Saturday Morning Notes - Jan 31

I bet and picked Break Water Edison in the Hutcheson, and he checked in dead last. Sometimes I feel stupid in retrospect for a bet gone bad; but other times, like this one, I figure the logic was sound and the horse just ran bad. So we just move on.

With West Side Bernie (3-1) and Beethoven (4-1) stuck on the outside, a couple of longshots drawn inside of them piqued my interest in Saturday's Holy Bull. El Crespo (12-1) had a sluggish debut, but turned things around with a narrow loss and a win after switching to turf. Or maybe it was because of adding blinkers; or stretching out in distance. Plenty of grass pedigree here for this half brother to grassy stakes winners Rey De Cafe and Tricky Causeway, out of a half-sister to the likewise King Cugat. But his third dam is Con Game, the dam of Seeking the Gold and Fast Play, and you'd expect a son of AP Indy out of a Private Account mare to handle dirt.

Stately Character (20-1) beat This Ones For Phil in winning the Foolish Pleasure in December, before that one became the fastest horse in the world. This son of Pleasant Tap came back off a subsequent freshening with a solid third over the track, not far behind Remsen runner up Atomic Rain and McPeek's impressive Free Country. I think he can outrun his odds here for trainer Gerald Procino.

Danger to Society (5-1) is another hyped McPeek horse, and I think he'll likely go off at lower odds than indicated. Son of Harlans Holiday out of a half-sister to Silver Charm handled winners and two turns just fine in winning his second race in as many tries. Looks like the logical choice inside of the favorites.

- I hate Einstein as the 5-2 ML favorite in the Donn. Hate him. I do get myself in trouble at times when pick against specific horses here, but don't bother writing to mock me if he wins this time. Not saying he can't do so. But I do think he would be a poor wagering proposition as the favorite breaking from the ten post. I'm still not convinced he's a top stakes horse on dirt; for one thing, he's benefited from a series of beneficial post draws. In fact, his weakest effort of the last year was the last time he drew poorly - the eight post in the Donn last year. Bad luck of the draw again here, and I think it's worth a stand against. Similarly, Albertus Maximus (4-1), who figures to take money on the strength of his BC Mile win, has been running strictly on synthetics (though he did break his maiden on dirt), and has to be considered a question mark as he preps for Dubai.

I'll go with Arson Squad (3-1), another example of a horse turning it around after switching to Rick Dutrow. Six-year old gelded son of Brahms really floundered for trainer Bruce Headley after winning the Strub in 2007. However, after switching to Dutrow, he improved his Beyer 13 points in winning the Meadowlands Cup - thus contributing to the astounding 34% of first-time Dutrow runners which have won over the last two years - and then ran a close 4th in the Cigar Mile last November, his most recent race to this point. Back to two turns and to the winners circle (he says brashly) here. Babe.