Wednesday Night Notes - May 10

- I swear, I was going to pick Fabulous Strike in the third at Belmont today. They’ve been running these minor stakes as the third race, and this was the Romano Gucci Stakes, with five three year olds going 6 ½. It was a nice little field, with the favored Laptop Computer, runner-up in the Lafayette, Marco’s Tale, an allowance winner since his futile try in the Wood, and Saint Daimon, who was the third choice in the Aventura, way back at the beginning of the Derby trail on Jan 7. He was so highly regarded after a couple fo wins at the Big A that he vaulted to #12 on Haskin’s Derby list. If he can handle two turns he will be a major force on the Derby trail. Working super. Could this be Allen Jerkens' year ?

OK, that’s a really cheap shot, I know. He did, in this same list dated Jan 3, have Barbaro as #7, before he’d been on the dirt.

Anyway, Fabulous Strike (Smart Strike) was the morning line longshot at 8-1, and I liked him, at least at that price. He had the highest Beyer in the field, though that was on a sloppy track at Philly Park, following a maiden win at Penn National. At post time, he was the solid second choice in the betting, at 3.30 to 1. Guess what, he was a pretty easy winner in a solid time of 1:14.95 for trainer Todd Beattie. This guy is sporting a record of 40 wins in 100 starts in 2006, an incredible 40%, mostly at Penn National. Most of those winners were less than 3-1; a good deal of those odds-on.

On Thursday, the feature reverts back to the usual 8th race, and it’s another stakes, the Mil Kilates, for older fillies and mares at a mile. This is the return to the races for Nothing But Fun (Dixie Union). You may remember this now four-year old filly; she won her first four starts last year, the last of those being the G2 Cotillion for three-year olds at Philly Park. That was the race that Angel Cordero ran up the track on Indian Vale as the 2-5 favorite.

From there, Nothing But Fun was sent to the Breeders Cup Distaff to take on the likes of Ashado, and she trailed winner Pleasant Home by 15 lengths. This is her first race since then, and she’s the 8-5 morning line choice. Trainer Mike Hushion is off to a quick start at Belmont and she could be bet even lower. But I think she’s no lock in her first race in over six months.

Darley’s Satin Kiss (Seeking the Gold) (4-1) made her U.S. debut a winning one at Tampa; she’d won stakes in Great Britain and Dubai. She’s a full sister to Lujain, a Grade 1 winner for Darley, and the stakes horse Botanical. She’ll have to improve on her 81 Beyer, and the stretch out could help; but she’s been off nearly three months since her Tampa race, which was itself after a seven month break. Dance Away Capote (Capote) (3-1) was going along well last summer, and was 8-1 in the Alabama, in which she ran a distant 5th. This is her first race since then.

I think all three of these could be overbet, as they all have questions about them. So I’m looking at a couple of the others.

No Sleep (Robyn Dancer) (9-2) climbed the allowance ladder for Gary Contessa on the inner track, and ran third in the G3 Next Move. That race was won by Fleet Indian, who subsequently freaked to a 112 Beyer in the Sixty Sails. It’s a question as to whether No Sleep is just an inner track horse, but there’s not much speed and she could benefit from a controlling trip from the outside post for Desormeaux.

Classy Charm (Silver Charm) (6-1) was far up the track on a sealed track at Keeneland in Pool Land’s rout in the Doubledogdare. Before that, she was third by nine to Oonagh Maccool. (Note that all three of the abovementioned monsters, Fleet Indian, Pool Land, and Oonagh Maccool, are trained by Pletcher.) But this filly clearly prefers one turn races; you have to go four back to find his last one, a good closing second at Gulfstream. And she had two good miles here last fall in restricted stakes company. Looks like a bit of a stretch I admit, but she should at least be running at the finish. You can’t guarantee that about the fillies expected to be the favorites.