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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Wednesday Notes

- The weather is horrible here, and I do abhor handicapping for sloppy tracks as you probably know by now if you've been hanging out here for awhile. As I've said before, if everything else was equal, I'd be in favor of synthetic tracks just for the main tracks always being fast. The weather has been bad in Baltimore too, though it's supposed to clear up by Saturday. And who knows....given the situation in Maryland, the Preakness might some day be run elsewhere, on a synthetic track; it's not out of the question. If more horses like Animal Kingdom win the Derby, then it wouldn't even seem all that radical.

Anyway, given the probability of slop at Belmont on Wednesday, I'll just briefly mention a couple of horses scheduled to run in the 8th. Precious Soul (3-1) became the first debut winner for Allen Jerkens in over three years when she won, at a well-bet 7-2, at Gulfstream in March. She's a half-sister, by Distorted Humor, to Society Selection (Coronado's Quest), who won three G1's for The Chief back in the early aughts. Always skeptical of horses facing winners for the first time, but this filly has four straight bullet works, and would surely be no surprise. A Story of Revenge (7-2) is a half-sister, by Tale of the Cat, to I Want Revenge (who may run in Thursday's feature should the race be moved to the main track). It's her first start since winning her debut last fall at Monmouth, against a field that has turned out to be pretty decent. Of all the great features of Formulator, perhaps my favorite is the one that allows you to see the complete past performance lines for all of the horses in a subject horse's last five races. In a case like this, when the horse's last race occurred some time ago, you can see how the competition has developed since then, and it's often quite interesting to see, especially in two-year old races where you can see the hopes and dreams for once-promising horses either attained or deflated. In A Story of Revenge's debut, third place finisher Hot Summer, who debuted at 2-1 that day, won the G3 Comely last month. But 6th place finisher Lemon Loaf, who debuted at 7-2 for Asmussen, has yet to win, and was claimed for 30K. And so it goes.

- Hunch bets for Wednesday, May 18:

Yeah Right 5th at Delaware
Visual Arrest 2nd at Indiana Downs
Straight Shooter 2nd at Evangeline Downs
The Amateur 2nd at Presque Isle Downs
Light Sleeper 5th at Arlington Park