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Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Keep It To Ourselves

Two winners on Sunday for trainer Gary Gullo, now an outstanding 12 for 34 (35%) at the Belmont meeting, and 8-1-2 with his last 16. This barn has been sharp all year, batting .250 for 2009. I remember Gullo as a perennial single digit guy (he's 11% overall for the last five years), but he's really turned things around. Fuhrever Dancing ($8.20) was a bit of an overlay I thought; while Five Demon Bag returned $18.80 in the sixth. Gullo could be a guy with whom we can get some value at Saratoga, since his name isn't Pletcher, Mott, McLaughlin, Levine, or McGaughey (said by some smart guys I know to be the most overbet trainer of all). We all know how the bettors up there can get carried away when certain trainers have a hot horse, and it could be worth keeping an eye on guys like Gullo, and other live under-the-radar barns like Rodrigo Ubillo and, though a bit better known, our buddy George Weaver.

I was betting from our little slice of backyard paradise in Queens on Sunday, and noticed that Weaver had a horse running at Monmouth; Find the Wire in the 6th. There were around five minutes to post time, he was 4-1 with top-heavy action in the win pool. I've been following Weaver's recent success at Belmont, but he's also 11-4-2-1, 36%, down the shore. I was thinking that I could use my Twitter account to alert my thousands of followers.

Of course, I have neither, but perhaps someone did because the horse got pounded in the last two minutes and settled at 8-5 before settling for second! These days, even at a medium-size track like Monmouth, the win pool is small enough so that the win odds usually mean little until the last couple of minutes, if not seconds.

Anyway, as was discussed in this recent comment thread and a previous post, no self-respecting horseplayer is going to tweet a revelation for potential life-changing score. As Lou Barlow sings on Imagination Blind from the new Dinosaur Jr. album, We wanna hold the key and keep it to ourselves.


Patrick J Patten said...

I will tell you I used Twitter pre-race to tout a Definite winner.

i think the horse went off at 5/2 maybe, it was Dinner with DC

DiscreetPicks said...

Another somewhat-obscure trainer that bears watching is Thomas Bush. He simply excels in state-bred 2yo races. He won another one today; at least his second longshot firster at the current meet that i know of (the other being So N So). I believe he's done better at Belmont than Saratoga (last year anyway), but still someone to keep a definite eye on in those state-bred 2yo events.