Manly

I've not yet seen Thursday's much anticipated allowance race at Gulfstream. Thanks to Magna for pulling their races from Cal Racing, nice job there. And though I have Bob's login and password at both Equibase and Race Replays (and see that he has plenty of races left for the month at each....shame to have them go to waste), there seems to be some kind of mysterious ailment or conspiracy preventing today's races from being streamed at both sites.

However, a couple of comments nonetheless. As you likely know by now unless you've either been away on Mars or watching ESPN, Dunkirk stretched out and moved up to face winners successfully in his second start, in a race which Bloodhorse.com described as an important 3-year-old allowance race.

You may recall that I cautioned against getting too excited about this $3.7 million Coolmore purchase after he won his debut, pointing out the dawdling fractions that he closed into. "I'm not at all interested in any futures lines on this one," I wrote dismissively. Hmmm.

However, there was no denying the style with which he swept wide past the field (as a reader pointed out at the time), and the effort grew on me in the ensuing weeks despite the lackluster 78 Beyer.

No, I'm not just saying that now. And the proof is that, earlier this week, I was the only participant in the testosterone-fueled Paulick Derby Index to include the horse in my top ten. That's right. And an impressive collection of contributors it is; I'm humbled and a little embarrassed to have been included. If you missed it, the Paulick Derby Index is a survey of 22 writers and bloggers, mostly men, manly men, doing manly things like making lists of (mostly) manly horses. Even Ray Paulick himself, who runs the survey in a manly and masculine way, failed to mention Dunkirk, and will no doubt subject himself to punishment, perhaps by donning nipple rings and reading every last word of every Haskin Derby column going back to 1993.

Dunkirk will probably be all over those lists next week. But you heard it hear first, at least after I initially dissed him. Next week I'll have to move him up, probably to #1.

Having said that, I still wouldn't get too excited. Yes, he overcame trouble on the turn (or so I've heard) and a wide trip throughout; and got the last three furlongs in a very fine 37.09 seconds according to Formulator; final eighth in 13.09. And it certainly got my attention that Garrett Gomez came in from the west coast for the ride. But the term "Kentucky Derby hopefuls" has a wide connotation these days, and this field, supposedly filled with them, was largely inexperienced and untested.

I also don't much care for the fact that Pletcher, as manly and virile as he may be, has indicated that Dunkirk's next start won't be until the Florida Derby on March 28. That's over five weeks away, and no doubt the horse would go directly to the big race from there - with just one race in more than ten weeks, kinda like ESPN's coverage leading up to the Breeders' Cup. I just don't go for that, Big Brown or not (he raced on March 5, two weeks later than this race, before using the Florida Derby three+ weeks hence as the springboard to Derby glory). We know that the Toddster prefers longer rest, but we also know he hasn't done well in the Derby, so maybe a change of pace is in order. Let the horse race, he seems manly enough. I don't understand, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, why people stick with strategies which have failed them in the past.

The other observation about the race regards American Prayer Dance, the third place finisher in last fall's Remsen (who also races for Pletcher). He finished 6th, more than 15 lengths behind. This continues the pattern of horses who ran in the Remsen and are not named Old Fashioned performing in an extremely unmanly fashion as three-year olds. Second place finisher Atomic Rain, though a close second in his three-year old debut, finished 7th by 16 lengths at 5-2 in the Sam F. Davis. 4th place finisher Idol Maker was 10th by 22 lengths in the Holy Bull. And last place finisher Awesome Mich hasn't beaten a horse in his two races this year either.

Not saying this necessarily means anything, but it's certainly fair game to mention. After all, if it were the other way around and those horses were performing lights out this year, we'd sure be hearing plenty.