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Friday, March 06, 2009

Aqueduct Saturday

In the second at the Big A on Saturday, Cary Again (6-1) tries to bounce back from a troubled NY and two-turn debut for Pletcher. The Toddster is going great guns these days; four winners and two seconds from his nine here, and six out of his last ten at Gulfstream (with a winner at Santa Anita on Wednesday thrown in too)! This horse is a Stonerside-bred and thus Darley-owned half-brother, by the ubiquitous Unbridled's Song, to the multiple G1 winner Congaree, standing at Adena for $10,000. Cary Again stumbled just a bit at the start, but was in tight quarters all the way home from the 3/8ths. Winner Haitian Sensation subsequently ran a good second against winners; third place Weekend Action finished third, also against winners. There would seem to be room for tons of upside here...though I rather doubt we'll see 6-1. You might have noticed that I often land on the horses who end up getting bet if not having their picture taken. That means that not only do I pick losers, but overbet ones at that.

Buddy's Song (6-1) also encountered some trouble when making his first two turn try last time out; he steadied quite sharply on the first turn, and ran evenly afterwards for Levine, in a mini-slump at 1 for 14. Flat Bold is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, and I'm not getting that one. (And he's also the consensus best bet in the Form!) Perhaps the oddsmaker is just anticipating a large West Point contingent on a Saturday. This son of the AP Indy sire Flatter has run only in two sprints on the Cushion Track at Hollywood; and not much pedigree there either. He's a bet-against on principle should he be favored here.

I Want Revenge is another making his dirt debut, in the Gotham, but I quite like this one, as indicated in this post. I would, however, be more comfortable at 4-1 or higher than his 3-1 morning line. That's a possibility I think, as Mr. Fantasy (7-2) and Haynesfield (5-1)....and possibly even the buzz horse Imperial Council (5-2)....may be bet lower than their morning odds. The latter is a horse I could really get excited about. If the patient Shug is cranking him up early with an eye on the classics, then there must be a good reason. By Empire Maker, he's out of a minor stakes winning Thunder Gulch mare; and this is the family of The Pamplemousse (they have the same third dam) as well as the G1 winner Marlin. But he also is a bet-against on principle as the favorite here making his two-turn debut. I can always jump on the bandwagon later on.


Lovingtheracehorse said...

I agree fully on Imperial Council. I rarely like getting on buzz horses - but after handicapping - he's the one I like the best for the Gotham.

Anonymous said...

My ML:

Haynesfield 2-1, Mr. Fantasy, 3-1, I Want Revenge,9-2, Masala, 5-1, Imperial Council, 6-1, Axel Foley 8-1.

Anonymous said...

Regarding your angle on Shug, if the horse was owned by Phipps or Janney, I would concur, but this one is owned by a racing partnership formed with the stated goal of buying colts to make it to the Derby so this may very well be a case of the owner dictating the spot.

That typed, he has done nothing wrong to date but would be a huge underlay at 5-2 in this spot.

Why Haynesfield gets so little respect is beyond me, if Assmussen was shipping in a horse to run here they would be all over it, but because the horse has been here all winter he must prove himself? Certainly has been beating more than Mr. Fantasy and just as easily in a faster raw time at the distance. No respect.

DC said...

Aqueduct - Race 9

#8 I Want Revenge (3/1 ml)

Hard-knocking California shipper figures to be overlooked here despite the short morning-line price, as most of the hype surrounding this race has been directed at Mr. Fantasy. Morning-line favorite Imperial Council and 3-time local stakes winner Haynesfield also figure to attract a lot of support, so it's possible I Want Revenge goes off as low as 4th-choice here. Regarding his credentials, he comes off a close third to the upper-echelon Derby contender Pioneerof the Nile (after looking every bit a winner coming off the turn). Rider Joe Talamo even stated in his post-race quotes (found on the Santa Anita website) that he "wasn't wondering if he was going to win, but rather by how much" or something to that effect. Talamo has speculated that I Want Revenge wasn't able to dig in very well on the Pro-Ride, and thinks perhaps a switch to dirt will help. Could well have been a surface issue, because I Want Revenge was able to finish quite strongly at the identical distance when just missing to Pioneerof the Nile (yet again) back at Hollywood Park. I Want Revenge also happened to beat Chocolate Candy that day, who has since returned to win the California Derby and El Camino Real @ Golden Gate. Back to I Want Revenge's most recent effort though, take note that the other horse who beat him that day was Papa Clem, who is heading to the Louisiana Derby next weekend as one of the favorites. Papa Clem was coming into the Bob Lewis off a maiden win over Mayor Marv, who returned to win next time out, then shipped out of town to win the Turf Paradise Derby. Mayor Marv had also run second to The Pamplemousse back at Hollywood Park. So as you can see, I Want Revenge has been keeping nothing but top-class company for quite a while now, and has not been disgraced by any means. Figures to offer solid value here vs. horses with lesser credentials. Dirt is obviously an unknown factor, but that will only help the price.

Keith - TripleDeadHeat said...

Hey DC,

That's a great quote from Talamo...I'm hoping we'll see Haynesfield v a hard charging Revenge in the stretch.

This race makes a new star today.



DiscreetPicks said...

Sharp win by I Want Revenge @ $8.30

Watch out for Papa Clem next weekend...

Anonymous said...

You get extra credit for the blonde that was in the winners circle.

Anonymous said...

I threw a few buck on IWR at 56-1 in Future Pool #1, won't be seeing that price anytime soon ;-)

Sooner or later one of these CAL horse was going to explode switching to real dirt. How many others are out there not reaching their full potential? I suspect you will be seeing quite a few shipping East in the next few weeks.

Anonymous said...

I posted this as anon 746 on March 1st, did not take long for it to happen.

"In fact I predict it will not be long before some 50-1 shot, who has been picking up checks out west, explodes to win the Derby and proves to be a super horse that wasted its entire two and early three year old seasons racing on a surface it hates."

IWR was 56-1 in the Futures pool, so while it did not happen in the Derby itself, this is a prime example of synthetic form being meaningless.