Beginner's Luck

- Based on what seems to be general blog courtesy, I guess I need to apologize for letting personal matters get in the way and not posting yesterday. I also took the opportunity to do some things I’ve been meaning to do for weeks on end, but haven’t since I’ve put so much time into this site. I bought some CDs, including the new release by Stephen Malkmus and the Jicks, and did some other shopping online, though that doesn’t seem to be a great idea these days. With 40 million credit card accounts having been compromised by a security breach, there’s got to be a decent chance that yours or mine are amongst them, isn’t there? Perhaps you don't want to read this article in the Times on the thriving black market in credit card info. I also did some research into getting a Windows laptop so that I can once again utilize Formulator and Thoroughbred Daily News’ race replays, adding possible information overload to what has been a fairly successful handicapping process of late. Perhaps I don’t really need to know what Todd Pletcher’s record is with dark bay or brown horses coming off 53 day layoffs, switching from turf to dirt and back to turf and racing on odd days of months with less than 7 letters. But if it’s available, this horseplayer feels that he needs to know. I also got to clean my room, bathe, and lose money on harness races from Mohawk Racetrack. A productive night indeed.

- Mike Watchmaker in the Racing Form takes a look at the National Pick 4 payoff this past weekend and says, I can't blame anyone if they are already lining up to bet the next NTRA Pick 4, which is on Aug. 13. That’s for sure.

An odds-on favorite in Ashado ($3.70) started it off, followed by a third choice in Two Trail Sioux ($9.80), followed by another odds-on favorite in Saint Liam ($3.80), with Lava Man ($19.80) completing the sequence in what seemed like an obvious spread race. The $1 parlay for these win prices was $167. The actual $1 payoff was $454, more than 2 1/2 times the parlay. [Daily Racing Form (sub. Only)

My problem was that the Fleur de Lis also seemed like a spread race to me so I punked out altogether; I couldn’t make heads nor tails of either race, though Two Trail Sioux doesn’t seem too difficult in retrospect. These multi-race wagers are a new toy for me; I’d mentioned that I learned much from the smart guys I was at the Belmont with, and I’m almost embarrassed to admit that Pick 3s and 4s were never on my betting menu. I rarely have time these days to do the advance work that is required, and I’ve never been much able to look past the upcoming race, especially when I’m already a bit scatterbrained from all the simulcast choices. I do try to handicap the night before, but I’ve usually handicapped the horses rather than the races; and then on race day I put everything together as post time approaches, closely watching the board, and often not wagering until the final minutes, if not seconds.

But I hit two Pick 3s this past weekend, so I’m pretty much hooked. I must admit I didn’t have to put all that much work into what was a bonanza payoff on Sunday. With short fields, I had a 5-2 single, an “all,” and two horses in the final leg, with the winner going off 3-1. I got extremely lucky when the “all” worked in my favor. I was advised to not cut corners with these wagers, and I have anyway, and that will certainly catch up if I don’t change my ways. I’m chalking it up to beginner’s luck, just like when a newbie wins his/her first bet, which seems to always happen, doesn’t it?

Not for me. It must have been around 1971, and despite the fact that I was almost exclusively a harness guy for the first few years, my first track visit ever was to Aqueduct. I was with one of my two mentors, who I’ll refer to as Furms. The betting age was 21, but a pair of sunglasses did the trick for him – I looked like I was around 12, so I had no shot, thus Furms put the bets in. My first ever wager on a horse race was a steeplechase affair; I no longer recall the name of the horse, but I distinctly recall his 4-1 odds. The horse quickly opened up a sizeable lead and it stayed that way throughout as they circled into the stretch for the final time. Victory was nigh in my first try ever, and as they approached the final fence, I yelled out these exact words in my barely-pubescent little voice:

“Don’t fall, you fucking horse!”

Perhaps I shouldn’t have used such harsh language, but I probably don’t have to tell you that the horse promptly flopped on its face. Could there have possibly been a clearer message from the heavens to me to go home and NEVER, ever return again? Fortunately, I didn’t listen, but to this day, I’ve just never been that lucky at the track and in fact, that Pick 3 on Sunday must certainly rank in my top ten five of racing luck. I haven’t been put up from a disqualification in 20 years, at least; I’ve never found a winning ticket on the floor; never bet the wrong horse and have it win, and have never had to report any winnings to the IRS. It seems that everyone else I know has some kind of happy story for each of these, while I only have the sad ones of the flip side. Still plenty of time left though, I hope....

- Megahertz is scheduled to return in Saturday’s Beverly Hills Handicap at Hollywood; Bobby Frankel has accepted her 124 pound weight assignment, the same handicap he deemed to be too much for the Gamely.

- Don’t Get Mad is headed back to California, where he’ll be pointed for the Swaps Stakes on July 9 at a mile and an eighth. A good showing in the 1 1/8-mile Swaps likely would earn Don't Get Mad a shot at Afleet Alex in the Aug. 27 Travers at Saratoga, said [Ron] Ellis. [DRF] So much for the theory, embraced whole-heartedly by yours truly, that he’s a one-turn horse; though now he’ll have to show that he’s not just a horse for the Churchill course.

- Please feel free to email me with comments, links, questions, or suggestions.