If We Must, We Must....

This is the third year in a row that the Wood Memorial winner didn't make it to the Derby due to injury; and this year it was the hat trick, with the top three finishers, Toby's Corner, Arthur's Tale, and Uncle Schmo, all faltering due to various reasons. Grimmer still, it's the third consecutive year that the probable or, this year, possible Derby favorite ran in the Wood and then didn't make it to Churchill. Not a good thing for NY's big Derby prep, which hasn't produced a winner since Monarchos in 2001, and which has produced Derby disappointments such as Bob and John, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Bellamy Road, and Tapit.

Well, I guess I have to declare who I like. I suppose that it's required to go on the record, so then I can write about how my picks suck. (Drape is likely to extend his streak with his flailing stab of Animal Kingdom.)

I'd actually like to keep my options open, and be free to change my mind, inspired perhaps by an unexpected overlay, an incisive insight by Gary Stevens (or maybe even Mike Battaglia?), or simply a last-minute hunch.

However, if we must (though I reserve the right, in this specific case, to change my mind without sending any tweets).... Archarcharch (12-1) drew the dreaded rail, but I'm sticking with him as the top selection (albeit in large part because I simply don't like anyone else in the field [at least at the anticipated odds] enough to change my mind).

I read somewhere, and I don't feel like looking for it right now, that the one post has actually produced 12 winners, tied for the most in Derby history. However, here in the era of 20 horse fields, it hasn't produced a winner since Winning Colors...and she simply outbroke the field and wired the field. With Archarcharch likely to attempt to reproduce his deep close in the Arkansas Derby, jockey Jon Court might want to take a look at the way Ferdinand won from the rail in 1986.



Just love the way this colt has improved in his four starts this year, even, Beyer-wise, in the Rebel after he was kicked repeatedly by the horse in the adjoining stall. He's reportedly made great strides in his training at Churchill, and I can't help but feel that this colt is coming on, and coming up to a big effort. Excellent tactical speed could help him avoid trouble, but he showed the ability to close from a ways back in the Arkansas Derby, blowing by the leaders in the stretch after being just about widest of all while gaining ground on the far turn. He's a son of Arch, from the Roberto sire line, out of a mare by the Irish champion Woodman. Solid 1.73 dosage number, and a number of distance stakes winners on his distaff side. Will need some luck, but so does everyone else.

Midnight Interlude (10-1) really was quite impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, very wide on the first turn, and having to stop and shift out a path in the stretch. Don't know what he beat, but do know he ain't running against all that much here either. A couple of bullet works over the track; despite that, a mediocre assessment by the Form's Mike Welsch, but that could be too much information in this case. Seems to be getting ignored by the pundits, which I consider a good thing. Tactical speed and a good closing kick could put him in the mix.

Santiva (30-1) gets a pass for his disappointing Blue Grass, which came after he impressively built on his two-year old year with a bang-up, and very wide, second in the Risen Star. Son of Giant's Causeway has nice Tomlinson and dosage numbers which perhaps are more important than the sprint names we see on his distaff side. Another with the tactical speed to stay close and out of trouble.

I see that Beyer likes Shackleford (12-1) to win the whole thing. I dunno, I can't imagine him staying ten furlongs, even if he's trained well since the Florida Derby as reported. He did indeed show some real grit hanging on after being kept busy defending his lead throughout the race. Could see him hanging on for a share but would be pretty shocked if he takes the big prize given the way he tired at Gulfstream.

I discussed Soldat (12-1) in the last post, and El Angelo wrote in to report that he'd read where McLaughlin said that he hated getting dirt kicked in his face in the Florida Derby. That would explain why he's successfully rated on the grass, but has only been successful on the lead on dirt. That could definitely be a problem in this race. So, I've soured a bit on this colt. On the other hand, maybe the dirt in the face served as a learning experience, and El Angelo will have talked me off a live horse.

Nehro (6-1) has declined in stature for me, in part because of his draw in post 19, and additionally because everyone else seemed to like him. Now, with a final workout which was reportedly lackluster (and a lack of activity since, according to Welsch), he seems to have lost some buzz. Still, this one-time winner closed like gangbusters in his close second place finishes in the La. and Ark. Derbys. Worth taking a peek at the board to see if he's offered at significantly higher odds than his morning line. Otherwise, I'll pass.

Dialed In (9-2), as I've written before, is a nice young colt who is eligible to improve; but needs everything to fall his way, and is therefore an awful favorite here.

Brilliant Speed (30-1) is picking up some attention based on how good he's reportedly looked training over the dirt track. Has shown the kind of improvement we love to see; and, being a son of Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare, certainly has license to run well on dirt. And maybe his two dirt races were bad because they were sprints. Still, the history thus far of Poly horses in this race compels me to disregard him, as well as Animal Kingdom, and Twinspired.

Pants On Fire (20-1) is one of the speed horses who we're all just assuming (well, me, anyway) will race each other into submission and set it up for one of the closers, be it midpack or deep. But this horse perhaps deserves a closer look based on his game Louisiana Derby win over Nehro, who will be sent off at far lower odds.

I still don't like Mucho Macho Man (12-1) at all.