Sheikh Still Spending

Well, so much for my brilliant theory that the financial woes of the Emirate of Dubai might slow down the manic spending of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum at horse auctions. His bloodstock agent John Ferguson was the winning bidder for five two-year olds in training, for a total of $5.2 million at the Fasig-Tipton two-year old sale at Calder on Tuesday. He accounted for all three of the million dollar sales, including $1.6 million for a son of Medaglia D'Oro, out of stakes winning Bayou Plans. The colt, named Cup O'Joe, is a half-brother to G1 winner Midas Eyes, and stakes winners Bayou's Lassie and Bourbon N Blues; three horses who prevailed mostly at a mile or less.

It was said that part of the purpose of Abu Dhabi's rescue of Dubai was to reign in its freewheeling ways.

Dubai will also have to "lose its ambitions to become the Monaco of the Gulf.." Abu Dhabi will insist on greater prudence and Dubai's go-getting rulers may also now feel defeated. [The Economist]

The Sheikh feel defeated? I don't think so. Of course, his equine empire, for all I know, may be completely separate and distinct from Dubai's affairs. Still, it wouldn't be surprising if some folks in Abu Dhabi feel a bit like US taxpayers when we saw our bailout-ees continue to spend lavishly. And besides paying absurd prices for unraced horses, the Sheikh seems to be carrying on as usual. Fresh off his latest equestrian triumph, The Poet was on to his latest escapade. A true man of the world indeed.

Still, I think the situation is worth watching. As I've said, one bailout is usually followed by another. And besides, Fasig-Tipton is owned by a "close associate" of His High Sheikhness, so he may have had an incentive to help prop up the results (though it takes two or more to tango at auctions).

- A reader checked in from Dubai to dispute the notion that construction on the Meydan racecourse has been halted, as I reported in this post. And his/her report would seem to be confirmed by this article here.

Aqueduct Notes

A bleak day at the Big A; an ugly spill which I think I'll pass on watching. The death was the seventh racing-related fatality of the year at Aqueduct - six resulting from breakdowns. [NYDN] There were four maiden claimers and two gate scratches; and we have another whole month on the inner track. Used to be that the main would have reopened on this, the first racing weekday of March. (I imagine that would have been delayed this year because of the snow in any event.) But the condition book which commenced on Wednesday and runs through March 29 is written entirely for the inner track. The Aqueduct main track needs a new base and is unable to handle too many April showers. NYRA will hold its breath for the ensuing four weeks before Belmont opens, quite prematurely, on April 29. Brrr. I'll have to bring both of my Rangers blankets - the one I got for my 30th anniversary as a season ticket holder, and the one I got last week as my annual the-playoffs-bill-is-coming-soon gift last week for that opening.

Boy, that slots money would sure come in handy when it comes to things like fixing the main track. It's been a week now since Matt Hegarty's article in which a Delaware North vice-president whose name doesn't possibly matter said that "there are still a lot of major steps to get done before we can put a shovel in the ground." How many of those steps you think have gotten done in the last seven days....as the governor scrambles to save his skin? If the subject was discussed at Wednesday's leaders' meeting in Albany, it hasn't yet been reported. (Afterwards, Assembly Minority Leader and Republican Congressional candidate James Tedisco told of his plans for the stimulus money that he refuses to definitively say whether he would have voted for or not.)

Three winners for Contessa. That's out of five races, a big time percentage for this guy. He's the leading trainer at the Big A by far; the hat trick gave him 32 winners, while runner-up Bruce Levine has 18. However, Contessa has started an astounding 240 horses since Jan 1 (giving him a win percentage of 13%), more than twice as much as Levine, and more than the second through 4th place barns combined. So I think his training title should come with an asterisk.*

One bright spot on Wednesday's card was the win by Noble Sound ($3.80) in the feature, making Darley's $2.8 million son of the late Vindication three-for-three. This was another game effort, as he held off Jacobson's tough Southern Missile after a long duel. The four-year old is a son of the stakes winning (on grass) Serena's Tune, a daughter of the great Serena's Song, and the dam of the stakes winning (on grass) Serena's Cat.

Odds and Ends

- Racing fans who travel to the Meadowlands on the NJ Transit bus from Secaucus Junction will now have to take a taxi instead. Must have been kinda lonely on that #353 bus. Seems like a step up in class anyway. Passengers with bus tickets can exchange them for vouchers, good for a round trip (hopefully) courtesy of the, um, "Good Fellas Taxi Service." Vouchers will not be accepted by other taxi services. Not sure if that's an advisory, or a threat.

- Here's Governor Paterson in his running outfit, as pictured in an upcoming article in Runners World

Noting that he generally sets a moderate pace in a race, the governor said he likes to sprint the final leg because "for some reason, I find it amusing to catch people at the end." [NY Post]

Ah, so that must be his re-election strategy. The governor is sure going to need that closing kick, and boy, will he be laughing if he pulls it off. A new poll shows Paterson with the 'Lowest Gubernatorial Rating In Marist Poll History.'

Gov. David Paterson's Marist poll rating has plummeted 20 points, landing at 26 percent - an all-time low for any governor whose approval has been surveyed by the Poughkeepsie-based poll over the nearly 30 years it has been in existence.
.....
One silver lining for Paterson: 77 percent believe he's working hard [ed. note - hey, just like George W. Bush!] as governor and 62 percent think he understands the problems the state faces.

But when it comes to being a good leader, only 39 percent think he fits the bill.

If the 2010 Democratic primary were held today, AG Andrew Cuomo would blow Paterson away, 62-26. Cuomo's approval rating is 71 percent.
.....
Giuliani would beat Paterson, 53-38 [Daily Politics]

- For some reason, I'm not sure why, I'm on the mailing list of the Tedisco campaign. Guess they're not really reading this thing. NY Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco is the Republican candidate in the special election to replace Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the 20th Congressional District, which snakes up from south of Albany, eases clear around the state capitol to the east, and up through Saratoga and Glens Falls to the north.

And that's been fine. Honestly, I don't really know much about Tedisco; Assembly Minority Leader in this state doesn't exactly give one much in the way of power, exposure, or legislative accomplishments. I did see him get all red in the face, yelling and pointing at Sheldon Silver at a leaders meeting last year (and he wonders why he rarely gets invited). Other than that rather undignified display, I've had nothing in particular against Tedisco, other than the fact that, his being an off-the-shelf Republican, I respectfully disagree with him on most everything. In fact, he's a fellow Union College graduate, so I cut him some slack for that.

However, the other day, an email with the subject line RUDY GIULIANI TO CAMPAIGN WITH JIM TEDISCO IN DUTCHESS COUNTY ON MONDAY appeared in my inbox. Well, that's a good way to get me agitated and involved in Tedisco's race against Democrat Scott Murphy.

Indeed, the hateful and fear-mongering former mayor of NYC did appear with Tedisco in Dutchess County on Monday. And surprise, surprise, here's a tidbit from the campaign swing that I could have told you about without even having read it.

The men stopped at the Roosevelt Fire Department in Poughkeepsie where they presented a bouquet to Kathy Tegtmeier and her children. Tegtmeier’s husband, Paul, was a Roosevelt fire fighter and died in the twin towers on 9/11. [Capitol Confidential]

Because what would an appearance by Giuliani be without a prominent mention of the tragic event which he has shamelessly exploited to make his fortune? Thankfully at least to this point, and thanks in part to Joe Biden (perhaps the most effective one-line political putdown I've ever seen), Giuliani has not been able to exploit 9/11 to further his political career. That didn't stop Tedisco however from attempting to do just that: “In the aftermath of the most devastating attacks ever launched on American soil, Rudy Giuliani’s steady, calm and confident leadership brought comfort to a grieving nation."

So, when it comes to benign Republicans, Tedisco is off my list. And after this post, I figure I'm off his too.

Good News Is No News

I saw a story on Bloodhorse.com Sunday night, too late to write about it. And I figured that by the time I got around doing so, it would already have been well-discussed in the racing press, and on the blogs. However, much to my initial surprise, giving way to I should have known better, I haven't seen it picked up anywhere - not in the Form, not by the TBA, not by the non-TBA; don't even see a link on the Paulick Report....though a link depository has one.

The story concerns the outstanding recent safety records on both the Pro-Ride course at Santa Anita, and the Tapeta Footing at Golden Gate.

Since a rash of five horse breakdowns in the opening five days of racing at the current Santa Anita meet -- resulting in four fatalities -- there has been just one race-related death since Dec. 31, Dr. Rick Arthur told the California Horse Racing Board.

In a report to the board during its meeting Feb. 26, Arthur, the CHRB's equine medical director, said that there have been no racing fatalities at Golden Gate Fields at its current meet. Both tracks opened their winter stands on Dec. 26.
.....
"Going back to 2004, this is the only time I was able to find either track without a racing fatality in January," Arthur told the board. "Whatever the reason -- rain, changes in maintenance procedures, pre-race examinations -- we have had as safe of racing as anywhere in the world in January and February at our Thoroughbred tracks. Hopefully, we will be able to continue that success when the tracks dry out and the heat comes."

There were at least 5,366 starters at Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields during this time frame, he said. [Bloodhorse.com]

Pretty impressive stuff there. You might think that, given the interest and scrutiny of synthetic tracks, news like this would be equally as relevant as the times when there have been rashes of breakdowns...and equally deserving of mention. Certainly, a lot of people wrote about the bad times earlier this year....and I was amongst them, as I've noted before. But this story has thus far gone largely unnoticed. This board meeting took place on Feb 26, and I imagine that someone other than Bloodhorse must have reported on it! Please send me a link if you've seen it.

I think there's a real media bias at play here, in the mainstream press and the blogosphere alike. Seems to me that most simply want the synthetic tracks to fail, sometimes with a ferocity that seems illogical. I don't really get why people are so enamored with and married to racing on dirt. What could be so terrible about a surface which stays fast in the rain, eliminates boring speed biases, and which favors horses who finish strong, the way racing should be in my view, instead of horses who run fast enough early to discourage the rest, and who win merely by coming home less slowly than the others. (And yeah, if they're a bit safer, that would be cool too.)

In the comments section, readers o_crunk and DC discuss the hot-button issue of how relevant, or not, preps run on synthetic tracks are for the Derby. Yeah, I thought DC left himself open there by bringing up the Travers...but he made some good points too.

Personally, while I respect his opinion, I hope mr._crunk is wrong in this case. I still would like to see synthetics succeed; the upside, as detailed above, is too appealing in my view. And I think that a year or two of California horses shipping in to win the dirt Derby - combined with a continued run of relative safety - could only help the cause. Besides, I can't help, at this stage and specifically with respect to the prospect of them running a mile and a quarter, but fancy a horse like Pioneerof the Nile, who came home in splits of 23.46 and 5.52 in the Lewis, over one like Quality Road who slowed down to 23.76 and 25.71 after running fast early (and around one turn). Just my inclination to favor horses who finish strong, and I don't care what they're running on. As DC pointed out, Street Sense prepped in a synthetic race, and one with a pace scenario extreme even for that, with its final eighth of 11 2/5, and mediocre Beyers which turned out to be irrelevant. It seemed to serve him pretty well.

I'm not saying, of course, that Quality Road was not impressive, nor that he couldn't possibly win the Derby. He received a 113 Beyer, and Steve Crist writes that the number looks completely legit.

...the track was consistent throughout the day, there were no split variants, the other one-mile race on the card was more than three full seconds slower, and the day's five other dirt races earned fittingly modest figures of between 67 and 89.

Gary West, on his West Points blog, calls the final time of 1:35.07 towering.

The average for the week was 1:38.60. Not including the Fountain of Youth, it was 1:38.96. In winning the Davona Dale by 3 3/4 lengths, Justwhistledixie ran the second-fastest mile of the week, 1:37.67, which, of course, is about 13 lengths slower than Quality Road’s effort.

The pedigree is certainly there as I mentioned previously, and I've read that he's quite the physical specimen these days (couldn't really tell watching the replay on the tiny screen on the NTRA site). Yeah, he could be the one, sure. But can't we at least see him run in a true route race before pronouncing him as a major player?

Sunday Morning Notes - Mar 1

Dominant win in the Sham by The Pamplemousse (Kafwain). Wire to wire in splits of 23.08, 23.43, 23.78, 24.80 and a final eighth in 12.77; he cruised home in 37.57 for the last 3/8ths. He's out of a Rubiano mare who's a half-sister to at least four ungraded stakes winners according to Pedigree Query; as well as to the dam of Stormello, a Derby pretender a couple of years ago.

This colt is now three-for-three since stretching out to two turns, so we can surmise he likes a distance of ground. Of course, as reader o_crunk most fairly points out, the matter of his transferring his form from synthetics to dirt is a question mark. I suppose one can look at the synth/dirt issue in two different ways with respect to the Derby trail - it's either a relatively new and compelling twist that adds, in a positive way, to the uncertainty that makes the Derby the intriguing puzzle it is.....or a completely random and uninterpretable element that is making a mess out of the whole thing. I think we need to wait a few years for some more evidence before deciding either way.

- Yet another debut winner for Pletcher at Gulfstream - that's an improbable nine out of 21 on the Florida circuit this season (and five out of his last eight) - and this one was a doozy. Affirmatif took the finale, on the grass, exploding home by nine lengths even after having to duel with McPeek first-timer Cardiologist on the backstretch. A poster on a chat group that I'm in compared the effort to that of Big Brown in his grass debut at Saratoga, and I think the comparison is well-taken. He came home in 22.91 for a final time of 1:34.27. Two races earlier, the Toddster's Twilight Meteor won the G3 Canadian Turf Handicap in 1:34.31! Affirmatif is by Unbridled's Song, out of an Affirmed half-sister to the aforementioned Rubiano, and to Tap Your Shoes, the dam of Tapit.

- Good point by this reader regarding three-year olds now facing their elders in maiden races in New York, and a nice trifecta indeed if you boxed the older horses in Saturday's sixth.

Three such races on the card today and, as pointed out, in the 9th, James Iselin, who had that 6th race winner yesterday, starts Crafty Gem (12-1). This four-year old son of Crafty Prospector ran 4th in the slop at 38-1 in January, and that race has turned out to be pretty strong. Second place finisher American Queen has run second and first in maiden specials at Philly Park, and third-place finisher Forest Intrigue won at that track with a Beyer of 86. 7th place finisher Laca romped in a 45K maiden claimer here last week.

Sourwine for TVG (Sorry, Susie)

On TVG not long before the Fountain of Youth, a fascinating betting contest if no longer, as a one turn mile, as significant in terms of implications for the spring classics, Todd Schrupp was interviewing Susie Sourwine, the marketing director of Emerald Downs, about the upcoming 2009 spring/summer meet. (Thus, the apology for the tacky wordplay on the woman's name, I'm sure she's very nice.) It doesn't even start until April 17. Oh man, talk about filling time. I'd like to see them just come clean at this point. We all know what's going on. Just have Schrupp look into the camera, with that pseudo-sincere look and tone he likes to employ, and go "Man, we suck. We got nuthing now." Yeah, I tease these guys sometimes, but they are (mostly) knowledgeable hosts, and it seems undignified for them to be pretending that they have anything more than B material this time of the year. It will change of course, over the summer....but man, this is a rough patch.

It's not like they'd lose any viewers either. Anyone with Dish Network who's watching either TVG or HRTV is doing so for a specific reason - HRTV to see the best winter racing; TVG if your Uncle Seymour has some nag running in the 6th at Turfway (#10 in the HANA rankings). And if you have DirecTV, you have no choice. Anyway, I didn't get to the Fountain of Youth here either, as I was too busy. I think I need one of those road to the triple crown guest blogger dudes - how do I get one of those?

TVG didn't really miss much in my opinion. Quality Road ($13) stalked This One's For Phil (slammed in the win pool late) pushing him to a fatal second quarter of 21.63 after a tepid opening split. Dutrow's colt spit the bit soon after turning for home, and Quality Road was never threatened as he came home in quarters of 23.76 and 25.61 [four lengths in front of Theregoesjojo]. And I dunno, I guess that's not considered to be too terrible for a dirt race, considering the early pace. Nicely bred colt - by Elusive Quality, out of a Strawberry Road full sister to the champion three-year old Ajina. His second dam is a half to a couple of Irish stakes winners, and to the dam of Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner Bahri. So some class and distance in this pedigree.

But this race featured a lot of disappointing performances - especially Capt. Candyman Can, well-positioned at his favorite distance - with the field pretty spread out despite the slow fractions at the end. It was another four back to Beethoven, and two more to 5th place This One's For Phil, who stopped to a near walk, yet was still eight ahead of the rest. Taqarub tired to 9th for McLaughlin, who had a miserable day in New York - dead last with 3-1 first-timer Hot to Trot in the 6th, and the same in the Stymie with 3-1 Brilliant Son. The way the race fell apart tempers my enthusiasm for the winner, so I'll wait to see him go a distance of ground before considering him to be a serious contender.

- The Rangers scored more goals - four - in the first 15 minutes than they had in the last three games combined, and crushed the Avs 6-1 in a rollicking Saturday night performance at the Garden. Now, that wasn't so hard, was it? And not a trap in sight.

Frank Fiddles As Magna Crumbles

Magna Entertainment announced that it defaulted on a PNC Bank loan tied to Pimlico and Laurel. Barring some kind of new arrangement or accommodation, the company will be unable to make a $275 million repayment to MI Developments on March 20; and it faces a Wednesday deadline for a $40 million repayment to a Canadian bank. The company is scrambling to save its slots prospects in Maryland (a point which may soon be moot anyway). As Steve Zorn reports on his Business of Racing blog, Magna has lost three directors, thus falling into non-compliance with the Toronto Stock Exchange, and is in similar straits on NASDAQ. Perhaps most ominously of all, parent company Magna International reported a loss of $148 million, prompting shareholders of that company to express concern over the prospect of its extending a lifeline to the Magna racing and real estate companies.

So, what is Frank Stronach up to amidst all this turmoil? Well, for one thing, he spent time composing a letter to the editor, published in today's edition of Thoroughbred Daily News, on the timely subject of THE ECLIPSE AWARDS: TIME FOR A NEW SYSTEM OF SELECTING WINNERS. (It's free, but PDF only and registration required.) Though not concerning the Eclipse Awards that people actually care about.

Since the announcement of the 2008 Eclipse Awards several weeks ago, there has been public controversy surrounding the selection of Outstanding Owner. A number of owners and sports writers have questioned the validity or fairness of the results--but few have stopped to question the actual process used to determine the annual winners of the Eclipse Award.

(Wait a minute. Didn't Frank win this award?)

I believe the Eclipse Awards need to be based on a points system with a clear-cut formula. Points would be awarded to owners for races won, with low-level races (e.g., a claiming race) receiving the fewest points, while stakes-graded races (e.g., Grade I races) would receive the highest number of points. Under such a system, owners that had smaller stables, but with a large number of high-quality, championship horses would end up with more points than owners that had larger stables and a lot of low-grade wins.

Leave it to Frank to devote his time to such a self-serving subject even as his empire comes crashing down around him. I mean, who, really, other than he, Michael Iavarone, and a handful of others could give a rat's ass about the Eclipse Award for owners? Funny thing is that Frank actually could have done the sport a service if he applied his points standings proposal to the horses....or even to jockeys, the most visible and marketable human faces in the game. I don't believe that even a publication with as elite a target audience as Thoroughbred Daily News would be interested in owners standings. Instead, it's all about Frank, no doubt a large part of the reason he's in the position he finds himself in today.

Saturday Morning Notes

Last Desire ($6.80) won the first on Friday at Aqueduct off five days rest for Contessa. That's a good move for this barn of late - 5-2-3 with his last 13 in the 1-7 day category.

Hatfield was all out at 1-4 to hold off Early Response in a final quarter in 27 seconds, yuck. Meetmeatthechapel set the pace, held gamely past the eighth pole, faded late to 4th (settling for a purse share of $2200), and was found to have bled.

Charming Officer ($7) won the 4th for Joe Imperio, on a pretty good streak these days with two in a row, and a record of 3-2-2 with his last eight.

Smooth ride by Rosie Napravnik on Awesome Ashley ($9.80), lagging behind a contested pace, saving ground on the rail, biding her time waiting for room before slipping out to the three path midstretch, and rallying home past uncoupled Pletcher stablemate Distorted Passion to win the Feel the Beat Stakes. 4-5 favorite A Rose For You was last.

- Eight claiming races out of nine on the card, three of the maiden variety, a 35K claiming affair in the feature race slot. Another February day at the Big A? No, Friday at Gulfstream Park. You might guess that they were saving the good stuff for Fountain of Youth day, but there are two maiden sellers smack dab in the middle of today's card too.

Shakeup Good For Gov, Bad For Horsemen

Governor Paterson has engaged in a major shakeup of his staff in an attempt to get his administration, and his re-election hopes, back on track. The Times reported that he has turned largely to veterans of the Clintons’ far-flung network to try to steady the situation.

“These people are battle-tested in national politics,” said George Arzt, a Democratic political consultant in New York. “It’s a team to be reckoned with, for the first time since David took over.”

They will add to an already growing Clintonian flavor in Mr. Paterson’s camp. Another Clinton veteran, Harold M. Ickes, the former White House deputy chief of staff, has also been advising Mr. Paterson in recent months.

We know that racing has not been a high priority for this administration in the first place, and, as Paul Post reports today in the Thoroughbred Times, this kind of shakeup is not going to help the industry get its attention.

Post also discusses the proposed changes in the VLT splits at Aqueduct in Paterson's plan for a racino at Belmont.

Under that plan.....horsemen’s and breeders’ revenues from Aqueduct would be cut in half.

Currently, horsemen and breeders are slated to get 1% and 7% of revenues, respectively, the first year and increasing to 1.5% and 7.5% in year three and beyond. [Actually the other way around.]

Paterson says the groups only need half that amount because a second racino at Belmont would result in twice as much money. Horsemen and breeders disagree, however, saying that competition from a Belmont racino, only eight miles from Aqueduct, might reduce overall gross income.

“These cuts, if enacted, would be devastating to Thoroughbred racing and breeding,” said Edward Bogdan III, managing partner of Albany-based Bogdan, Lasky, Kopley, LLC, a long-time lobbyist for New York Thoroughbred Breeders Inc. “While we would like to see more VLTs in the state, that proposal is no good for us.” [Thoroughbred Times]

Paterson's position is, first of all, overly simplistic in its assumption that two racinos necessarily equals twice the revenue. Worse for the industry, if I'm understanding him correctly, the governor is basically fixing the amount of revenue that horsemen "need" in his view. That would be a dangerous precedent, one which would no doubt be applied in the event that racino gaming ever expands to table games. Would he, or his successor, then claim that the percentages could be cut even further because the horsemen don't "need" the extra revenue that such games would presumably generate? And how about Delaware North....why do they "need" the extra money as opposed to the horsemen?

Aqueduct Notes

In the third at the Big A on Friday, Meetmeatthechapel makes his debut for Kasey K. We claimed this three-year old son of Chapel Royal from Asmussen for 20K on Feb 16, when he was a disappointing third at odds of 3-4 (still can't get used to those prices). He's 5-1 in this five horse Starters Allowance field with a generous $44,000 purse, but he's actually second choice since Hatfield is listed at 2-5. I bet that horse when he debuted on Feb 1, after some top-heavy tote action. Jorge Chavez was looking around for competition after putting away Geno Green (who dropped from 40K to 16K when he graduated on Saturday) as he turned for home, going on to win by 10 with an 89 Beyer which is in a class of its own in this field. Hatfield was also trained by Asmussen, and was also claimed, he by Contessa.

Here's two prototypical handicapping questions at work - a horse facing winners for the first time, and attempting to stretch out to two turns. To me, the second of those is the key question, and makes this horse one that, in my opinion, one can not possibly play at the expected odds. At 2-5, you won't see a more classic application of Harvey Pack's advice to not take a short price on a horse doing it's never done before.

Hatfield should like the route. He's by Proud Citizen, out of a Bates Motel mare, has a high Tomlinson, a low dosage index; he's a half brother to the dam of Liquor Cabinet, his second dam is a half-sister to the Irish champion Ministrella (a half to the granddam of Saint Liam). But we won't really know until he tries it. I wouldn't want to find out at those odds. In fact, I think he'd be a good candidate to bet against.

But I prefer to recuse myself when Kasey K is involved. You do understand that sometimes I'm not at liberty to comment one way or another, so I figure I just shouldn't comment in any case. For example, some of the boys may be looking to make a score at the windows....and that's not (necessarily) due to any hush hush inside info. More likely it's just something that a sharp horseplayer might notice anyway, like a trip more troubled than indicated by the race chart, or an anticipated change in tactics hinted at by a rider, equipment, or distance change. Something they're hoping you don't notice, and they don't need me to point out.

Honestly, in this case, I've been too busy working and watching the Rangers lose to have spent too much time on the phone with Bob, and I honestly don't know a thing other than the horse was fine upon arrival. But, you don't need me to tell you that trainer Bruce Brown has a fine record first off the claim - 9 for 29 (31%), two in a row and three out of the last five. Or that the only win for Meetmeatthechapel was at this two-turn one mile distance. Or that he was a solid second in this class three races back. So you might conclude that he has a shot if the favorite isn't what he's supposed to be.

Asmussen has a claim of his own in Early Response (6-1), and Dominguez sticks despite the trainer change. Weekend Action (6-1) is an interesting case, moving up to face winners despite losing his last two against maidens. He was retroactively declared the winner of his Jan 9 effort when Wild Conga tested positive for excess carbon dioxide. Pretty interesting little race for such a short field and short-priced favorite.

- The Rangers suffered a loss which was as demoralizing and damaging as one can imagine, at least at this stage with still 19 games to play. The Broadway Blueshirts, more energized and aggressive on the forecheck in two games under their new coach, still cannot score; just two goals on some 73 shots for the two games, not to mention all the glorious chances which didn't even result in a shot on goal. They outshot the Panthers 41-22. They've fallen to last in the league in goals per game. In their last 12 losses, coming in the last 14 games, they've scored all of 15 goals. It's just unbelievable. I just can't accept that any professional hockey team not named the Islanders could be this pitiful offensively.

Still, coach John Tortorella remains upbeat. “I think we did some really good things. Our pressure was outstanding.....I think our weakest moment was our 5 on 3. Other than that, I think we played a hell of a game.” And I remain on board.

Sticking with Sinking Ships

Whilst many others have long turned their backs and had nothing but harsh words, I've stubbornly stuck to my guns on two matters on this blog - Governor Paterson and the New York Rangers. Now, both ships have sunk fast after quick starts, and I'm stuck out on a very lonely limb. The Broadway Blueshirts have lost ten out of 12 and find their playoff position in dire jeopardy. The Governor's poll numbers have plummeted, to the point that some close observers of Albany are not persuaded that he will not even run for re-election next year.

* Paterson is now viewed favorably by 40 percent of voters and unfavorably by 47 percent, down from last month’s 54-30 percent favorable rating, and his high of 64-19 percent in November.
* His job performance rating is 28 percent positive, 69 percent negative down from 51-45 percent positive last month.
* Currently, only 19 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 57 percent who prefer “someone else.” That’s down from 32-36 percent last month, and 42-32 percent in November.

The 2010 matchups are striking. Cuomo now beats Paterson in a Democratic primary nearly 2-1 - Cuomo gained 20 points in just one month. In a general election, Paterson trails Giuliani by 15 points, while Cuomo leads Giuliani by 13 points. [Capitol Confidential]

Ugh. As much as I still do like Paterson, despite his occasional stumbles and his, let's say, statements of dubious veracity on Delaware North and other matters, I'd dump him in a second if it meant that the despicable slimeball ex-mayor of NYC becomes governor, perish the thought.

I continue to insist that Paterson's decline is largely based on the unfair and largely false perception that he botched the Senate selection process. As I've asserted before, any "circus" atmosphere around the process was nearly all created by the press, and by the candidates who went public with their ambitions. Though it did reach a point at which he should have ended it, I have to agree with him here:

Paterson reiterated his initial goal had been to wait for Clinton to be confirmed as secretary of state before announcing his choice in case something happened to derail her nomination.

“I didn’t think that would happened to Senator Clinton, and it didn’t," he said. "But it would have been a very difficult thing because I would have had to stand here for months and you ask me: ‘Well why would you make the pick before the person left office, David, what were you doing?' And you know you would ask me that question.” [Daily Politics]

The governor was not going to win here either way.

Still, I will go on record as keeping the faith, on both accounts. In both cases, personnel changes have been made. The Rangers have a new coach in John Tortorella, a man with a personality and coaching philosophy so diametrically opposed to the passive Tom Renney (who did, for the most part, a great job in guiding the team to the playoffs three straight years after they missed them for nine), that it can't help but spark this group. The Blueshirts are still in the hunt, and they showed grit and determination during the early months of the campaign. I still believe they're a team with heart and significantly more offensive talent than they've shown of late.

Paterson has brought back tax-scandalized aide Charles O'Byrne as a political advisor for the 2010 campaign. And it sure sounds from this as if more changes are on the way. While I'm not as confident as I am regarding my hockey heroes, Paterson has plenty of time and material with which to turn things around, should he succeed in guiding the budget process to an acceptable conclusion. Of course, given the inherent unpopularity that goes with closing such a gaping budget gap, and the attacks that come with it, that won't be easy. But I won't abandon this ship either.....yet.

Aqueduct Notes

In the second at Aqueduct today, Bubba Gum (5-2) doubles in price off the claim for trainer Joe Imperio after wiring 10K company with ease. This barn is two for 47 (both courtesy of Holly Time) since the Big A opened last fall. He's been in the mix of late though with with a record of 10-2-2-3 (though one of those thirds was Charming Officer at 3-5). And he's been quite close moving them up off claims - One of the Best just missed at 10-1 going from 14K to 20K on Feb 7; Chief Export was a close second at 7-1 going from 20K to 30K on Feb 14. This horse won't be 7-1, that's for sure. He didn't face much in his last and I'd consider betting against him except that he looks like he could be long gone as lone speed.

When I wrote recently about picking losers, a reader noted:

There are many ways to play the game, and I do the opposite.

I look for legitimate favorites that are not underlays, and either bet them straight or try to find value by hooking up with another horse in straight EX or DD.

Nothing is absolute of course, and I will sometimes play a race the latter way myself. Don't know if Bubba Gum will be underlaid or not, but this could be one of those instances. El Chile Dog (8-1) cut back in distance when moved up confidently off the claim by Contessa despite getting trounced when he took him from Jacobson. Far back as usual, he closed very well for third despite a wide trip that became even wider when he was carried out further in deep stretch. Winner Chief Export raced well against better in his next as noted above; second place finisher Fleet Valid set the pace against 35K optional claimers and weakened for third. I'll look for El Chile Dog to pick up the pieces and complete the exacta.

Dubai Bailout (Part 1)

I'm reading about the $10 billion bailout extended to Dubai by fellow emirate Abu Dhabi, but not in the racing press. There's a story in the Times, another at CNN, and here at the Financial Times. There is coverage by John over at The Race Is Not Always to the Swift; but that's a blog, not the press as we know.

Of course, the story belongs in the financial news; it's just another fine mess. But I dunno, seems to me that any hint that the fortunes of the Sheikh may turn bad enough so as to curtail his participation, even just to an extent, as a buyer of Kentucky foals alone would be worth a mention on Bloodhorse.com, wouldn't you think? And that's not to mention the fact that his various stables are a major force in the sport worldwide, his World Cup bonanza has become a singular goal for many horsemen internationally, and the phone calls of his representatives to lucky owners of impressive two-year olds have become part of the American racing dream.

Even the Paulick Report defers to the optimistic view: SURGING: DUBAI SHARES SHOW LARGEST INCREASE IN THREE MONTHS. Those guys over there are all hepped on their Paulick Derby Index, featured on ESPN.com, but, sadly, not quite as manly as before.

Of course, I'm sure there's probably nothing to worry about. And I imagine that the Sheikh has sufficient assets that are not directly tied to the fate of his emirate. But then again, I can't help but think that with real estate prices there reported to be down 25%, it would seem there's a lot of room for further decline. Work has stopped on the Meydan racecourse - John noted that the construction cam on the website is stuck on last October. The contractor was fired after completing 70%. John says that they were only paid 30%; I don't know how he knows that, maybe he's a real reporter after all. Bloomberg reports that the bailout "threatens to cost Dubai its autonomy and the free- wheeling economic system that helped establish it as the Middle East’s main business hub."

And, most ominously to me, bailouts seem to come in twos (or threes) these days. One is always followed by another. And another. And with each subsequent rescue, the rescued gives up more control.

So who can say with any confidence that the Sheikh will be a buyer this summer and fall? Maybe he'll even be a seller. Imagine, he could team up with Frank. That would be one doozy of a dispersal.

Nice Report - Don't Hold Your Breath

Here's a link, courtesy of the Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential, to the full final report of the Belmont Park Redevelopment Study. [WARNING: Large, slow-loading PDF file] The conclusion of the report, calling for slots, a hotel and retail, is no surprise of course.....though the senior housing thing caught me a bit off guard. It spells out, with a great amount of thought and detail, various options for the site - standalone racino, small or large hotel with racino, or a hotel with the racino in the grandstand. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be the latter, what with all the empty and wasted space there.

It's a nice report with a lot of color pictures, charts and diagrams; but it pretty much ignores one pretty critical element. The final section, titled Next Steps, calls for an Economic Impact Analysis, a Gaming Analysis, and an Implementation Process, including the always-hilarious Request For Proposals (RFP). However, though it notes, almost in passing, that "The Governor has recently introduced a bill that would provide for VLT gaming at Belmont Park Racetrack," it glosses over the fact that the state's tax law specifically prohibits VLT's at racetracks of the non-profit racing association known as Belmont Park racetrack and the Saratoga thoroughbred racetrack...and that the sitting Assembly Speaker, Sheldon Silver, is adamantly opposed to allowing them there. There should be a whole section, if not an entire new report, devoted to how to get such a bill passed!

James Odato reiterated in his piece in the Times Union that the issue of Delaware North wanting a higher cut at their Aqueduct racino should Belmont come to fruition is a key sticking point in the negotiations with the state.

Legislation would have to be passed to alter the VLT rates to benefit Delaware North — and the company isn't planning to give the state its $370 million up-front payment for rights to operate at Aqueduct until such legislation is in place, according to company officials.

Because Paterson is planning to receive that $370 million by March 31, the legislation is critical in the next few weeks, Delaware North says.

Sounds like Delaware North is counting on that deadline to force the Governor's hand. But if some of the terms we've recently seen used to describe his administration - "bewildered," "confused," "frustrated," and "unable to provide simple, consistent answers" - are true, Delaware North shouldn't count on him even remembering that date.

Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos expressed reservations that the report delivered only "very general recommendations'' about Belmont that could take another year to develop into specifics. [Bloodhorse] But actually, compared to what's been going on (or not) at Aqueduct, that would be quite a bit of progress. A racino at Belmont, as logical as it's always seemed to me, is in reality just theoretical at this point; the Aqueduct racino, or at least the concept of one, is theoretically a reality, and look how long that's taking! We could be into the second Obama administration before we see one at either.

Notes - Feb 23

Talk about a race being over on the backstretch, did you see what Edgar Prado pulled in the G3 The Very One Stakes at Gulfstream on Criticism ($6.00)? The five-year old daughter of Machiavellian hadn't run on the lead before, but in this race with no obvious speed, she was there by default - a second quarter of 26.30 to a half in 51.24 followed by 26.06 split, for a dawdling three-quarters in 1:17.30! “We got in good position and that was pretty much it,” Prado said. That's for sure!

From there, it was a sprint home - 23.73 to the mile, and the last three-eighths in 34.20 (22.69 and 11.51); Edgar, are you kidding me?? Harness drivers used to get fined for slowing the pace like that (do they still do that)?

Another debut winner there for Pletcher; this one, Albali ($6.60) running for a 30K tag. It was the 4th winning first-timer for the Toddster from his last five tries at the Gulf; but the first one in 20 starters (at all tracks) and exactly two years with a debut maiden claimer - not a common placement for this barn. This filly was claimed by trainer Bobby Dibona. She's by Aldebaran, out of a stakes-winning (France, non-graded) by Kendor. I imagine that, somewhere, she's worth 30K just as a broodmare. Of course, I wasn't around for that race, and didn't know about it when I bet Pletcher's first-timer Jane's Gal in the 10th (3rd at 5-1).

And another winner at Aqueduct for trainer Bruce Brown; Incalzando ($6.00), who stepped up to face winners and handled them easily. In the sixth, the barn's first-timer Won Great Classic, settle for second at 11-1 after battling for the lead in the stretch with Scorch the Torch (damn).

Bet the 4th at Santa Anita yesterday, and I didn't cash due to my own stupidity, so I'm not bragging or anything. Maybe redboarding a bit...though, of course, in order to make a point to help us all profit in the future. Scored ($14.40) was making his debut, at the age of four, for trainer Bruce Headley. On the Form, the trainer's record for the meet was 1 for 29, and his 1st Start stat read 0 for 15. However, if you've been following the races out there (I haven't) or have Formulator (I did), you'd know or see that the trainer had been knocking on the door of late - four seconds and two thirds in his last eight starts. Whatsmore, his debut runners have been live lately - just the day before, Off The Wall ran second at 11-1. Add in the fact that sire Came Home is a 13% first-time stallion and some top-heavy action in the win pool, and I thought he was worth using (though unfortunately not in an ultimately profitable way for me). Moral is that, as helpful as the raw Form stats are, there's sometimes more there than meets the eye if you're able to delve further.

Shoe Delay

Rap Tale caused quite a big commotion when she had to be reshod prior to the Rare Treat yesterday. (That besides giving her owners quite the scare when we saw her heading back to the paddock just a couple of minutes before scheduled post.) The other jockeys had to dismount as well, by rule I'm told so as not to give any horse the advantage of having the weight off, and it took several minutes and quite the persistent and game effort by the horseshoe guy to nail one back onto a highly agitated filly. (Out to dinner afterwards at Don Peppe's with the Head Chef, Bob, his wife Sue, Bruce Brown and his wife Jenny, partner Artie and his wife Deb, and friend of the stable Steve [edited so as not to insult anyone by leaving them out by name!], I was heartily mocked when I referred to the guy as a 'farrier.' Seems that term is reserved now only for ex-Jets linebackers finding their Super Bowl glory elsewhere.)

Shoe restored, Rap Tale finished 5th. Ramon Dominguez and trainer Brown decided that they would take the conservative route and pull back so as to avoid favored Weathered, with the aim of an in-the-money finish. But she found herself too far back of a moderate pace, and pinned in against the rail. This filly is too one-paced, and neither fast nor agile enough to succeed under those circumstances. She tried hard to hang on to 4th, but failed by a nose thus settling for 5th place prize money of $2,121.

Not really sure what's next. The ultimate goal is Virginia-bred stakes at Colonial Downs later this year. In the meantime, finding a spot in New York without exposing her to a tag will be next to impossible. Philly Park has NW4x allowances, so that's a possibility. I'd heartily agree with the notion that she needs some rest....but y'know what, I think I'm happy to leave that decision up to a trainer who has won nearly a quarter of his races since going out on his own just over a year ago.

Looking for a Silver Lining

Paul Morose, writing on his At The Races blog, explains why he hasn't been to the Big A, which, he opines, has the atmosphere of a third-world bus terminal (a description I find to be mildly xenophobic), since Thanksgiving weekend.

I find very little at Aqueduct that prompts speculation in the pari-mutuel pools and expect nothing to change after post-scratch re-evaluation of this position. While admittedly more conservative than most horseplayers, a typical week of racing this winter has failed to yield more than a handful of plays and it is not unusual for a card, like [Thursday] – which does not include a single open allowance race but two for maiden claimers and a special weight for state-breds -- to be completely empty.

Well, I certainly can't say he's entirely wrong (at least as far as the quality of racing goes; as you know, I adore the Big A). It's a tough go here at times. There have indeed been some days on which a perusal of the pp's hasn't produced a single race that inspires me to delve further (though Thursday was not one of them). And personally, I just can't abide by these bottom level state-bred maiden, and now, open claimers which NYRA has depended on to fill up the fields and cards. This is actually the first year in a while that I've paid close attention rather than divert nearly all of my handicapping efforts to warmer climes....and there have been times when I have wavered.

However, as is generally the case with this writer, I think he's overdoing it with the gloom and doom. More often than not, I find that there's at least a couple of races on the card that I find interesting enough, particularly the claiming races which require one to read into the trainer's minds to determine intent in addition to analyzing the numbers in the Form. The various conditions attached to claiming races, and the starters allowances and handicaps have helped to keep things reasonably lively, as has the infusion of live horses from the Lake, Ramsey, and Asmussen stables.

Having said that, Gulfstream this is certainly not. But I'm glad I've stuck with it, and I think it will prove to be beneficial for me down the road. For one thing, the seasons change, the heat and humidity turns to the chill of autumn and eventually to ice and snow, the green leaves come and go. So why not experience the ebb and flow of the racing season as well? Sure, one can follow the horses down to Florida, up through Lexington to Belmont and Saratoga and then back south again, and maintain a high level of intensity 12 months a year. But personally, I need a break every now and then. And I believe that enduring the winter racing season will no doubt help me better appreciate the sport as it starts to improve come spring, instead of taking it for granted and grumbling when the racing may not live up to its billing. Because, like it or not, racing that we might consider to be "cheap" is now a 12 month stable around here; just wait until the third week of Saratoga. I'm thinking and hoping that following the NYRA circuit through the hard times will, in addition to giving me a feeling of accomplishment just for sticking with it, help me to be more knowledgeable of the tendencies of the local year-round barns, thus enabling me to take advantage when others are moaning and groaning over all the claiming events you're sure to see in August, and throughout the spring and fall.

- In the 7th at Aqueduct today, Night in Tunisia (7-2) takes a steep drop in class for Pletcher, running for a tag for the first time....and a cheap one (10K) at that. The Toddster is quietly having a decent meeting here, 9 for 37 (24%), and four winners from his last nine starters. This horse has a similar pattern to that of Sunday Elegance, who the barn similarly dropped drastically in class and turned back from a route to a sprint when she romped in a conditional 15K event on Dec 27 (and then moved up to win for 30K earlier this month). Like that one, Night in Tunisia has shown some good early foot; and in fact graduated at this distance at Belmont with a 64 Beyer that certainly makes him competitive here. Gotta love the fact that Dominguez climbs aboard too. All the Way Home is the value play here at his 12-1 morning line. Dropped to this level and cut back to six furlongs in his last, David Duggan's gelding had a deeply troubled trip; squeezed back after the start, buried on the rail, and steadied several times throughout. When finally clear, he finished well for third. Clear path from the 12 post here with Rosie back in the saddle. Honour Above Self (6-1) is clearly the class of this field, but the long absence and return for a cheap price makes him suspicious indeed.

The Rare Treat is down to six, and thanks for the well-wishes for Rap Tale. Good luck to all and have a great day.

Watching Nothing

Thanks as always to the Watchful Horseman, keeping his watchful horseman's eye on the nothing happening with the still-mythical racino at the Big A.

And here's the link to Jerry Bossert's item in the NY Daily News today. As noted by Mr./Ms. Anonymous and by Steve Zorn, Senator Eric Adams, the newly appointed Chairman of the Senate Racing, Wagering and Gaming Committee, has no experience in racing that we know of, and his statement does indeed sound straight out of the governor's PR machine. And one could say that the senator reveals his ignorance of the subject when he cites the "partnership between NYRA and Delaware North" that he's so excited about. In fact, there is no actual partnership between the two other than the percentage of revenues that Delaware North will be statutorily obligated to turn over to NYRA when and if the facility is up and running. The company was selected by the governor, and any negotiations which may or may not be currently going on are between Delaware North and the state. Makes one wonder if the Chairman, who, as mentioned, has recently been in the news on other matters, has even a basic understanding of the proposed arrangement.

- New all-time lows today for the stock of Magna Entertainment in the wake of the collapse of the complicated spin-off plan that would have spared the company from having to repay its massive debt to controlling shareholder MI Developments next month. I tried to decipher the plan in this post last year. Matt Hegarty of the Form sums up the mountain of red ink.

Magna's most recent balance sheet lists $265 million in accounts payable, $71.9 million in short-term debt, $379.3 million in long-term debt, and $112 million in "other liabilities." It has lost $500 million over the past five years, and efforts by the company to raise money by selling tracks and structuring partnerships in its marquee tracks have failed.

Magna officials did not return phone calls Thursday.

Maybe their phones were turned off. The National Post of Canada ran the headline Magna Entertainment's race may be run.

That plan disintegrated this week after MID said new debt financing for the deal was "unlikely" to be found, given "current global economic conditions [and] the continued disruptions in the financial markets."

As a result, US$274-million in outstanding loans that MEC owes MID will be called in next month, potentially triggering a feeding frenzy among MEC's other creditors.

If it is unable to repay that sum alongside an outstanding balance on a US$40-million credit facility to an unnamed Canadian chartered bank, "substantially all of its other current and long-term debt will also become due on demand," the company said.
.....
MEC, the largest owner of horse racetracks in North America including Santa Anita in California, said negotiations with MID are continuing, which may include an extension on the repayment date of Mar. 20. [National Post]

Maybe Frank should put a call in to John Malone of Liberty Media, who, having rescued Sirius XM from a looming deadline for debt repayment, could also throw a lifeline to Frank and finally put HRTV on his DirectTV so we can FINALLY WATCH SOME DECENT RACING AROUND HERE instead of watching NOTHING on TVG!!!

Rare Rap Treat

Rap Tale is 5-1 morning line, 4th choice in the Rare Treat Handicap on Saturday at the Big A (third race). I've been willing to listen to those who have criticized Kasey K for placing her unrealistically, even as she's earned more than $130,000 for the stable (despite failing to Beyer over 78). In fact, I've expressed a preference myself for the softer spots which trainer Bruce Brown has deftly found. But not this time. We'd have to be idiots to not run her in this spot. She's out of conditions, blossoming, and ready to roll, as evidenced by a bullet five furlong work that has Brown raving.

Whatsmore, Ramon is back up, she drew the rail and, with Successful Sarah instead opting for a starter allowance race today, the possible lone speed. Weathered (9-5) is a legit 1-2 favorite in my view. But she seems to prefer to stalk (unless Luzzi decides to get even for being taken off Rap Tale). So I'm hoping that it well be a similar scenario to the Ladies Handicap, in which Rap Tale led into the stretch and was unfortunate to get nipped out of the show spot and the elusive black type. This is an eighth mile shorter, and, while a couple of the others besides Weathered may be a bit faster on paper, Rap Tale is certainly not outclassed by any of those, and we still believe that her best is yet to come.

- A longtime reader is begging me to mention Rail Trip, so here we go. Trainer Ron Ellis is being patient with this undefeated (3 for 3) four-year old son of Jump Start, entered in the second at Santa Anita today, allowing him to climb through allowance conditions before moving on to stakes. He's won each of his prior three starts in ridiculously easy fashion, with Beyers of 102, 101, and 99. Ellis is not exactly babying him in terms of starts however; he last raced three weeks ago, and made his debut on November 7. He's out of a Carson City mare, which probably contributes to his speed-oriented dosage index of 5.18....though the stretch out to two turns was no impediment last time out.

Manly

I've not yet seen Thursday's much anticipated allowance race at Gulfstream. Thanks to Magna for pulling their races from Cal Racing, nice job there. And though I have Bob's login and password at both Equibase and Race Replays (and see that he has plenty of races left for the month at each....shame to have them go to waste), there seems to be some kind of mysterious ailment or conspiracy preventing today's races from being streamed at both sites.

However, a couple of comments nonetheless. As you likely know by now unless you've either been away on Mars or watching ESPN, Dunkirk stretched out and moved up to face winners successfully in his second start, in a race which Bloodhorse.com described as an important 3-year-old allowance race.

You may recall that I cautioned against getting too excited about this $3.7 million Coolmore purchase after he won his debut, pointing out the dawdling fractions that he closed into. "I'm not at all interested in any futures lines on this one," I wrote dismissively. Hmmm.

However, there was no denying the style with which he swept wide past the field (as a reader pointed out at the time), and the effort grew on me in the ensuing weeks despite the lackluster 78 Beyer.

No, I'm not just saying that now. And the proof is that, earlier this week, I was the only participant in the testosterone-fueled Paulick Derby Index to include the horse in my top ten. That's right. And an impressive collection of contributors it is; I'm humbled and a little embarrassed to have been included. If you missed it, the Paulick Derby Index is a survey of 22 writers and bloggers, mostly men, manly men, doing manly things like making lists of (mostly) manly horses. Even Ray Paulick himself, who runs the survey in a manly and masculine way, failed to mention Dunkirk, and will no doubt subject himself to punishment, perhaps by donning nipple rings and reading every last word of every Haskin Derby column going back to 1993.

Dunkirk will probably be all over those lists next week. But you heard it hear first, at least after I initially dissed him. Next week I'll have to move him up, probably to #1.

Having said that, I still wouldn't get too excited. Yes, he overcame trouble on the turn (or so I've heard) and a wide trip throughout; and got the last three furlongs in a very fine 37.09 seconds according to Formulator; final eighth in 13.09. And it certainly got my attention that Garrett Gomez came in from the west coast for the ride. But the term "Kentucky Derby hopefuls" has a wide connotation these days, and this field, supposedly filled with them, was largely inexperienced and untested.

I also don't much care for the fact that Pletcher, as manly and virile as he may be, has indicated that Dunkirk's next start won't be until the Florida Derby on March 28. That's over five weeks away, and no doubt the horse would go directly to the big race from there - with just one race in more than ten weeks, kinda like ESPN's coverage leading up to the Breeders' Cup. I just don't go for that, Big Brown or not (he raced on March 5, two weeks later than this race, before using the Florida Derby three+ weeks hence as the springboard to Derby glory). We know that the Toddster prefers longer rest, but we also know he hasn't done well in the Derby, so maybe a change of pace is in order. Let the horse race, he seems manly enough. I don't understand, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, why people stick with strategies which have failed them in the past.

The other observation about the race regards American Prayer Dance, the third place finisher in last fall's Remsen (who also races for Pletcher). He finished 6th, more than 15 lengths behind. This continues the pattern of horses who ran in the Remsen and are not named Old Fashioned performing in an extremely unmanly fashion as three-year olds. Second place finisher Atomic Rain, though a close second in his three-year old debut, finished 7th by 16 lengths at 5-2 in the Sam F. Davis. 4th place finisher Idol Maker was 10th by 22 lengths in the Holy Bull. And last place finisher Awesome Mich hasn't beaten a horse in his two races this year either.

Not saying this necessarily means anything, but it's certainly fair game to mention. After all, if it were the other way around and those horses were performing lights out this year, we'd sure be hearing plenty.