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Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Belmont Wednesday

The 6th is an interesting six horse maiden special on the grass at a mile and a quarter (weather permitting). Cheyenne Nation (9-5) is the morning line favorite for slumping trainer Chad Brown, 0 for his last 24 at Belmont, 1 for 35 overall. Many of those have come at short prices too; ten of them at Belmont went off at less than 3-1. This son of Gulch has closed OK at shorter distances, and there's some pedigree power for the distance, his dam being a half sister to the Man O' War winner Defensive Play. But he looks like enough of a plodder to stand against as the favorite especially given the recent travails of his trainer.

Antrim Shield (2-1) is the key here; you gotta figure that trainer Christophe Clement has some good reasons to pick this spot for this horse's debut. This is a three-year old son of Giant's Causeway, out of the G1 winner Voodoo Dancer, who sold for a million bucks at auction as a yearling in Sept 2008. The last time this barn started debuted a horse on the turf at ten furlongs was Armstrong Mill, who won that race, here at Belmont, last May; and the barn is a solid 19% over the last two years with all first-timers on the grass. The trainer recently emerged from an 0 for 23 slump at Belmont with a couple of winners including Winchester in the Manhattan.

With those two likely to take the bulk of the money (and I'd be wary of Antrim Shield if he doesn't), could be some good value on Macedonian (4-1), for the red hot Mott stable - 6-2-0 with his last ten starters! This son of Pulpit, out of the mile and a quarter Flower Bowl winner Northern Emerald, is actually cutting back from 11 furlongs. In that race, he dropped back out of the picture on the final turn after being squeezed a bit, and re-rallied quite nicely for 4th as the field came home quickly after a dawdling pace, getting his final furlong in a field-best 11.25 seconds. The winner, El Fuego, moved up to allowance company and won with a 91 Beyer for Clement. Switches to the stable's main man Desormeaux here.


onecalicocat said...

I bet a few races every day after getting home from work.
I went with (your mention of) Macedonian and he gave a great effort after leaping in the air at the start and falling lengths behind. What I liked about him was that he could handle the distance. I collected on the place so it was sort of a wash. Next time out he will be one to watch.

I find most TVG hosts (really) annoying except for Rich Perloff, who you can actually learn from. I especially like him on Mondays and Tuesdays when he has the time to analyze races at DelPark and Philly.
I turn the sound down for Matt, Todd, Mr. B and especially The Sarge -- they all talk too much and they don't relate to the casual racing fan.

Anonymous said...

Matt Caruthers is an absolute must use. He tosses every logical favorite for some cheap speed, and picks every vulnerable fav to bet. Fade him and win. Easy game.


steve in nc said...

Setting the standard for annoying is Jason Blewitt on the NYRA replay show. That little yellow jump-ahead 30 second button on the DVR remote is a godsend.