Belmont Day

In the second, Katlyn Ann (9-2) cuts back to six furlongs for the capable John Hertler. This barn is winless at this meeting in 24 tries, but has been getting close of late with a couple of seconds and a close third with his last five starters, and seems about due and poised for a winner. This daughter of Harlan's Holiday has been a bit of a money burner, but came alive two back at 13-1 with a close second when switched to this surface and distance. She could have been closer to the pace that day if not for some traffic on the backstretch, and last out, she showed very good speed (rated v. fast early by Moss) in a mile event. Cuts back here just eight days later, and could control what looks like a paceless race with Cornelio from the outside post. Soo's Purse (6-1) closed wide to finish just behind the top pick when also making her first Belmont start. Cuts back from seven furlongs and Coa returns. Tapaline (9-5) gets blinkers for Kimmel; looms one to beat but has disappointed before.

In the 4th, Top It (15-1) returns off a layoff for the sharp David Cannizzo barn; three winners and four solid seconds from 10 runners at this meet. This lightly-raced five-year old son of Pulpit closed well from far back after a slow start for second in his last start, at slightly shorter at Saratoga, against what seemed like a good field at the time. That has not been borne out by subsequent results of winner Mythical Pegasus and third place BZ Warrior. But this horse has run well fresh before, and lands in a race filled with speed. Seems worth a shot at generous odds. Zio Tony (4-1) was impressive graduating and gets blinkers for Hushion, who has won with that equipment change five times in a row. Tahitian Warrior (5-2) is back after a fruitless trip to Dubai; Trappe Shot (2-1) trounced Florida-breds at GP.

In the 12th, Bold Vindication (6-1) goes out for the suddenly hot Gary Sciacca. We've seen this before; a trainer breaks out of a winning streak and that win is promptly followed by more. This barn was 0 for its first 28 at the meeting, but broke out with Piazza Di Spagna ($36) on Thursday, and followed that up with Loyal Shadow ($24.60) yesterday. Hmmm, perhaps we're a race late to the party....but this four-year old gelded son of the late Vindication won at this same level and distance two back when moved up confidently to race out of conditions off the claim. His 4th place effort in his last was fine in a slow-paced sprint; stretches back out and Prado returns.

Well? You can go anywhere to get picks on the stakes races....what can I say, I prefer handicapping and betting on the "regular" races, OK? But in the 11th, the Belmont Stakes, Fly Down (9-2) just seems ready to explode here for Zito after his impressive runaway in the Dwyer. I love the way he came home in progressively faster splits of 24.97, 24.55, and a sharp 12.18 second final furlong. He's had only one bad effort, and he had good reason to bounce in the Louisiana Derby after a tough win over the talented First Dude coming off nearly three months off. Sharp works; trainer and jockey know the drill, and the fact that he's relatively lightly-raced should serve him well.

Ice Box (3-1) will, in my opinion, go off significantly lower than his morning line, and is therefore a logical bet-against for me considering that he failed to win a Kentucky Derby that I thought was absolutely putrid. That's my ultimate reason for betting against him, though I admit I got it from someone else. Yeah yeah, excuses, excuses, I know. But he had a horrifically slow pace to close in to, which made up for a lot of the bad luck he encountered. Pedigree is intimidating with his being out of a stakes winner at a mile and a half who is, in turn, by a Belmont winner. And his running style has actually been rather successful in recent Belmonts despite what we might hear. Strictly the one to beat, but I'll try to do so (unless, perhaps, if he's actually 3-1 and depending on the accumulated effects of bourbon so late in the long afternoon). Stay Put (20-1) always puts in a late run, and perhaps could pick up some pieces with a patient ride. Good luck everyone, and have a great day.