Picking Losers

John Hertler doesn't get to the winner's circle too often - an 8% win percentage over the last two years - but he's certainly a capable trainer, and one who makes a significant impact on the tote board when he does. Hertler had two winners at the Big A on Friday - See More Spirit ($19), in the third, and Goodbyeandgoodluck ($29.20) in the 7th. Each of the barn's past 14 winners on this circuit have paid at least 5-1, and three have scored at double digit odds. I actually thought that the longer priced of the two looked like a more likely winner, as he had at least shown some speed, and was in the money this class two out of his last three.

See Some Spirit had some nice back form, but looked outclassed in open company. However here he prevailed despite being solidly four wide for the entire final turn.

Back in second and 4th was the Ken Ramsey-owned entry of Targe and Almighty Silver, beaten favorites at 4-5. Mentioned yesterday that the stable was starting to get some wins, but it's still buyer beware for this owner and his main trainer Michael Maker (he also runs some horses for Charlton Baker). They've now had five horses go off at even money or less - and I'm being generous in counting this entry as only one - and four of them have lost.

Seems like I've been writing lately as much or more about losers as I have about winners. But to me, knowing how to pick losers is what beating this game is all about. You hear a lot of different opinions on what "the key" is in, for example baseball. It's starting pitching, or it's the bullpen, or it's not leaving runners on, or getting them to scoring position. Similarly, we all have our different takes on what "the key" is in handicapping. I think it's identifying the horses who are bet down to odds way lower than their realistic chance to win. My goal is to limit my wagering to races in which I can throw the favorite out, and choose amongst the others, whose odds are therefore skewed in my view. If the odds in a race are roughly in line with what they should be in my opinion, I pass. Well, not always, because I'm not sufficiently disciplined. But that's my goal.

I've certainly written before and in more detail about this, but it always bears repeating, I think. When I'm handicapping on the fly and/or trying to pick out races to bet from vast simulcast options, it just takes a look at the favorite. In only a few seconds, you can pick out a false favorite. You know the usual suspects - a horse doing something it's never been asked to do, as Harvey Pack always says, being chief amongst them. Others are habitual short-priced losers, suspicious drops, or horses from ice cold barns. Just takes a quick glance, and it's almost guaranteed that you'll find at least a couple any day that you're at the track or perusing the menu at home. If I'm limiting myself to these opportunities and tossing bad favorites, then I'm betting horses with value all day long.

Even if I'm wrong, I still know that I did the right thing. Bad favorites can still win, but they're still bad value, and, in the long run, concentrating on defeating them is the only way to maintain a consistent edge and hold one's own in this nutty game, at least in my view. And the cool things are that it doesn't take much work to pick them out....and that you never know when or where you'll find them. There are always surprises out there once the tote board opens, so it pays to not give up on a race just because the advance handicapping doesn't bear fruit.