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Thursday, April 21, 2005

Coolmore Lexington

- Eight go in the Lexington at Keeneland, where one would think the results are meaningless if you listen to some of the things said and written after the Blue Grass about the "quirkiness" of the surface there. Of course, all eyes will be on Rockport Harbor. A big performance could propel him into the Derby though Servis sounds like he’s going to be very discerning when judging whether he thinks the horse is ready, and I believe him. Imagine if he does win impressively in a good time and gallops out the extra sixteenth to Servis' satisfaction; I think this Derby could use a little intrigue of that kind. The way the prep winners have been blowing out their opponents has made the field seem less deep than it once did.

Going Wild is 4-1 morning line. If he runs a big race, then Bellamy Road could look even better. Storm Surge will make his first appearance since his 3rd in the La Derby; believe it or not, he’s good to go at 17th on the graded earnings list. And if there ever was a candidate for 1-800-NO-DERBY, it’s Sort It Out; he hasn’t earned a graded cent and would need to take all the money to have a shot. I’m not going to touch this race. I predict that Rockport Harbor will win, but that he will not go to the Derby and instead wait for the Preakness, where Greeley’s Galaxy may be fresh and waiting too if we don't vote enough of these horses outta here!