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Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Beyer Upgrade Not Enough

- Lawyer Ron’s Beyer for the Rebel got revised upwards a couple of points to a 94, but that still makes him slower than the other prep winners. ESPN’s Randy Moss does the Beyers for Oaklawn, and this article in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette provides some insight on the calculation.

.. Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee, also part of the Beyer network, said Moss based the figure using a variant of minus-6 for the first 10 races, meaning the surface was six points faster than normal. What may have made Lawyer Ron’s number lower than expected, Lee said, was rainfall shortly before the Rebel, the 10 th of 11 live races.

“The rain made the last two races tricky,” said Lee, who corresponded with Moss about the number through e-mail. “But he decided to group the Rebel with the first nine races, and then he made the [11 th race] his race where he deviated from the minus-6. He thought the track slowed up quite a bit for the [11 th] race.”
Again, I’m usually wrong when I question the Beyer numbers, but I think it’s useful to keep in mind just how subjective the numbers can sometimes be.

- John Ward spoke to the Thoroughbred Times about the similarities (and differences) between his Derby winner Monarchos and Strong Contender, his prospect for this year.
"Monarchos was a medium-sized, compact kind of horse. Strong Contender is a great big, long, lanky kind of animal. As far as training the animals in the genetics, it appears like Maria's Mon puts a lot of stamina in these horses, and that's the similarity. It's amazing how deep they are as far as their stamina goes. ...[Monarchos] used every bit of energy that he had. This horse is the same way. He worked the other day and we really just wanted him to go easy, and he went 1:00 easily [for five furlongs]. Galloping out a mile, he went :59.80, 1:12.40, 1:26, and pulled up the mile in 1:38 and wouldn't blow out a match. So being able to use that long stride efficiently is what he and Monarchos both have." [Thoroughbred Times]
- The chairman of the Kentucky House committee that is considering legislation to mandate workers comp insurance for jockeys says that the bill is dead due to problems created by the compromise amongst jockeys, tracks, and owners to have the bettors pay the premiums via a .1% increase in the mutual takeout.
"As far as I'm concerned, we've said grace and given it its last rights," [Rep. Denver] Butler said of the bill, which would make bettors pay the cost of insuring riders.

Butler said the proposed bill has changed so much during recent weeks that members of the committee can't support it because they no longer understand what it does.

"That's a lie," responded the bill's primary sponsor, Democratic Rep. Carolyn Belcher of Owingsville….."There is absolutely no excuse for that bill to be dead this session…” [Lexington Herald Reader]
Belcher will try and move the bill to another committee. Meanwhile, U.S. Congressman Ed Whitfield is working on a federal measure in the form of an amendment to the Interstate Horseracing Act that would provide for workers comp for jockeys and all backstretch workers, including trainers, to be paid for out of simulcast revenues.

- Highland Cat worked five furlongs in 1:02.85, third fastest of ten at the distance. His race on Sunday didn’t fill, so we’re now looking a 50K maiden claimer on April 7. Christening may debut in a six furlong maiden special on the 12th.

1 Comment:

Walter said...

...nice article about Discreet Cat on the Bloodhorse site...Godolphin seems to be playing down his Derby chances, but i suspect the horse will have the final say on Saturday...here's the link...

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32674