fact, it’s higher than any of figs earned by the winners of the preps listed by the Form. Run at Monmouth on 8/7, it was his first and only race of the year, and looking at the line, it looks as if he sat a classic perfect trip behind a pace of :21 and :43 3/5, on a track that was likely souped up – it was Haskell Day. I’d have to research throwaway’s assertion that some recent winners have come off layoffs, but I do recall having Precisionist at the Big A in 1985 when he won despite not having started since June.
Look, Wildcat Heir is a fast horse who may or may not be sharp enough for this, and 15-1 is probably a fair price, but I just question where a stampede-effect is going to come from. I read today these comments by Imperialism’s trainer Kristen Mulhall: “There will be a lot of speed with Pomeroy, Lost In The Fog and all those….My horse can be 15, 20 (lengths) off of it and make his one big run." [NYRA] Well, Pomeroy showed zero speed in the Vosburgh and has been inconsistent throughout his career. In three tries at Belmont he’s shown speed only in a race in the slop.
And please take a look at the horses one by one and tell me where all that early speed is. I just don’t see any other horses whose natural style at six furlongs is to shoot to the lead other than Lifestyle, who has been unable to get out of N2X allowance company in five tries. There are a couple of others, allowance horse Attila’s Storm and Battle Won, who like to sit just off the leader. This race just comes up to me as LITF as virtual lone speed, unless someone decides to sacrifice himself just to get him beat; and even then, I don’t know if anyone other than possibly Battle Won would be capable even of that. Watchmaker is touting Battle Won, and he’s a legit sprinter, a class above anything LITF has ever faced. If the favorite pulls a Housebuster and stumbles at the start, he’d be in an excellent position to win. But keep in mind that he hasn’t won since May, and that was his only stakes win, graded or ungraded, on the dirt – a Grade 2 at seven furlongs. He also is not particularly quick right out of the gate. So even if LITF wins, you’re STILL going to hear people like Watchmaker whine about how he’s never beaten any Grade 1 sprinters!
I don’t mean to come off like a tout here – I’m always open to suggestions when it comes to beating a favorite – but someone is going to have to tell me just who is going to run with Lost in the Fog in the Sprint. I'm just not seeing it in the pp's.
- The latest odds for the favorites from UK book William Hill:
Classic, Saint Liam, 5-2; Turf, Azamour, 11-4; Mile, Leroidesanimaux, 1-1; Filly and Mare Turf, Ouija Board, 3-2; Distaff, Ashado, 2-1; Juvenile, First Samurai, 13-8; Juvenile Fillies, Adieu, 11-4; Sprint, Lost in the Fog, 5-6. [Las Vegas Review Journal]
5 Comments:
Alan, I agree, I don't see where the challenge will come from for LITF in the BC Sprint. I saw him win the King's Bishop at the Spa on Travers Day as it if it were just another workout. LITF reminds me of Dr. Fager- all 1's in his running lines- but is still a notch or 2 short of measuring up to the Dr., arguably the greatest race horse of the modern era, winning 4 titles in 1968 including HOY, champion sprinter, champion handicap horse, and champion turf horse. I had the pleasure of seeing the Dr. win the 1967 Rockingham Special at the ole Rock and the 1968 Whitney Handicap at the Spa under 132 lbs. Although I had been attending the Saratoga races since 1965, including Kelso's 3rd Whitney win that year, it was the Dr. and his connections, notably trainer Johnny Nerud and jockey Braulio Baeza, that made me a fan for life.In 1968, as a 4YO, the Dr. beat the best of his era at a mile and a quarter under 135 and also whipped all sprinters at 7 furlongs under 139. Now that is a champion race horse.
All those 1's in LITF's running lines are a thing of beauty. I just keep getting drawn back to stare at them......Are the PP's for the greats available anywhere online? (for the Dr for instance?)
Let's try this, Alan: the next time you're in the bathroom, take a look at Attila's Storm, Battle Won, Elusive Jazz, Lifestyle, Pomeroy, Silver Train, and Wildcat Heir. Keep in mind that the issue is not whether they each can stay with LITF for 6F, because most of them clearly can't. Look instead to see if they can stay with him for 4F. My review of the pace numbers suggests that several horses in here can do just that -- based on at least one of their recent races. That's the stampede effect to which I refer. Now of course, most will then collapse -- and that is where I'm suggesting Wildcat Heir may stand out with the ability to run on.
11
...Lost in the Fog is gonna be a tough nut to crack, and i certainly wouldn't go crazy trying to beat him...however, i don't think he's invulnerable...i suspect that Battle Won can give him a battle for the early lead, as there aren't a lot of horses around with his kind of early speed (one needn't look any farther than his Bing Crosby for proof of that)...i think that one has an upset chance, though he seems much more likely for a minor placing because, well, he just doesn't win too often...the horse i think has a real chance at upsetting LITF is Roman Ruler...now normally, a horse turning back from a route (especially 7 routes in a row) into a race with this kind of speed would be an automatic throwout for me...he just won't be able to keep up early...however, Roman Ruler is gonna lay several lengths off the pace anyway (see his Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity)...he had great success with that style during his early sprinting days...believe me, the horse can sprint...he's a stone-cold sprinter this one, regardless of what you might read in the Form or elsewhere...he should've been sprinting right along, just like LITF, but unfortunately there's more money and glory in running long, so Baffert felt the need to try and stretch him out, which he did with moderate success...he kept cashing checks in the big 3yo races, so Baffert kept running him long...but Baffert knows Roman Ruler has no chance going long against Rock Hard Ten, Saint Liam, and the other rock-solid distance types...so he's putting him where he can win, the Sprint...i might also mention that Roman Ruler's brother, El Corredor, was a freaky-good sprinter as well...further, i'll mention that Roman Ruler obviously relishes the Belmont surface...so, here's how i see the race perhaps unfolding...LITF and Battle Won engage early, with others in hot pursuit...no doubt the pace will be fast...i think Roman Ruler can lay 5-6 lengths off the pace, then put in a powerful sweeping move around the turn and quite possibly overtake them...Imperialism should be flying as well, but Roman Ruler will have the jump on him...my main concern with Roman Ruler is his ability to stay withing striking distance of the fast early pace, with 7 consecutive route races under his belt...he's just not accustomed to running this fast, it's been over a year since his last sprint (a tooth-and-nail battle with Declan's Moon)...but Baffert will have had a almost a month to put some speed back into him, so we'll see...incidentally, i subscribe to a private clocker who is flat-out exceptional, so i should have a report on Roman Ruler's latest works available the night before the race...if there's anything noteworthy, i'll pass it along...Go Roman Ruler...
To Anonymous: The Dr.'s lifetime PP's are available from Daily Racing Form and are also published in the excellent book "Dr Fager" in the Bloodhorse Throughbred Legends Series. He was 18 for 22, his winning times, incidentally, were most always near record and he set the world record for a mile at Arlington Park. The Dr's 4 losses included a dubious disqualification from 1st in the Jersey Derby, and 3 losses in races where "rabbits" were entered to prompt a suicidal pace.The Dr.was undefeated "straight up". His performance on the racetrack overcame the "handicap" of not having raced in the 3YO Triple Crown events in 1967.
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