Here Comes Irene on the Far Outside...

It's no joke, of course. Be safe, everyone.

Was hoping to get to handicapping today's card last night, but the Head Chef's dear friend Ilene came over, and that was the end of that! As for this morning and today, we'll be making necessary preparations for the storm. This baby is basically headed straight for us, give or take 25 miles or so. The latest from the National Hurricane Center tells of a weakened Irene that has "lost some organization this morning." That's good, but it's still a hurricane, and we have stuff in the backyard to secure, and things to move off the basement floor. We're not in one of the flooding zones subject to evacuation, but some seepage into the basement seems quite likely based on past experience.

Quickly, on the Travers, not crazy about it as a betting race, but Coil (3-1) seems the most likely winner in my opinion. Yeah, I know people are pointing out that the track at Monmouth on Haskell day featured a dead rail and favored closers, and even this track bias skeptic would have to say that that view may be supported by the race charts. But I think that may be too much information in this case. In his first race on dirt, and with a poor start leaving him far behind his usual stalking position, this son of the great Point Given nonetheless conceded ample ground loss on the final turn and blew by, and then held off, a game Shackleford (9-2), a way-classy and still improving colt who has really earned my respect, even if I think today's distance is beyond is best capabilities. Coil had some reported ups and downs in his training for the Travers, but his half mile blowout on Tuesday should dispel any doubts about his fitness. Don't see any reason why he shouldn't go on for the extra furlong today (despite a curiously low Tomlinson for the distance.....his dosage index is 1.18, and his pedigree is solid). I think he's a bargain if he's paying a penny more than Stay Thirsty (5-2), who benefited from an ideal trip against a soft Jim Dandy field.

Ruler on Ice (6-1) puts in a solid effort every time. But if you throw out his effort in the Belmont, as I'm wont to do with winners of that race (sometimes at my own peril) at a freak distance that virtually none of today's thoroughbreds are bred to run (and especially with the sloppy conditions in this year's race), he's never run higher than a 92 Beyer. He's said to have closed on a dead rail in the Haskell, but I just don't believe he's fast or good enough for the Haskell top two. JW Blue (20-1) has a nice pattern of improvement against weaker out-of-town; no real surprise if he picks up a piece here. Raison d'Etat (10-1) and Malibu Glow (20-1) are both surely eligible for improvement.

Time to get to work here. Planning to get to the races at some point later before the dish blows off; check out my Twitter feed if you're so inclined. Again, be safe!!!! Good luck and have a great day.