Blue Grass Musings

- John Ward talked to Bill Finley in the NY Times about Strong Contender:

"It's amazing how experienced he was when he won his second race.....You'd be amazed at how good and how professional he was. Other horses challenged from the inside, from the outside. He had a lot of horses come at him.”
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“He is a late foal. He was born May 15, which makes you a little bit cautious about maturity. But he has done some exceptional things. He has done things that good, older handicap horses do."

It would be pretty exceptional indeed if he passes this test, and I think there has to be some value in order to bet on him. So, this will probably be a post time decision; I think you gotta demand at least 7-2. But you never know what's going to happen on the tote board; I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s second choice, and I could go to Bluegrass Cat if that’s the case.

But how about someone else - anyone have any bright ideas? Some people like Little Cliff, and Zito has been on fire at Keeneland. Haskin claims that the horse didn’t like the track at Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t really make sense to me that Zito would run him there twice if that was the case. His Beyers have shown improvement, but he really hasn't shown that much this year. I get the feeling that some people are just trying to will Zito into the Derby this year, but I think that he just doesn't have the goods.

There’s Sinister Minister, who showed good speed in his first try around two turns, but he wasn’t flattered by Cause to Believe in the Illinois Derby. I’m not buying Seaside Retreat. Court Folly broke slow and rallied for third behind Sharp Humor and he’s won over this track; but his one two-turn race was poor.

So, I’ll probably stick to the top choices unless someone convinces me otherwise. I’ll try to create some more value by hooking my choice up in the late double with Rush Bay in the 10th. He’s making his first start since last July, when he was far back on a yielding course in the Virginia Derby. But you may recall how this one took to the turf after a brief excursion on the Derby trail. In his two grass tries prior to his last, he displayed exhilarating late closes that got him a win in the G3 Jefferson Cup, and an excruciating nose loss in his grass debut, the G3 American Turf. Trainer Tom Amoss has been sharp lately with returnees. On March 22, his Monkey Hill won an allowance at Oaklawn in his first start since July 23 as the 2-1 favorite. There’s some sharp-looking horses for Rush Bay to contend with – Remarkable News, Harbor Master, and Pulpit Talk, but if Amoss has him cranked, I think he’s better than those, and perhaps he’ll be a decent price too.

Keeneland Stuff

- I posted just yesterday about Byron King’s column in the Form (sub. only) about horses from Tampa Bay Downs doing well at Keeneland at nice prices and on all surfaces. And wouldn’t you know, horses who had raced at Tampa finished first and second today in the G3 Shakertown, a turf sprint. Atticus Kristy paid $19.20, and runner-up Around the Cape, at 6-1, completed the $126 exacta. They had run a close 3-4 in a similar stake there last month. Man of Illusion, an Australian import making his first U.S. start for Biancone, was 10-1 morning line but got bet to 5-1. He had a very troubled trip, off sluggishly, shut off when he tried to rush up inside, and absolutely buried in the stretch before getting clear and rallying for third.

Zito had two winners in the first five races, but then Pletcher upstaged him with three, including the 10th. His first time starter Hidden Fortune took the money at 9-5, and she romped by 14 in 1:16.64. She’s an Overbrook homebred filly by Gone West out of a Danzig mare, with a Phipps background; her third dam, Pure Profit, is the dam of Educated Risk and champion Inside Information, the dam of Smuggler.

The money also showed in the 8th, which looked like a wide open race from the look of the morning line, but turned into a two horse race, both in the win pool and on the track. Pletcher’s G City Gal ($6.40) (Elusive Quality) just edged out Gleaming Elegance for favoritism, and then held her off in the stretch as well.

Artie Schiller got beat in an amazing finish in the G2 Maker's Mark; it didn’t look like Miesque’s Approval had a chance to catch him, yet he just got up. It was (almost) like Personal Ensign-Winning Colors type stuff. Garrett Gomez, riding the 1-2 favorite said: "I don't know if he saw the other horse, he was so far out." I’m red-boarding here, but the winner looked good on paper, and it seems to me that he should have been a more decisive second choice; nice win price at $14, and a race worth seeking out to watch. I really gotta get myself down to Keeneland again some time soon; it's been a few years now since I went there. You could really sense the crowd's passion for the sport there (though it could have been the bourbon), and I can just about hear the roar of the nearly 24,000 people that were there today as they came down to the stretch. I'm sure there were a lot of Pick 4's and 6's depending on Artie Schiller, and that was one tough beat; he looked like he was home free.

Notes - Apr 14

- Not only was Beautiful Venture indeed the first winner for Came Home at Keeneland yesterday, it was the freshman’s sire first starter. And according to BRIS’ Keeneland Daily Notebook, she unseated rider Mark Guidry before the race began and had to be run down by the outriders. Also noted is was Minister’s Bid's monster debut, and that he made mincemeat of the Keeneland speed bias.

- Great news from New Orleans, as the Fair Grounds has applied for an 81-day meeting beginning on Thanksgiving day.

- So, word comes that Bill Turner still thinks that Highland Cat can run on the dirt, and he wants to drop him into a $35,000 maiden claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs. Now, who am I to argue with an experienced horseman like Turner…..I mean, what do I know? But have you seen any evidence that this horse can run on the dirt? He shows no speed, seems to shy away from getting hit in the face, and has failed going short and long. He did have that rally for third in his debut, and that was at 6 1/2 furlongs; but note that he actually lost ground in the stretch to winner Great Point. And if he’s been so far back in his subsequent route tries, how is he going to be close enough in a sprint, even at a lower level? I’m not very happy with this development; the expenses are piling up and time's a-wasting. I prefer the prior plan of giving him a try on the grass, and then, if there’s nothing doing, sending him to some slots state where perhaps he can compete.

And meanwhile, that “runningest thing” Mum’s the Word, who we sold last year, today registered a bullet half mile (of 23) in 47.57 seconds. Oh man!

Final Trial for Lawyer Ron

- Lawyer Ron will now take on 12 opponents, as Well Said is out due to an ankle problem. He’s won five in a row since switching to dry, non-Poly dirt surfaces, and displayed some surprising and remarkable versatility in his last when he came from off the pace to win. (I love the trip comment in the Form: “ranged up, delivered.”) Since then he’s delivered two blistering bullet workouts, most recently, five furlongs in 59 seconds breezing with a gallop-out in 1:10.91 and, reportedly, in 1:23.46 for seven furlongs.

"That's the best work I've seen since Smarty Jones, prior to his Arkansas Derby," said Jim Hamilton, the state clocker at Oaklawn since 1992.

"He did it with ease, and just kept going," said Betty Fetters, a clocker for 14 years at Oaklawn. [DRF]

Brother Derek isn’t the only horse whose jockey is equivocating him with an outerwordly beast. "He's just a monster right now," said John Mc Kee.

From the four post, it would seem that Lawyer Ron can do whatever he wants, but trainer Bob Holthus said "I'd like to lay third or fourth, three or four lengths off the lead." A couple of speedy types, Simon Pure and High Cotton, could make for willing targets. The horses you may consider to be the main contenders have already been beaten by Lawyer Ron. It seems to me that unless Private Vow can move forward off his disappointing return, Lawyer Ron should be capable of beating these again. And Private Vow’s trainer Steve Asmussen didn’t sound too overly enthusiastic to me in these remarks to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette:

“He got real tired in the Rebel….Disappointing race. Has trained pretty good. His work [April 4 ] was flat. I was expecting him to work better. But he had a good week and breezed nicely [Tuesday ].”

Steppenwolfer will try again; he only lost to the favorite by 3/4’s in the Southwest, and was five wide in running third in the Rebel. So Dan Pietz is remaining optimistic, and is looking forward to the extra distance here. “I can't get to a mile and an eighth fast enough." [DRF] His last work of five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, was the second fastest of the day to Lawyer Ron’s…which shows you fast the favorite's workout was! Steppenwolfer is nothing if not ultra-consistent, and should at least get a piece of the purse…but with only $30,000 in graded earnings, he’ll need a very big piece to qualify for the Derby.

If the favorite does falter, I think that Red Raymond could be the one to surprise. I’m going to reprise here what I posted after watching the Rebel replay.

He broke a bit awkwardly ….. and then, while already towards the back of the pack, got caught in a squeeze entering the backstretch and found himself dead last. He was still trailing as they approached the final turn, but Luis Quinonez swung him out six wide to circle the field; and this is the interesting part of the race to watch. He really just seemed to glide past horses on the turn, as Quinonez did not start his drive until he straightened for home; in fact, the race chart, which doesn't usually editorialize, called it a nice move.

Holthus told the Arkansas Democrat Gazette (whose always excellent Oaklawn coverage has gone wall-to-wall for this climactic week there):

“If you lined up Lawyer Ron and Red Raymond and had to choose which one would win the Kentucky Derby, it would be Red Raymond….He’s a good-looking horse.”

Still, it seems to me that the main question in the race is whether Lawyer Ron can get his Beyer up to a level competitive with those of Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. His lifetime best was a 106 in the Risen Star, but he’s earned 95 and 94 in his last two. Those seem kind of slow, and there was some question about the applicable variant for the Rebel.

I’ll be checking out the exacta payoffs with Lawyer Ron over Red Raymond….but I will have it reversed too, just in case.

- I’m not alone in my belief that Brother Derek perhaps didn’t get everything that he needs out of his Santa Anita Derby. Gary West of the Dallas-Ft Worth Star Telegram thinks the Derby winner is running somewhere tomorrow, because quite simply, they're better preps.

Their fields are full, or nearly so, and their fractions should be lively, and so they could come closer to simulating the most frenetic two minutes in sport than, for example, the recent Santa Anita Derby.

Brother Derek won the Santa Anita Derby, getting a comfortable lead in sleepy fractions while defeating four rivals, and with a string of four stakes victories behind him, he'll go to Churchill Downs as the Kentucky Derby favorite. But what do easy leads and five-horse fields prepare you for?

A stroll through the park, perhaps, or a parade down Easy Street, or maybe a merry search for Easter eggs, but certainly not for that turbulent, volatile, raucous scrum of a horse race known as the Kentucky Derby. No, the pace burns, the traffic bangs, and then a tsunami of noise floods the senses -- that's the Kentucky Derby.

And there’s also Bob Holthus, not an objective observer to be sure, who told Sports Illustrated of Brother Derek: "He ran against four horses with no pressure….I'm not sure his trainer got the race he needed.''

Friday Morning Notes - Apr 14

- Wow, did you see Minister’s Bid win the 6th at Keeneland Thursday? He’s another high priced Oxley-Ward horse; a $750,000 yearling at Keeneland 2004. It was his first start, and he was 6-1 morning line, and dead on the board at 9-1 as the fans went for Pletcher’s Minidrop, who was dead last down the backstretch and finished 9th. Always nice to be last at Keeneland, especially at 4-5. You should check this race out. Minister’ Bid (Deputy Minister)was a bit left at the gate, trailed the field briefly before moving up to 10th. After settling in, he took off and flew by the field effortlessly on the turn while five wide. After getting the lead, he goofed around a bit and bore in, but still drew off to win by nine in 1:17 for 6 ½ furlongs, the final sixteenth in 6.23 seconds. Minister’s Bid is out of the graded stakes winner Princess Pietrina (Spectacular Bid).

Perhaps we’ll see this one in the Lexington. John Ward, of course, will send Strong Contender into the Blue Grass on Saturday, and Nick commented:

I still don’t understand the love affair with Strong Contender, if I am missing something tell me about it Alan. It will be almost two months since his last start when he crushed a one other than allowance field in a one turn mile effort at Gulfstream.

Well, I have to say that Nick has a good point and I freely admit that I’ve more or less fallen for the hype on this horse. Nick is right; if you look at his pp’s, without the hype, he’s just an allowance winner trying stakes and two turns for the first time, and he’ll probably have to improve 5 or 6 Beyer points in the process off a two month layoff if he’s going to win. But I think he has an aura about him; he was very classy in winning his three year old debut, his first race in six months. His works have reportedly been spectacular, and I respect John Ward as a knowledgeable horseman who would refrain from doing anything reckless.....at least if he didn’t really think he had the horse to warrant it.

I’ve never been crazy about Bluegrass Cat; I feel that he’s beaten a bunch of second stringers. First Samurai could be the controlling speed, but 8-5 would be too cheap to accept on a horse who has to prove he can go this far. So I would bet Strong Contender at 4-1. Not at 5-2; I’d bet Bluegrass Cat if he gets away at something close to 7-2. Remember, he was very near the top of many people's Derby lists, and he may have had a legitimate excuse in the Tampa Bay Derby so I'd take a look if he's third choice. It’s not really a great betting race unless you want to make a case for one of the others.

Byron King of the Form is hoping for an overlay on Bluegrass Cat, and says that horses shipping into Keeneland from Tampa Bay don’t get much respect.

Through Thursday, horses that last raced at Tampa Bay had compiled a Keeneland record of 5 wins, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds from 19 starts. They also won at prices - all but one of the five winners paid $15 or more, including Bushfire, who paid $32.20 when she won the Ashland. [Daily Racing Form]

- Also at Keeneland, Perfect Drift ran second on the turf at even money in his debut as a 7 year old.

- Once the Florida Derby is done, Gulfstream fades from the consciousness, at least that of this horseplayer. The top trainers and jockeys were out of there in a flash. One owner who probably wishes he wasn’t there either is Michael Bone, who put in a $45,000 claim for Katy Texas, the 7-10 dropdown favorite for Edward Plesa in the 6th at the Gulf on Thursday. She was traveling OK in second down the backstretch, but she started to drop back around the turn, and then stopped suddenly and was eased. Talk about your worst nightmare, man! You claim a horse and hear Vic Stauffer say – “Something’s gone wrong with Katy Texas..” We hope she’s OK.

News and Notes - Apr 13

- A filly by first year sire Came Home (Gone West) won at Keeneland today. The eight-time graded stakes winner (SA Derby, Pacific, Hopeful were the Grade 1s) stands for $40,000 at Lane’s End, and on average, that was a bargain for breeders, as his 2005 yearlings averaged over $147,000 at sale (36 sold). In fact, his Stallion Register page proclaims The Leading First-Crop Yearling Sire at the 2005 Sales (3 or more sold). I believe this is his first winner; Beautiful Venue is out of a mare by the Seattle Slew mare Avenue of Flags. This is a half to the nice turf filly Laurafina.

- Barclay Tagg seems determined to get Showing Up to the Derby despite the fact that he’s had only two starts, and had a setback when he missed the Wood due to a bruised foot. Fitted with a metal plate to protect the injury, the son of Strategic Mission (Mr. Prospector) worked five furlongs in 58.48 seconds at Belmont, and is now being pointed to the Last Chance Stakes, aka the Lexington. Tagg admitted to the Thoroughbred Times that “it's probably not the smartest thing in the world to try and push him into something like the Derby.”

"But we'll put him in [the Lexington] and see how he does around two turns. If anything, it should set him up nicely for the Preakness [Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course on May 20.]"

But why would they ship him to Keeneland for the Lexington if they weren’t seriously thinking (dreaming) about the Derby; c’mon, really. Though it’s just a one-turn race, the Withers, at a mile at the Big A, is run on April 29th, and that race worked pretty well as a Preakness prep for Scrappy T last year.

- The Kentucky General Assembly adjourned with no action being taken in the Senate on the worker’s comp bill there; the bill passed the House handily 83-12 and had the support of Governor Fletcher. But the Senate Presiden, Republican David Williams said "Jockeys are independent contractors…..Independent contractors are not the responsibility of their employers."

- This is not my official Blue Grass preview, but I can tell you right now that I’m all over Strong Contender if he goes off at his morning line of 4-1. As you probably know, it will be his first race around two turns, and his first stakes race. The last Derby winner to race in only one previous stakes was Proud Clarion in 1967. [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Ledfords Get the Boot

- The New Jersey Racing Commission threw the book, and a couple of sulkies at driver Eric Ledford and his trainer-father Seldon, suspending the two for 10 1/2 years for a litany of violations, most notably, the use of the blood-doping agent Aranesp to enhance the performance of their horses.

Eric Ledford, according to the ruling, "did conspire with other licensees to engage in corrupt and fraudulent practices relating to racing insofar as Mr. Eric Ledford did accept a performance enhancing substance that is not approved for use in horses, specifically Aranesp, a brand of Erythropoietin, from a licensed veterinarian." As a result, he was suspended five years and fined $5,000. [Harness Link]

The father was also cited for the “possession of a shockwave therapy machine by your employees, in your stabling area" Ledford’s assistant and his wife were suspended for eight years, and his vet for seven. The reaction from the senior Ledford’s attorney was predictable.

"Seldon Ledford is confident that he will be completely exonerated once he receives a fair hearing before impartial judges who are not paid employees of the racing commission….. All of these folks intend to fight this suspension and to clear their good names no matter how long it takes." [NJ Star Ledger]

Well, what did you expect? “Yeah, you caught us, we did it?” About as likely as hearing the White House say: “Yeah, we knew all along that all that stuff about mobile biological weapons labs was bullshit.”

The strong circumstantial evidence of “mass quantities of drugs and syringes "all over the house" + inexplicable reversals of form = what, do you think we’re stupid?” won’t necessarily work in a real court of law. So we certainly haven’t heard the last of this. The suspensions are only effective in New Jersey – do you really think they’d be allowed to race in other states?

- Larry Jones, trainer of Josh’s Madelyn, who did well to rally from far back for second to Dubai Escapade yesterday, said that it was a familiar feeling. "Her half-sister (Madcap Escapade) used to hand us our head in a basket. It's a family tradition." [Lexington Herald-Reader] The winning trainer stated the obvious about this spot at Keeneland when he told the Form "Put her on the lead and put her on the rail, and you're pretty much home free."

Wednesday Night Notes - Apr 12

- Dr. Pleasure ran third in his return at Keeneland, but he was far behind the winner Nar (Northern Afleet). He’s another winner for Nick Zito with his only runner on the day, and my goodness, that’s six in his first ten starters! Nar ran 4th last time to Barbican, Laptop Computer, and Ice N Lemon, who won for Zito at 12-1 last weekend. He’s out of a mare by Country Pine, who won the Withers and ran second in the 1983 Wood to Bounding Basque, who I had in the 1985 Meadowlands Cup, a Grade 1 race at the time, at something like 60-1. I think that’s the highest mutuel win odds I’ve ever had.

-. Great finish in the Grade 3 Fifth Season stakes at Oaklawn, as 9-1 Kid Grindstone (Grindstone) came from nowhere to surprise the even money favorite Arch Hall. The winner had been running in optional claimers, but is now a graded stakes winner. This horse is inbred (3x4) to Drone, and also to Mr. Prospector (4x3), Tom Fool and Swaps (5x5). His second dam is the great champion Princess Rooney, winner of 17 out of 21, including the Oaks and the Distaff.

- Donation, the dam of Arkansas Derby favorite Lawyer Ron, is being sent to Smarty Jones. "The Smarty Jones–Donation match is a nice mating," said Three Chimneys matings advisor Anne Peters. "It triples up on Somethingroyal, who was the dam of Secretariat and a real goldmine of good genes." [Bloodhorse] Ms. Peters is the former editor of BRIS’ excellent Owner-Breeder International publication (which seems to have been discontinued), and was the co-author, with Alan Porter, of Patterns of Greatness II. And she’s into all that inbreeding stuff. She’s the self-proclaimed Pedigree Goddess. A line in her resume reads

1962. Could not convince parents to exchange newborn baby sister for a baby horse.

Keeneland Speed Not That Easy

- I posted the other day about a column that Steve Klein wrote in the Form about speed at Keeneland. He was talking about the return on betting front runners and pointed out, for example:

Horses with early speed are very profitable in 1 1/16-mile races. The early leader won 27 percent of those races, and bettors more than doubled their money at an ROI of $4.04.

But now, looking at the races there today, I realize that that statistic is mostly worthless from a handicapping standpoint; it’s all after the fact. If it said the ROI was $4.04 on horses that had the best pace figures in their last start, then that would be something else. It doesn’t really help in determining who to bet other than to tell you to bet speed, which you already know. If it tells you anything useful, I guess it would be to don’t be afraid to bet longer-priced horses if you think it has a shot for the lead.

In the first today, at that 1 1/16 distance, Dark Cloud went wire to wire and returned $31.20. Could I have had him? I suppose; he did score in front-running fashion at Turfway in his last, but against much cheaper. On the other hand, he stumbled at the start before rushing up to the lead and won in a lifetime best Beyer that was competitive with everyone except even money Bail Out The King. Who’s a closer. There were three other horses who looked like it was possible they could lead. Those who bet on the plodding favorite could not have been happy when they saw the half go in 49 seconds, and he spun his wheels, finishing 4th.

All six dirt races went virtually wire-to-wire, including Dubai Escapade (Awesome Again) in the G2 Vinery Madison; bias or no bias, she was great. Ever Elusive was under a drive around the turn while Edgar Prado was just going easily on this $2 million Darley filly. It wasn’t until around midstretch that Prado got after her at all, and she was hand ridden home by almost five in 1:22.34; final eighth in 12.74 seconds.

Battle Won ran second in his return to Charging Indian; that’s probably enough to get him back on top in Watchmaker’s sprinters top ten. The winner is now undefeated in four starts for trainer Walter Bindner, and looks to be ready for stakes company. He’s a four-year old son of Indian Charlie out of a Marquetry mare. Storm Surge got bet again, this time finishing 5th at 7-2.

Just Another Day at Keeneland

- Dr. Pleasure returns in the 4th at Keeneland on Wednesday. It's his first race since he was needlessly entered in the BC Juvenile. in which he finished 7th. Also in the race is Grand Survival, who was the even money favorite in the Arl-Wash Futurity off of one race, a maiden win at Saratoga. He finished 23 lengths behind Sorcerer's Stone. Patrick Biancone then wheeled him back in the Iroqouis, which he lost by 26.

In the 5th, Biancone unveils Close Secret, a $1.5 million three-year old Storm Cat filly. She's out of a stakes winning Relaunch mare who is a half-sister to the dam of Point Given.

Then in the 6th Biancone, who has two wins, a second, and two thirds so far at Keeneland, sends out Trolley's Last, making her first U.S. start. She's a four-year old Fusaichi Pegasus half-sister to Unbridled's Song. Also in that race, Dynamist makes her first start since last July; she won the Rhudy Memorial at Delaware.

In the 7th, Battle Won makes his first start since fading to 11th in the BC Sprint, and the money-burning Storm Surge is in the field too. And then the 8th is a stakes, the Vinery Madison Stakes; it's attracted Dubai Escapade, who will probably have to better her last effort, in which she was hard pressed to hang on at 1-5. And even the 9th is a nice looking turf allowance which has drawn Big Prarie, second to Rush Bay in the Jefferson Cup last year; he's been out since July.

And this is on a Wednesday afternoon! I'd get on the plane right now if I could; what a card! It makes you realize how mediocre, if not downright lousy, most of the weekday racing at Gulfstream seemed to be this year.

News and Notes - Apr 11

- The bill that would establish worker’s compensation coverage for jockeys in Kentucky by adding 1/10th of a percent to the mutual takeout will apparently die in the state Senate. It seems like a pretty painless way to cover the costs; I don’t think any bettor who calls himself a racing fan would object to such a relatively miniscule takeout hike; and those who do can go sit at a poker table with the other contemptible, despicable, loathsome, miserable, and vile people (and that's from a poker fan, folks). But some in the Senate don’t want to establish a precedent of providing insurance to independent contractors. Seems to me that jockeys are a pretty unique case, in that they engage in this particularly risky profession in an industry that provides jobs and lines the state coffers.

Matt Hegarty in the Form reports that another factor stalling the bill is the lack of breakdowns on the Polytrack surface at Turfway, and the fact that Keeneland is expected to install it too, leading to the hope that premiums will come down in the future. But the sunset clause in the proposed bill would allow it to expire or to be changed if warranted by such events. With tracks in the state currently providing coverage up to $1 million, the pressure on the lawmakers to act is diminished at this time.

- Two more horses in the Seldon Ledford stable have been found dead, these in Illinois. One recently claimed trotter was previously found deceased in his New Jersey barn.

Some Ledford horses have been transferred to other connections.

The pacers include Sleep Easy, a 4-year-old pacer who won four of five races when he was switched to the Ledford barn, and All Star Blue Jean, a 7-year-old pacer who turned in miles of 1:48.4 and 1:49.3 after being claimed for $50,000 and moved into Ledford's stable.

His best previous winning time in 2006 had been 1:53.4. [NJ Star Ledger]

- - Wild Fit is out of the Kentucky Oaks with a lung infection, and those who made her 8-1 in Pool 3 of the Oaks futures pool are out $4488. Yeah, that’s all, fortunately. The final pool of the Oaks attracted just $51,212, as opposed to $454,743 wagered on Pool 3 of the Derby.

Expensive Drink for a Worthy Cause

- Spirits maker Woodford Reserve will sell a $1,000 mint julep at the Derby this year.

The sweet cocktail will be made this year with one of the state's finest bourbons and served in a gold-plated cup with a silver straw to the first 50 people willing to put down the cash.

Mint from Morocco, ice from the Arctic Circle and sugar from the South Pacific are added luxuries that will put the drink in a class of its own, the distillery selling the premium drink said. [Lexington Herald-Reader]

It’s all for a great cause - proceeds will be sent by Churchill Downs to the NJ-based Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation. No word from YUM! Brands on whether they will offer a $1000 platinum bucket of KFC.

- Does Dan Hendricks sound just a little confident about Brother Derek?

"I hate to say it -- and I don't want to sound like I'm bragging -- but he seemed to handle that race like a workout….He wasn't breathing hard right after the race, and he has been bouncing around in his stall.

"Right now, this all feels good. I could not imagine having a better scenario unless we had Secretariat." [Albany Times-Union]

- Todd Pletcher has ruled out My Golden Song from the Derby; not so for Keyed Entry. "At the end of the day, I don't think he ran that bad a race…..Maybe with some adjustments -- slowing him down a little bit, a different surface -- who knows?” [Brisnet.com] I touted the colt here for the Wood, but I can no longer argue with those who say he can't get the distance. By the way, Bob and John was given a 99 Beyer for the win, which, given the fact that it was the only two-turn distance race of the day, is probably nothing more than an educated guess.

- Veteran columnist Jerry Izenberg also noticed that flood of late money that came in on Sweetnorthernsaint in the last two minutes, knocking him down from 2-1 to 6-5.

Those wagers set off more blinking lights than a corner candy store pinball machine.

Whoever dumped that money down wasn't an amateur. And they weren't wrong. [NJ Star Ledger]

I couldn’t believe it when they showed the odds on him during the race; I was thinking he'd gone off as the second choice. He earned a 109 Beyer for the race, the highest two-turn number for a three-year old this year. This is one serious Derby contender, I think. And another one from a relatively obscure sire – Sweetsouthernsaint (Saint Ballado) stands in Florida for a fee of just $3500, which I imagine will be going up. He was unbeaten in three starts at two, ran only once at three, a third to Cape Town in the Holy Bull, and twice more at four before being retired.

- David Cassidy's Mayan King, briefly on the Derby trail last year before being injured, made his first start since that time a winning one at the Big A on Saturday, paying $19.20.

Monday Night Notes - Apr 10

- Saturday was a big day for some of the big trainers. It was a worthwhile journey East for Bob Baffert, who won not one, but two graded stakes at the Big A, with Too Much Bling taking the G3 Bay Shore. Since seeing him get crushed by First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat late last year, Baffert turned him back to sprints and he’s won three stakes in a row. Meanwhile, back at Santa Anita, Baffert scored four winners, including the maiden win of Mr. Sekiguchi, and two seconds with six starters; even the seconds were fine – one was Point Determined, who probably ran well enough to earn a trip to Kentucky, and the other was Evaluate, runner-up to stablemate Three Points, and the losing 6-5 favorite. The winner is another Baffert son of Point Given, and he graduated in his sixth start after close seconds to Really Indian, Point of Impact, Tatsuji, and Fear No Darkness; promising colts all. He’s out of a Canadian stakes winning mare by Citidancer who is inbred 2x3 to Seattle Slew and his brother Lomond.

Besides taking the G1 Apple Blossom, Todd Pletcher also took the G1 Carter at the Big A with his six year old gelding Bishop Court Hill. And at 8-1!! He’s the first stakes winner of the year for sire Holy Bull, who’s had some bad luck of late with his Derby prospects. Sacred Light tasted dirt when he stumbled coming out of the gate for the SA Derby, and slightly grabbed a quarter, according to trainer David Hofmans, who did not have a good weekend at all. And Flashy Bull, of course, had those thumps. Both remain Derby candidates, though they both have earnings issues. Pletcher also ran second in the G1 Ashland with Wait A While. Two wins, a second and a third (Keyed Entry) in Grade 1 races, not bad.

Nick Zito had three winners at Keeneland on Saturday, including Giant Basil (Giant’s Causeway), a half brother to High Fly who has really taken to the grass after two awful dirt races (are you listening Highland Cat?) This was his third stellar turf effort in a row, and actually his first time first under the wire (he graduated via DQ). He was a nice price too at $16.60, under red-hot Julien Leparoux, as the fans went for Galantus, a sharp looking UK import from Angel Penna who ran second as the 3-1 choice.

- And speaking of High Fly, that brings me to Brother Derek. Walter disagreed with me saying that he would need to show another dimension to win the Derby, and I don’t disagree that he doesn’t have to be on the lead to win. I was talking more about that he’ll be experiencing things that he hasn’t in his preparation; and it’s in that way that he reminds me a bit of High Fly. One of the reasons I didn’t like him in the Derby last year was because he had raced only in Florida, had things pretty much his own way in his preps, defeating basically the same cast of characters with an occasional new face thrown in. Brother Derek, I think, is a far better horse than High Fly was at this point last year, don't get me wrong. But he’ll still have to do new things like win over an eastern track – and, as Walter correctly pointed out, “there are a lot of horse who've looked great in California, but simply don't handle the deeper surfaces as they head East.” (Brother Derek is actually o-for-1 out east, but we give him a pass on that because it was a one turn race.)

He’ll have to show that he can win in a big field, and there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll have to deal with a bump, or with traffic. He may have to show that he can beat a closely matched rival in a head-to-head duel down the stretch. All I’m saying is that I feel that he’s had a somewhat isolated and well-scripted preparation. The Derby is going to be a completely different experience than what he’s faced before, and unless he’s just head and shoulders above the rest, which is certainly possible, he’s probably going to have to overcome some kind real adversity and/or stare down an equally talented rival for the first time.

As far as his 5-1 line in the futures pool, how much lower could he possibly be on race day? As good as he’s been, you have a 20 horse field, an undefeated horse in Barbaro, Lawyer Ron, who, should he win the Ark Derby, would come in with imposing form (if not figs), and what if Strong Contender wins big on Saturday?

Besides, and here’s a bold prediction for you, if Discreet Cat is in the race, he will be the race favorite, and Brother Derek will be even closer to that 5-1.

Places Where Racing Still Matters

- Racing lives as a live spectator sport, at least in places like Saratoga, Lexington, and Hot Springs, Arkansas. Over 21,000 turned out at Keeneland on Saturday for the Ashland Stakes, and nearly 30,000 fans showed up at Oaklawn for that track’s two big stakes for older horses and mares. Imagine what kind of crowds will come to see the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby next week!

I must say that I liked Spun Sugar in the G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn on Saturday. I wanted to play favorite Happy Ticket to bounce a bit from her duel with Round Pond, and as for Star Parade.…well, I had no real reason to bet against her, really. If anything, she may have been an overlay as the 9-5 second choice. Spun Sugar would need to move up Beyer-wise about ten points to compete with these, but she just seemed like a typical Pletcher horse getting ready to take the big step forward into stakes company. Plus, as Patrick at PHBH pointed out, she was getting bet. If I hadn’t gotten distracted at home and forgot to bet, I would have lost the triple by virtue of 44-1 La Reason getting third; as I did want to use the 4th place finisher Platinum Ballet. Sometimes distraction can pay off.

What a race though; looked like Happy Ticket was going to make up for her tough loss in the Azeri, but instead, she suffered her second straight heartbreaking defeat. Nice confident ride by Mike Luzzi on the winner, allowing Star Parade to edge in front down the backstretch.

“I think [Pedroza’s ] horse [Star Parade] kind of got away with him a little bit down the backstretch, so I didn’t want to go yet. So I just cut my legs in there, and I had my eye on Robby on the outside.

“ I was just waiting to call on her.” [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

And the Stronach-bred was ready when called, as she outdueled the unlucky runner-up in final fractions of 24.51 and 6.11 seconds for the final quarter and eighth respectively. Another Grade 1 winner for Pletcher, what else is new?

Also scintillating, but for a different reason, was the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. Buzzard’s Bay was totally dominating in drawing away to win by a record 6 1/2 lengths. He got to the mile marker a full second faster than the fillies in the Apple Blossom did, and just cruised home in a final furlong of 12.78 seconds for a crisp final time of 1:48.22 on an Oaklawn track that has produced sluggish times all year. According to Robert Yates in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, it was the first and only appearance at Oaklawn by trainer Ron Ellis since he won the Apple Blossom ten years ago with Twice the Vice. Talk about picking your spots!

- The Green Monkey is stabled at Churchill Downs with Pletcher, and in what may be an understatement considering his $16 million price tag, the trainer said "I would say he's certainly the most anticipated arrival we've ever had." [Bloodhorse]

At Santa Anita, Mr. Sekiguchi the son of Storm Cat who cost only half as much as The Green Monkey, graduated in his second attempt on Saturday at Santa Anita.

- In an unbelievable bit of news even for New York, the Thoroughbred Times is reporting that the State Division of the Lottery has STILL not approved NYRA’s $190-million contract with MGM Mirage to build and operate a video lottery terminal casino at Aqueduct. But I’m sure we’ll be reading an editorial or two blasting NYRA for lagging behind. If and when the contract is finally approved, it will still have to be approved by both the State Comptroller and Attorney General before construction can begin. It's wouldn't take many more delays to mean that the racino won't be ready until after NYRA's franchise expires at the end of 2007. As it is, now we're talking summer of 2007 as a best case. Do you get the feeling that someone, somewhere wants it that way?

Out of Balance

- The installation of Polytrack at Keeneland will likely not stop trainers from using the “didn’t like the track” excuse, as they’ll simply say that their horses didn’t like the synthetic surface. Trainer David Hofmans and jockey Victor Espinoza both used that familiar explanation, when it comes to Keeneland, to explain the disappointing performance of Balance as the 1-2 favorite in the Ashland. "When (jockey Victor Espinoza) would ask her to run, she would really lose her footing and bobble a little bit.” The jockey concurred: "I don't feel like she handled this track." [Louisville Courier-Journal] She must really have been spinning her wheels, as she lost ample ground in the stretch to winner Bushfire, despite the fact that the latter, after reaching six furlongs in 1:10.93, took a full 27 seconds for the next quarter, and an additional 7.18 seconds for the final sixteenth. Yuck.

Nonetheless, Balance remained the 4-1 favorite in Pool 3 of the Oaks Futures wager, and Hofmans said she would “absolutely” return for the big race. As for Bushfire (Louis Quartorze), she confirmed her performance in winning the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay, another quirky surface that not everyone takes to. She’s out of Traki Traki, a stakes winning mare by Mo Power, and is a half to several winners, including stakes horses Frosty’s Girl and Frosty’s On Track. Bushfire, who was not included in the prior pools, closed as the 9-1 third choice in Pool 3.

What to Make of Wet Wood?

- OK, I admit it. I was not at the Wood Memorial on Saturday; me, Mr. I Love the Big A. A horrible cold, rainy day, parental responsibilities, and the lure of watching and wagering from the comfort of my home (not to mention the Rangers playing in Boston on NBC), added up to my first missed Wood in quite some time. With some deft juggling of the DVR, I was able to watch, almost live, both the race and Michael Nylander’s overtime winner for the Blueshirts that spared racing fans being greeted with another hockey shootout when they tuned into the Santa Anita Derby telecast. At least Team Belmont was at the Wood, and the photos here do a good job of conveying what it’s like to be at a soggy Aqueduct on its biggest day with only 6636 hearty fans in attendance (no thanks to me).

Derby preps run on a sloppy track such as the Wood always create some doubts about their credibility and meaning for the big race itself…..assuming that the track is dry on Derby Day, which we always seem to do. This Wood raises further questions because of the fact that the two front runners slowed to a virtual walk as they came to the wire. After three-quarters in 1:11, it took over 40 seconds for them to get home (as a comparison, Brother Derek cruised the last 3/8ths in 36.79 seconds despite being shut down at the finish); 14.06 ticks for the final furlong. It was somewhat reminiscent of last year’s Champagne, in which First Samurai slogged past an exhausted Henny Hughes under similar track conditions. Todd Pletcher, refusing to concede any distance limitations for Keyed Entry, sees that as a possible excuse.

''Originally, I thought the sloppy track was a blessing. I don't know if that was the case, considering they went the final eighth in .14. It looked like they all were laboring. We'll see how he comes out of it." [Boston Globe]

But Edgar Prado, in what is likely a more honest assessment, said "He tried hard, but a mile and an eighth appears to be too long." [NY Times] Sounds like he’s already narrowed his Derby options down to Barbaro and Strong Contender. Keyed Entry set an honest pace, and he did fight back, but it’s hard to picture him getting a mile and a quarter now.

Bob Baffert changed his tune on Bob and John after the race; he had said beforehand that he was worried about running in the slop, but afterwards he said "I wasn't worried about the footing….A good horse handles anything. This was a good test." [Phila Inquirer] Give this horse a lot of credit; he left his comfortable California setting and raced on a new track under adverse conditions, but still got the job done, final time notwithstanding. (This was the only two turn race of the day, so it will be interesting to see what the Beyer guys come up with and how they do so.) As Baffert said, "The only thing you learn…is the horse is a good horse." [Washington Post] And that he is; he’s never run a bad race, and perhaps the experience, assuming that the track was as tiring as it appears to have been, will be of more benefit to him for the rigors of a mile and a quarter than was Brother Derek’s public workout that Baffert avoided. ("Just goes to show you that there is so much speed in California, it's like a vacation when you get away from there.") [Newsday]

As for Jazil, I can picture Haskin already erecting a shrine to this one. I’ve said before that I like his style and love his breeding (both of which probably contributed to this effort in the slop), and his close for second place may indeed indicate that his poor performance in the Fountain of Youth was a fluke. But I wouldn’t get too carried away. He trailed the field, conserving all energy as the two front-runners went for the win, saved all the ground, and was simply the only one still running in the final furlong. Iggy Puglisi on TVG pointed out that it can be a far different result when a horse like Jazil lays back and just tries to pick up pieces rather than being ridden to win. That doesn’t preclude the Derby falling apart like last year and allowing a horse like this to win; but Jazil could get significantly overbet off this race if he does go to Churchill.

- As for Brother Derek, there’s no disputing how impressive he was in dispatching some nice horses with sheer ease, and under a long hold late. Alex Solis, who called him “a monster,” said he didn’t have much to do. "He came out of the gate like a cat, glided up there and I didn't have to do anything." [NY Times]

If there’s anything to criticize here, it’s that it may have been all too easy; and in fact, perhaps his entire campaign this year has been too. He hasn’t left the friendly confines of California, has faced a total of just 13 horses in his three preps, and surely won’t be allowed to dictate the race unopposed as he was on Saturday. Trainer Dan Hendricks is realistic about what lies ahead:

"It's a 20-horse field, it's going to suit a horse that comes from off the pace, and a horse that maybe wants to go that route….If we get the suicidal pace, it's going to hurt us. We'll pray that won't end up the scenario, but with 20 horses it just makes it hard." [USA Today]

That scenario is likely, as Hendricks well knows, even if there are no Spanish Chestnuts aiming for the race, and Brother Derek is going to have to show a different dimension if he’s going to wear the Roses. But he’s done nothing wrong thus far, and will be the deserved favorite on May 6.

- As for the Illinois Derby, Cause to Believe may have gotten most of the pre-race hype, but the bettors weren’t fooled and pounded Sweetnorthernsaint down to the solid 6-5 favorite in the closing minutes, despite his ten post. And though he stalked a 27-1 shot through a slow pace, he drew off impressively and, like Brother Derek, came home in real racehorse time – the final three furlongs in 36.72 seconds in the final eighth in 12.08 while being ridden out. Kent Desormeaux pointed to his third place finish in the Gotham as “the day he became a man,'' [Chicago Sun-Times] and trainer Michael Trombetta said that he built on the experience here. "There was always a question of ratability. He showed today he can do whatever [Desormeaux] wants him to do." [Thoroughbred Times]

Jerry Hollendorfer is not giving up on Cause to Believe, who could only rally for third.

"I'm not going to make any excuses, but we didn't get the kind of pace we needed today….I didn't expect to run third, but he did gallop out well after the race and came back to the barn in very good shape." [San Francisco Chronicle]

The Runningest One

- I was out at the barn area this morning, but Christening was not. Our Vicar filly has been sent down to Delaware to work for some prospective buyers. I'm getting the vibes that it's Castle Village's half-partner in this venture that is pushing the sale of the filly before she races. A horse can lose a lot of value after its first race; in this case, the fear is that it can go to from an estimsted $50-60,000 to around zero or so. Well, not quite that low, because as a filly with some decent bloodlines and some decent recent stakes horses like Ender's Sister, Ender's Shadow, Royal Assault and Stolen Prayer all amongst the second dam's descendants (not to mention million dollar earner Fit For A Queen), she would have at least some value as a broodmare.

Highland Cat has no breeding value, as you know, and wouldn't even if he hadn't been gelded...at least at this point. There's always that hope that a horse will take to the grass, and that's next; there's a race written for April 30. Highland Cat came out of Friday's race with some sore hocks, and is being treated, but it's just minor and he should be as ready as he ever is.

I asked Bill Turner about Mum's The Word, the Real Quiet filly that we sold last year, and he rolled his eyes and said "Boy she can run! She the runningest thing I got in here right now." Oh man.. Her half mile work in :47 2/5 was her first timed breeze in two months, but he said she's been training up a storm. He said she galloped out in 59 and something, and that she could run in around three weeks. Maybe I can make back some Highland Cat money by betting on the one that may have gotten away.

- Lots of kids this weekend, and Rangers games too....I'll be back soon to own up about Keyed Entry and talk about a pretty great Saturday of racing.

Getting Desperate

- With Highland Cat’s never-in-it sixth in yesterday’s maiden claimer, the fortunes of my partnership, which started out on such a high note when the first of our yearlings, a colt by Deputy Minister, was sold for a healthy profit right of the bat (EZ game!), have reached its nadir. Despite being gelded, the horse is just not competitive, at least at these levels and on a dirt track. He will try the turf next time; but it’s one of those cases where it’s more out of desperation than anything else. If he fails – and he’ll only be given one shot to prove he can compete on grass here – he’ll likely be finding himself a new home, perhaps in Delaware with its slots-laden purses and softer competition.

Meanwhile, with Highland Cat floundering and our filly Christening (Vicar) yet to start, the expenses are piling up. Christening has been impressive in workouts, but the partnership is wary of the idea of possibly having to carry the cost of two horses not paying their way should she not replicate her morning speed in races. She’s been trained with an eye towards popping her first time out so that she could be sold, and that’s not characteristic for our trainer Bill Turner. And now, they’re getting scared to start her at all, lest a poor debut preclude the possibility of her ever being marketable. So, her debut is being put off until at least April 19, and, in fact, we’re told that she may instead be sent to Delaware to work out for interested buyers there.

And just to rub it in, on the same morning that Highland Cat performed dismally once again, Mum’s The Word, the Real Quiet filly that we did manage to sell last year, blazed a half mile in 47.27 seconds, the second fastest of 46 at the distance.

- Edgar Prado will ride Keyed Entry later today, but regardless of the outcome, he won’t be making his decision on who he’ll ride in the Kentucky Derby just yet. Having ridden Barbaro last week and chosen Strong Contender over First Samurai in next week’s Blue Grass, Prado and his agent Bob Frieze will have to decide amongst the three, and will wait as long as possible to do so. But Bill Finley reports in the NY Times that Michael Matz, based on past experience, will likely press him for a decision soon.

Matz believed he had a commitment from Prado to ride Kicken Kris in the 2004 Arlington Million. Instead, Prado informed him a few days before the race that he would be riding Magistretti for trainer Patrick Biancone.

Forced to scramble, Matz called upon Kent Desormeaux. It worked out fine for Matz. Kicken Kris won through disqualification, while Magistretti finished third.

"That made me look silly to my owner," Matz said, referring to Elizabeth Moran. "I told her we had Edgar lined up, and then they told me they never gave me a call on the horse. It's over and done with, but I don't want to get myself in the same position. I told Bob Frieze not to wait until the last minute to let me know what they're doing." [NY Times]

- Over 18,000 greeted the opening of the three week spring meeting at Keeneland, and they saw mutuel fireworks in the opening stake of the meet. The Grade 3 Central Bank Transylvania turned out to be very scary for chalk players. Frankel’s To Sender was the 4-5 favorite off of his win in the Pasadena at Santa Anita, but he was finished after six furlongs. Instead it was Chin High (Smart Strike), at a whopping 68-1, who rallied for the win, and when 24-1 Le Plaix got up for the place, it completed an exacta payoff of $1239.20. Chin High was coming off a couple of nice dirt efforts at Evangeline, but his one prior turf effort was poor.

Wanderin Boy (Seeking the Gold) got back on track for Zito with a ten length win after a couple of disappointing efforts.

Baffert Determined to Make a Point

- Brother Derek (Benchmark) certainly looks like the likely winner of the Santa Anita Derby; he’s undefeated around two turns, has earned three consecutive triple digit Beyers, and the “private” clocker report that was apparently leaked to the press said he was “sensational.” There’s little negative to be said about him. But at 3-5 morning line against some quality horses, let’s try. We can start (and end) with the fact that you could, I suppose, question what he’s beaten. Not that they’re bad horses at all, but a cynic could point out that Stevie Wonderboy has never won around two turns, and that AP Warrior and Bob and John have improved since losing to Brother Derek, and that Your Tent Or Mine lacked much experience at all.

Well, perhaps that’s a stretch. But we can try to beat him anyway; as I said, this is a pretty decent field, it’s his first try at the distance, and he doesn’t have to prove himself nor win to be purse-money eligible.

I’m going to go with Point Determined (Point Given). I loved A.P. Warrior’s race in the San Felipe, and his 101 Beyer is just a point less than what Brother Derek got in the Santa Catalina. He has a flashy pedigree, by AP Indy, and he descends directly from the dam of Storm Bird. Trainer John Shirreffs says that he “seems to have a real large lung capacity,” [Dallas-Ft Worth Star Telegram], though I doubt he can expel as much as hot air as what’s coming out of the White House. (Don’t worry Brad…much more where that came from) However, that was a huge step forward he made in what was his first race in six weeks – and watching the replay, he was a full four wide the entire far turn. It had to be a really tough race, and despite his sharp works since, perhaps he’ll regress just a bit.

Sacred Light (Holy Bull) closes consistently, but has never been first under the wire (his one win was by DQ). No doubt he’s a factor in the exotics, but I’ll wait until he’s 50-1 in the Derby to take a stab.

Point Determined, like Bob and John, is being brought along slowly but steadily by Bob Baffert, and definitely seems to be on the improve. "Victor (Espinoza) worked him the last couple times…..He didn't really like him much earlier in the year, but now I think he's really sorry that Balance is racing on the same day." [SGV Tribune] Well, we’ll see about that; but Point Determined improved to a 100 Beyer in his second place finish to AP Warrior in the San Felipe. He had a kinder trip than the winner, and mounted his rally after having what Baffert termed a “stop and go” trip through the stretch. I think he may be more likely to move forward here, and is taken to upset, as they say.

- Lawyers for the accused in the New Jersey harness scandal went on the offense, pointing out there is no evidence directly linking the medication found by state police to any horses.

"There is no evidence [vet] Dr. Witmer did anything to affect a race," said Donald Lomurro. "You had Aranesp in the refrigerator of a veterinarian who can possess it legally and dispense it."
…..
"There is no evidence that any outcome of any race was affected," [Seldon Ledford attorney Timothy Donohue] said. "I could have any of these things in my house and it would not be a violation of the racing regulations even if I was a licensee." [Newsday]

Oh, really now! Why would a horse vet, or any racing licensee possess the kind of quantities of a drug for anemia as were apparently discovered? ..The police testified that they found the drugs "all over the house" and in a garage refrigerator.

[State Police Detective Sgt. Brice] Cote said the searches netted substantial quantities of Aranesp. Troopers also seized various injectable foreign substances that were not labeled or identified, hypodermic needles, and syringes from the stable. [Asbury Park Press]

Unfortunately, common sense is often not admissible in legal proceedings; though I imagine the threshold of necessary proof for a state racing board is less than that of a court; and Eric Ledford faces a possible indefinite ban. Bill Finley of ESPN.com points out that much more has to be done if the racing industry is serious about stopping illegal medication.

"The average drugging testing lab in America cost about $2 million, with equipment," said thoroughbred trainer Michael Dickinson, an anti-drug crusader. "There is one at UCLA that cost $4 million. Labs in England, Hong Kong and Australia cost $20 million. We have to do a lot more with research. We hardly do any research at all in this country. And we need more qualified people working on the designer drugs."

Dickinson also says it is imperative that racing begins to freeze urine samples, which would allow chemists to go back and take a second look, using updated methods, at tests involving suspicious trainers.

The question is whether or not the sport has the appetite to do the right thing, which would involve a costly and difficult fight that could inevitably bring down some of the biggest names in the sport. I'm not sure that it does. Please prove me wrong. [ESPN.com]

Wood Memorial a Keyed Prep

- Keyed Entry and Bob and John, two of my preferred slightly-under-the-radar Derby horses go head to head in the Wood on Saturday. The assumption is that the track is going to turn up sloppy - rain is expected most of the day Friday into early Saturday - and that may mean that the race will lose at least one contender. Trainer Tom Albertrani said that if it rains, "we might be out as well," referring to his Tampa Bay Derby winner Deputy Glitters. With Like Now and Showing Up having been withdrawn due to a fever and bruised foot respectively, the absence of Deputy Glitters could mean a lone speed scenario for Keyed Entry. Add in sloppy conditions, and Pletcher’s colt could freak as he did in the Hutcheson, and we could have a wet version of Bellamy Road’s tour de force in last year’s edition.

But I love Keyed Entry in the Wood under any track conditions and even if the contenders who’d scratched hadn’t. Many people took his defeat in the Gotham as an indication that the horse is a miler like his sire Honour and Glory; and that he won’t go any further. I disagree. The race was kind of a training exercise for Keyed Entry, as he showed a different dimension, relaxing comfortably a few lengths behind Like Now, even as that front runner slowed the pace to :47 3/5 to 1:12 1/5 after an opening quarter of :23 1/5. Like Now’s trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, conceded afterwards that “[Prado] had the horse to go past us, but he decided to sit off us." Coming out of the turn, he set off in pursuit, changed leads professionally at the top of the stretech, even as Like Now, having been given a bit of a breather, picked up the pace a bit in the 4th quarter, and slowly cut into the lead as they hit the wire,

Perhaps some are put off by the fact that it wasn’t really a furious close, and I can’t say that he would have zoomed by if the race was a few yards longer. But taking a look at the head-on shot of the finish (and you can do so at the Cal Racing site), Like Now bore out as they approached the wire, driving Keyed Entry out in the process, and it seems to me there was even some contact there right towards the end. I’m a little surprised that Prado didn’t object, actually. But even forgetting that, remember that Keyed Entry had every right in the world to regress a bit (or more) in the Gotham, after running six furlongs in 1:07 3/5 en route to his 110 Beyer in the Hutcheson, the highest by a three-year old this year. As Pletcher said, "He accomplished everything we hoped except winning." [NY Post]

Pletcher also reflected the options he now has with the colt after that performance:

"He can run from off the pace if we need to do that, but maybe letting him be a free-running horse is his best style…We're certainly not going to try to take him off the pace. The most likely scenario is he's going to be on the lead, but if somebody else wants the lead then that's fine, too." [Daily Racing Form]

The only possible challengers for the lead look to be Deputy Glitters (Deputy Commander) or longshot Marco’s Tale (Tale of the Cat), who was specifically entered for that purpose when Like Now and Showing Up defected. However, he’s simply not fast enough. Deputy Glitters is an interesting case; was his improvement in his last two due to him racing around two turns, as Albertrani claims ("Running him longer -- that was the whole key"), or was it instead due to the quirky Tampa Bay track that he perhaps took a liking to? In any event, I don’t think he’s fast enough either; and besides, he looks more like a stalker than a horse who wants the lead.

I’m also very high on Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) as a Derby prospect, though honestly, I’m surprised that he was installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite in this race over Keyed Entry. Besides his classic pedigree, I love the way Baffert has campaigned him, bringing him along slowly but surely, and making progress every race. And yes, that includes his troubled third in the San Felipe, in which he was far further back than usual, recovered, circled five wide into the turn, and finished a game third. Assuming he reverts to his more natural stalking style in the Wood, he should be able to track Keyed Entry and make a run at him in the stretch. I think he’ll come up a bit short, but a solid effort would do nothing to dim his prospects in the Derby, a race which will obviously be a far different scenario. Baffert has expressed some concern about the weather, but Bob and John has a Tomlinson rating of 404, for whatever that means.

Greeley’s Legacy (Mr. Greeley) finished pretty well for 4th in the Gotham, and is moving in the right direction, and can’t be ignored for exotics.

Jazil (Seeking the Gold) is an interesting case; I’d been very high on him, based on his rousing closes, and his tremendous pedigree, which I wrote about here. He was a dull and disappointing 7th in the Fountain of Youth, after finishing less than length behind Corinthian a few weeks prior. But McLaughlin, who has been coming with some novel excuses of late, particularly the electrolyte imbalance that caused Flashy Bull to make rumbling noises in the Florida Derby, claims that he bled despite the fact that he’s always raced on Lasix. What then, is to prevent him from bleeding again? Yeah, it’s hot in Florida, but it was hot the prior race too. And if, as Haskin claims in touting Jazil as the Wood winner, you have to like him if you liked Corinthian, why was he 24-1 in the Fountain of Youth, while Corinthian was the 7-1 third choice? Still, he’s had two big efforts on this track, and it wouldn’t take much for me to grow to like him again, given his closing style and breeding. I’ll have to throw a couple of bucks on him as a saver.

- The folks who determine the betting interests for the Derby futures pool didn't buy the electrolyte excuse for Flashy Bull, and left him out of Pool 3. I think he's a candidate for 1-800-NODERBY.