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Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Travelin Nowhere

The Toddster's consecutive day streak went crashing down in flames on Monday, with Counterparty out of the money at 1-5, and Travelin Man delivering an absolute non-performance in the Amsterdam, checking in 16 lengths behind.....the second-the-last finisher, To Honor And Serve (Bernardini), who seems to have lost interest in the game at the age of three. (Luckily for him, his two Grade 2 wins as a juvenile and his fashionable sire are plenty enough to earn him a stud career.) Don't know what the problem was with Pletcher's colt; who knows, if the race was on national TV, maybe John Velasquez would have told Donna Brothers-Barton that his horse wasn't warming up that well.

The Amsterdam was the second graded stakes in the last two days to be won by the longest shot in the field, contributing to a two-day Pick Six carryover of over $317,000 (oops). On Sunday, Ask the Moon bottomed out an absolutely ragged Grade 1 field in the Ruffian, and actually widened her lead even as she zigzagged home in a languorous 14.02 seconds, final three furlongs in 39.62. Ugh. And for that she earned a 98 Beyer, 11 points higher than she'd ever run, gimme a break.

The Amsterdam turned into a clinic on the concept of races falling apart, as Caleb's Posse ($27.60) was the only one running after the rest of the field stopped in the last furlong. He came home in 30.09 seconds for the final furlong and a half; that's a pretty steady pace, but surely he'd slowed down markedly from the 22.54 second quarter he ran to the half. Classic case of a horse slowing down less than the rest of the field, and he drew off to win by four. Nice job by jp picking this one, especially the bit about his sire Posse having debuted in sizzling fashion over the track; and a good point about him probably preferring one turn. Still, tough for me to come up with this one cutting back from so many races around two. And his Beyer of 105 is 13 points higher than his previous best.

These two horses are gonna take a lot of money in their next start - especially Caleb's Posse, who'll get bet off the board with that number assuming he ships back out of town. May pay to follow and bet against should they be facing potentially different pace scenarios than they benefited from here.


Jackie said...

2 day carryover? It was hit and paid $78k yesterday. There hasn't been a two day carryover all meet.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Alan. I'm not sure the fact that his sire liked the track had much to do with him as a good play, but I just remember that stupid commercial NY Channel 71 used to play ad nauseum. The rest of the field was very suspect and I love that cut-back angle from a route to 6.5 to 7f. Plus, if you look at Caleb's Posse, he was kind of underappreciated, running against decent graded company and winning his fair share of races. I only wish I bet more on him, but a win is a win. -jp

Anonymous said...

btw, I was at Saratoga the day Posse was supposed to debut. The grandstand was abuzz and he was bet down to 3-5 or so. And then he scratched a few minutes before post. His subsequent debut took place after that. -jp

Anonymous said...

It is Donna Barton-Brothers, not Brothers-Barton.

What was appalling as the Life At Ten fiasco was the Rachel Alexandra stake on Monday. Three horses were pulled up. Wayne Lukas should be grilled as much as John Veitch has been for allowing his horses to run in spots in which they have no shot.