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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Saratoga Wednesday

The first race is a conditioned 25K claimer for fillies and mares, 3 yo and up, who have never won three races, OR three-year olds, OR which have not won a race since January 25. Of the nine horses entered, eight are eligible because they haven't won three races. Pyramist (9-2) is eligible because she's been away from the races since October, and thus qualifies on the final condition. Nine-year old daughter of Pyramid Peak has won 21 career races, five more than the rest of the field combined. She's also run faster and, arguably, against clearly better horses than any of the others; and she goes for trainer Peter Walder, hitting at 40% (4 for 10) with 180+ day layoff horses.

The way I see it, the main question is whether she's sharp enough off a layoff of this length, her longest since 2006. (Incredibly, she hasn't been off from the races for more than two months at any time since then.) There's also a matter of the nine furlong distance, as she's never been over a mile and a sixteenth. However, only one of the other horses has ever been that far, so I'm not as concerned about that. Not saying she's a lock; besides the questions raised above, there are a couple of sharp fillies in Celebrity Sighting (3-1) and Rose's Turn (7-2). But I do think that one could do far worse in this game than take that 9-2 morning line on a horse with this kind of a class edge on its opponents. (Though I do suspect that we will not see that price at post time.)

In the third, strictly an informational mention of Hard Nosed (6-1), making his debut for Zito. He's from the first crop of Hard Spun, from that fabulous three-year old class of 2007, standing at Darley for $30,000. Hard Spun already has six winners, from 20 starters, and stands #3 on the rookie sire earnings list, thanks in part to Red Duke, a stakes winner in the UK. Not surprising to see him off to a good start, as dominant he himself was at age two. Compare his quick start with that of his one-time rival, and now studmate, Street Sense, who stands at Darley for 40k. The Derby winner, who wasn't bad at age two himself, has had only three horses even make it to the starting gate, and is looking for his first winner.

1 Comment:

stalusk said...

He's chugging along nicely Hard Spun. Red Duke ran very well at Goodwood on Wednesday also.