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Monday, January 30, 2012

Hat Trick for Toddster

Three winners for Pletcher on Sunday at Gulfstream, giving him a ridiculous total of 30 on the meeting, from 84 starters (36%). We've seen the Toddster overwhelm his rivals on sheer volume at Saratoga; and though he does lead this meet in starters, it's not by itself nearly as much to explain his 17 win edge over runner up Chad Brown (55 starters). The only guy that tops his win percentage is Peter Walder, batting an impressive .400 with eight winners from just 20 starters.

Not like anyone is necessarily getting rich by following him though, other than his owners of course. His ROI on a $2 bet is $2.29; only three of his winners have paid out more than 4-1, and 12 have gone off at even money or less.

Each of Pletcher's three winners on Sunday may have benefited from track conditions; each one having stellar Tomlinson numbers of 410 or higher for mud. Holy Bull winner Algorithms ($7) also no doubt benefited from an ideal trip. Juvenile winner Hansen stumbled badly at the start before rushing up to the lead; and after getting to the first quarter in a modest 23.64, he and Ramon Dominguez blazed the second one in 22.03. I know the internal fraction at Gulfstream can be screwy (check out the first race at the distance that day); but very few horses are going to successfully stretch out off fractions like that, no matter where they are. Not Hansen on this day to be sure; though all in all, not a bad effort in his first start since the BC. For Algorithms, a typical early-season effort by a three-year old which says absolutely nothing about his distance prospects down the road, in a race that went the first half mile in 45.67, and the second one in 50.50. He seems just as likely to emulate his half-brother Keyed Entry as anyone else. Algorithms earned a Beyer of 98, for whatever that's worth.

Broadway's Alibi ($4.40) bottomed out the Forward Gal field with a blazing first half of 44.94, and drew away like Mitt Romney down there in Florida to win by nearly 17. Unlike the Mittster though, this daughter of Vindication was facing some worthy-looking competition, including three stakes winners, in her first stakes try. She's out of Broadway Gold, a stakes winning Seeking the Gold mare who's a half-sister to the Holy Bull/Florida Derby winner Dialed In. Broadway's Alibi earned a Beyer of 100.

Allowance winner El Padrino ($7.20) may have done the most to indicate that he's eligible to improve as the distances increase, overcoming a tight spot to win around two turns in his first start since his third in the Remsen last fall. This son of Pulpit, with inbreeding to Mr. Prospector and Secretariat (and his dam is inbred to Blushing Groom), is out of a Giant's Causeway mare. His second dam is the Ashland winner Chic Shirine, and his third dam is Too Chic, the dam of G1 winner Queena (the dam of G1 winner Brahms). El Padrino also earned a Beyer of 100.


jk said...

Alan, nice twitter review of Luck! I still plan to check it out but my expectations have been adjusted.

Figless said...

Modest Byers for a track that the last few years has been in the 110's for the 3yo preps.

Slopfest muddies up the meaning even more.

Anonymous said...

Um, to find a better Beyer fig in the Holy Bull, you have to go back to Second of June in 2004 - which had a different track configuration and was at a different distance.

The only GP races where 3yo horses put up "110s" are the occasional sprint. As far as I can remember, the only recent 3yo race of more than 7F that in that range was Quality Road's 113 in the Florida Derby (a horse that by some measures, ran the fastest race in history in the Donn).

Even Esky's FOY and Big Brown's Florida Derby (romps by great horses) were only 106s.