Hunch Bets - September 14

Sneaky Deeds 5th at Belmont
Stop Singing 2nd at Charles Town
Price Is A Bargain 2nd at Calder
Un Real Deal 3rd at Fairmount
He's Better 1st at Penn Nat

They're Off In The Senate

- The State Senate conducted their first hearing on Spitzer's NYRA proposal, and a lot of what we read in the papers today really could have been written last week. That particular House of the legislature is the last corner of state government still controlled by Republicans, if just barely, and given the current tensions in Albany, it's little surprise that they expressed skepticism over the plan, complaining that they weren't consulted and that it was put together hastily.

I think that, at this point, if Spitzer came out and said he was now against any campaign reform and that special interest money (like that which he received from the franchise bidders) is good, Joe Bruno would then put on the Governor's corruption buster helmet and launch investigations of himself. So while I'm not alarmed to hear Bruno say “I can tell you now that what the governor submitted is not going to be the final product,” for him to say that it's “not appropriate” to deny other bidders a portion of the franchise is just patently absurd.

He speaks as if they have some kind of guaranteed right to get a piece of the action solely by virtue of having made a bid. I mean, what if the Friends of Barbaro lunatics threw their lobotomies into the ring and proposed to turn Saratoga into a dead horse shrine? “Just to sort of leave everyone by the wayside I’m not sure is appropriate....What we need is imagination, creativity, innovation." [Bloodhorse] Well, I'll tell you what Joe; if any of the other bidders had shown any of those things - aside from giant signs on buildings, helmet-cams and horse parks in Saratoga - perhaps they would have gotten the franchise!

And why does he keep mentioning Magna and Churchill, as he was again reported to have done in the Saratogian? What makes him so beholden to those companies, especially now that his buddy Jared Abbruzzese is no longer connected (or so we're told) to Empire? Bruno is supposed to be a racing guy, so what could he possibly see in a company that is desperately selling its racing properties to cover for its gaffes? It's like Canada thinking of having George W. Bush come to run their foreign policy! I just don't get that. And to think, I wrote not long ago that it might be a good thing to have Bruno in the room where the decision will be made; now I'm thinking that it's time for him to do the perp walk.

In response to that nonsense, Charlie Hayward told the Saratogian, correctly I believe:

"It is not in the interest of out-of-state racetrack operators, who are NYRA's competitors, to preserve and enhance the preeminence of New York racing. Their for-profit structure will result in more revenue leaving New York for Kentucky and Toronto, and less revenue being reinvested into purses and breeder awards for New York horsemen."

And indeed, revenue leaving NY and going to TrackNet Media among others is written in black and white, right there in Empire's bid. So, why the counsel to the committee chairman would assert that all of the bidders are still in the running is just beyond me, and, as related specifically to Empire (and even though I don't believe it for a second), makes me wanna puke.

- The NY Post reports that the Weightgate case is not going well for the prosecution...at least according to one of the defense attorneys.

"The way the evidence has unfolded, we feel the prosecution is in serious, serious trouble at this point," [Mario] Sclafani's attorney, Todd Greenberg, told The Post yesterday. "The videos that were shown (by prosecution) have established everything the defense has been saying: That the methodology used (by investigators) was terribly flawed and inaccurate." [NY Post]

- The Green Monkey is entered in the 4th at Belmont on Saturday. Judging from the interest I'm seeing and hearing about this longest of long-awaited debuts, you might want to head down to the paddock now. Looks like just another high-priced horse debuting for a trainer who's 1 for his last 34 with his first-timers in NY to me!

Taking Del Mar Form to the Bank (Or Lack Thereof)

- Del Mar's first Polymeet is over, but the ramifications go on for the horses that ran on it; and for us horseplayers trying to figure out what the form there will mean at other tracks. We've heard from time to time some talk about more subtle injuries than the ones that make the news and which comprise the fatality statistics. Steve Davidowitz, writing in the subscription-only DRF Plus section of the Form, reports that while some trainers were effusive in their praise for the new surface,

Other trainers also reported that many horses incurred minor back injures and hindquarter problems, in part because of the way the shallow, powdery upper crust of the synthetic surface gave way under the weight of Thoroughbreds kicking forward for traction with their hind legs.

Some Del Mar officials conceded privately that the complaints had merit, and the track's president, Joe Harper, publicly admitted that an evaluation of Polytrack has begun for the express purpose of implementing changes that will improve things for 2008. [DRF]

Davidowitz feels that the demanding nature of the surface may give these horses a conditioning edge, and writes that he will treat Polytrack races as having contributed to a horse's overall conditioning while disregarding actual finishing positions when comparing one horse against another.

Now here's another theory about the track that I found extremely interesting and wanted to throw out there for your consideration. This comes from ViewFromVegas, a forum site established by Dave Tuley, whose columns from Las Vegas for the Daily Racing Form you may recall. The poster goes under the name Crick, and he's just not any forum poster; he's a good buddy of our good buddy Walter and comes highly recommended. And, whether you agree with his theory or not, I think you'll at least certainly find it quite thoughtful and worthy of discussion, and I'd be interested if anyone has any thoughts.

Crick contends that for whatever reason, perhaps because a conventional drainage system is not necessary on Polytrack, the main track at Del Mar was not constructed with the usual banks, or inclines that you see elsewhere. That would make it more strenuous for a thoroughbred to maintain his path when negotiating the turns. So while the general wisdom was to blame the surface for the meet's various ills, contending that it became tiring as the sun beat down on it in the afternoon, Crick has another theory.

ALMOST everybody blamed the surface for (a) speed not carrying well routing, even though it carried well sprinting (b) fast work times in the morning, but much slower times in the afternoon (c) horses flattening out in the stretch.

..Let's look closer at these 3 factors, with a flat track in mind. (a) speed horses had to work extra hard around the turns, with no help from the track, they had to work doubly hard running through turns. Some horse[s] could do it negotiating one turn...most horses couldn't do it negotiating 2 turns..

(b) The workouts at DM start to get timed at the 1 1/4 [chute]. If you look at a layout of the track, this is the long straightaway that leads to the home stretch. The times were more a product of "where" they were working, than "how" they were working. Most, if not all, of the workouts were being done in a straight line.

(c) Trevor Denman is the best in the business at finding the winner of a race early. He missed more this meet than the rest of his career combined. It is because unless a horse was extremely fit, and it helped if he was a left-sided runner, negotiating the turn took so much out of them, they flattened in the stretch even though it appeared they were making a menacing move around the turn. Martin Garcia figured that out the 2nd half of the meet, and was the best jockey during that time. Yes, the polytrack was a slower surface. Yes, it required a great deal of stamina to be successful over it. It was also the fairest surface I've seen, the bigger bias IMO was the physical structure of the track, and not the surface itself. [ViewFromVegas.com]

So, he has some suggestions on what kind of horses to follow that I'll leave to you to read in detail at the above link (it's in three parts) rather than re-printing the whole thing here.

The Head Chef Stable

- The Head Chef wants her own virtual stable after I read her Jim L's comment and we both realized that Stunt Man, the upset winner of the More Than Ready stakes, was the horse that she spotted Pletcher checking out intently in the paddock at Saratoga. I barely even noticed anyone besides Tiz Wonderful and EZ Warrior when looking at the race, and didn't make the connection at all. $25.20, oh man. She was pretty disappointed with me. So I'm setting her up for email notification. She wants to know if she can name the stable (The Head Chef Stable?) and get colors. So far, it's a three horse barn - Stunt Man, Auto City, who she picked out at the paddock at Saratoga (even though she thought it was the next race), and Jade Queen, who she had up there last year at 9-1.

You might recall that after that race, Jade Queen ran a nice third in the Garden City and an even nice one against older horses in the Flower Bowl. She looked like another potential star for Pletcher, but she's been a disappointment at four in three very well-bet attempts.

The Toddster had a first-timer in a two-year NY-bred race that got beat at 7-10 on in the 2nd on Wednesday. This thing with him not doing well with his two-year olds has gone from a curiosity to a trend...at least in New York, anyway. He actually won with four out of his first six debuting juveniles at the spring meet at Belmont; it looked like it was business as usual. But since then, in a remarkable reversal, he's 1-for-34 here (he had two winners at Arlington). And the bettors, who saw three straight of these lose at 2-5 towards the beginning of the streak (The Leopard, Return to Paradise, and Moroccan Affair, who hasn't been seen since), seem to have adjusted. But not on Wednesday.

In the old days, In P.A.'s Honour would have blown by Giant Moon after stalking him on the lead. But right now, Richard Schosberg is the hot trainer, and Giant Moon wasn't getting caught; he scampered home in 11.94 in a decisive win at 8-1. He's by Giant's Causeway out of a NY-bred Capote mare who won a stakes at Finger Lakes. So owner/breeder Albert Fried, Jr. ponied up the big money for a prominent Kentucky stallion.

Back to the feature, E Z Warrior was 4-5 despite stretching out to a mile, and had no excuse at all this time, other than that he probably isn't suited for the distance. I really just don't understand what Zayat/Baffert had in mind with him this year from the moment I saw him entered in the Bing Crosby. E Z Warrior set a rather moderate pace to the half mile, and surrendered meekly to 8-5 Tiz Wonderful turning for home.

But while everyone was watching those two, anyone paying attention to Stunt Man must have felt pretty good. Castellano looked like he had a ton of horse, and it was with total ease with which he circled the other two rounding the turn. He was past Tiz Wonderful almost immediately after entering the stretch, and Durkin almost fell out of the booth, calling him "the most unlikeliest of winners!" Yes, he was trying open company, but he was in good form for Contessa. It's only because of his overhyped rivals that it would seem like such an upset. And I'd guess that the Toddster wasn't the least bit surprised.

Empire Wants A Refund

- I have a new post up at the Breeders' Cup site regarding last Saturday's stakes at Belmont. And it's Breeders' Cup, always with the apostrophe....and NEVER 'BC'! And I'm told that the site will begin accepting moderated questions at some point soon....though feel free to comment here. Going forward, most of my comments on any races that are considered to be BC Breeders' Cup preps will take place over there.

Also, the New York State Senate is conducting their committee hearing on Spitzer's franchise proposal today. Thanks to reader Late Scratch for attempting to post that link to the live video. That just doesn't seem to work in the Blogger comment section. The working link is here.

Empire Racing just refuses to slink away quietly. The New York Times reports today that the group is threatening to sue Thacher Associates with respect to the report that the investigative firm did on Empire's transformation from Friends of New York for the state's Integrity Report. Empire claims there was a conflict of interest because one of Thacher's staff members worked at Getnick and Getnick from 2002-2005; that partly covers the period during which Getnick served as NYRA's federal monitor. Empire basically wants their money back - they paid for the $1.1 million cost of the review. In addition to this supposed conflict, Perlee claims that the report contained more than a dozen factual errors.

“Only in the section on Empire were readers treated to unchecked facts, competitors’ gossip and opinions passing as definitive information and editorial conclusions that are properly the province of the governor and legislative leaders,” he wrote. [NYT]

Empire has spoken of errors and omissions in the report before, and we'd certainly love to hear from them to find out exactly what they are.

For his part, Thomas D. Thacher II denied that the presence of the employee constituted a conflict.

“Mark Malone came to work for Thacher Associates well before there was any engagement by the inspector general to do the integrity review.."

He also said Mr. Malone’s past work for Getnick & Getnick could not constitute a conflict because during the monitoring period, the law firm reported to law enforcement and court officials and the state comptroller, not to the racing association.

Indeed, compared to the myriad of conflicts that we've seen on the part of the bidders and the governor himself, this certainly seems rather mild. However, the Inspector General did, “in the interest of fairness,” issue a revised version of Thacher's report (in addition to revisions of some sections dealing with other bidders).

That revised report is now available on the Inspector General's website (large PDF document)...and an accompanying document advises us that there have been revisions throughout Thacher's report. This document has replaced the original one, so I can't do a line by line comparison. But I invite you to read it (it runs from pages 62-74) and compare it my original post on the report. I'm not going to repeat all of the main points here, but I think you'll find that many if not most of the damaging claims remain intact.

One change I did notice though is the deletion of the snide original concluding remark, which referred to a supposed quote by Tim Smith that he won't be the fall guy, and said: 'In time it may become clear what Smith was talking about.' Instead, the report concludes thusly:

It is important to note that many of the individuals interviewed in connection with TA's investigation into the history of FNYR and the formation of Empire have a vested interest in assuring that Empire is not awarded the NY racing franchise. However, our findings indicate that, if no other definitive conclusions can be reached regarding the true genesis of Empire, it appears clear that Tim Smith was, contrary to his and Empire's published denials, a critical part of the company's formation. Why Smith and Empire chose to mask Smith's involvement in the venture remains unclear.

Separated at Birth?

Part III

























Well, OK, maybe not quite. But that they're both cheaters seems pretty clear.

Being a Jets fan, I'm not exactly objective here....but don't you think that a forfeit would make them think twice about doing it again? A loss of draft picks for a team that many expect to go far this year may be about as effective as the sham suspensions we have in racing.

Yearling Buyers Adjust

- Some more anecdotal evidence of Poytrack having an effect at the Keeneland sale. Maryjean Wall, writing for the Lexington Herald-Reader, asked Bob Baffert and Nick Zito if they're taking a different approach.

"I am looking for a different kind of horse. I'm starting to look for a horse with a little more turf influence," Baffert said yesterday at Keeneland. "I'm looking for horses that have a little more stamina."

Ditto for Zito.

He was covering all bases when he paid $350,000 for a son of Smarty Jones out of Carly's Crown, buying the colt for My MeadowView Farms.

"I'd say this family can run on dirt or grass," said Zito. And in the new order imposed by synthetic surfaces, "You have to approach it that way," he explained. [Lexington Herald Reader]

I imagine that some people are saying 'see, it's starting already!' They speak as if the breeders that own the currently fashionable sires have some inherent right to guaranteed future success. We hear about the millions they have invested in them. But stallions are assets, and assets go up and down, just like the stock market or real estate. That's business, and, though I'm certainly not unsympathetic and I wish them all success, I don't see why breeders would warrant any special protection from business cycles. The successful breeders are the ones that can anticipate; that can pick out the first-year sires that will be fashionable in two years, or the $10,000 bargain that can produce fast horses to race. Fashions change, and if it wasn't Polytrack, it could have been something else, and the top breeders, I'm sure, will adjust. That's why they're the top breeders.

It's quite possible that in ten years, Polytrack will have become an obsolete joke, like Smell-o-vision. In the meantime, perhaps it will indeed cause a shift to a more sturdy breed. I've yet to hear anyone tell me what would be bad about that.

News and Notes - September 11

- The first post over at the Breeders' Cup site is up now. Thanks so much again for all of the nice feedback and well wishes....and again, thanks to all of you for stopping by. No, I don't believe I can negotiate passes for all of you at this point, but I'll keep that in mind for the future. And yes, the admission, parking, and seating prices are obscene....but I think I'll limit my bitching about that to here... I find it strange to see my name up in lights like that, and being rather shy, I can understand why some people - like Tom Ainslie for example - use different names for their public persona....and why some probably wish they had.

- Here's an odd one. A judge in British Columbia has thus far refused to throw out a lawsuit filed by a bettor against Hastings Racecourse. Seems that Elmer Patzer fed a bunch of betting slips into an Autotote self-service machine there three years ago, and got back a credit voucher in the amount of $6.5 million; a lot of money even in Canadian currency! The track claims that it was a computer error, and that the win was physically impossible because there would not be enough money in a pool at the racetrack to allow for a payout that big. [Vancouver Sun] For example, according to the charts on BRIS, the total handle for Sunday's entire ten-race card was around $300,000. Patzer claims that out of the 20-25 tickets he fed into the machine, four or five were winners. Still, there seems no way he could have won that much at that track. So, while the judge went through what seems to be the formality of ordering the track to produce records and surveillance tapes, I'd say that Patzer's chances rank about 6.5 million to 1. Makes you again wonder about the integrity of the wagering system though.

Speaking of frivolous court cases, a second trial in the matter of jockey overweights in New York began in Saratoga last week. The first proceeding against former NYRA weight clerks Braulio Baeza and Mario Sclafani was halted because a juror wrote a letter to the press complaining that the charges amounted to nothing more than "political grandstanding." And that's because the case is indeed nothing more than that. Then-attorney general and noted corruption-buster (except when it comes to his own staff) Eliot Spitzer decided to re-try the pair, victims of an overzealous NYRA at a time when the pressure was on to show that it was reformed. Bill Finley, writing on ESPN.com last week, noted that the case against them is so flawed it will eventually be thrown out of court; and called for NYRA to rehire them with back pay.

Finley himself would make an excellent witness for the defense. In this column from September, 2005, he noted the incongruities in the state's case based on riders making weight out-of-state within one or two days of races they were supposedly grossly overweight for in New York. Ridiculous.

- And slightly off-topic are the accusations that the New England Patriots illegally taped the defensive signals of the Jets in Sunday's game...well, I guess the topic of cheating is never off-topic in racing, or any sport so it seems this day. I'm reminded a bit of my story about Ernie Cobb and the Boston College point-shaving scandal. I was at the game on Sunday, and the Pats sure seemed to have a handle on the Jets offense. This was mostly, I'd admit, because the Pats are a much better team. But there was one play in particular that my brother and I noticed and commented on at the time. The Jets had tried to blitz the Pats without much success in last year's playoff game, and it was obvious they were trying a different tack this time, often rushing just three linemen. But finally, on one play in the third quarter, the Jets sent defensive backs and linebackers in on an all-out blitz. Tom Brady merely took a step back and dumped a short pass over the oncoming rush....as if, as we discussed at that very time, he knew exactly what was coming. The play really stood out to me at the time, and it will be interesting to see if it is cited if and when the NFL conducts a full investigation.

Handicapping From the Bottom Up

- We learned over the weekend that Tom Ainslie recently died at the age of 89. His Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing is the first handicapping book I remember reading, and I'm sure the same is true for many of you. Andy Beyer told the Form:

"He was the first person to really write literately and intelligently about handicapping, and he showed the publishing world that there was a market for thoughtful books on the subject."

I had already learned the basics when I first read the book, so I'm not going to say I learned everything I know from it. Some of his principles I've incorporated into my handicapping to this day; probably many more than I now realize after all this time. A couple I specifically recall are looking for a workout of at least five furlongs in the last seven days for horses coming off a layoff; and the last race easy, previous race good factor.

It was Ainslie who introduced to me the idea of watching the win pool in relation to the place and show pools (I only watch the latter); over the years, that has proven to be certainly the most consistent way in which I've successfully identified live horses on the tote. And it was also he that prompted what was the most significant change in my approach to handicapping in my not-so-illustrious horseplaying career.

And that was to handicap from the bottom up. I used to look at the most recent race first and then go down towards the oldest ones. I don't believe he wrote about this in the Complete Guide, but I distinctly remember that it was Ainslie who convinced me to start with the most long-ago race and move forward. That way, he said, you get a sense of the history and progression of the horse and obtain a better perspective with which to attempt to project what it will do today. It was such a simple and logical suggestion, but a totally radical change from what I was used to. It took some getting used to, but since reading that I have never handicapped a horse any other way. Now it's only right and natural; when I'm really focused I try to put myself in the owner/trainer's head, follow the logic of the horse's placement in each successive race, and try and figure out what they have in mind for the current one. Do you guys all handicap this way?

- EZ Warrior and Tiz Wonderful turn up in the More Than Ready stakes for three-year olds at Belmont on Wednesday. Baffert's colt has had a tough return to the races this year. Yes, he's had trouble at the start both times, but it seems as if he's been placed extremely ambitiously (but was nonetheless made the 7-2 favorite against older horses in the G1 Crosby). Though he finds a softer spot, he stretches out to a mile. Not sure what they've had in mind with him this year to be honest. Tiz Wonderful also returned in an impossible spot, and was actually 9-2 against Street Sense in the Jim Dandy. (Well, he did show a win against Any Given Saturday in his last race at two.) He checked out after being wide both turns, and should acquit himself better on Wednesday. Not much of a betting race, but an interesting matchup between two horses trying to recapture their juvenile form.

A.P. Poly

- Sounds like synthetic surfaces are starting to become a factor at the big yearling sales. Today's the first day of the September Keeneland Marathon, and the early returns feature - surprise - the usual suspects. As of this writing, the Sheikh and Coolmore have led the way by spending $2.4 and $2 million respectively for two sons of AP Indy. (Well, until a half-brother to Pulpit, by Dynaformer, went to the Sheikh for $2.9 million.) And interestingly, John Ferguson, representing the Sheikh of Dubai, had this to say about his purchase, out of a Group 1 winning Storm Cat mare:

"Quite honestly, a horse like that by A.P. Indy with an outstanding mare in Denebola, who not only was a great mare but the fact that she won the Marcel Boussac (Fr-I) in France on the grass. You know with this advent of Polytrack, I think in the past you were maybe looking at A.P. Indy with an all-dirt pedigree. I think, now an A.P. Indy with turf on the bottom won’t do any harm.” [Bloodhorse]

Ferguson added that the colt will stay in the U.S. And while his English may be a bit mangled here, it seems as if his point is that an AP Indy with grass in his distaff pedigree may be more attractive than in the past due to opportunities to race on Polytrack in the U.S. I know that some breeders talk as if they're going to go out of business tomorrow because of the synthetic stuff; but any change will certainly be a gradual one and, as in this case, not necessarily to their detriment.

If it floats your boat, you can actually watch and hear the proceedings live on the Keeneland site here.

Whatsinaname?

- Former NYRA executive Bill Nader has already made an impact at his new gig as the executive director of racing of the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Sha Tin racecourse opened over the weekend to a crowd of 63,000, the largest opening day attendance there in ten years. HKJC chief executive Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges said:

"Our customers really appreciated the novelty of the trainers race at the start of the day and I must give full credit to Bill Nader --- this was his idea and it really worked." [racing.scmp.com]

Some 38,000 fans showed up a half hour before post time to watch the Trainers Ride For Charity, as seven conditioners saddled up and competed in a 800 meter dash down the straightaway. I guess they really love their racing in Hong Kong. This of course begs the question of why Nader didn't try that here. I'm sure that it wouldn't have attracted 1/10th of the crowd it did there (a figure that would exceed a typical weekday at Belmont or Aqueduct). But I for one certainly would have shown up a little early to see Bill Mott duking it out on horseback with Baffert and Contessa and Dutrow, and HERE COMES THE TODDSTER ON THE FAR OUTSIDE!!

You think they would have had to spend the prior six hours in the detention barn?

- I was interested to read an explanation of one of the more incongruous horse names one will ever see....at least for a talented three-year old colt who still has all of his equipment intact. Always A Virgin, who took last week's Cane Pace, the first leg of harness racing's Triple Crown for pacers, at Freehold Raceway, will almost certainly not be one at this time next year; especially should he sweep the series by taking the Little Brown Jug (for which he's 3-5 in the Jug futures pool), and the Messenger Stakes at Yonkers. The money may not be quite the same, and I don't believe that the Sheikh is interested in pacers (yet), but the harness set's top three-year olds rarely come back to race at four either. The reason for the name is actually disappointingly simple - the son of the champion pacer Western Ideal is out of the mare Neverhaveneverwill....who obviously has and will again.

Breeders' Cup Blogging

- So, here's a little announcement I have to make, which will partly explain my absence for the last 48 hours or so. I'm happy to inform you that the folks at the Breeders' Cup have shown the good taste to hire yours truly to blog on their site. I've actually known about this for awhile, but waited until now to announce it here. Honestly, I've been more than a little nervous about it, and didn't want to make a big deal only for them to see my first post and tell me to take a hike. However, that initial entry should be up at some point soon (I'll provide a direct link as soon as I get it); and I expect to do a couple of posts a week there, and then more during the week of the event. In addition, I'll be getting press credentials for the races and plan to blog extensively about the whole experience right here. I've been assured that I'm free to say what's on my mind there (within reason, of course), and I think you'll find that my first post is evidence that I'm not expected to merely tow the company line.

So, they'll be a couple of changes here at LATG. For one thing, going commercial always involves some sacrifice - call it 'selling out' if you wish - so don't expect to see me writing about the Breeders' Cup or their executives and trustees in the same terms that I occasionally have for, say.....Empire Racing. And secondly, a lot of the Breeders' Cup-related material that I would normally post here will instead appear there. But that still leaves a lot to discuss, and I intend to continue my writing here on a regular basis.

As usual, I'd like to thank all of you, my dear readers, for visiting and coming back on a regular basis. They contacted me to write for them, and that obviously wouldn't have happened without those of you who have helped the web stats grow.

And I want to thank my talented colleagues of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance (the TBA) for their continued gracious support and encouragement. As usual, I urge you to check them all out, and the links to each are listed in the right sidebar. And after you're done with that, please come back as my regularly scheduled posting will resume shortly.

Saturday Morning Notes - Sept 8

- Wanted to clarify my recent post about the final total of fatal breakdowns during the Del Mar meeting. Those figures, six this year as opposed to 14 last year, were for the Polytrack only. There were four additional deaths on the grass each year, all during races according to Hank Wesch of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The totals, while better than last year, are certainly not insignificant, especially when you look at the safety record at Saratoga, where there were two at the recently concluded meet to the best of my knowledge.

However, there unfortunately has already been one fatality at the Belmont meeting; Find the Chestnut was euthanized on the track after the third race on opening day, and tough luck Joe Bravo suffered yet another injury - and another broken collarbone - as a result of the incident.

And there were also those complaints by the NY horsemen regarding the condition of all the New York tracks in the morning due to their being frequently sealed at night. We're waiting to hear what the resolution of that will be.

- Not long after floating the suggestion that Aqueduct be sold off and closed entirely, Governor Spitzer has now taken a fairly hard line against VLT's at Belmont, this according to Newsday.

"The State Legislature made it quite clear that they didn't want to expand the VLTs to Belmont Park," he said. "And while the door remains open in the long-term future, that does not appear to be any time soon."

As long as we have to have these things, I can't think of a better locale for slots than at Belmont. A typical crowd of only 4,386 showed up for opening day, and I've written many times of how the enormous plant seems so deserted and depressing with even twice, three times that amount. They could take half of the grandstand, lay down some carpets, stick in some machines and easily have the revenues flowing by the spring meeting, and the reduced space for racing fans would serve the place well. The only day that the entire grandstand is needed is Belmont day, and recently, a reader reasonably suggested that the infield could be set up to handle that overflow.

- Senator Bruno told his favorite newspaper that he paid for the flights provided for him by Jared Abbruzzese. But that's not the point according to the lobbying commission, at least as far as the latter goes.

The commission investigators found that Abbruzzese intended to provide the flights at no cost to the public officials, even though Bruno may eventually have paid for them from his campaign fund. [Albany Times Union]

- The reduced takeout on Ellis Park's Pick Four resulted in an increase in the average daily handle for that bet from $19,000 to $40,000. But the total handle dropped by 15%. Owner Ron Geary agreed to use TrackNet Media as part of his purchase agreement with Churchill. That obviously didn't work out given that group's dispute with TVG that left Ellis missing from that network and from Youbet. Geary said that he can renew with TrackNet for up to six years under the contract, and that he hasn't made a decision yet regarding next year. [Louisville Courier-Journal]

- Richard Schosberg and Linda Rice continued their roll with wins on opening day, albeit both at short prices; and Gary Sciacca added a second place finish in the finale to his third straight longshot bomb in the first. Sorry to disappoint you who have been coming here to find horses to throw out, but I didn't have time to do any picks for Saturday's card. But just so that you don't go away too disappointed, I'll mention that I think that Rutherienne will be severely tested from a bad post in the Garden City (so feel free to go ahead and single her). Besides a couple of tough domestic runners in Sharp Susan and Valbenny insider of her, there are three extremely sharp Euro runners. The most interesting to me of that trio is the rail filly Missvinski, coming off a game second to Darjina in the Group 1 Prix d'Astarte. This daughter of Stravinsky was purchased for a mere $8,000 as a weanling at Keeneland November in 2004, and has earned over $200,000 while winning four of ten starts in Europe. Her second in the Prix d'Astarte earned her a career best Racing Post Rating, which the Form is now using instead of the Timeform rating. So I guess you can throw that 12-14 point rule in comparing the Euro ratings to Beyers out the window. In any event, enjoy the races and have a great day.

Bruno Friend No Friend of Lobbying Committee

- The New York State lobbying commission concluded that Jared Abbruzzese violated the lobbying law by arranging $34,100 in private flights for Senator Bruno in 2005 and 2006, without making any accusations against the latter. [Albany Times Union]

Abbruzzese faces up to $250,000 in penalties for just offering the plane rides -- considered illegal gifts because they are valued at $75 or more. His lawyer said the case is full of holes, especially since Abbruzzese is not a lobbyist subject to the ban on gifts to public officials.

But the commission unanimously thinks that it's Abbruzzeses's case which is full of holes. He was a director of Friends of New York Racing at the time of the flights, and that group was a registered as a lobbying entity at that time.

According to testimony collected by the commission from the group’s former president, Mr. Abbruzzese arranged meetings with Mr. Bruno, a friend and fellow thoroughbred enthusiast, and gave officials political advice about dealing with the senator. Because of those actions, according to the commission, Mr. Abbruzzese was effectively a lobbyist, though he has never registered as one and has resisted a subpoena from the commission, arguing in state court that he does not fall under its jurisdiction. [New York Times]

The case is now being referred to a new committee, the Commission on Public Integrity, which the present lobbying commission is being folded into, and which will contain many of the same members. That new panel will decide if it will pursue the matter further, and whether to try and force Abbruzzese to produce records and testify. An appellate court has already denied his attempt to quash any subpoena, and commission members said that the Court of Appeals often doesn't take up unanimous decisions from the appellate division as in this case.

I would like to set the record straight here - I wrote yesterday that some of the flights in question occurred when Abbruzzese was a director of Empire, but that was incorrect. The latest flights being examined took place in January, 2006. Friends disbanded in February, and Empire was formed the next month. Of course, some of us believe that there was in reality little distinction between the two. In checking my erroneous facts, I came upon a Feb, 2006 article from Bloodhorse that reported on Friends' disbanding. And it reported:

[Tim] Smith said some of [the] members now "have different priorities" with the bidding process becoming more formalized.
......
"When the RFP process starts in earnest, the same set of players that funded our work are moving on to other things," Smith said. "We just reached the end of our funding and the end of our main mission." [Bloodhorse]

That, of course, was a bunch of crap. For those affiliated with Friends who then became involved in the franchise bidding - Magna, Churchill, Woodbine, Scientific Games, as well as Smith himself, Abbruzzese, Dennis Brida, Richard Bromze, and Jeff Perlee - "moving on to other things" meant joining together to form Empire Racing, which formulated a for-profit bid along the lines of what was recommended by Friends.

- They're off at Belmont, and do you mind if I complain - just a little - yet again? I'm in this streak of running second to longshots, and it happened again in the daily double. I bet a cold double with favored Tactical Gold in the first with Lukas' first-timer Silver Edition in the second. The former, sent off at 4-5, got beat by 20-1 Wood Winner, who he tried to savage according to the chart. Lukas' horse paid $16 in defeating the heavily favored Immortal Eyes - .25 to 1!! - and the will pay on my double was $41, damn. Wood Winner is trained by Gary Sciacca, and the hot trainer trend continues; Sciacca, after starting out 1 for 33 at Saratoga, had two longshot winners upstate in the last three days of the meeting. The Belmont meeting is certainly off to an ominous start for chalk players with these two heavily bet favorites going down to defeat.

Belmont Opens

- In the opener of Belmont's fall meeting, note that Chameleon is making his second start in four days, and 4th in less than three weeks. None of them have been particularly successful, and I don't really expect that this will be much different. Maybe trainer David Jacobson, having been away from the game for 25 years, isn't aware that you don't run horses like this anymore. Tactical Gold is the 5-2 morning line favorite, and I think that would be an extremely fair price. He looks as if he could be a suspicious dropdown running for a 25K tag after missing by just a nose in 35K company, and having been claimed for that price three races back. But since that claim, he earned $6,000 running third, $9,000 from that second place finish, and would make another $24,000 with a win here. Add that to the $25,000 I expect he'll be claimed for, and I think owner Larry Carter will have done pretty darn well.

Two-year olds in the second, and look who's still hanging around the east coast. Bob Baffert, who won with all three of his juvenile first-timers at Saratoga (including Maimonides, out of BC consideration with sore shins), starts Massive Drama for Zayat Stables. Like the others, he sure didn't seem to dislike the Polytrack during the morning hours. This one is by the rookie sire Kafwain (Cherokee Run), standing at Darley for $10,000. This stallion is off to a nice start with six winners, and two stakes winners. Massive Drama, purchased by Zayat for $485,000 last year, and he must have looked really nice because there ain't much on the catalog page. But Kent D. takes the mount, and we obviously ignore at our own risk.

In the third, One in a Romp has come on for Allen Jerkens with two strong closes, including a ridiculous eight wide sweep to run second two back. But the real reason I mention him is because the DRF pp's I printed out on Thursday show that this horse worked three furlongs that very morning. And it really struck me that you almost never see horses work a day before the race anymore. Really, do you ever see that? Used to be not that uncommon at all, and I remember being able to look them up somewhere at the track on race day, perhaps in the track program, I don't quite remember.

Another workout pattern you rarely see anymore - though I think more often than works the day before the race - is to see them on consecutive days. Me and my racetrack crew back in the day would always bet on Angel Penna Sr. when one of his horses worked that way. That was a solid angle as I recall. Anyway, Richard Schosberg has the ML fave in that 3rd race with Papa's Kara, and it will be interesting to see if barns that were hot upstate carry that form over here. Schosberg finished the meet with six winners in 27 starts, plus another 13 in the money for an ITM percentage of 70%.

If it sounds like Saratoga thus far, the 5th is a $10K claimer, so welcome back to Elmont. Several in here are dropping sharply, not only from their recent races but from their claim price as well. But the latter does not apply to Archie Boy. Like the aforementioned Tactical Gold, this one earned some minor awards after being claimed, and drops from 20K company. But he's merely dropping to the price at which he was claimed. He's actually raced quite well against better, and I think he'd be a bargain at his 6-1 morning line for Leah Gyamarti, who had a nice finish upstate with a couple of wins and two more ITM in the last two weeks.

Linda Rice, the hottest trainer of all in the last week or so upstate, has Meriwether Jessica in the 6th, a baby race for NY-breds. This daughter of the $10,000 sire Freud sold for $95,000 earlier this year, and is listed as the 5-2 choice. Though all of her winners during her six race win streak were on the grass, she did have a first-timer win on the dirt earlier in the meet; and today's rider Corny V was on board for seven of her 13 wins at the Spa. Cherekovsky (Mayakowsky) was entered and scratched on Aug 30, and then worked a solid three furlongs at Monmouth on 9/2. She shows up here with Desormeaux, who's won two out of his seven engagements for trainer Carl Deville.

That's all I got....good luck if you're playing opening day.

Bruno Probes, Gets Probed

- Matt Hegarty reports in the Form that support in the State Assembly for Governor Spitzer's NYRA recommendation seems assured with an unqualified endorsement by Speaker Sheldon Silver.

"I support Gov. Spitzer's determination that, with strengthened oversight, a reinvigorated and reconstituted New York Racing Association is the best option for the future of the state's Thoroughbred racing franchise." [DRF]

Of course, the Republican controlled Senate is where the opposition will come from, and a committee meeting is scheduled for Sept 12. However, though Senator Bruno's initial reaction was skeptical, I found it interesting that he told Tom Precious, reporting for Bloodhorse.com:

“[NYRA] worked with a model that doesn’t work. So, I don’t want to be critical of the people who run NYRA because this goes back over the years.."

“I think they have done a lot of good things and they deserve recognition for that,....The question is what role does everybody play. I think NYRA has to play a role, and a major role, of what goes on.’’

As Precious notes, Bruno has spoken of others playing a role as well, and he also said in the interview, which took place on Sept 4:

“We’ve got some of the major players in the whole world taking an interest,’’ he said Sept. 4, noting that among them are Magna Entertainment, Churchill Downs, and Woodbine.

C'mon Joe, you can't be serious about Magna! Frankie's folly is wearing their failure on their sleeve these days, announcing their intent to sell two more racetracks yesterday.

In any event, reading today's state capitol report in the New York Times, one wonders how the legislators will ever get around to seriously addressing this issue before the end of the year. The atmosphere in Albany is so acrimonious that a date for legislators to return to Albany has not yet been set, slipping from September to October to “to be announced.” And once they do, there are obviously more pressing matters to be attended to first.

Some Senate Republicans are in town however to start their myriad of inquiries related to the governor. One such Committee (with a long name) is to question Inspector General Kristine Hamann today. Ms. Hamann, as you may recall, did quite a thorough job with her integrity report on the franchise bidders. But her investigation of the Troopergate affair? Er, not so much. In fact, she simply dropped it when she found that her direct supervisor, the secretary to the governor Richard Baum, was involved. Republicans want to know why she quietly suspended the probe rather than alerting Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, and transferring her all-important subpoena power to him. Neither the governor nor any of his aides were compelled by subpoena to testify. Some Republicans believe that Ms. Hamann had the authority to convey her authority to do so to Cuomo, and thus see the whole affair as a whitewash.

However, buried in the Times article - an indication of just how the pendulum has swung to the Albany GOP these days - is this little tidbit regarding another investigation:

Mr. Bruno has his own troubles. In another part of Albany on Thursday, the Temporary Commission on Lobbying will hold a public session; among the cases they are investigating are flights provided to Mr. Bruno by Jared E. Abbruzzese, a friend whose business interests have received state grants given at Mr. Bruno’s discretion.

Mr. Abbruzzese has also been a central figure in a continuing inquiry by the Federal Bureau of Investigation into Mr. Bruno’s outside business interests.

Abbruzzese, as you may recall, provided those flights to Bruno while he was a director of Friends of New York Racing, the organization which Ms. Hamman's integrity report concluded paved the way for its successor organization Empire Racing under the false pretense of being non-partisan, and after the formation of Empire as well. Abbruzzese has been said to be a driving force in the suspicious transformation of Friends to Empire, and, according to a report in the Albany Times Union last year, led the effort to raise $3 million to help fund the latter. The lobbying commission wants to know if Abbruzzese was attempting to use his friendship and tangled business relationships with the Senate Majority Leader to influence his views on the franchise. Er, what do you think? Seems pretty Evident to me.

Tribal Rule Rules!

- Georgie Boy came flying from dead last and roared down the Polytrack stretch with Garrett Gomez, back on the left coast to ride for trainer Kathy Walsh, with whom he is close freinds, to win the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on closing day. The horse ran kinda funny in the stretch, and never changed leads though it looked like he was thinking about it. So it was quite impressive, but in truth, Salute the Sarge probably should have remained undefeated; he was checked sharply off the heels of a crowded group in front of him turning for home, and charged between horses to get second.

Like the Debutante winner Set Play, Georgie Boy is by a moderately priced Storm Cat stallion; Tribal Rule stands in California for $5,000. He won only a maiden special and allowance in four career starts...and those came at age five! The Stallion Register notes that he was California's leading freshman Sire in 2006, and leading 2nd Crop Sire in 2007. And I imagine that was even before what has been an absolutely astounding week for the stud and his owners at River Edge Farm who, some day soon, might be able to afford a website. Foals of Tribal Rule won no less than four stakes races in six days, all in California! Rush With Thunder took the El Cajon at Del Mar on Friday; on Monday, Rule By Force took the Yavapai Downs Futurity, and Rockella won the Palo Alto at Bay Meadows. And then Georgie Boy topped it all off with a Grade 1 win. For a second-year, regional sire with a total of 109 foals, that pretty much rules!

- The final tally of fatalities at the Del Mar meeting was six - two in races, the rest in training accidents; that's as opposed to 14 last meeting, eight during the afternoon.

[Track president Joe] Harper said owners who typically "re-load" their stables during the latter stages of the meet told him they were stunned they didn't need to do so this year. Harper talked about X-ray machines that went virtually unused and the huge increase -- 20 percent or more -- in horses healthy enough to train each morning.

"One owner said if he brings 20 horses here, he normally brings 12 or so back home with him," Harper said. "This year he is taking 19 home, and the one he doesn't have was claimed." [North County Times]

Southern California racing will now have a 2 1/2 week respite from the synthetic stuff, as racing shifts to Fairplex.

- Shut down for two weeks by a virulent outbreak of equine flu, racing will resume in New South Wales, Australia with what is being referred to there as "phantom races." There are 835 confirmed cases of equine influenza on 119 properties across NSW and the figure is growing. [The Australian] The program, to be held on Saturday, will be closed to the public. So horsemen there will get an idea of what it's like to race at Belmont Park.

- If you checked out the video of Spectacular Bid's walkover win in the Woodward over in the right sidebar, you might have noticed the distinctive voice of Harvey Pack doing the narration. Harvey's been ubiquitous lately promoting his book May The Horse Be With You, a totally delightful read which hopefully you've already had a chance to check out. I had the pleasure of meeting Harvey briefly up in Saratoga, and am hoping to speak to him more extensively soon for what would be the first interview in the history of LATG. Harvey recently did an interview on Bill Littlefield's 'Only A Game' program on NPR, which you can link to from this page. It's a lot of fun and well worth checking out if, hopefully, you have the right audio download to do so.

Hunch Bets for Thursday, Sept 6

She's Due For One - 10th at Emerald Downs
Psychodrama - 2nd at Hoosier Downs
Layinmyburdensdown - 5th at Louisiana Downs
Whatwereyouthinkin - 1st at Laurel
Canyoucatchmenow - 7th at Arlington
Unstoppable Force - 3rd at Turfway
Whata Smuck - 5th at TP

Notes - Sept 5

- New York's Racing and Wagering board is investigating NYRA's no-bid contract with Getnick and Getnick, and Bennett Liebman, stating the apparent if not the obvious, told the Observer that the Governor may have the association's back on this one.

The MOU says that NYRA "will continue the retention of an independent business integrity counsel" making it appear that the firm of Getnick and Getnick has been grandfathered in."

Any involvement by the Governor in the contract is exactly the point of the probe, apparently instituted at the behest of Joe Bruno, at least according to the Post's report on Monday. A very informed commenter to the Observer post points out that The State racing law was amended when Pataki first became Governor to REQUIRE that all contracts of NYRA in excess of $250,000 be competively bid.....Now Getnick's contract was not bid with a wink wink from Spitzer. Bruno will obviously be hoping that the investigation, besides highlighting the fact that the contract is apparently illegal under current racing law, will turn up a connection between Neil Getnick and Spitzer far more substantial than the token campaign contributions he made to the Gov-to-be in 2004-5.

- Lawyer Ron may have run a couple of seconds slower in the Woodward than he did in the Whitney, but he was given a Beyer figure of 119 (upgraded from the original 118), three points higher than his record-setting performance in the first race. So I'm wondering if maybe they went back and upgraded the Whitney number to the 120+ range that the raw figures had suggested...I'll check that out later. Steve Crist had written in his Cristblog that the Woodward time suggested a figure in that range, but I dunno, common sense seems to suggest that he didn't run quite as fast in the second race as he did in the first. Which would certainly be no disgrace. Midnight Lute was given a whopping 124 for his Forego win. He had never run more than a 105. But Mark Hopkins, in his explanation of why he projected Lawyer Ron's Whitney down from the 120's, said that he felt that the number was impossible based on his prior high of 109. So, why did they give Midnight Lute a......guess I just don't quite understand the mechanics behind these numbers sometimes...

No Spectacular Bids

- In September of 1980, Spectacular Bid ran unopposed in the Woodward Stakes at Belmont, the last walkover of any significance to occur in New York State. Until now. 27 years later, in the end it was NYRA in a walkover. This was due of course in great part to the land claim that this governor didn't seem to want to bother to contest. But also because in this case, there were no other Bids that seemed the least bit Spectacular.

Empire Racing, for all their arrogance and childish vitriol directed at their rivals, proved to be far more incompetent and cynical than those they accused of being the same. They said that "New York racing should be run by New Yorkers," yet would have contracted 100% of its management services and half of its simulcast revenues to out-of-state corporations, including our benevolent friends at TrackNet Media. And the Inspector General's report offered a seedy version of how the supposedly non-partisan Friends of New York racing grew to become Empire Racing; one, I might add, that has not yet had one shred disputed or refuted by any of the parties involved as far as I've seen. The fact that they continue to issue attack press releases and carry on as if they weren't unceremoniously dumped by the NYTHA is just unbelievable to me. The mainstream press can only handle a certain amount of alleged scandals I suppose, and this story isn't nearly significant enough to gain any traction. It shows you how people can act with impunity when operating in a media vacuum, and I have to honestly say that I think they have a lot of fucking nerve.

Excelsior earned its recommendation from the Ad Hoc Committee (remember that?) with a well-crafted proposal with a lot of detail and initiative if not any particularly innovative ideas. It also had the Steinbrenner family and its media holdings behind it, and some street cred with Jerry Bailey aboard for the ride. But Excelsior's hopes essentially ended on an early February morning when er....(this guy has disappeared from the scene so quickly and completely, I had to look up his name, seriously!!)...yeah, Steve Swindal, that's it....was arrested for drunk driving in St. Petersburg, Florida. Shortly thereafter, the Boss' daughter filed for divorce, Swindal was out in the Bronx, and the Steinbrenners were gone from Excelsior. I think they lost a lot, if not all their panache at that point, and the comedic appearance by Steve Wynn before the Rifkin Committee certainly didn't help. With no racing experience to speak of on the team, they became a non-starter, at least for that side of the equation.

I don't think Capital Play, despite their enormous financial backing and a credible list of stateside investors, were ever really in the race. I can't imagine that any governor or legislature would have awarded the franchise to a foreign-held entity, even if they had the best proposal. They may have made the highest financial offer (and a large increase in takeout) as they say - I stopped paying attention to all the counter-offers long ago and just presume that they were all offering boatloads of money (don't want to curse twice in one post). I have to admit that I found their stated central goal of reviving the live sport to be appealing and that I did get a sense that there was some genuine enthusiasm to do so. But the idea of turning Aqueduct and Belmont into teeming single bars, while apparently successful in Australia, is just unlikely to fly here no matter how many giant banners they hang from buildings.

So we're left with NYRA, which hardly made a bid at all; just went through the motions, as if conserving something for the home stretch. Charlie Hayward will be criticized by some for giving up the land claim, and thereby selling out the racing franchise to the state in order to remain in place. Without knowing the details of the negotiations and legal proceedings (transparency, my ass), I can't really form an opinion on that. Who knows, maybe NYRA's lawyers believed that the state's case was rock solid and were flabbergasted when the state started to relent. Perhaps they were giddy to get anything in return, no less 30 years and a complete bailout! And besides, it's hard to criticize people for playing the game and fighting to hold on to what they have. If the state thought it had a compelling case, which Spitzer seemed to believe a few months ago, then it was up to it to pursue the land, if, in theory, it felt the industry would benefit. If the state had succeeded, they'd sure be getting a lot more in annual lease money than three bucks! Really, it would be a lot to ask of a man in Hayward's position, on the cusp of a success few could have foreseen just a year ago, to jeopardize a deal by refusing to drop the land claim for the good of the sport in New York. Perhaps at least he did us all a service by making sure that none of the other three prevailed.

- Check out this video from Common Ground (hat tip to the Albany Times Union's Capitol Confidential blog).



- From the NY Daily News, here's a statement by Bruno:

"The Senate's priority is to ensure the strongest racing industry possible," Bruno said in a press release. "That's why the Legislature and Executive put a process in place two years ago to determine who would be best suited to run a world-class horse racing industry. Unfortunately, Governor Spitzer bypassed that process and, with just four months until the current franchise expires, his announcement today still leaves more questions than answers."