Notes - May 19

- Patrick at Pulling Hair gripes about all the writers coming out against Barbaro. But Paul Moran of Newsday certainly ain’t one of them.

[The Derby] established him as genuinely top class and perhaps the best 3-year-old to race in this country the last quarter century.[Editor's Note - !!] Has trained since the Derby as though he will run through a wall. This race may look a good deal like the Derby. Value at 4-5, but that may be wishful thinking. On to Belmont. [Newsday]

- Ed Fountaine of the NY Post has some economical suggestions for trying to make some money even if you like the favorite...and though he specifically fancies Bernardini, you can substitute the longshot of your choice.

A $1 trifecta wheel using Barbaro on top, with Bernardini second, and hitting the "all" button in third costs $7. For another $7, you can key Barbaro, with all for second, with Bernardini third.

A $1 superfecta wheel keying Barbaro on top and Bernardini second, with all third, with all fourth, will set you back $42. Not much to risk for a boxcar payoff, and if Brother Derek or Sweetnorthernsaint, or both, finishes out of the money, the tote board will explode. [NY Post]

- I can’t believe this story coming out of the Meadowlands. First it was leading trainer Seldon Ledford and his son Eric who were banned for over 10 years for use of the performance-enhancing drug arasnerp. Now, the current leading trainer, Ken Rucker, has been notified that his entries will no longer be accepted as of May 24 due to a positive test for erythropoietin, a similar medication, in one of his horses. The Meadowlands had made Rucker sign a specific agreement regarding the substance due to some prior violations.

"In November of 2005, Mr. Rucker had a series of positive tests - five or six in a one-week time frame - in Chicago, for a class four medication (a less potent form of performance-enhancing drug.....We at the Meadowlands expressed concern to him about these positives and we indicated to him that we would feel more comfortable with him racing here if he signed an agreement." [NY Daily News]

Rucker denied any knowledge of the drug and stated the obvious when he said "This is not a time to start experimenting with [erythropoietin]."

I'll tell you man, nothing will drive bettors away faster than the notion that the participants are cheating. Thinking back to the demise of harness racing in the NYC area, the accepted explanations were the advent of OTB and the Meadowlands. But around the same time and possibly prior to that, I recall that it was a much-publicized scandal involving top drivers that started the ball rolling the wrong way. That scandal involved race-fixing, as the drivers allegedly conspired to keep two specific horses out of the top four in superfecta races. (And indeed, the wager was discontinued and it was many years before the superfecta resurfaced in New York State.) These incidents at the Big M may not be a conspiracy, but to see two different trainers both suspended for the same violation within a couple of months, and while each led the trainer standings, can certainly make it seem like one. And how long before the first similar positive pops up in a thoroughbred?

Preakness - Final Thoughts and Picks

- Like Now (Jules) is more than a one-dimensional speed horse. He’s shown the ability to throttle down his speed and conserve energy for the latter stages of races. He wasn’t taken seriously in the Gotham, was allowed to set a slow pace, and finished up in 30 4/5 for the last 2 ½ furlongs. In the Lexington, Like Now was engaged every step of the way, exchanged bumps in the stretch, but still showed grit to hang on for second behind the very highly-regarded Showing Up. He has a freshness advantage over the Derby horses, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin feels that he’s on the upswing. “He has just improved and improved. Everything is there. He's ready and raring to go." [Pittsburghlive.com] Many feel he’s not up to the task of winning the Preakness, including Gary Stevens, who told the Washington Post that “he's in a different league. I don't think he has a chance." I don’t totally disagree with that assessment, but I do think he’s going to give anyone who tries to pass him, including Brother Derek, enough of a fight to be a big factor in this race.

I’ve had a difficult time getting a handle on Brother Derek (Benchmark). He’s supposed to be an early speed type, but he’s never shown blazing early speed, at least not in the first half miles. Running on the fast California tracks, he’s set or tracked some relatively dawdling paces; his strength has been his persistence – his ability to crank out 24 second or so quarters throughout. We saw that in the Derby when he rallied for 4th despite being taken completely out of his comfort zone. Brother Derek galloped over the Pimlico track yesterday and Dan Hendricks said that “he handled [it] just fine, like he's handled every other track he's been on.” [Thoroughbred Times] I believe that he’ll be tracking Like Now around the first turn, and that he’ll have his hands full with that rival down the backstretch. He should have the lead turning for home, but will he have enough left?

The bettors in the Philly area can’t wait to get their money down on Barbaro (Dynaformer). Eager beavers showed up yesterday at the Brandywine Turf Club in Concordville, but they had to be turned away. He’s even money in the morning line, but will likely be lower than that come post time. There’s been a lot of talk about the two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness, but this was the plan all along, to have a fresh horse for the Triple Crown. As Andy Beyer points out, Barbaro may be sharper than ever after the short rest. [Washington Post] This is a big strong horse and a magnificent physical specimen, and my personal opinion is that those that are hoping he will bounce will be sorely disappointed.

Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint) is the one I’m going to stand against in order to try and create some kind of value in the exotics. His wins have come against minor competition, and in the Illinois Derby, which was an impressive performance no doubt, especially with his strong closing furlong of 12 1/5. But he couldn’t possibly have had an easier trip that day, stalking those slow fractions before drawing away in the stretch against second stringers (at best). As in the Derby, the pace scenario works against him. He won’t have the lead, and we’ve seen no indication that he can pass horses in the stretch. And Dave Litfin in the Form does a good job putting his middle move up the rail in the Derby into better perspective.

Notably, that slow second half [50.95 seconds] allowed Brother Derek to stay within range of the first flight despite racing wide, and meant Sweetnorthernsaint's middle move was not the herculean effort it first appeared.

Let the late money pour in; I’m standing against him this time.

Bernardini (AP Indy) is a wild card, making just his 4th lifetime start and his first around two turns. He has tons to prove, especially if you consider that his win in the Withers was accomplished against just three others of questionable quality; and trainer Tom Albertrani seems realistic about his chances when he says: "Even if he runs a credible race, we'll be pleased." [USA Today] Still, he could add some juice to the pace as thereby play a role in the outcome.

On first glance, Diabolical seems to have a pure sprinting pedigree, being by Artax out of a Dayjur mare. But he actually has a fair amount of stamina in his pedigree – his second dam is the Roberto mare Wings of Grace, a multiple graded turf stakes winner, he’s inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, and has a dosage index of 2.25. He’s also shown some high speed in the past, leading the Nashua last year (eventually won by Bluegrass Cat) through six furlongs in 1:09 2/5. Nice colt for Steve Klesaris, and though I don’t expect that he’ll finish in the money, he’s another one that could contribute to the pace.

My mom bet on Platinum Couple (Tale of the Cat), because she knows someone whose brother-in-law is trainer Joe Lostritto’s son Glenn. Or something like that. No, I didn’t try to talk her out of it. Lostritto is a guy who’s been around; he keeps his horses on his farm on Long Island, and is a one man breeding/training/owning show. He always shows a low win percentage, but Joe Drape takes a closer look in the NY Times today, and he's a pretty interesting and not so unsuccessful story.

Lostritto persevered and prospered in the rough-and-tumble waste management business, survived a life-threatening aneurysm in 1991 and, as an accidental horseman, became proficient enough to train the horses that he breeds in New York into money makers.

Last year, he sent out 121 starters and finished in the money 26 percent of the time for purse earnings of more than $467,000.

"For all my dad's been through, just for him to put the saddle on that horse on Saturday will be one of my happiest days," his son Glenn said.

So I’ll stick him into the third spot just because it’s a nice story, and because my mom will be happy.

Greeley’s Legacy (Mr. Greeley) has little speed, and not all that much more of a closing kick; but he’s clearly the best of the longshot plodding types. The presence of Hemingway’s Key (Notebook) here is inexplicable, so he doesn't even get bold type.

Not much of a betting race for me. I’ll go easy and use Barbaro on top of some triples with Like Now and Brother Derek, and throw in some others – Bernardini, Greeley’s Legacy and Platinum Couple in for third.

- Before you go to the windows, I thought it might be instructive to take a look at my record on this blog in Triple Crown races. Last year I picked Bellamy Road to dominate the Derby (7th); Closing Argument in the Preakness (said I: If he continues to improve he could blow them away) (9th, and has never run again), and (gulp) Chekov in the Belmont. And then I started off this year with Bob and John in the Derby (17th). Just thought you’d like to know. There’s full disclosure for you.

Friday Morning Notes - May 19

- Racketeer (Awesome Again) was seemingly on the Derby trail after his good 4th in the San Felipe to AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Bob and John.... (Gee, I guess maybe the California crew isn’t that great this year, though Brother Derek will have a chance to change that on Saturday.) A distant sixth in the Illinois Derby ended any Derby hopes, if owner Frank Stronach ever had any intention of supplementing him.

At Belmont on Thursday, he made his turf debut for Frankel and was bet down to 8-5 favoritism. Awesome Again is a 12% turf sire according to the Form, but Racketeer has a fairly low Tomlinson of 258, and nothing in the immediately family jumps out and says ‘turf.’ Again, and even if he had a high Tomlinson and good grass breeding, this is one of the biggest overbet situations one can find at the track, when a horse that has shown some class on the dirt tries the grass. I’m red-boarding here, but winner Spider Power (Royal Applause) looks like a nice price at $15.80, for the sharp Kiaran McLaughlin.

Silvestris (Forest Wildcat) returned to form in the feature. She had won the Ruthless early this year, but she pushed the bridgejumpers over the rail when she was 4th in the Dearly Precious at 1-2. I’m sure they were all thrilled to see her win this one by four lengths at 3-2.

If there ever was a daily double of worst named race winners, it was in the 4th and 5th races. New York-bred Gonzo Bonzo Beans (Prospect Bay) shipped in from Pimlico and beat four horses, including the inexplicable 4-5 favorite Abbyroar. Nice ship-in for trainer Timothy Salzman. There are no spots in Maryland in which to face four NY-breds for a $41,000 purse, that’s for sure. And the 5th was taken by Ohbeegeewhyen (Doc’s Leader). This horse ran here last May in her first race since the previous November and just missed at 6-1. Now, here she was again in her first race since last November, but was allowed to go off at 7-2 behind 6-5 favorite Deed. The latter had also last raced in November, and had shown no similar penchant for running well fresh. However, her trainer Christophe Clement does, while the winner’s trainer Gary Sciacca has struggled of late, and that probably helped to steer the bettors to the wrong horse.

And I had a winner today, it’s true. The ninth was a wide-open looking turf race, and I used Spartan Valor ($20.60) on top strictly as a price play. I won’t complain too much that the 7-5 favorite got second by a nose and that the exacta returned just $88. Or that I was gonna bet the triple, but lack of confidence held me back, and I woulda had it for $283.50. No, I’m not complaining. Too much. Nice just to get back on the board. And besides, how often do you see your selection be 8th after three quarters in 1:15 2/5, but first under the wire? He’s another offspring of More Than Ready who’s just loving the grass.

And oh yeah, Barclay Tagg was oh-for-two, including a last place finish with 8-5 Megatrend in the 3rd.

Blowout for Barbaro

- As if to rebuff his seemingly increasing number of skeptics, Barbaro capped a one mile gallop with a quarter mile blowout down the stretch. Haskin got him in 24 1/5 seconds.

[Assistant trainer Peter] Brette termed the workout "super" and said it is customary for the colt to gallop strongly before a "blow out" prior to a race. [Bloodhorse]

It was actually reported by Gary Stevens on the Derby telecast that the horse practically worked out on the morning of that race too. Our friends at Tim Woolley Racing report that he looked great picking grass an hour later as if nothing had happened.

Meanwhile, Jessica over at Railbird compiles some of the those nay-sayers who feel that, in the words of Bill Finley, he’s a 'bet against' on Saturday. In addition to the ‘bounce theory,’ Finley postulates that perhaps He’s a One-Race Wonder

Prior to the Derby, Barbaro ran just twice on the dirt and, though he won both times, he wasn't exactly dominating. He was more workmanlike in both the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby and looked nothing like the horse who destroyed the field in the Derby. In the Florida Derby, he had to work hard to get past Sharp Humor, who ran 19th in the Derby and was beaten 33 1/4 lengths. Maybe he just had a very good day in the Kentucky Derby. [ESPN.com]

And Gary West of the Dallas-Ft Worth Morning Star asserts that Barbaro simply enjoyed the most perfect of trips.

Well, I think that Finley’s one-race wonder theory is even more of a stretch than thinking that he’ll bounce. My opinion is that it’s far more likely that the Derby was a case of the horse improving in just his sixth lifetime start rather than it being a singular fluke. And as far as the “perfect trip” theory, I think that the horse made his own good luck in the Derby. He got good position because he had the athleticism to recover from a stumble out of the gate – a stagger that any other horse could have used as an excuse in itself – and had the speed to put himself there.

Do I think Barbaro is a lock? No. The two weeks off after the far more generous spacing is an unknown factor that nobody – even Michael Matz – can predict the effect of with certainty. And it’s also entirely possible that Brother Derek is the equal of Barbaro; as I’ve said before, I believe that if you thought Brother Derek was the better of the two going into the Derby, you should probably like him on Saturday. Finley correctly points out that he wouldn't be the first horse to rebound in the Preakness after a subpar Derby performance.

But having said that, I don’t really see where Barbaro is worth a significant bet-against in this race, at least with Brother Derek on top. For one thing, unless the betting on Sweetnorthernsaint is so far out of whack (again) as to make Brother Derek the third choice, there’ll be no value on him. More importantly, I feel that the pace scenario for the Preakness, like the Derby, does not serve either Brother Derek or SNS well. There’s plenty of speed, and I think that it’s possible that if Alex Solis tries to gun him to the lead, as Joe Drape reports in the NY Times that he’s likely to do, he’s going to have a fast and fresher opponent in Like Now to contend with. Remember, Brother Derek is coming back on two weeks rest too; many people seem to be ignoring that. His prior races were spaced seven, five, and four weeks apart. And I could argue that his race in the Derby was actually far tougher than that of Barbaro – he certainly covered more ground - and that just maybe, he could be the one that will bounce!

- The NY Times piece is currently the seventh most popular sports article of the day in terms of the number of times it was emailed. Ahead of it is a story on skiing, one on hazing in college sports, two on the final of the Champions League (that’s European soccer), and two on the Yanks. Not saying much for the Mets I suppose.

- As regular readers are well aware, I’m totally fascinated by the incredible sums of money that it’s taken to knock Sweetnorthernsaint down to favoritism in the Kentucky and Illinois Derbies. His trainer spoke about it at this morning’s ‘alibi breakfast,’ and he seems similarly impressed and surprised.

Michael Trombetta.... said he was "shocked" two weeks ago when his horse went to the post in the Kentucky Derby as the 5-1 favorite. "There were so many things going on, and when he was knocked down to the favorite, it was unbelievable. To this day, I still haven't figured it out." "There were so many things going on, and when he was knocked down to the favorite, it was unbelievable. To this day, I still haven't figured it out." [Bloodhorse]

Thursday Morning Notes - May 18

- Barclay Tagg did it again, picking up his 4th consecutive winner at Belmont on Wednesday in a rather bizarre running of the Thirty Flags Stakes. Originally scheduled for the turf, the switch to the main track resulted in the scratches of every horse in the main body of the race, except for Samsincharge. The main-track-only’s comprised four of the five runners, and one of them would MTO his way to some black type that some might say he doesn't deserve.

Or North American black type, anyway. Tagg’s entry, La Chiflota (Hussonet), is actually a Grade 1 winner in Chile. His first two tries here were fair, and he deserved to be the 4th choice at 9-2. But this barn is on fire now, and three winners prior to La Chiflota returned 8-1, 5-1, and 2-1. Tagg has two entrants for Thursday – Mikethemoondog (6-1) in the 2nd, and Megatrend, the morning line favorite in the 3rd.

- The backers of Survivalist (Danzig), last year’s Gotham winner, didn’t give up hope today. The colt was pounded at the windows in his first two races as a four-year old, but he could do no better than second. He was 9-2 morning line in Wednesday’s feature, but got slammed again, on the nose down to 2-1, and drifting up to 5-2 co-favoritism at the end. He parlayed a perfect Edgar Prado ride behind 11-1 Lieutenant Danz into a gritty win, holding off Darley’s Backchat by a half; final sixteenth in 6.43 seconds. The runner-up took all the late money, getting hit from 9-2 to 7-2 late.

- Barbaro’s owners, Roy and Gretchen Jackson, own his two-year old half brother Man in Havana (Quiet American), and a weanling full brother.

Post Positions Bring Clarity

- The Preakness picture seems clearer to me after the post position draw. I think that the biggest winners were Like Now and Barbaro. Like Now could not have done better. He gets the rail, and not only are Bernardini and Diabolical caught on the outside, they both will have to clear the big three just inside in order to challenge for the lead. In Barbaro’s case, it’s not that the six hole is particularly great in itself, but more just that it’s not a disasterous draw; plus, I think that he could benefit from Like Now’s good fortune.

Like Now, with Garrett Gomez replacing Fernando Jara, could really be a key player in the race. They’ll be a lot of activity on the outside as he settles in on the rail, and he should be able to conserve some energy in relation to the others going into the first turn. Still, he should have company by that time in the form of Bernardini and possibly Diabolical as well

Brother Derek seems the most likely of the three top choices to tug his way towards the front runners as they go down the backstretch. I know he rallied from far back in the Derby. But I’m of the belief that horses will run the way they like to if they have the opportunity to do so. Brother Derek didn’t have that chance in the Derby, but he should in this race, and I think he’ll move on the backstretch to challenge Like Now. He could find him a difficult foe to pass. If Brother Derek is the horse that many people think he is, he will prevail and grab the lead. But Edgar Prado should be observing these proceedings from just behind on Barbaro, and the Derby champ could take advantage of the pace battle in front of him to steamroll the opposition through the stretch again.

I’m starting to sour on Sweetnorthernsaint a bit. He’s really had everything his own way in the races that he’s won, and has never shown he could pass horses in the stretch. As I’ve written before, I’m not impressed by the visual look of his “rally” in the Gotham. And, of course, he’ll likely be overbet; I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s second choice. He didn’t draw great, and chances are that he’s once again going to be taken out of his game, which is being right up on the lead. If he moves to challenge for the lead early too - and if Bernardini hangs in there as well - there could be a real destructive pace, and perhaps a huge Preakness win by Barbaro. We’ve seen past Derby winners such as Funny Cide and Smarty Jones validate their Derby wins with authority at Pimlico, and Barbaro seems poised to do the same.

- Bernardini will be making his first start around two turns in just his 4th career start. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 on a muddy track in New York. "The work was very nice," trainer Tom Albertrani said. "I caught him galloping out in 1:15 4/5."

"With his pedigree, this horse is going to have no problem handling the distance.....He galloped out real well after the Withers and the way he trains, he just gives you every indication that he's going to be a top-notch horse." [Brisnet.com]

- This is a lot to ask, and even the trainer admits that the Peter Pan was the next logical spot, but added, ‘there's only one opportunity to try to win the Preakness or the Kentucky Derby." [Bloodhorse] He’s definitely a wild card here; it’s possible he could improve around two turns. He’s by AP Indy out of Grade 1 stakes winner Cara Rafaela (Quiet American).

- There’s not much to choose from as far as finding a longshot for the exotics. Greeley’s Legacy looks like the only possibility for a longshot closer, and Brad Free makes a case for that in his Racing Form chat tonight.

I will be trying to get Greeley's Legacy (20-1) into the trifecta, at the expense of at least one of the three favorites. He (GL) ran a lot better than the line shows in the Lexington.

As far as the others, I’ll bet Platinum Couple before I bet Hemingway’s Key. This horse has just been awful this year, on fast, sloppy and synthetic surfaces alike.

- Kiaran McLaughlin made it clear that the jockey change to Garrett Gomez was not his idea.

"There was no real reason to switch. [Jara] hadn't done anything wrong, in my opinion, but the owner wanted us to try and get a more experienced and better-known rider. He pays the bills so I said, `Yes, sir, we will get the best available.'" [Bloodhorse]

Sweetnorthernsaint Stock (SNS) Rising

- Brother Derek got most of the post-Derby bad-trip sympathy, but Sweetnorthernsaint has been catching up in that regard. Mike Trombetta has made it clear that his colt was done from the very beginning, when he broke at the back of the pack. His journey was detailed in the official race chart thusly:

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, steadied when bumped at the start by A.P. WARRIOR and forced out on PRIVATE VOW, was steadied again under the wire the first time in tight quarters, worked his way between foes around the first turn, angled inside on the backstretch, boldly came through close quarters along the rail at the five-sixteenths pole, but faltered when straightened for the drive.

Like Dan Hendricks, Trombetta is placing his hopes on his horse being able to run his race this time. But the NY Post’s Ray Kerrison agrees with my opinion that this is not necessarily assured just because the field is shorter.

A week ago, Like Now, the free-running Gotham winner, appeared to be the main speed of the Preakness, with the Saint and Brother Derek right behind him.

Now in comes Bernardini, a lightly-raced colt with a ton of early speed, and yet another newcomer, a speed freak named Diabolical. Suddenly, the Preakness front end may look like the Long Island Expressway on Friday nights - or the Derby all over again.

The nice clean, clear trip everyone expected in the Preakness may not be there after all. [NY Post]

Today’s post position draw should help us get an idea of what will transpire early on.

As far as the late Sweetnorthernsaint money that is fast becoming legendary, Trombetta said "It was not my money.” The late action on the tote board will be one of the many interesting side plots to keep an eye on.

- This week has certainly been a boon for the Fair Hill training center from where Barbaro will ship to Pimlico sometime Friday afternoon. We’ve read countless articles on the scenic and tranquil surroundings, the all-weather wood chip track, and the generous grazing pastures. I was fascinated to read the other day that there is no security gate at the facility, and anyone can just drive in! You wouldn't see that in New York, that’s for sure! No wonder there’s been so much press stories written from there. It sounds, however, like it can be a bit of a free-for-all. "It's terrific that people want to come by," Matz said. "But it amazes people that some people try to walk right in the barn. I wish they'd at least ask first." [Daily Racing Form]

I got a comment from Alex, who works at Tim Wooley Racing, an outfit which is headquartered at Fair Hill (where Diabolical is stabled as well). He writes: “Watching Barbaro train at Fair Hill everyday, we are psyched to see if he can go all the way.” I think we all are, whether we end up betting on him in the Preakness or not. It’s reported on the Tim Wooley Racing website, which includes some daily observations on Barbaro’s preparations, that Haskin was hanging around there for three days. After his frenetic Derby analysis, let’s hope that he is getting some relaxing grazing in too, and perhaps he can come up with a single, coherent pick for the Preakness. On Bloodhorse.com today, Haskin comments on the changes in the way the top contenders are being prepped for the race.

In 1987, when Jack Van Berg breezed Alysheba a half in :50 1/5 early on Preakness week, it was considered too slow, and the alarm immediately went off. When John Servis elected not to work Smarty Jones at all in 2004, no one seemed to care. Now you have three trainers all skipping a work and not a mention has been made.

- Bernardini had his rain-delayed final work on Wednesday, and the connections of Ah Day will put their $100,000 to better use.

- Bob Neuimeier is one who thinks that Barbaro will bounce in the Preakness.

Welcome to the mysterious world of the “Bounce Theory” — racing’s version of the Rubik’s Cube. The tenet holds that a horse that runs an abnormally fast race or speed-figure number will typically regress in his next start, unless he or she has sufficient recovery time, usually 30 days or more. Barbaro is being asked to bounce back in 14 days, not nearly enough rest. A trainer as sharp as Matz would never run a prized horse back on such short time.
......
Ironically, the biggest advantage Barbaro had for the Kentucky Derby is potentially his biggest obstacle entering the Preakness — time. But you say, he won so effortlessly, surely he has plenty of fuel left.

Maybe. It’s more likely that he doesn't, and at the hype-induced odds of 3-5 or less, he becomes a very bad bet. [MSNBC.com]

Preakness Ramblings - May 16

- Michael Matz has tried to keep a low profile since the Derby. He’s a confident man to be sure, but cautiously so, agreeing with those who say that there’s no real way to know how he’ll do off the two week layoff. But Ray Kerrison of the NY Post was able to finally elicit a bit of cockiness from the trainer: “Somebody might beat Barbaro - some day."

But will that day be Saturday? The post position draw on Wednesday will be important with so many speed and pressing types in the race; but however it turns out, Barbaro will likely have far better horses to track down than he did at Churchill, probably including both Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. Bernardini will have to prove his worth in only his 4th lifetime start, but don’t forget about Like Now. If he draws inside, he can park himself on the rail with a lead and could be a tough opponent. We’ve already seen that he has the breeding. And don’t be too fooled by that line in Sweetnorthernsaint's pp's in the Gotham – his close for third to Like Now looks better on paper than it actually was – SNS wasn’t catching him any time soon. I’m not saying he’s going to win, but he could be a big factor, causing one or more of the contenders to expend precious energy in order to get by.

I think this is going to be one contentiously paced Preakness, and Edgar Prado is going to be looking to get a similar trip to that of the Derby, a good three-four lengths off the lead. The big difference though, is that the Derby winner isn’t going to be gunning for Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister this time. He’s going to be faced with some really good horses, and if one or both of Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint can avoid getting caught up early, Dan Hendricks may get his wish:

"I'm hoping for a stretch duel," said Hendricks, who returned to California for a few days before heading to Pimlico while [Brother Derek] stayed at Churchill Downs. "I hope it's a true-run race, that's all I can ask for." [Albany Times-Union]

- Besides getting a better trip than in the Derby, Dan Hendricks will be hoping for a better seat. At least one not near Barbaro’s assistant Peter Brette.

"I thought I was going to blow his eardrums out at one point," Brette says. "Dan was explaining to his owners where the horse was and how he was doing. I was fairly quiet until I saw him turning for home. Then, I started screaming" [Philly Daily News]

No wonder that group looked so depressed right after the race; bad enough their horse lost, they had it rubbed in. That seems like a violation of good track etiquette to me.

- Kent Desormeaux told the Washington Post that Sweetnorthernsaint was bothered by dirt in the face.

"The sand in his eyes frazzled him, and he tried to run away from it," the jockey said. "Once I turned down the backside, I would have been happy to stay back, but I didn't want to jerk his teeth out. He would have burned just as much energy dragging me out of the saddle. He was just flying by horses, and I wasn't asking him."
.......
"I guarantee I won't be worse than second," he said.

I’m wondering if he’s going to be second choice, the way he’s been getting bet late. If I bet the race at all, it will depend on if there's anything worth betting, and I don't know that they'll be any value with any combination of the top three. I'll be spending the next few days deciding if there's a case to be made for one of them running out (and I mean other than Barbaro), and, if so, which of the others can get a piece and create some value in the exotics.

Despite the nine, and maybe ten horse field, three of them, Hemingway’s Key, Greeley’s Legacy, and oh man, Platinum Couple, figure to be no factor whatsoever at any point in this race. Hemingway’s Key has been just miserable this year, losing his four tries by more than 40 lengths combined. I find it hard to believe that this was Zito’s decision to run. And Platinum Couple...I’m not even going to bother.

- Jerry Klein, the excellent writer for Thoroughbred Times and MSN/Fox.com, on the two weeks between races:

Whether it makes much sense to put the best horses in the country back on the track so soon after the ordeal of the Derby is another question often raised around this time. The close proximity of the Preakness is a remnant of bygone days, when the two races were rivals rather than equal parts of racing's most sought-after prize. Indeed, Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown winner in 1919, won his Preakness just four days after he won the Derby.

That timing made more sense 75 years ago, when races were run at a slower pace over deeper tracks. Modern trainers rarely opt to run a top horse with less than three weeks off and many prefer a month.[MSN.Foxsports.com]

News and Notes - May 16

- We don’t generally think that harness drivers share the same chance of critical injury as jockeys, but there’s always risk involved when it comes to horses and humans, no matter what the endeavor. Veteran driver Hal Belote suffered fatal injuries in a three horse spill at Harringon Park in Delaware on Monday night. Whether they’re running, pacing, or trotting, they’re still going fast, and one misstep can cause a tragic chain reaction. Belote’s horse fell, causing two horses behind to go down, seriously injuring their drivers as well.

"It's like stubbing your toe when you're going 35 miles an hour or more," [Delaware Harness Racing Commissioner Hugh] Gallagher said. "You've got a lot of weight, and a lot of speed combined."

Gallagher said Belote was hit by Warrington's horse [Steve Warrington, torn ligaments in his knee and facial lacerations], racing immediately behind, and then by Givens' rig [Brandon Givens, compound fracture of his leg], which he said "apparently had considerable impact" with Belote. [delawareonline]

In the US Trotting Association’s account, Belote was said to be a popular figure among his racing colleagues and the USTA’s Jerry Connors remembers him on his Free For All blog: i didn’t know Hal Belote very well, but i remember one qualifying session at Liberty Bell where we were introduced and he said, "I’m Happy Hal.” Hal Belote was 51 years old.

- News like that makes petty disputes seem downright inappropriate, especially when it comes to the human athletes that bear such risk each day. Here we go again with ads on jockeys silks. Mark Guidry wore one during the final race on Oaks day, and drew scrutiny from the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority for doing so. It seems that Guidry did not seek permission from the track, owners, or stewards, as is generally required, because of an exception in the rules that waive the need for such approval if the rider is wearing a recognized logo of an organization such as the Jockeys’ Guild. The problem here is that the logo was part of an ad by JockeyMedia.com, a group affiliated with the Guild that is helping jockeys market their silks to other advertisers. "If an ad probably is really a commercial ad, should there be some approval ahead of time?" said Lisa Underwood, the authority's general counsel. [Louisville Courier-Journal] Shouldn’t the authority be worrying about more important things?

- In the Ohio slots referendum derby, the Learn and Earn group will not amend their prospective ballot proposal to include Cincinnati because, they claim, to change the wording would mean starting their petition drive from scratch. As it is, obtaining the 322,899 required signatures by August 8 is not a lock. Louis Beck, the man behind the Cincy initiative, points his finger at Penn National, which is trying to avoid competition for their nearby Argosy casino in Indiana; he calls them "the 800-pound gorilla in the room.."

Beck said any ballot initiative that leaves Cincinnati out will fail. "They can't win without Southwest Ohio. There's no chance of it."

But Andy Bowers, a spokesman for Penn National, which also owns Raceway Park in Toledo, said it's just the opposite. That's because he views voters in Southwest Ohio as more conservative, and thinks that they will be more likely to approve gambling if it's not in their city. [Cincinnati Enquirer]

TVG Is (Sometimes) Cool

- I’ve been ragging on TVG lately, but it’s not all bad, and we have to give credit where it’s due. I like knowledgeable but low-key guys like Bob Baedeker and the other Bob who was on with Vic Stauffer on Sunday. Gary Seibel is fine, Simon Bray does a good job, and I don’t even mind Carrothers, though I can understand if he drives some people crazy. I like Frank Lyons a lot. I guess I do like most of the guys, with a few exceptions, and the women other than Jessica York are fine, if not quite up to the level of the HRTV Girls. But I'm not thrilled about the new shows or the Today Show set.

Now, Stauffer, the race-caller at Hollywood Park, is certainly an interesting addition to the mix. He’s extremely knowledgeable, and not at all afraid to say what’s on his mind, as Nick pointed out regarding his being skeptical about this story that Michael Matz was thinking Triple Crown from the first time that Barbaro galloped for assistant trainer Peter Brette. Stauffer spoke caustically about the fact that Oaklawn’s Terry Wallace has his picture all over the Oaklawn media guide (he’s the media director), and at first insisted rather assertively that the Khalila affair at Belmont was no big deal, and just a part of handicapping.

I was a bit surprised to hear Stauffer openly discuss his wagering on a horse at the Gulfstream meet, where he also serves as track announcer. I guess there’s nothing wrong with the announcer betting on the races, but does Stauffer save his “YES!” calls for the times that his choice wins? Maybe I was naive to think that announcers don’t bet on races they call. I'm not making a big issue of it at all, in fact, it’s kinda “cool,” a word Stauffer used to describe both Surf Cat and the three-horse second race at Churchill. But it seems to me like it’s the same thing as if we learned that Al Michaels had bets on NFL games he’s called, and I imagine that would’ve raised some kind of reaction from someone. It does seem like it would be somewhat inappropriate for Monday Night Football, but in this case it’s actually pretty funny.

Stauffer spoke about Surf Cat’s win in the Mervyn LeRoy, saying that there was a point that it looked as if he may not beat a horse. Sure enough, the replay showed him seeming to not respond to Alex Solis’ initial urgings, but once he got going, he was gone. "It took him about 50 or 100 yards for him to get going after I asked him, but, by the five-sixteenths [pole] he was flying. He won handily....Around the turn he felt like a train going down a hill.” [LA Times]

- The Preakness is picking up some horses, and one of them, Diabolical, may add to what already looks like a contentious pace. No, this post is not left over from before the Derby. With all the hype about the expected pace in that one and the bad trip Brother Derek got, we’re all talking as if this will be a relative walk in the park for him. But I think that a possible hot pace scenario in this race is being overlooked. Besides Brother Derek, Like Now, Bernardini, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Diabolical, who chased Barbaro on the turf last year, all prefer to be on or close to the pace...and we were saying that about Barbaro too before the Derby. We’re not hearing much about a fast Preakness pace, perhaps because it didn't quite materialize as many thought it would in the Derby. But this race too may very well come down to which of them can do what Barbaro already has shown he can – sit a few lengths behind the pace and finish strong enough to win. As for Brother Derek, he won’t have start from post 18, but I wouldn’t want to see him draw the ten post here either.

- Just how much ground did Brother Derek lose to Barbaro by virtue of being wide? Andy Beyer turns to another expert for the answer:

According to Thoro-Graph founder Jerry Brown, Brother Derek was 4 1/2 horses wide on the first turn and 6 1/2 wide on the second turn - compared with 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 for Barbaro. If one path on a turn equals one length, Brother Derek traveled five lengths farther than the winner - not enough to account for his 9 1/2-length loss. Not all speed handicappers would concur with Brown's figures, which indicate that Brother Derek could have won the majority of Kentucky Derbies over the last two decades, but the performance was certainly an excellent one. Brother Derek should have finished second in the Derby; if he had started from an inside post, he probably would have done so. [Washington Post]

Belmont Notes - May 14

- Maybe if I wasn’t off at Mother’s Day festivities, I may have had Dave ($12.00) in the NY-bred Kingston at Belmont. I mentioned the other day how sharp Barclay Tagg’s horses have been since he returned from Florida, and Dave (Ends Well) was his 5th winner out of 13 starters (plus six seconds and a third) in New York since then. You may recall that this five-year old gelding won two state-bred races in five days at Saratoga last summer, including the West Point Handicap for John Hertler. He’d been out six months but now has a close second and a stakes win in two starts for his new trainer.

In Saturday's feature, the G3 Bold Ruler, Tiger (Storm Boot) showed that his flashy win against second-level allowance horses was no fluke – and showed why the Beyer speed figures are as popular as they are. He earned a 111 fig that day, which, in theory, made him a faster horse than the G1 winner Bishop Court Hill. And though Pletcher’s Carter Handicap winner was the 9-5 morning line favorite, the bettors went for the fig, and made Tiger the 3-2 choice. Delaware shipper Pisgah also earned a gaudy Beyer in his last, but seemed a bit dead on the board at 7-2.

The lightly-raced five year old gelding is out of a stakes-winning mare by Timeless Native; he’s a half to graded stakes winner Roxelana. Tiger is the fifth stakes winner of the year for Storm Boot, a Storm Cat stallion son standing for $15,000 in Kentucky. Last Sunday, his three-year old filly Gumboots took the Fury Stakes at Woodbine and became one of the favorites for the Woodbine Oaks on June 11. Tiger was one of two winners on the day for James Jerkens, off to a ridiculous start at Belmont, at 7 for 14. Jockey Elbar Coa was quite impressed with this horse, who was making just his 8th lifetime start at age 5. "He was chasing and caught up to Bishop Court Hill by himself. He wasn't even blowing hard after the race. It was a real impressive effort." [Bloodhorse]

- There was a lot of talk about the 3rd race on Sunday, in which Khalila, the 2-5 morning line favorite, was declared a purse-only starter after trainer Kiaran McLaughlin informed the stewards that the horse would run with one of her rear shoes missing. The problem here is that the change occured before the pools opened for the race, so the horse simply showed up as a scratch on the tote board on TVG, as well as on any internet tote one would use. It’s entirely possible that people bet the race without knowing that the filly was running; I had no idea until she was discoverd on the track during the post parade on TVG. Without her in the race, Song and Dance looked like lone speed, and she was bet down to 4-1 probably based at least partly on that. But Khalila sat just behind and ate up Song and Dance, and by the half mile pole, she was already extending her lead en route to a ten length win, as Undeniable Queen, the longest shot on the board, came on to pick up the pieces for the pari-mutuel win.

Whatsmore, those who had the horse in the Pick 4 received the post-time favorite, Chili Cat, who ran third at 3-5 (as she did at Saratoga last August). Ugh. This was a bad deal for the bettors. It was a good one for MacLaughlin, whose three-year old is two-for-two; she finished the six furlongs in 1:09.87. She’s a $550,000 Elusive Quality filly, out of an AP Indy mare; and she’s a half to stakes winner Galloping Gal.

I made one bet on Sunday, in the fifth. Her Royal Nibs ran well in her first two career races at 5-2 and 7-2, graduating in her second try for Dale Romans. Then, in her first allowance race, she was 8-1, got off sluggishly, and finished 5th. On Sunday, she was 5-1 in the morning line, but got pounded on the nose in the win pool down to 8-5 with a few minutes left. Hello. No value there of course, but nice exacta payoffs with a couple of the longer-priced fillies that I also liked. This time, not surprisingly, Her Royal Nibs was first out of the gate and had the lead. The problem is that she got pushed by one of my choices for second, 9-1 Holy Kryptonite, who was more than just a bit closer to the favorite than I, or Her Royal Nibs, would have liked. They both held on gamely despite going 45.95 in the mile and a sixteenth race, but succumbed to 18-1 She’s Excellent. OK, at least I’m getting a little closer. And we’ll keep an eye out for Her Royal Nibs.

Nowhere Man

- I am nowhere with my handicapping these days. Off the board; up the track; out of the money; left at the gate. I made it to Belmont for a couple of hours on an unexpectedly beautiful spring day with only 5,423 on hand. I bet three races from three different tracks, and ran dead last in two of them. Is there some kind of Grand Slam bets that includes horses that run last? The three were all medium long shots, and all seemed so logical at the time.

Monmouth is open. Kind of. Weekends only up until June 2; it’s kind of a preview. No turf racing either. The brand new turf course will debut around June 24. In the 6th on Saturday, Cherokee Breeze looked like an overlay at 8-1; he’d been in the money 8 out of 13 lifetime starts. Make that 9 of 14, but he never threatened passing tired horses for third. In the 6th at Churchill, Boggy Creek was coming off a long layoff for trainer Paul McGee, sporting a 3 for 5 record with 180+ layoff horses, and a $6.56 ROI. He’d won at different tracks and distances last year, including a minor stakes at Sam Houston, but didn’t beat a single horse here.

Gary Contessa seems to be getting going after a slow start the the meeting; he had two winners on Friday, including a 15-1 shot ridden by Elbar Coa. The jockey was back up for Contessa on Closing Bell in the 7th on Saturday, and he seemed worth a shot at 12-1, cutting back to his favorite six furlong distance after a dull two-turn try. He briefly had the lead in a 21.83 second 1st quarter, and was quickly done.

Looking back, they all seemed like sound bets, with the possible exception of Boggy Creek, who was plain dead on the board. 6-1 morning line, he went off at 11-1, and a look back at his pp’s shows that his three wins came in his three most well-bet races. And therein lies what I think are a couple of good handicapping reminders to come out of the day. I sometimes find it instructive to look back at the odds that horses have gone off in the past. I will find horses that run remarkably in line with their betting – they always seem live on the track when they’re live on the board, and vice-versa. It can be a real challenge to distinguish between “dead on the board” and a legitimate overlay, and the past odds can sometimes be a clue. I’ve found that horses that have won at a price before can do it again. But in the case of horses like Boggy Creek, whose good races correspond with low odds, I’m wary, or at least I should be, when the odds drift too high.

The other handicapping hint here is one I rarely stick to. There’s much to be learned in going back to the past performances after the race is run to see how your analysis fared, and what lessons can be taken from it. This goes along, I guess, with the idea of keeping written records of your bets, so that you can learn your strengths and weaknesses. I recall reading one author advising that you should, in theory, spend as much time studying races after they are run as before. It’s a nice and logical concept of course. How does anyone learn if you don’t go back and analyze what happened?

But it’s just impractical, life being what it is, at least for me. I think most of us are probably thankful whenever we can find any time to indulge in this most incredible game, whose pleasures never seem to recede, no matter how many times we partake. The idea of plunging into a detailed analysis of yesterday’s bets is just not going to happen for me. But any little bit helps, and I try to discern what I can from that post-race peek at the Form – you know, the one when you look to see what went wrong.

And writing about it here helps too, so perhaps I should just write about all my losers. It could be very instructive, and perhaps therapeutic too! I wouldn't have much time to write about anything else though, at least not now.

- Reader Thecalicocat alerted me to this item, about the betting at Delaware Park for the Derby.

If the Derby betting was restricted to a separate pool at the Stanton track, Barbaro would have paid only $7 to win and the exacta with Bluegrass Cat, with Delaware's leading rider Ramon Dominguez aboard, would have paid only $217.80. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

It’s starting to look like a six horse field, as Baffert has declared Point Determined and Bob and John out. (Though King Leatherbury is talking about entering someone named Ah Day into the race.) Barbaro will certainly be favored again at Del Park, and everywhere else. He may very well be overbet at 3-5, but in a six horse field, what kind of value are you going to get even if you like Brother Derek, who I think you have to give a good shot?

If you thought that Brother Derek was a better horse than Barbaro before the Derby, even if you thought that the circumstances of the race made him an unlikely winner, I think you have to still like him in the Preakness. I can’t say that the Derby didn’t prove anything about the relative merits of the two – Barbaro had a dream trip because he had the talent to get himself into that spot – but Brother Derek showed enough so that his supporters should keep the faith. He deserves to be the solid second choice. But the way Sweetnorthernsaint gets bet, you never know.

Barbaro is on the front page of today’s New York Times. Joe Drape writes about how Michael Matz has trained and campaigned him with the Triple Crown in mind from the start. Literally, from the start.

A year ago, after the big dark bay horse arrived at the European-styled training center here, the trainer Michael Matz and his assistant, Peter Brette, shared a transcendental thought about a colt by the ho-hum name of Barbaro. But they dared not say it aloud.

Barbaro was a superhorse, Mr. Brette believed, after he first took him onto the racetrack for a morning workout. Barbaro could sweep the Triple Crown, Mr. Matz said he kept thinking. It was the beginning of what would become a most unorthodox plan to chase after one of sport's most elusive prizes.

"We were training for the Triple Crown," Mr. Matz said, daring to tempt racing's fates. "It has been so long since anyone has won it, why not try something different?"

Another Futile Try

- Another dismal effort on the dirt for Highland Cat, though, as reported by Nick, he at least impressed Simon Brey with his pre-race appearance. Unfortunately, he’s a horse who likes to be dead last shortly after the start, and that’s not going to win many races. He was last, then second to last, then last again. He at least showed a bit of interest in the stretch, rallying past two horses to get 7th, of 9, and earning $114 in purse money. The Head Chef was so taken by that little move that she almost had me convinced on the way home that he had finished 5th, which I would have considered a moral victory.

Well, the race didn’t tell us anything we didn’t know. He doesn’t race well on the dirt, and we need to try him on grass, which will happen, hopefully, on May 26.

- I dumped Dish Network for Direct TV shortly before the beginning of the NHL playoffs. Dish had dropped OLN at the beginning of the season over the usual fees dispute, and though I had little problem getting through the regular season without it (only because no Rangers road games were part of their exclusive telecasts), it was a must for the playoffs. I knew this meant losing HRTV. But I waited until after the essential parts of the Gulfstream and Santa Anita meets were over, and just figured I’d worry about them next year.

So what happened? Four days after I switched, Dish Network reinstated OLN (and a few days after that, the Rangers were swept out of the playoffs). And now, I’m already missing HRTV. Even though it’s not their prime season, they do offer exclusive coverage of tracks like Lone Star, Remington, Woodbine, and the Meadowlands. And besides, they just do a really nice job. Not only are their hosts knowledgeable, but, with one notable exception, they eschew the histrionics that we all too often hear on TVG, where they try to elevate every race to the importance of a Grade 1 stakes. And besides, I miss Millie Ball, especially when seeing TVG’s new Lady Luck program.

In trying to compensate for the loss, I do get some of the tracks on a feed from an upstate OTB, via a link that a reader sent me last year. Other tracks, like the Meadowlands, offer their video live on their website. But I’m shut out entirely these days from Lone Star, a track that I do like to play. It seems to me that providing a convenient video feed of the races online is an easy and logical way for a track to attract business. Yet, when I go to the link for “Live Racing” on the Lone Star, and other Magna track sites, I’m told that I have to sign up for an Xpress Bet account. It seems to me that it’s counterproductive for Magna to make it a hassle to get their video feed; I just make my wagers at other tracks, and that’s lost business for them. With all the competition, you’d think they would make access to their signals as easy as possible.

And if this isn’t all bad enough, now TVG is going all loopy with their new programming. The hosts look extremely uncomfortable in their new chairs and make me feel the same. You can see their programs and Forms strewn all about, along with a laptop computer placed awkwardly in the foreground (or on their laps!). I'll be even sorrier once the big stakes at Meadowlands harness start. They have a great harness guy, and treat those races like a major sport, complete with replays of relevant past races during their analysis. The only advantage now of Direct TV (other than their far superior technology) is the Yanks on YES Network, and I lived without that just fine last season. And, I’m locked into Direct TV for a year. Oh man...

- Barbaro galloped a mile and a quarter at Fair Hill yesterday, and Michael Matz said, “he’s doing terrific.”

He may put in a "stretch gallop" at Fair Hill next week before shipping to Pimlico for the race. Date and time of arrival have not been set. Matz could ship on the morning of the race or a couple of days earlier to gallop over the track. [NY Daily News]

- Cindy Noll Murphy is experiencing what is being called “temporary paralysis” from a bruised spinal cord suffered in a spill at Prairie Meadows on Thursday. Her husband Travis told Bloodhorse: "She regained a lot of feeling that she didn't have right after the injury....Although it's not coming around super fast, she can move her fingers and toes, so she has a minimal range of motion."

Handle Up

- Handle at the recent Tampa Bay and Beulah meets were up, and it seems we’ve been reading a lot of that lately, haven’t we? Turfway, Santa Anita, Hawthorne, Oaklawn, Laurel, even Aqueduct. There have been different reasons cited – Polytrack at Turfway, the new turf course at Laurel – but a lot of it comes down to field sizes, and Tampa, according to the Form’s Matt Hegarty, had one of the highest field-size averages in the country at 9.57 horses per race this year, up from 9.34 last year.

"It's a signature we try to place on our meet, large field sizes," said Peter Berube, the track's general manager. "The racing office really did an outstanding job. They had a plan and they executed it." [Daily Racing Form]

For Tampa, that’s now four consecutive years of solid growth, and this comes despite its refusal to provide its signal to many offshore rebate shops. I’ve never been there, but I’ve been told that it’s kinda like what Gulfstream used to be – a nice place to hang out on a sunny Florida day.

Hegarty also reports that racing companies such as Churchill, Keeneland, and NYRA are quietly raising their fees for their simulcast signals. I say ‘quietly’ because the details seem to be guarded as closely as the National Security Agency – you know, those guys compiling a database of all of your phone calls – is protecting itself from the Justice Department's attempted investigation into its warrantless snooping.

Racetracks have been ridiculed for practically giving away their signals, which limits their own profitability and creates a large enough spread between the takeout rate and the simulcast fee so that the shops can not only offer rebates, but offer ones large enough so that NYRA’s new rewards program can’t even compete with them percentage-wise. These comments by a rebate shop owner who agreed to increases he called “very big” say it all:

"I'll be honest - their signals, especially Keeneland's, were so underpriced it was ridiculous….Those guys are doing all the work, paying all the bills, and guys like me are making a lot of money off them. What they're charging now is what they should be getting." [DRF]

- Dick Jerardi of the Philly Daily News has a great piece today about Barbaro, who is chilling out on the farm at Fair Hill, a training center about an hour north of Pimlico. The Derby champ seems to come out of the race well.

Barbaro showed no stiffness when he began to gallop. He looked about as smooth as he did in Kentucky when everybody there could not say enough good things about how Barbaro was taking to his training. You never know for sure until the next race, but Barbaro seems as good as he was prior to the Derby. Matz was looking for a few specific things yesterday.

"He obviously wasn't nervous," Matz said. "He looked like he was jogging real good and sound. He seemed relaxed out there. He's eating good so those are all good signs. We took a blood [sample] the other day and the blood was real good. I think he did what he had to do in the race. No race is an easy one, but I think he made it as easy as he possibly could, running a mile and a quarter. So we'll just try to build him back up for the next race."

Barbaro will likely not have a timed workout for the Preakness, and neither will the two horses considered to be his main threats at Pimlico.

"I won't work him," Hendricks said of Brother Derek. "I'll just give him a very strong gallop on Wednesday before we leave. He's always worked very lightly before his races. He bounced out of the race great, as good as any of his other races, and this may have been the best race he's ever run, considering the post and the trip he had."
……
[Michael Trombetta on Sweetnorthernsaint:] "I opted to go without a work and take a fresh horse over there. He jogged the last two days, and we'll get some nice gallops in. Next Saturday is going to creep up quickly. We'll ship to Pimlico Saturday morning. We're only 20 miles away, Laurel is home, and there's no need to disrupt the horse's routine. It's nice and quiet here." [Bloodhorse]

Besides the top three, you have Like Now, Bernardini, and Hemingway’s Key as definite starters. Baffert is still wavering on Bob and John (a "horrible trip from the start”) and Point Determined (“didn't like Churchill”). It seemed obvious, at least in retrospect, that Point Determined didn't like the track based on his timid gallops over it after arriving from California.

- The California State Senate has passed, by a vote of 31-4, a bill that would require tracks to install Polytrack by the end of 2007. The California Horse Racing Board has endorsed the switch too, but doesn’t want the state to be dictating a time frame.

"We want to be absolutely sure in all ways," [CHRB chairman Richard Shapiro] said. "The environment, our climate, what's best for jockeys, respiratory issues ... we want to be sure that what we install is something that will work here.

"If, say, Golden Gate and Del Mar want to go ahead and the other tracks want to see how that goes before moving forward, I am receptive to that. We want a time line that is prudent."

At the same time, he noted that statistics from Kentucky's Turfway Park, where Polytrack has been installed, "have been staggeringly positive for horses' health." [Bloodhorse]

Off the Turf

- Highland Cat will race in the mud today. Unless the track dries out by then, as the rain appears to have stopped. Looking at this as a dirt race, whatever the condition, there are horses that simply look faster than he. In particular, there's Mudesh, who has shown good speed against better and drops slightly here. Garrett Gomez will stick around to pick up the mount on the Main Track Only Rappers Deelite for Linda Rice. He was just a neck behind Mudesh last time, and sports a Tomlinson of 400. No Called Strikes takes a healthy drop for Richard Violette. It seems like Highland Cat is in tough once again; unless the track is still wet enough to somehow benefit him. I get the feeling we'll still be anxiously looking forward to his grass debut once this one is over.

Losing 101

- Nothing But Fun (Dixie Union) picked up where she left off before being thrown to the wolves in the BC Distaff, posting a win in the Mil Kilates at Belmont yesterday. I had an exacta box with the two longest shots on the board, as discussed here the other day. I listened to the call while at work, and was encouraged when I heard that the winner, who went off as just the slight choice over Satin Kiss, was engaged for the lead in a half of 46, which followed a first quarter of 23 2/5; that’s a second quarter of 22 3/5. But she was too much, as my choices, led by the 9-1 Classy Charm, ran second and third. Had the right idea I guess, but winning usually requires perfection.

And I’ve had little of either winning or perfection of late. After a recent lull in wagering activities – I felt like I hadn’t been to the track in weeks when I walked into Belmont last weekend – Derby Day set me off to the point where, this week, I bet a couple of races from Indiana Downs, as well as some harness action from Hoosier and Woodbine, all to no avail. Last night, I thought I’d settle in for a little action, and turned on TVG. The network had unveiled, amidst some fanfare, new graphics and sets on Wednesday. I caught the graphics on Wednesday, and it was nothing to write home about. I thought the whole thing was much ado about nothing. But last night, I saw the new set, with the hosts sitting in plush chairs like they were on the Today Show.

Worse yet, there was new programming instead of straight coverage of the races. Chris Kotulak and Simon Brey were hosting a program called Racing 101, which is supposed to be geared to novices. “This….is…..a …..claiming…..race. That…..means……..” Oh man. For one thing, what novice is going to be watching TVG on a Thursday night on which Prairie Meadows was about the most exciting thing they had going? I mean, really! And Kotulak kept saying something about the “poo-purree” they had on the table; I had no idea what he was talking about, thought they had some horse droppings in a bowl there until he read an email from a viewer pointing out that the correct pronunciation is PO-pourri (as in potpourri). Perhaps Kotulak needs to be watching English 101.

During this show, they were hyping the next one, something called Racing Roundtable, with Todd Schrrrmmmppff. They had a preview shot in which he appeared to be telling what he must have thought was a funny story to Alex Solis, and Solis was standing there nodding politely, as in ‘what the hell is this guy talking about?’

Personally, I tune into TVG for racing and the occasional worthwhile specials like The Works, and I could really do without these new shows. It’s like when MTV stopped showing music videos and introduced their hideous (Beavis and Butthead excluded) programs instead . Does this mean that soon we’ll have some reality show with eight intolerable handicappers shut into a house together with nothing but Racing Forms and a satellite dish? Or perhaps a racing version of Punk’d - A bettor goes to cash a big winning ticket and the cashier seizes it and summons the FBI to handcuff him and drag him away and everyone thinks it’s a panic as that fucking no-talent putz Ashton Kutscher emerges to tell him it’s all a joke, ha ha ha?

TVG should stick to its roots, in my opinion. I found Racing 101 to be totally insufferable, and it drove me to turn off the TV faster than does Jessica York. (Of course, it didn’t help that after spending 15 minutes studying the 4th from Prairie Meadows, I discovered that the track was not available on OTB). Well, at least it saved me some money on this night (I would have lost that Prairie Meadows race). But I’m already starting to really miss HRTV…

Rain or Shine

- Highland Cat is going in Friday’s 9th, rain or shine, slop or turf. Bill Turner wants to give him the race either way; there’s a turf race for him in two weeks. We’re told that the decision is also “because he's worked on his hocks and it seems to have helped HC immensely.”

If the race stays on the grass, the obvious choice on form would be Mister Zee. He ran a strong second last week in the race that Highland Cat didn’t get into; it was his first try at this level. However, he lacks early speed and the shorten-up to seven furlongs from a mile and a sixteenth doesn't look like it will help. Remember, this horse is in the same boat as Highland Cat; with no similar race coming up until the 26th, Carlos Martin jumped at the chance to get any kind of grass race for his horse to try and take advantage of his sharp form. I’m sure that seven furlongs is not his preference.

Barclay Tagg has first-time turfer Stratonic, making his second start and first since September. This horse could love the grass. He’s by Strategic Mission, the sire of Showing Up, who Tagg has said will love the grass. Stratonic is out of a half-sister to Auntie Mame, a multiple graded winner on the grass and a winner of 10 of 17 lifetime. He also has Sir Ivor, TV Lark, and Tom Rolfe close up in his pedigree.

Tagg deserves consideration these days no matter who the horse is. Since returning from Florida, Tagg has sent out 12 starters at Aqueduct or Belmont. He’s won four races, and has six seconds and a third! Tagg took the 7th on Thursday with Soul Possession (Belong to Me), winning on the grass off an even longer layoff than Stratonic. The Mig was up, and has been now for the trainer’s last three winners. Soul Possession is out of a mare by the Irish Derby winner Sir Harry Lewis who is a half to the Grade 1 (Gazelle) winner Buy the Sport.

Unfortunately, the weather forecasts are insistent that it will be a day of wind and heavy rain. If the race comes off and the track is sloppy, Highland Cat would be caught inside and will certainly take a lot of mud in the face. Unless, that is, his revived hocks propel him like a rocket out of the gate in a race without much early jump (after he gets bet down to 8-1 in the final flashes)! Well? It’s possible, right? His long-ago rally for third in his debut was run over a track labeled ‘good,’ so maybe he’ll be the one that loves the slop. Besides, this is like getting a tip – “Hey, I got a tip on the 2, the trainer says.......”

This race doesn’t get any less ponderous if it’s run on a sloppy track instead of grass. Just as most of these have no turf form, only one, the main track only No Called Strikes, has a running line on a track labeled ‘sloppy.’ So your guess is as good as mine. I’ll stick to a win bet, probably bet a small box with Tagg's horse just because I mentioned him here, but that's it as far as exotics. I wouldn’t want to be upset over getting nailed in a triple and not having enough (any?) to win if he ever actually gets home first.

- Corinthian is back in training. [Jim] Jerkens said the horse could return to the races by the end of the Belmont meet or early in Saratoga. [Daily Racing Form]

Jockeys' Insurance Debate: Highlights and Lowlifes

- Matt Hegarty reports in the Form that industry reaction to the proposal to pay for jockeys’ workers compensation insurance out of simulcasting revenues was swift and negative. The opposition is largely due to Reps. Ed Whitfield and Bart Stupak’s suggestion that amendments to the Interstate Horseracing Act (IHA) could give jockeys veto power over simulcasting; and it’s to be expected given the fact that simulcast signals generate approximately 90 percent of the revenue to the racing industry. Would you expect that racetracks and owners would voluntarily give the riders that kind of control over such a vital source of revenue? Perhaps some of them noticed what transpired at the Monticello harness track a few months back when drivers used their veto power to cut off signals, resulting in a disastrous revenue loss, and a resulting 50% slash in purses.

Dan Metzger, the president of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, said that his group considers that the current legislation "is set up properly to give owners and their authorized agents, the trainers, the veto rights. The owners are the investors who put on the sport, and they are the ones who are most qualified to make those decisions." [Daily Racing Form]

Any tinkering with the 1978 IHA is going to make the industry queasy, as it’s the legislation that exempts the sport from laws prohibiting interstate gambling, thereby allowing the simulcasts to proceed. Amendments in 2000 specifically permit telephone and internet wagering on out-of-state tracks. An attorney for the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association explained in this Bloodhorse piece from March:

"First of all, I think I'd be very reluctant to open up the IHA to any amendments…..Beyond that, I would not be in favor of opening it up, because a share of the revenue (to pay for workers' comp) would likely come from owners who already lose money as it is.

"I'm not so sure there is a national answer to the jockeys' insurance situation."

And Remi Bellocq, the executive director of that group, explains that The current law "is what allows us to go and get our fair share of purse dollars from handle, and the jockeys already share in that.”

The jockeys and the bill’s sponsors cite the risks that riders take every day, and point out that, in Rep. Whitfield’s words: ""There isn't any group, in my view, that is more important in racing than jockeys.....There's enough money in this industry to address this problem."." [Courier-Journal] With the bill in its infancy stages, this dispute is obviously just getting started. Of course, if all racetracks agreed to increase their coverage to $1 million, as many already have, and/or other states followed the lead of those like New York which already provide for coverage, the measure could become moot.

- A good deal of the testimony on Tuesday by the Jockeys’ Guild’s counsel Barry Broad dealt with the organization’s investigation into Wayne Gertmenain, and I’m surprised that the press didn’t really mention that at all. In fact, we just haven’t heard much lately about Dr. G, who has slinked back into what is apparently the safe haven of Pepperdine University, which still – STILL! – displays his discredited resume as fact on their website. You can read Broad’s written testimony to the Subcomittee here (click on ‘Mr. Barry Broad’ for the pdf file). Some of it we already know, but it bears repeating. Some of the highlights…..or perhaps, lowlights (or lowlife!) would be more appropriate:

- Dr. G told Senators on the day he was fired that the Guild had a $3.5 million “war chest,” though he knew that the assets were “nearly totally depleted.” Sounds like perjury to me.

- On that same day, he “caused more than $200,000 in checks to be issued to himself and Mr. Albert Fiss, leaving the Guild with just a few thousand dollars in the bank.”

- About $500,000 was “depleted” from jockeys’ savings accounts.

- Matrix Capital was paid “hundreds of thousands of dollars” even as Dr. G was collecting a full-time salary; this in addition to “tens of thousands” for consultants, who were “associates.” “We suspect that little of value was delivered by Matrix..”

- Certain Guild members were given free health insurance, or were allowed to remain on the plan despite missing payments, “apparently in order to curry internal political support.” “As a result, the amount of unpaid premiums reached a level of approximately $700,000.”

- Gertmenian charged the Guild for Matrix’ rent. “As if that weren’t enough, Matrix added a ‘maintenance fee’…..there is no evidence that any maintenance services were actually provided.”

There’s more, but as Broad said in closing, “I could go on and on, but I believe that you have the flavor of what occurred under the tenure of Dr. Gertmenian.” And it tastes pretty putrid.

Barron's Article a Freebie (For Now)

- My article and sidebar are both now avilable in the free content section of the Barron's website, at this time, anyway. Thanks to reader Thecalicocat for pointing that out to me. In fact, thanks go to him for hooking me up with them in the first place! He read the original piece that I sent in to them and, let's just say that I don't disagree with his assessment about its quality as compared to the final result. It was sure a different experience than just cranking out blog posts, that's for sure!

- The weather forecast is very bleak here as far as Highland Cat's turf debut tomorrow. The forecast calls for "soaking" rains. In fact, they're calling for rain for virtually the next week. I don't yet know what Bill Turner's intentions are if the race comes off the grass. As far as Christening goes, the race on Sunday at Delaware did not fill, so she stays in the barn for now. Expenses are piling up for both of these, and the first cash call isn't very far away.

- The Preakness field remains in flux, especially regarding Lawyer Ron. After declaring him as doubtful, Holthus now may run him if X-rays return negative.

"He's eating well and appears to have come out of the race well.....He didn't lose a lot of weight. He feels good. I think this is the best chance he's got of winning a (Triple Crown) race, even though Barbaro was very impressive." [NY Daily News]

Wayne Lukas says that Simon Pure is out ("I think [Barbaro] should scare a few horses away - me included.") Hemingway's Key is in for Nick Zito.

- A writer at NBC has lost his job over apparent plagiarism during the network's Derby coverage. A reader alerted the NY Times about striking similarities between the script narrated by Tom Hammond during the segment on Michael Matz' plane crash heroics, and one for an episode of The West Wing. If someone is going to copy something, you'd think he'd at least use a show from a different network!

The Derby script summed up the changed lives of Matz, Solis and Hendricks by saying that the "funny thing about life is that every time we think we've measured our capacity to meet its challenges, we're reminded that that capacity may well be limitless."

In "The West Wing," Bartlet said, "The streets of heaven are too crowded with angels, but every time we think we've measured our capacity to meet a challenge, we look up and we're reminded that that capacity may well be limitless." [NY Times]

Some people's capacity for stupidity sometimes seems limitless as well.

Wednesday Night Notes - May 10

- I swear, I was going to pick Fabulous Strike in the third at Belmont today. They’ve been running these minor stakes as the third race, and this was the Romano Gucci Stakes, with five three year olds going 6 ½. It was a nice little field, with the favored Laptop Computer, runner-up in the Lafayette, Marco’s Tale, an allowance winner since his futile try in the Wood, and Saint Daimon, who was the third choice in the Aventura, way back at the beginning of the Derby trail on Jan 7. He was so highly regarded after a couple fo wins at the Big A that he vaulted to #12 on Haskin’s Derby list. If he can handle two turns he will be a major force on the Derby trail. Working super. Could this be Allen Jerkens' year ?

OK, that’s a really cheap shot, I know. He did, in this same list dated Jan 3, have Barbaro as #7, before he’d been on the dirt.

Anyway, Fabulous Strike (Smart Strike) was the morning line longshot at 8-1, and I liked him, at least at that price. He had the highest Beyer in the field, though that was on a sloppy track at Philly Park, following a maiden win at Penn National. At post time, he was the solid second choice in the betting, at 3.30 to 1. Guess what, he was a pretty easy winner in a solid time of 1:14.95 for trainer Todd Beattie. This guy is sporting a record of 40 wins in 100 starts in 2006, an incredible 40%, mostly at Penn National. Most of those winners were less than 3-1; a good deal of those odds-on.

On Thursday, the feature reverts back to the usual 8th race, and it’s another stakes, the Mil Kilates, for older fillies and mares at a mile. This is the return to the races for Nothing But Fun (Dixie Union). You may remember this now four-year old filly; she won her first four starts last year, the last of those being the G2 Cotillion for three-year olds at Philly Park. That was the race that Angel Cordero ran up the track on Indian Vale as the 2-5 favorite.

From there, Nothing But Fun was sent to the Breeders Cup Distaff to take on the likes of Ashado, and she trailed winner Pleasant Home by 15 lengths. This is her first race since then, and she’s the 8-5 morning line choice. Trainer Mike Hushion is off to a quick start at Belmont and she could be bet even lower. But I think she’s no lock in her first race in over six months.

Darley’s Satin Kiss (Seeking the Gold) (4-1) made her U.S. debut a winning one at Tampa; she’d won stakes in Great Britain and Dubai. She’s a full sister to Lujain, a Grade 1 winner for Darley, and the stakes horse Botanical. She’ll have to improve on her 81 Beyer, and the stretch out could help; but she’s been off nearly three months since her Tampa race, which was itself after a seven month break. Dance Away Capote (Capote) (3-1) was going along well last summer, and was 8-1 in the Alabama, in which she ran a distant 5th. This is her first race since then.

I think all three of these could be overbet, as they all have questions about them. So I’m looking at a couple of the others.

No Sleep (Robyn Dancer) (9-2) climbed the allowance ladder for Gary Contessa on the inner track, and ran third in the G3 Next Move. That race was won by Fleet Indian, who subsequently freaked to a 112 Beyer in the Sixty Sails. It’s a question as to whether No Sleep is just an inner track horse, but there’s not much speed and she could benefit from a controlling trip from the outside post for Desormeaux.

Classy Charm (Silver Charm) (6-1) was far up the track on a sealed track at Keeneland in Pool Land’s rout in the Doubledogdare. Before that, she was third by nine to Oonagh Maccool. (Note that all three of the abovementioned monsters, Fleet Indian, Pool Land, and Oonagh Maccool, are trained by Pletcher.) But this filly clearly prefers one turn races; you have to go four back to find his last one, a good closing second at Gulfstream. And she had two good miles here last fall in restricted stakes company. Looks like a bit of a stretch I admit, but she should at least be running at the finish. You can’t guarantee that about the fillies expected to be the favorites.