Twilight Zone

- The Friday twilight cards at Belmont seem to be slowly gaining in popularity; it’s becoming like a cult. You hear people saying things like: "This is the best kept secret in New York." There’s something about an early start to a weekend on a gorgeous summer late afternoon that creates a mellow, yet exhilarating buzz. Add in the sport of kings, and people can get downright delirious. The crowds have gotten a bit bigger each week, and NYRA announced that the Sept 1 card at Saratoga would be a late post as well, with VP Bill Nader said “There is a different energy at a twilight Friday and there is a real upbeat feel to the day.” [Times Union]

And there really is, especially when the card is as interesting as it was on Friday. I walked in 20 minutes before the third and Yolanda B Too was the 4-5 favorite. She was scratched at the gate in the Missy Mirage last weekend, which helped contribute to the two horse field in that race. Frankel had one of his TNT Stud/Brazilian specials in Notre Dame, who broke into the win column in her last. She was around 2-1 when I got there. But in the final minutes as post time approached, the money poured in on Notre Dame, pounding her to even money favoritism, as the shaken Yolanda B Too floated up to 3-2.

But on the last flash, it was Yolanda B Too getting slammed to 6-5. That was still good enough for only second choice in the five horse field by a few thousand dollars. The show pool told a different story though – over $19.000 on Notre Dame, but only $4500 on Yolanda B Too, which wasn’t much more than the show money on the 5-1 third choice. According to my theory, this would indicate that the “smart” money was on the second choice.

And in this case, that money was right. Notre Dame made a run leaving the turn, but Yolanda B Too won pretty easily. It’s her second win in a row since coming back off her very distant 12th in the Distaff, which is not just a key race, nor just a super key race, but a super-duper key race! I mean, the last three finishers, about a mile behind Pleasant Home, were Yolanda, Healthy Addiction, who’s won a Grade 1 and ran second in another, and Happy Ticket, who has run her eyeballs out even in the two of her four subsequent races in which she just got beat. Imagine if the first three finishers hadn’t all been retired. Or maybe the were retired because they ran too damn fast!

The 4th was a baby maiden special race, and Allan Jerkins had an entry of well-bred first time starters (fillies by Elusive Quality and Pulpit). They were bet right from the start on the way to 4-5 at post time. But Magical Ride, the 5-2 morning line favorite, languished at 4-1. This despite the fact that right there in the Closer Look column, in plain English for everyone who shelled out the money for the Form to see, was the fact that this debuting daughter of Storm Cat is out of Victory Ride, who not only won the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga, but won her debut by 14 lengths.

Yet she only drifted down a bit by post time, going off a shade under 7-2. Dead on the board? Not for me in this case. I think that sometimes bettors can get a little nutty with betting entries, even if its components are unknown factors, as was the case here. It’s like a crowd psychology of “two for the price of one”, and in the exactas in particular, people figure that ‘well, one of them has to at least run second.” So in this case, I checked out the exacta payoffs, and did something right, putting Victory Ride on top of the 3rd-4th-5th choices (including Cherokee Shiek, who Walter was following here), leaving the entry out. Victory Ride won by four despite Jara dropping the whip. When Five Star Daydream came up for second, it was a rare win for me; and, with the entry out of the exacta, a solid $50 payoff for the second and third betting choices in order.

Well, it was my only win of the day, but I made sure to leave myself with a slight profit just for the psychological benefits. Good things can start with small steps.

The fifth race is no doubt what racing secretary PJ Campo had in mind last year when he started carding these turf sprints. I didn’t like them at the time. I found the races unbettable since the horses had no relevant prior form. But I was being shortsighted, and the races continue to be popular, and for good reason. With some history to them now, they’re becoming great to bet and to watch. This one was wide open, but the bettors settled on Sweet September. I posted about her last race here, noting that she had a picture perfect trip that day. So I took a shot against with Smart Crowd, first-time turf for Lisa Lewis.

Unfortunately, she got hooked up in a speed duel with Sweet September; setting up a rousing three horse finish, with 32-1 OK To Pay overcoming repeated trouble in the stretch to get up in her turf debut for Richard Stolkosa.

And Melhor Ainda graced us with her presence in the Capade Stakes, making her first start since running 7th in the Flower Bowl last October. She was facing some pretty nice horses with good recent form, but was 3-5, and held Bright Abundance safe by a length. It was a classy effort to be sure. She was fifth behind a pace that was as slow as that of the subsequent state-bred maiden race, and rallied three wide in a final 2 ½ furlongs of 30.13. I imagine that graded stakes company will be next.

- Jazil will skip the Jim Dandy and train up to the Travers. Kiaran McLaughlin told the Form: "With this particular horse it's not a big deal.....He's a light-framed horse who doesn't need a lot of racing or training." Not only that, but the trainer added: "He won't work that often because he doesn't require a lot of work." Well, then what exactly is he going to do all summer? YOU CAN’T JUST HANG OUT ALL SUMMER AND DO NOTHING!! (Oh, the kids are here and I got confused.)

Quickie

- OK, been a busy 48 hours, as I try to get some NYC summer culture in before packing up for Saratoga. But time for a quick update before I head out to today's twilight card at Belmont.

Highland Cat is NOT running tomorrow. Bill Turner decided against entering him because, and I quote: the horse wasn't quite right, a euphemism for trainer's intuition, since there was nothing physical that Bill could specifically point to.

Hmmm. Maybe he doesn't like the heat? It's been at least six weeks now since his rousing second place finish. Turner will take him out on the track tomorrow, and if he looks OK, he'll be entered in a 45K maiden claimer on the grass on Wednesday. Probably a better spot for him than the maiden special anyway.

- Check this out: Pletcher has 12 horses entered to run in stakes this weekend, most of them favorites or second choices, in 10 stakes races at six different tracks.

- Barbaro slept on his side last night, and Dr. Richardson told the AP that he's doing "much better" today. That will probably be a disappointment to this moron.

News and Notes - July 13

- It was obvious after the Woodward that Nick Zito would have to get Commentator to be able to relax, lest he attract more killer rabbit attacks as he did that day. According to jockey Elbar Coa, Zito has accomplished what he needed to.

"I've run against (Commentator) before, and I really thought he was going to be very aggressive…..It really surprised me that he broke fast, but he relaxed for me. I was able to do anything I wanted to him…..This year, he's more professional, which is going to help him. I believe (Zito) can really do whatever he wants with this horse." [Albany Times Union]

But we’ll have to wait a while to see him run again; Zito said that he’ll pass the Whitney and be pointed to either the Woodward or the Forego, both to be run on Sept 2.

- Here’s a report, via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page, that, in 2004, the NTRA contributed $10,000 to the campaign of Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Va, the co-sponsor of the bill passed by the House that outlaws most forms of online gambling, but with horse racing, covered separately by the Interstate Horseracing Act, excluded. In an editorial, the website The Online Wire takes aim at what it calls the hypocrisy of the exemption.

"This [online gambling] is a scourge on our society. It causes innumerable problems." Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., co-sponsor of HR 4411 said. "The Scourge" is where the cookie crumbles. Bob Goodlatte strangely forgets to mention that an individual can lose his shirt wagering on horses or placing bets on sports. The "moral" issue allegedly supporting the approval of the ban on online gambling fails to explain why horse wagering is not immoral, albeit being an "illegal" form of gambling, at least according to the DoJ.

Well, perhaps they have a point; if, that is, you don’t think that the whole idea of outlawing online gambling is ridiculous to start with. Whatsmore, Bloodhorse quoted Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley as saying: “If we do not adopt this amendment [stripping out the exemption], the entire debate is a farce. The most special, special interest is the (NTRA)."

All I can say is: GO BABY GO!! Well-targeted campaign contributions! Being labeled a special interest by a member of Congress! The NTRA is playing the game, just the way everyone else does. Who says they're not doing anything right!?

- Here’s another ‘little guy’ story, and there seems to be a fair amount of little guys these days. Artistic Fella was purchased at sale for the grand sum of $13,000; now, riding an eight-race winning streak, he’s the 7-5 favorite in the Meadowlands Pace on Saturday night. (With six weeks in Saratoga just around the bend, my chances of getting the Head Chef to agree to go there may be termed as ‘slim.') Artistic Fella, by Pacific Fella (who is by Cam Fella, one of my all-time favorites) has already won over $400,000, and can go over the million mark with a win in this million dollar pace. He also has a good chance to shatter the stakes mark of 1:48.3 set by Rocknroll Hanover last year; he missed that mark by a fifth of a second in his elimination heat win last weekend.

- Saturday’s Summit of Speed at Calder is a fine event, and one that I’ll pass in its entirely, at least from a betting standpoint. I find sprint stakes such as these to be largely indecipherable, and feel that my efforts would be as fruitless as trying to bring peace to the Middle East. There are two Grade 1s on the day, the first ever at Calder, and each will feature a marquee name and big favorite. Lost in the Fog heads the Smile Stakes, and Dubai Escapade heads the Princess Rooney for fillies and mares.

Lost in the Fog will carry 125 pounds, and hasn’t scared anyone away. Twelve are entered to face him, including Kelly’s Landing, the runner-up in the Aristides, the last race for both colts. Greg Gilchrist was asked if the sprint champ was as good as last year, and he replied: "In my estimation, he's fine and just as good. He hasn't forgotten how to run." [Sun-Sentinal]

Dubai Escapade will face only six opponents, including last year’s Rooney winner Leave me Alone, and is listed at 4-5.

Barbaro's Condition Deteriorates

- From the beginning of Barbaro’s ordeal, doctors warned of the danger of the Derby winner developing laminitis in his good hoof. Dr. Larry Bramlage told the NY Times today, “Laminitis is usually the terminal event for any horse that has had a severe orthopedic surgery."

And now those fears have been realized. Dr. Dean Richardson said that it’s "as bad a case as you can get," and called his prospects for recovery “poor.” If there’s any good news here, it’s that the horse still appears comfortable.

"He nickers, he's eating well, he has excellent G.I. function, his temperature is normal, his heart rate is good, and he is capable of walking around his stall.” [Bloodhorse]

Nonetheless, the dark clouds over the sport that had largely dispersed through two months of good news are gathering again, and just as the action is about to move to the usually euphoric meetings at Del Mar and Saratoga. Barring what would now seem to be a miraculous recovery, they may linger for quite awhile.

Conflicts of Interest - On and Off Track

- James Odato, in the Albany Times Union today, writes of some possible links between bidders for the New York franchise and Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who is widely believed to be around 1-9 to be the governor of the state when the issue is finally decided. We mentioned previously the mysterious bidder WNY Gaming, about which no one knows a thing about. Odato reports that the group is represented by a lawyer named Tim Toohey, who is the father of Spitzer's campaign manager. (The elder Toohey was also recently convicted of tax fraud, but he says that he's only a representative of the company...which you'd think would want to put a better public face on their anonymous selves....in fact, what are they thinking about!?)

Also, Stuart Shorenstein, one of the top lobbyists for MGM Grand, a logical partner for NYRA, is a campaign contributor to the likely governor-to-be.

With his wife, Janice, and others living at his address, Shorenstein has contributed heavily to Spitzer -- more than $29,600 since 2001.

Christine Anderson, a spokeswoman for the Spitzer campaign, said the candidate would deal independently on who gets the racing franchise regardless of ties to bidders. [Albany Times Union]

A commenter to the previous post has some harsh comments about Delaware North's administration of racing at the Finger Lakes.

Finger Lakes purse structure and disgusting stable conditions make this a big red flag. They increased purses only marginally in the beginning and not a penny since and have not put a dime into the back side. The Racino is very nice, and concessions superior to NYRA, but when you arrive you are forced to walk through the casino to get to the track, ughhh!

One would hope that the presence of the horsemen in the partnership would ensure that they're taken care of in terms of both purse monies and backstretch conditions; but this does, once again, highlight the fact that corporations will naturally put the most priority into that which generates the most cash.

- I don't mean to be a bummer, but these latest developments on Barbaro's condition are ominous. When Dr. Richardson says that the situation is "potentially serious, and we are aggressively seeking all treatment options," it makes me feel as if we should start to prepare for the worst. In Maryland, they were still looking backwards yesterday, as officials gathered to once again dissect the tapes of that awful day. "We agreed unanimously that the evidence is inconclusive," said chairman John P. McDaniel.... We found no untoward action taken by any jockey or horse to cause Barbaro to have a broken right hind leg." [Baltimore Sun] And why don't we just leave it at that.

In Illinois, state officials are trying to prevent more breakdowns by launching a thorough investigation into why 17 horses have broken down at Arlington thus far this year. Although the track passed an inspection by an outside consultant, it remains the prime suspect.

"The only common denominator is that the horses were running on the same track, and I think that's something we need to look into," [Racing Board Commissioner John] Simon said. He conceded the possibility, as Arlington officials have maintained, that the cluster of breakdowns may be a statistical anomaly. [Chicago Tribune]

One local trainer, Christine Janks, writes in Bloodhorse that there may be a conflict between what's best for her colleagues and for the horses that pay their bills.

The Illinois Racing Board needs new rules and stricter standards to ensure that only racing-sound horses are going to the post. The track has a conflict of interest in that it needs to fill races by encouraging entries. Many practicing veterinarians simply do what the trainer says if they want to keep their jobs. Jockeys do not want to scratch horses and lose business, either.

The horses are running for their lives, and who is there to protect them? In many cases, training is big business and horsemanship is secondary to promotion. Get one more race out of them, drop them down, and get them claimed. If they break down, fill the stall the next day with another young face. Do we really think that we can grow the business of racing by making these marvelous animals just part of the equipment?

Notes - July 11

- Reader Steve D pointed out that the 10% stakes-winners-from foals standard that has been used for years to determine the ‘elite’ sires is out-of-date, due to the large foal crops that stallions can sire these days. I kinda knew that, but I’ve never read an official announcement that the standard has been lowered to 8.5% or anything, so I just went with the party line.

However, there’s no doubt that Smart Strike is indeed amongst the very most elite with his 9%, and these highlights from the Thoroughbred Times Stallion Directory show how effective he’s been:

• Sire of 14% stakes winners/starters
• Sire of 25% stakes horses from starters
• Ranked in top 1% of all sires by SWs/starters, GSWs/starters, stakes horses/starters, avg. earnings/starter, and avg. earnings/start.
• North America's #1 sire by 2005 stakes wins by progeny (22).
• Sire of 22 stakes horses in 2005, including SHADOW CAST (Personal Ensign S.-G1), $2.1-million-earner SOARING FREE, and graded turf millionaire ENGLISH CHANNEL.

[Ugh, Shadow Cast. I blew it with her in the Personal Ensign last summer; she was 17-1, and I had her keyed on top in exactas, triples, and the late double that day at Saratoga, and only a small saver to win....] Anyway, if you have a Smart Strike who makes it to the starting gate, statistically, for whatever that’s worth, you have a 25% chance of finishing in the money in a stakes race; that’s not bad.

He’s off to a good start in July. Besides English Channel, he has Fabulous Strike, who graced the pages of this blog with his picture the other day before winning a stakes at Belmont. And a three-year old filly, Strike Softly, won a $150,000 sprint stakes on the grass at Woodbine on Sunday – she’s from the female family of the Canadian champ Wilderness Song.

And Smart Strike has an undefeated two-year old filly in England who won a stakes on the first day of this month. Hope’n’Charity, out of an unraced mare by Sky Classic, is entered back in another stakes on Wednesday, a Group 2, and that’s two races in 11 days.

- Barbaro doing well, reads the headline in today’s Form, and that’s the first positive thing we’ve read in a few days.

- I’m on the Empire Racing Associates email list, so I got the press release about their alliance with Delaware North, and the full scoop on the company. Besides having the three racinos in New York, they own “racing operations” in Arizona, Florida, West Virginia (Wheeling) and Arkansas (Southland Greyhound).

But racing is hardly the company’s only business. In fact, go to their home page, and tell me where the information on racetracks are. I’ll wait for a minute while you look.............[Commentator is 3-5 against five NY-breds at Belmont in the third tomorrow.]............OK, so you see that you can quickly link to information on their hotels, the Premium Club in Boston, their open-air marketplaces, the Boston Bruins (owned by CEO Jeremy Jacobs, not popular with all Bruins fans), their stadium and airport concessions operations, and their hospitality services – they manage guest services for locales like Yosemite Park and the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia and Denver. But where's the racing? I couldn't even find the names of the tracks that they operate in Florida or Arizona anywhere on their site. [A free Left at the Gate T-shirt, when I make them some day, to anyone who can find them.]

If you go to the top left corner and click on ‘About Delaware North Companies,’ you’ll find another page, and there you’ll see a selection called Gaming and Entertainment. I guess that includes racing, right? Here’s what it says:

Delaware North Companies Gaming & Entertainment is a leader in its industry. The company has become known as one of the most innovative gaming and racing operators in the county, specializing in racing venues with added amenities, including video gaming machines. Widely known in the industry as racinos, they combine the best in racing with the added dimension of casino-style gaming.

While focusing our efforts on creating regional entertainment destinations, we have wide experience in the development and promotion of gaming operations, and have developed excellent relationships with the states and the lottery commissions and staff in those states. We have very experienced gaming management personnel making up the core of the company's gaming expertise.

Not all that much about horse racing there. Now, I’m not trying to suggest any ulterior motives on their part nor question their intentions, just making the point that they’re far, far bigger than they look from the perspective of New York, where they own three small racetracks. And despite all the spin we’ve heard from them so far – "Empire Racing is the best choice to revive racing in the state" - in a few years, the New York racing portion of the New York franchise will be just another item making up the bottom line, and not a very big one compared with the racinos at Aqueduct and Belmont, not to mention any or all of their other ventures. Once the racing in this state goes corporate, it'll be a whole new ballgame.

Having said that, Delaware North has experience running tracks and casinos, and in hospitality, and we all like it when it’s hospitable at our racetracks. Of course, it’s a big jump from Saratoga Harness to Saratoga Race Course, but that’s where the experience of the horsemen of Empire Racing should come in. It seems like a good combination – or a least worst one, at least – as long as the horsemen can hold their ground against the Delaware North accountants if things start getting rough.

- This is the first time I’ve seen the pp lines of Commentator since the fiasco in the Woodward, and the comment line for that race says, appropriately, under attack. No rabbits in sight this time, and it should be a public workout and an easy $39,000 for Zito’s Whitney winner. "He's doing fabulous," said Zito. "The owner is getting excited, the help is getting excited, and the trainer is getting excited.” [Daily Racing Form]

Yikes!

- Whether or not you fully appreciated Lava Man's win in the Hollywood Gold Cup, you just MUST check out this photo taken right at the start, via the Final Turn Gallery. As a poster on the Derby List said, YIKES!

- The 4th race at Belmont on Sunday was pretty cool; one of those six furlong grass races for maidens that we'll surely be seeing a lot of at Saratoga. I mentioned Left Me Breathless after her last start, when she was dead on the board in her debut at 17-1 despite a stellar turf pedigree. She closed a ton for second that day, so it was no surprise that she was the 3-2 favorite here.

But a couple of first time starters attracted a lot of money. Dowell House is trained by Todd Pletcher, so what do you expect? Plus, she’s by Danzig out of Pico Teneriffe, a multiple graded stakes winner on grass. She was the 7-2 second choice. John Ward had a first-timer too. Ocean Fever was the 4th choice at 5-1. At $450,000, she's another high-priced Oxley/Ward purchase, but a look at Formlator showed that for Ward to send one out on the grass first-time is very rare - to the tune of just twice over the last three years. She's by Fusaichi Pegasus (still looking for his second North American stakes winner of the year - his Shermanesque was second in the Bashford Manor on Saturday), out of Ocean Cat, a stakes winning daughter of Storm Cat. Her second dam is the Grade 1 (Matron, Delaware Oaks) winner Pacific Princess.

But the firsters were no factor, as longshot Brouhaha opened up a big lead, and managed to hold off Left Me Breathless, who no doubt will benefit from a stretchout. The Frank Alexander-trainee is from a more modest background - by Mecke, and a "mere" $130,000 two-year old purchase; but she has a little turf pedigree of her own, being inbred 4x4 to Dr. Fager, and 5x5 to Tom Fool.

- Thanks to reader Stalusk for visiting, and for pointing out that Grey Swallow has been sold to Australian interests and is done racing in the U.S, at least for now. He's due to be shipped down under later this month, and will be prepared for a start in the W. S. Cox Plate (Aus-G1), Australasia's weight-for-age championship, in October. [Thoroughbred Times]

Turf Division Heats Up

- I’ve been trying all day to watch a replay of the United Nations Handicap. Monmouth offers their races for free via Race Replays, but I can’t seem to get the software going no matter which browser or computer I try. Then I remembered that I’d taped the show on TVG in which they play all the stakes races.....but when I went to play it, I saw that I’d taped Racing 101 instead.

So I haven’t actually seen the race, but I was glad to see that Cacique and English Channel mixed it up again, with surprising favorite Relaxed Gesture (4th choice in the morning line) not far behind. The trio, along with Grey Swallow finished within a half length of each other in the Manhattan, and wouldn’t it be cool if all four of them got together for the Arlington Million?

I think that’s what they had in mind for the Thoroughbred Championship Tour – that the series of races would allow horses in each division to knock heads regularly and develop some rivalries and a little personality to the group as a whole. This turf group is developing a little bit of that, and perhaps we’ll see them one or two more times before they all have their horseheads handed to them by the Europeans in the Breeders Cup.

The presence of Shake The Bank in the UN no doubt helped English Channel, who definitely seems to prefer having a target to run at, and the targets don’t get any bigger than this rabbit, who has been mercilessly used in this fashion five times now since being acquired specifically for that purpose a year ago. I wonder if he still has any idea of how to be an actual racehorse, even if he was put back to five furlongs, a distance at which he was stakes placed in April 2005. His intended beneficiary, Better Talk Now, was indeed dead on the board and finished 5th; he'll have to bounce back in a big way to be a factor down the stretch.

English Channel is by Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector), at 9% stakes-winners-from-foals, just below the 10% mark considered to comprise the elite for the profession. He’s out of an unraced dam by turf champ Theatrical who’s a full sister to the multiple graded grass winner Hap. English Channel’s second dam is Committed, a four time champion in England and France. Pletcher has mentioned the Sword Dancer at Saratoga as a possible alternative to the Million.

News and Notes - July 10

- Sounds like TVG's Simon Bray has his 2007 Derby horse, at least for now. He was excited by the stretch run of Circular Quay, another impressive Pletcher juvenile, who took the G3 Bashford Manor at Churchill. Bray started talking about “three-year old classics” and “pedigree” and “ability to stretch out,” and you know exactly what he’s talking about. He’s rallied from way back after poor starts in each of his two races, both wins, and that always gets people excited. Including Demi O’Byrne, the racing manager for owner Michael Tabor, who said of the winner, "The excitement is, that being by Thunder Gulch, we could be here next spring if everything went great." [Louisville Courier-Journal] So here we go. Circular Quay is out of Grade 1 winner (Spinaway) Circle of Life (Belong to Me).

Pletcher just missed sweeping the two juvenile stakes on the day when Chagall got nailed late by Richwoman in the G3 Debutante; the last stakes winner for Steve Asmussen that I know of before his six month suspension starts today. Tabor is also one of the owners of Chagall, and unlike Circular Quay, who was bred by his wife, this one cost $825,000 this past February.

Successful Appeal is the sire of each of the first two finishers in the Debutante, but he was likely rooting for Chagall. Richwoman won the Cinderella Stakes earlier in the year, and thus remains his only stakes winner for 2006. Richwoman is from the female family of the million dollar earning mare Videogenic, who won more races, 20, than most horses even go to the post these days; and that was only yesterday, in the mid-80's!

- As for Asmussen, it seems as if he’s slinking away rather quietly. He’s taken responsibility for the drug positive in Louisiana that has led to the six month vacation while insisting that neither he nor anyone under his employ has any knowledge of what caused it. He was the leading trainer in North America for the last two years, and in any other sport, news like this about such a prominent figure would likely bring far more fanfare than the rather cursory attention it’s brought in this case. In fact, if you Google News “Steve Asmussen” today, you instead get a bunch of stories about the Rangers signing Brendan Shanahan, with a little note about Asmussen below (after the disturbing Barbaro stories) If our sport is playing second fiddle to hockey, that’s not a good sign. What it says about me that these are my two favorite sports, I can’t really say.

Asmussen also has a possible six-month suspension from a positive in New Mexico to deal with; I wonder if that would have to be served separately from this one?

- Lava Man is beat after his grueling effort in the Gold Cup.

"He's tired, but his legs were tight," said trainer Doug O'Neill, who has won the Gold Cup three times from only three starters. "He left some grain (in his feed tub). He put his body down yesterday."

How often do you read anything other than “he ate up” from trainers? O’Neill said that the Pacific Classic is next, but added the qualifier “if he bounces back.” [SGV Tribune]

On the other hand, English Channel came out of his win in the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth quite well. He turned the tables on Cacique this time, which annoys me considering that I had him singled and touted all over the place in the Manhattan.

“He looked very good this morning," Pletcher said….. "He'll either go in the ($500,000, Grade I) Sword Dancer (at Saratoga on Aug. 12) or the Arlington Million. They're both on the same day so we'll play it by ear a little while and see how they're shaping up." [NY Daily News]

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Commentator is entered in the third at Belmont on Wednesday, a NY-bred stakes event.

Bluegrass Cat worked five furlongs in 1:00.42 (3/31) at Belmont this morning.

- After Market remained undefeated on the grass, and overall with his win over a small field in the G3 Lexington at Belmont on Sunday. He veered in sharply in the stretch, and Matt Carrothers on TVG already had him taken down; but a closer look revealed that he was already clear of To Sender. Bill Mott said:

(Jockey Cornelio Velasquez) hit him today and he went on, but when he went to hit him again, he ducked in. I think the horse was anticipating him hitting him. I would hate to put blinkers on him because he is a little rank already. I would like to go the Hall of Fame Stakes with him. I’m sure the owner will have some input. He’s also nominated to the Secretariat [Grade 1, $400,000, 3yo, 10 furlongs, turf, August 12, Arlington Park].” [NYRA]

I discussed this one’s pedigree in this post, written after he won and paid $20 in his debut. He’s by Storm Cat, and a full brother to a $9.7 million yearling last September at Keeneland, which we’ve forgotten about now after The Green Monkey. His dam, the Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, is a half-sister to Benchmark, the sire of Brother Derek; and this is also the distaff family of the Belmont winner Cavaet.

Swaps Fizzles

- The Swaps started out in promising fashion, with Point Determined again in close pursuit of AP Warrior, and track announcer Vic Stauffer noting, as he did in the Affirmed, that it was AP Warrior who seemed to be going easier than his foe. Rivalries are a good thing for the sport, and even one between two horses from a California contingent which has proven to be cut below when raced out of state would add some juice to the three-year old picture.

But the duel, which started out in such promising fashion, quickly fizzled out. AP Warrior checked out rather feebly before even getting out of the final turn. This colt has never followed up a big effort with a similar one. Point Determined tired from his efforts, and a final three furlongs in 38.60 contributed to the winning rally of Arson Squad, who also benefited from a perfect trip behind the dueling leaders, who went to the six furlong in 1:09.85.

However, give credit to the winner, who is now 3-0-3 in six starts, with two of those thirds, and now one of the wins in graded stakes. He’s a $100,000 yearling purchase, and trainer Bruce Headley gave credit to the owners for picking him out.

"I have to give credit to Samantha and Don Devine for finding this horse. They came and asked me to look at him and I really liked him. He has a great top [sire] line, he was very correct and a good mover. He had everything about him that made him look like a runner." [LA Times]

Arson Squad has now won almost $300,000 and has probably already done enough to earn a career at stud. Perhaps like his sire, Brahms, a Danzig stallion standing for $10,000 at Vinery. According to Equiline.com, he has 141 foals in his second crop, two-year olds of this year. He has four stakes winners from his first one, and besides Arson Squad, that includes Up An Octave, who took the Forerunner on the grass at Keeneland in April. No surprise there; Brahms was a grass horse, who took the Grade 1 Early Times Hollywood Derby as a three-year old in 2000. Arson Squad has some turf on his distaff side as well, being out of a daughter by Green Dancer (Nijinksy) (though he has a low Tomlinson of 233).

Lava Man Hangs On

- Wow, what a finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup, as Lava Man got all he could handle from the absolute unlikeliest horse in the field to do so. Ace Blue, a deserving 24-1 longest shot in the field, looked finished on the turn as he dropped back after briefly attaining the lead from Magnum. In fact, announcer Vic Stauffer said at that point that “Ace Blue will watch those two run away” as Lava Man and Magnum sprinted around the turn. But incredibly, he came back on, and slowly but surely cut into the lead of Lava Man, who had to work hard to put away a stubborn Magnum.

And it seems to me that Ace Blue did indeed pass the 3-5 favorite as they came under the wire, losing the decision only on an unfortunate head bob at the wire. Trainer Doug O’Neill thought that he had lost. Ace Blue’s rider Victor Espinoza said, "One more jump, and I would have got him.” [LA Times] I think that he may have had him a half-jump before the wire as well.

Lava Man stumbled at the start and was taken out of his usual front-running game when that allowed Magnum to grab the lead. He had to do some really serious running around the turn to even engage Magnum, as that one was zipping from the three-quarters to the mile mark in 23.23 seconds. And then when he finally put that one away, he held off – though just barely – Ace Blue, to whom he was conceding ten pounds. There was a lot of adversity to overcome, but as jockey Corey Nakatani noted, "He does whatever you ask him to do. Turf, dirt, on the lead or coming from off it. What more can you ask of him?" [Mercury News]

- As the field turned for home in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes, the track announcer noted that “the front two in the market are the last two in the race.” Favorites Ouija Board and David Junior trailed the field, but the pace was quick up front, thanks in part to Royal Achemist, who was purchased during the week to be entered as a rabbit on David Junior’s behalf.

From that point on, it was strictly a tale of two trips. Jockey Christophe Soumillon tried to weave Ouija Board through the thicket of the field, and was repeatedly stopped, leaned on, and ultimately took a stumble and dropped well back. She showed her tremendous class just coming back to finish 5th. In the meantime, Jamie Spencer waited patiently on David Junior, and found a clear path home to win by a length and a half. Winning trainer Brian Meehan said, “I suppose you have got to say that the pace in the Prince Of Wales’ caught him out....He came from last turning in and picked up but he’s a seriously, seriously good horse. We’re back where we need to be and now we’ll take a breather.” [Sunday Herald]

As for Ouija Board, her racing manager Peter Stanley said that she came out of the ordeal OK, and mentioned the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes as a possible next start.

“She’s a little bit bruised and sore but she’s fine after the race,” said Peter Stanley, racing manager to Ouija Board’s owner Lord Derby.

“We’ll see how she is in the next week or 10 days and see where we go after that.

“She’s had three runs in quite quick succession but we’ll keep an eye on the King George field and see how she comes out of the Eclipse.

“At this stage, I wouldn’t rule it in and I wouldn’t rule it out.” [Ireland Online]

- Prioress winner Wildcat Bettie B benefited from a torrid pace up front to take the Grade 1 race. It looked like 18-1 Wild Gams was going to be the beneficiary of the hot fractions, but the winner ran by in the final yards. “I'm glad it's a long lane," said jockey Mario Pino.

It’s the third stakes win of the year for Wildcat Bettie B, who remains the only stakes winner of this year for her sire Meadowlake, 6% stakes winners from foals over his stud career.

- The New York Times is reporting today that Empire Racing Associates has indeed enlisted Delaware North, the Buffalo-based owner of the Finger Lakes, as their partner in the bid for the New York franchise. The company’s holdings also include the Saratoga harness track, and the Fairgrounds Gaming and Raceway (the former Buffalo Raceway).

Saturday Morning Notes - July 8

- Once again, we’re seeing horses that were sent to Dubai going down with injuries. Brass Hat is done for the year, and perhaps for good. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence; trainer Buff Bradley attributed it to bad luck: "He was pulling up when he took a bad step." He also said it would be months before it can be determined whether he can return to racing. Brass Hat finished second in the World Cup, and was subsequently disqualified for a prohibited medication.

Also out for the year is the Golden Shaheen Sprint, and Grade 1 Malibu winner Proud Tower Too. "He did it two weeks ago when he had his first work back [after Dubai]," [trainer Sal] Gonzalez said. "He'll be out for four months, and we'll have to start all over. It happens." [Daily Racing Form]

And the Form also reports that Brother Derek will not make it to the Haskell, and it sounds as if he’s done for the summer altogether.

Hendricks said it is unclear when Brother Derek will return. Brother Derek could start in the $100,000 El Cajon Stakes at Del Mar on Sept. 2, using the race as a prep to the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs on Sept. 23. [Daily Racing Form]

- Reader Greg asked why Steve Asmussen is not appealing the six-month suspension handed down by Louisiana racing officials, and here’s the explanation straight from the horse trainer’s mouth: "I appealed it to the commission and the legal advice I received was that at civil court it would not be reduced......I'm very much looking forward to getting it behind me." [Thoroughbred Times]

And yes, the suspension does apply to all jurisdictions. Asmussen said that most of his clients will turn their horses over to the care of his assistant, Scott Blasi. Given all the horses he has all over the country, I imagine that Blasi is effectively the trainer for many of them anyway. Blasi has worked for Asmussen for 11 years. As a trainer, he has won with 19 of 65 starters. [DRF]

Notes - July 8

That's Garrett Gomez getting on board Sun King, the 1-4 favorite in the $65,000 Albert the Great stakes at Belmont on Friday. Sun King's change of career to dead closer had served him well, and this was his first race since his agonizing, for me, loss at 6-1 to Silver Train in the Met Mile. Here he was prepping for the Whitney in what Zito thought was going to be an easy spot.

The problem was that it was only a four horse field, and one without too much speed. As a closer, Sun King has little control over his own fate. It's like when a baseball team needs its competitor to lose in order to have a chance to overtake it in the standings. He can run the race of his life, but for the most part he'll need the proper pace setup in order to have a chance (not to mention a clear path home). He didn't get it here, and he had little chance to catch Premium Tap, who showed no sign of tiring while getting the last 2 1/2 furlongs in 30.40 seconds.

But it was a perfectly fine effort by Sun King, and it should set him up for the Whitney well. He can certainly expect to find a bigger field and is likely to get a more contentious pace.

For Premium Tap, it was a win in his stakes debut. He is by Pleasant Tap, and he's out of a mare by the Wood winner and Belmont runner-up Thirty Six Red. He's inbred 3x4 to Stage Door Johnny, which you don't see every day. His third dam was a stakes winner on the grass in France, and the dam of turf champ Tight Spot (as well as the Hollywood Futurity winner Valiant Nature).



This is Fabulous Strike, the 4-5 winner of the Ziggy's Boy stakes, with a gentleman I can only presume, not knowing for sure, is his trainer Todd Beattie. He gave a good account of himself in the Woody Stephens after three consecutive wins, leading to the eighth pole of that seven furlong event. He cut back to what seems to be his preferred six here, and was three lengths safe of second choice Luxembourg in a nice rebound effort.

- Steve Crist in the Form picks up on the topic of the times and figs at Belmont on Tuesday in his subscription (and print) only column. He explains that if the variant for the first two races of the day were used for Out of Gwedda's win in the Tremont, his Beyer would have been only 59; it was adjusted to a still-low 72. Soaring By's race was judged by the same adjusted variant, and he got a 99, the fastest by a juvenile this year. But Crist asks: Could Soaring By really be that good and that much faster than the Tremont winner, or was the track perhaps speeding up again?

The latter actually seems unlikely, considering that the next two dirt races were the two slow state-bred races, followed by Strong Contender's slow Dwyer, for which he was given a 109. However, Crist questions the figure, which was based mostly on conjecture.

Strong Contender's race is the toughest to gauge, as the card's only dirt route at the end of a strange day. He had been widely pronounced a superstar without previously accomplishing much or running very fast. His supporters will view his 109 as legitimate proof of the flowering of a colt with great potential. Skeptics will say he capitalized on a duel between two sprinters who stopped cold in front of him, that his lofty figure is a guess on a difficult day, and that he will be a vulnerable favorite next time out.

The rigorous study of final time usually helps remove some of the mystery and ambiguity from comparative performances, but at Belmont last Tuesday it only deepened it. Out of Gwedda, Soaring By, and Strong Contender are all clearly talented horses, but exactly how talented remains to be seen - and could be the basis for some interesting wagers and opinions in the weeks ahead.

- Bill Turner will breeze Highland Cat early next week, and if all goes well, he'll likely point to a mile and a sixteenth maiden special on July 15.

Ladies Day

- The Prioress, a Grade 1 six furlong sprint for three-year old fillies, has drawn a competitive field of nine on what should finally be a beautiful weather weekend day at Belmont. On the undercard is the Missy Mirage stakes for older fillies and mares, and Yolanda B. Too makes her second start since a successful return from getting buried in the Distaff – similar to what Nothing But Fun did. In fact, a look back at the Distaff shows that six horses in total – Stellar Jayne, Capeside Lady, Happy Ticket and Healthy Addiction (who was beaten by 57 lengths on Breeders Cup day) were the other four (the last three also after layoffs) – came back to win their next race. Ironically, the top three Distaff finishers – Pleasant Home, Ashado, and Society Selection – all ran their last race that day.

So I guess it was a pretty key race. Hollywood Story was in the field too, and the only filly who showed poor form afterwards was In the Gold. So I like Yolanda B. Too here; and perhaps Pletcher’s returnee Bohemian Lady will get some attention in the mutuel pools. It’s always a risk betting against the trainer in these situations, but her two big stakes wins over the winter on the inner track were accomplished against three middling opponents each time.

As for the Prioress, it’s a wide-open affair that virtually any of the nine fillies could win. Diplomat Lady is the sole Grade 1 winner in the field, but that came over a distance of ground in the Hollywood Starlet, in which she defeated Balance. She also has some of the lowest Beyers in the field. Capote’s Crown may be the favorite, as she comes off two romps at a Belmont track which she obviously loves. As Dave Litfin points out in the Form, this half-sister to sprint champ Smoke Glacken shows improving Beyers in each of her four Belmont starts. And she’s trained by the red-hot Kiaran McLaughlin. Kent Desormeaux has been on board for those last two, and he said "I love her.....She's trained to the minute right now and Kiaran's got her seeing fire." [Thoroughbred Times]

Livermore Valley (Mt. Livermore) is an interesting entrant for James Ryerson. She has shown an almost-uninterrupted string of improving Beyers for her career, and she comes off two wins out-of-town, most recently in the Dearly Precious at Monmouth, in which she defeated three decent rivals, including Sensation and Gleaming Elegance. She’s never been worse than third in her eight lifetime starts. During the winter, however, she was unable to handle Silvestris (Forest Wildcat), who starts from the rail here for Darley and Tom Albertrani. She returned to the races with an easy four length allowance win and a lifetime best Beyer.

Misty Rosette (Stormin Fever) is another interesting shipper here; she won her first three races at Gulfstream, going straight from maiden to stakes, including a four length win in the G3 Old Hat on that sloppy Hutcheson-day card. Her last was a third in the seven furlong Forward Gal in March. She shows some bullet works, and should benefit from the turnback to six furlongs. She’s a half-sister to Storm Wolf, who took the G2 Laz Barrera Memorial at seven furlongs last year.

- NYRA's website includes some interesting blurbs on its stakes races, regarding both the horses that some are named after, and the history of the race itself. Here's what they have to say about the Prioress:

The PRIORESS was named for the first American Thoroughbred ever to win in England. Prioress was bought by Ten Braek from General Wells as a three year old in 1857 for $2,500. She was then sent to England where she won both the Great Yorkshire Stakes and the Cesare Witch Handicap in 1858. In the latter, Prioress finished in a triple dead heat with El Hakim and Queen Bess; she then won the run off.

The PRIORESS was run at Jamaica prior to l960. Run in two divisions in l95l and l958. In 1966, Priceless Gem finished first but was disqualified and placed last. Run at Aqueduct from 1960 to 1986. [NYRA]

- And speaking of the distaff set, Ouija Board returns tomorrow in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, where she will face David Junior, 4th to Ouija Board in last month's Prince of Wales. She'll have to overcome some recent precedent in order to win.

With only two mares successful in the last 20 years, only two winning favourites since Nashwan in 1989 and the last five winners of the Prince of Wales's Stakes all beaten in the race, history is against Ouija Board in tomorrow's Coral-Eclipse Stakes. [Guardian UK]

Despite all that, don't expect to see 8-1 on her this time! David Junior's trainer Brian Meehan hardly sounds intimidated.

"Ouija Board is an exceptional mare, she's wonderful, she's a legend.....and there was no disgrace in finishing fourth to her. But we will take her on again. We're not going to run and hide just because we got beat." [Independent Online]

Doing The "Right" Thing?

- Three weeks until Saratoga, and as even as my handicapping game lies in shambles and I continue to look to writing and blogging projects to generate some income, I’m warming to the idea of attempting to do so mainly at the betting windows. That's one of the things that makes the game so great. I can suffer a day of miserable losses, and yet drive home truly believing that I'm on the verge of mastering the game. I mean, I’m not that bad, am I? Why not me? With my discipline, at least, being a strong point, it would only take one big Pick 4 score to put me over the top. I feel inspired by some advice that an anonymous poster left in the comments section last week:

Your only source of income comes from handicapping.

Like the commercial says:

36 days at Saratoga rent and living expenses: chump change
36 days Saratoga with my last nickel on the line: PRICELESS

Oh man, you gotta love that! Because while hardly chump change in terms of 2006 dollars, in the long run, it ain’t gonna put me out on the street, and who knows, this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. (As in, I may never want to see another racetrack afterwards!) So though I am planning to do some writing for pay, and have a special Saratoga blog project in the works, let the games begin, I say!

The problem is, as I mentioned above, that I suck right now, and my confidence is shot. This is despite the fact, or, maybe because I’ve been trying to do the “right thing” lately. I’ve been studying the races intently prior to going to the track like I'm supposed to, dissecting the trainer angles and race charts via Formulator, and checking out breeding on Pedigree Query. I’ve also been printing out the pp’s at home and not buying the Form at the track, so as to force me to shun simulcasting and concentrate solely on the live races.

But it hasn’t helped. In fact, I’ve gone downhill. It’s a conundrum, this thing about doing the “right thing”. When I’ve already fully digested the races before going, I find myself either losing concentration or thinking way too much about races that I’ve studied ad nauseum. I also get a little restless, and I get frustrated if I know that the upcoming races are lacking. But if I just pick up the Form at the track and mostly wing it, then I’m missing out on information that can provide me with a crucial edge. (Or maybe it’s “too much information.”)

I reverted to the "winging it" method on Tuesday (and said 'hello' to simulcasting again). And though it didn't help the bottom line, I at least seemed to have a clue, was fully engaged, and had more fun. In fact, I almost hit a nice triple in the 6th race triple at Belmont. I had Classic Marilyn, the non-Mechanical Animal who is currently my favorite horse name, squarely on top at 8-1. But I got badly burned when 27-1 Baby Gray got his neck into third place. I was so positive about the race, that I didn’t even bother with exactas, and indeed, I ran 1-2-4-5. (I’m also cheap, which is probably my biggest fault at the track.)

Being at the Spa for the entire meeting, my inclination is that the “right thing” is the right thing. Careful handicapping before the race day starts, picking my spots for the Pick-Whatever that will make the meeting. Discipline, no simulcasting, strict budgeting seems like the sensible way to go.

On the other hand, historically I do best when I think on my feet, and take the races one at a time, including simulcast options if appropriate. It’s also more fun for me. But it won’t be fun if I blow the budget after the first three weeks, and it just seems reckless in this particular case, especially when I have all the modern tools of handicapping at my disposal. (You know, all those tools that didn’t exist 20 years ago, when the Racing Form’s speed ratings and track variants added together seemed to serve us all fine.)

So, I’m really up in the air now, and I have three weeks to try and figure out a strategy. One thing for sure, I don’t want to put too much pressure on myself, and I want to have fun. On the other hand, who wants to come back and have to say “I lost,” when asked how you did?

- No racing in New Jersey due to the government shutdown, and Saturday’s Grade 1 United Nations Handicap is very much up in the air, as is a huge weekend at the Meadowlands, where the elimination heats for several big stakes, including the Meadowlands Pace and the Stanley Dancer Memorial, a key prep for the Hambletonian, are supposed to be run. Reuters is reporting today that a compromise budget is in the works, so let’s hope for the best.

Fields Short Out West Too

- Short field syndrome, which plagued stakes races at Belmont Park this past weekend, hops cross-country where Saturday's Hollywood Gold Cup has drawn just four challengers to Lava Man; and the Swaps has attracted just four runners. Yuck.

Lava Man will have a chance to make some history on Saturday. He can become the first horse since the Cal-bred Native Diver won the race three consecutive times in 1965-67 to win it even twice in a row. He can become the first runner since Exceller to take both the Hollywood Turf Handicap (now known as the Whittingham) and the Gold Cup in the same year. John Henry, Vigors and Cougar II were all unsuccessful when campaigned to attempt that double. [Sign On San Diego] And, according to Bloodhorse.com, he can surpass Budroyale as the richest claiming horse, meaning, I suppose, the richest horse that at one time ran for a claiming price.

Seek Gold is in the race after his spectacular rally in the Stephen Foster. His trainer Ron Moquett said “It would take a team effort to beat him, I believe,” but with Lava Man looking like the only speed in the field, which also includes Magnum and Ace Blue, it looks like the team just isn’t there. You wonder why Moquett would pick this spot, especially on the speed-favoring California track. He says he left it up to jockey Calvin Borel. "[I told myself that if he breezed good, I'd let Calvin help me decide.....Calvin said 'California, here I come.' Houston Chronicle]

Besides, trainer Doug O'Neill says that Lava Man is doing fantastic.

"I think the grass races kind of helped freshen him up. His training has been as good as it has been going into the last few races, and we are expecting a really big effort. Knock on wood, I can't recall him ever being better. Hopefully, we are saying that after Saturday." [Bloodhorse]

The Swaps will feature a rematch between Point Determined and AP Warrior, so I guess most won’t mind that there are only two others in here, including Arson Squad, who ran third when the top two slugged it out nose-to-nose in the Affirmed. Baffert is seeking his 4th Swaps win. Baffert won previously with Captain Steve in 2000, Congaree in 2001, and During in 2003.

News and Notes - July 5

- The dotted line has not been signed, and Dwight Manley is not yet officially the new national manager of the Jockeys’ Guild. But A Guild attorney told Thoroughbred Times:

“Darrell [Haire] is still with the Guild as interim national manager, and until there's a contract finalized, we would not formally recognize Manley as national manager, but since Manley is committed to the organization, he and the Guild are working closely already. The title is just a technical distinction."

Oh, well that clears that up, eh?

As far as Jesse Jackson goes, it’s interesting to note that John Velazquez, contradicting many published reports over the last few days, told Bloodhorse that Jackson wouldn't be in a position to control the organization. "We didn't vote to hire Jesse Jackson.....(Jackson) is an advisor to Mr. Manley." This is just a guess, but it seems to me that the Reverend’s surprise appearance before the Guild was nothing more than a stunt on Manley’s part. Jackson was in town at the time regarding a Supreme Court challenge to a local school desegregation plan, and, as we discussed last week, he’s intervened on Manley’s behalf in the past.

But other than a chance to make some news in his quest to keep himself relevant, I just don’t see what’s really in it for the Rev here. Manley is the one reportedly putting up $500,000 of his own money to bail the Guild out financially, and thus, he is the one that will naturally reap the benefits of any money to be made. (Velazquez disputed the 15% of Guild earnings that Manley was originally reported to be in line for, saying it was 5%.) So I think that Rev. Jackson won’t be much of a factor unless the TV cameras are rolling. Instead he’ll go back to his “shakedowns” of poor, helpless victims like British Petroleum, which earned $19 billion in profits in 2005.

As for Manley, I guess he must see some financial potential here, unless he’s just really bored. Velazquez maintains that "We want to work together with the industry."

"We voted to hire Dwight Manley because he's a good businessman. He knows about handling organizations, he has a good background in sports; he's a positive asset to the Guild [Bloodhorse]."

He knows about dealing with management on behalf of his clients too. The problem is that in this case, he'll be dealing with management that do not consider themselves employers of the jocks, and tactics that he’s used in the past may not be as effective in doing anything but antagonizing racetrack owners that are sure to be skeptical to start with.

- The latest racino in New York State is Tioga Downs, a harness track located near Ithaca and Binghamton. They’ve been racing there since June, but now comes the part most people have been waiting for - slots, of course. They had to wait a few extra days though; the recent rains and flooding caused “fiber optic” issues that delayed the opening until Tuesday (and the grand opening until July 10). Not everyone learned of the delay, however, and crowds reported to be around 1,000 people showed up each day over the weekend at around 10 A.M., anticipating some exciting slots action.

“I seen old men sneaking ... to get to the front of the line,” said Jason Schoonover, 35, of Towanda, Pa. “I had people pushing me to get some T-shirts (being thrown as freebies to the waiting crowd). I just put my head down and hoped I didn't get hit. It was crazy.” [Ithaca Journal]

Do you think we'll see scenes like that when the new racetracks in Pennsylvania open? The Meadows is one of the existing tracks anxiously awaiting slots there, and they can’t come soon enough.

“Well, things have been going down bit by bit over the past ten years,” said Mike Jeannott of the Meadows. “We've lost 30 percent of our business and 40 percent of out attendance. So it's been pretty dire.” [KDKA.com]

The report says that some nights as few as 100 racing fans are in attendance at the Meadows. The problem for the sport is that once the casino opens, you’ll probably have those same 100 people actually watching the races, while the rest attend to the stimulating action inside. [Hat tip to Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page]

- Strong Contender’s final time of 1:45.24 for the Dwyer was the slowest of the 13 editions run at the mile and a sixteenth distance – and he came home in a slow 33 2/5 for the last two and a half furlongs. Yet, John Ward’s budding star received a Beyer of 109.

Mark Hopkins, who makes the Beyer numbers for Belmont, said the track got significantly slower as the day went on. Hopkins said he had to adjust his figures by 32 Beyer points for the last three dirt races.

"It was one of the most dramatic changes I've ever seen at Belmont," said Hopkins, who has made New York figures for 30 years. "And Belmont has dramatic changes." [Daily Racing Form]

The Dwyer was the only race run on the dirt beyond seven furlongs, but the prior race went seven in 1:28 2/5; before that, 5 ½ furlongs were run in 1:07. (Both were state-bred allowance races) So yes, the track seemed pretty slow.

But if the track was indeed slowing throughout the day, as Hopkins said, what does that say about the performance of Soaring By, Pletcher’s two-year old who cruised to a final clocking of 1:04.93 for the 5 ½ furlongs in the fifth race? It was two races prior that Out of Gwedda won his race in 1:06.66.

Pletcher Strikes Out After 4-Bagger

I know that Todd Pletcher had won with his first four runners on Tuesday's Belmont card, coming consecutively, in the second through fifth races.

But 9-5 on Keyed Entry in the Dwyer? Even with opponents that had questions surrounding them, such as Da Stoops and Strong Contender, and even with the gift of hindsight of his last place finish, I think I can question the wisdom of my fellow New York horseplayers on this one. Coming off his last place finish in the Derby, continuing questions about his distance ability, and the presence of other speed in the race, this one hardly seemed like a wager at odds like those.

Strong Contender merely observed the proceedings as Da Stoops and Dontfearthereaper moved to challenge the favorite, and John Ward said "This is probably a style that is more suitable for him. Just laying back and not being in contention early." [Brisnet]

Two of Pletcher's winners on the day were first-time starters. In the second, Spring At Last was the second choice to Frankel returnee Brilliant Cut, and was lagging behind as that one set the pace to the half mile mark. But Spring At Last swept four wide on the turn and, as related by the race chart, drew clear after one left handed slap [by John Velazquez], and won by five. This three-year colt is by Silver Deputy, and is a half-brother to the Grade 1 winner Sharp Lisa, third to Hollywood Story in the Vanity on Sunday.

In the 5th, a two-year old maiden affair, Pletcher sent out an even-money favored entry of two first-timers, and got the money with Soaring By (Deputy Minister), a similarly easy five length winner. Out of a mare by Northjet, Soaring By is a half to two Japanese stakes winners.

Soaring By's time was almost two full seconds faster than Pletcher's Tremont winner Out Of Gwedda. But that can probably be explained by the fact that the latter stumbled and almost went down coming out of the gate. Velazquez explained: "He got up, I gave him a little slap and he just started running. I just sat against him and he responded." There were only three overmatched rivals, one of whom also stumbled at the start, so it was more like a public workout. As described by Bloodhorse.com,
it was an effort with no effort. The G2 Saratoga Special on August 17 is likely his next race.

Pletcher's 4th winner was Advisor, a $350,000 Tale of the Cat colt who debuted unsuccessfully for a mere $25,000 tag at Monmouth before stepping up and winning for $35,000 here. Even the trainer's "failures" find the winner's circle, this one with Mike Luzzi battling back on the inside after surrendering the lead.

4th of July Notes

- Bluegrass Cat was back on the track with a leisurely half mile in 51.93. Pletcher told the Daily News that the Haskell is “most likely” for him, while Sunriver will head for the Jim Dandy.

Pletcher has Keyed Entry going in the Dwyer today. It appears as if he’s gotten the colt to relax in the mornings, as he’s turned in some moderate breezes, so it will be interesting to see how he races in a field loaded with speed. Look for Rafael Bejarano to try and rate 15-1 Regent Spirit behind the leaders, and be along in time for the big upset for Zito.

- There have been a lot of fatal breakdowns at the current Arlington meeting; 17 in total, after two this past weekend. The Chicago Tribune reports that the situation is causing some owners Monday to consider pulling their horses from the venerable track. The track was shut down last week for an inspection of the turn for home, where all of the injuries have happened.

Workers scraped away the top layer of dirt to examine the hard-packed pad of sand, clay and silt that lay beneath. An outside consultant looked for holes or other irregularities in the pad, but found none, said track supervisor Javier Barajas.

"The layer was perfect," he said. [Chicago Tribune]

Some state officials, according to the paper, have suggested that a shortage of horses has created pressure for trainers to run, but a spokesman for the horsemen asserted that it’s always the trainer’s decision. "It's not like Arlington Park calls the trainer and says, `You need to run this horse or we'll kick you out.' It doesn't happen."

Arlington will add pine bark shavings to the track on Wednesday to try and stem the rash of incidents.

"The pine bark shavings will help the track retain moisture as the weather heats up this summer and will also add a little extra bounce to the racing surface......Other tracks such as Louisiana Downs and the King Abdul Aziz racetrack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, have had success with this." [Thoroughbred Times]

- Empire Racing Associates’ CEO Jeff Perlee thinks that the large number of declared bidders for the New York franchise will help distinguish the group as a New York-based group with the interests of New York horsemen as a top priority from the far-flung group of competitors. Included is an Australian bookmaker, the Las Vegas-based Wynn Resorts group, Canada’s Magna, and one group, WNY Gaming Associates which, despite the fact that they’re based in New York, nobody knows a thing about.

Excelsior Racing Associates is headed up by Steve Swindal, a son-in-law of George Steinbrenner and a partner in the Yankees. The NY Daily News reports that the group is making an all-out push for the franchise.

"My family cares a great deal about racing and a great deal about New York....and we are committed to restoring New York racing to greatness."

- Been meaning to mention Chance Rollins, the jockey who was not breathing, and in full cardiac arrest when reached by medics after a spill at Bay Meadows on June 11. He had bleeding at the base of his brain, and a doctor said a day after the accident, “He could have just minimal memory loss, or he could be in a vegetative state.”

Rollins was discharged from the hospital on June 28, and his wife told the SF Chronicle "He still has some outpatient therapy to work on his short-term memory.....The doctors are expecting a 100 percent full recovery." The racetrack physician called it “an extraordinarily remarkable recovery.”

So on that bit of good news, I take my leave for what will be a somewhat shortened day at Belmont. I’ll miss the Dwyer to return home for a Head Chef BBQ feast. Here’s hoping for a safe and happy holiday day for eveyone.

Weekend Wraps

- There’s been a lot of action the last few days, so let’s check some of it out.

- On Saturday, Henny Hughes (Hennessy) made his long-awaited return to the races at Monmouth, where they’re still in action through Tuesday anyway despite the ongoing government shutdown. And what a return it was – a spectacular ten length victory in which he not only ran very fast – 1:08.26 with a final furlong in 12:04 - but he affirmed what he indicated in the Juvenile – that his speed can be harnassed. He broke last and stalked front-running He’s Got Grit until taking over around the quarter pole. Jockey Joe Bravo certainly noticed the difference from last year.

“This is what I wake up in the morning for…..He was spectacular today.

"(Trainer) Kiaran (McLaughlin) had this one ready to roll. Last year when I rode him, he was just a boy, but he’s filled out and is a man now.” [Carnival Blog]

How well is McLaughlin going now? He also took the Suburban on the same day with Invasor. “What a day. I’m going to play the lottery.” [Boston Herald] He won in similar fashion to Henny, sitting just behind the leaders Noble Causeway and Wilko (neither of whom likely felt comfortable on the lead in what was a paceless race), and blowing them away in the stretch at what seems to me like a very generous 6-5 for the Uruguayan Triple Crown champ.

McLaughlin said he would like to keep Invasor in races of 1 1/4 miles or farther, but said he would consider running him in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap, a 1 1/8-mile race at Saratoga on Aug. 5. [Daily Racing Form]

In the Mother Goose, morning line favorite Joint Effort came up dead as a doornail on the board at 5.80 – 1, and ran last as Bushfire (Louis Quatorze) followed up her Acorn win with her second Grade 1 in a row. That’s two-thirds of the old Filly Triple Crown, but trainer Eddie Kennealy indicated that it’s time to back off.

Kenneally said Bushfire would be pointed toward the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs, with possible preps in the Alabama (G1) and Gazelle (G1) Stakes.

"The Triple Tiara is very prestigious … I just wish the races were spread further apart," he said. [Thoroughbred Times]

Favored Lemons Forever, the Oaks winner, could only manage to rally for 4th in this one-turn race, despite a slow final three furlongs of 38.75 seconds. Pine Island got bet to 5-1 and ran a solid second in only her third start, and first on a fast main track. She’s obviously one to watch from Shug McGaughey.

Turning to Sunday's stakes at Belmont, the one thing I was right about in the Astoria was that every filly in this race has a shot. Desire to Excel (Mt. Livermore) was the rank outsider in the field, but she easily handled 4-5 Octave in the stretch for a five length win for trainer Kelly Breen. She’s by Mt. Livermore, and she’s a half-sister to Sky Diving, second in this year’s WinStar Derby. Her dam, Ayrial Delight, is a stakes-winner on the grass, and is by Quick Dip, a sire from the Vigors/Grey Dawn/Herbager line, so perhaps there’s a little green in Desire to Excel's future.

And Rebel Rebel (Revoque) is the horse I really wanted to pick in the Poker, though he did benefit from some racing luck to get the win over Remarkable News, who was, surprisingly, only a slight favorite. Remarkable News was pretty much boxed in until the stretch (make a note of that….the chart doesn’t note any trouble). The winner's jockey was apparently studying the Form the night before. "Prado called me last night and said he wanted to take this horse off the pace," [Richard] Dutrow said. "I told him to go ahead and do it. I thought it was a great idea." [NY Post]

Funny Cide won in Canada, a couple more Grade 1’s in Hollywood, and I’ll try to get to all the good stuff soon. Some of us have to work consult today, while the rest of you are out at the races.

TVG Not Ready for Prime Time

- TVG is one of the sweet sixteen of bidders for the NYRA franchise, a fact that was on my mind as I was watching their coverage of the Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks, which was carried here on Fox Sports New York. The host of the telecast, Todd Schrrmmppff, was as earnest as ever. With that over-melodramatic tone, he told us of the “exciting scene” and how “the tension starts to build.” He tried to compare the event to the ongoing World Cup tournament, and declared that jockey Victor Espinoza, on favored Japanese import Asahi Rising, was “carrying the hopes of a nation.” That filly was the center of attention of the TVG crew, which included Gary Stevens and Simon Brey, and the bettors, who made her the 8-5 choice, despite the fact that she had never won a graded event.

The network was not on any lists of possible bidders in New York that I’d seen, but I suppose it shouldn’t be a total surprise. It is a wagering hub, after all, as well as an archrival to HRTV, which is owned by Magna, also amongst the bidders. TVG could hardly expect to lose the NYRA tracks to HRTV and expect to survive. TVG is owned by TV Guide/Gemstar, a public company, and thus is likely in a financial position to either make a bid themselves, or partner with someone else. Matt Hegarty reported in the Form that TVG alerted NYRA on Friday that the company had submitted its name but that NYRA has had no other discussions with the company.

"Their attorney told our attorney that they were going to be on the list, but only as a place-card, so to speak," [NYRA chief Charlie] Hayward said.

It doesn’t seem at all likely, but the thought of Saratoga turning into a giant TVG studio is a little scary to say the least. We could certainly kiss goodbye to Jan Rushton and Tom Durkin, and say hello to Jessica York and Vic Stauffer. We could likely expect some of the familiar restaurants and bars to be receive new names, such as the All Access Pub, or the Channel 602 Lounge.

And if their telecast of the Oaks is any indication, the whole production would be rather clunky. There had been so much buildup for the race on the network - how many times have you heard the name 'Cesario' mentioned there of late - that you would think they would have planned something beyond the usual talking heads with the occasional interview from the paddock.

In an unintentionally hilarious moment, Christine Olivares, curiously the only reporter assigned to interview duty at their home track, questioned Koga Masaaki, the Japanese trainer of Asahi Rising, pointing the microphone to the interpreter, and then back to the trainer as he answered the questions himself in a soft mumble, not a word of which I could comprehend, as the interpreter stood awkwardly by. The only other pre-race interview was with James Cassidy, trainer of two longshots; neither of the two 5-2 shots received any particular attention. During the post parade, instead of doing a rundown of the contestants, they played videos of the jockeys introducing themselves. Not a bad idea. But most of the riders seemed very ill at ease, and there were uncomfortably long interludes between the segments which were filled with cheesy techno music, a selection, no doubt, off the greatest hits album of the music they play during the races on Monday and Tuesday nights.

On the plus side, Ms. Olivares did a good job reporting on an extremely rough commute from Canada to Hollywood for Arravale, which included her being backed off a van on a highway after it had broken down. (Too bad for those who had bet her that the information came with just three minutes until post time.) Gary Stevens, noting that jockey Espinoza seemed relaxed (pretty impressive considering that he was ‘carrying the hopes of a nation’) advised us to watch the body language of jockeys and trainers to see if they’re nervous too - and you thought it was enough to evaluate the horses! I guess seeing a liquid dripping down the legs is bad whether in horses or people. And Simon Brey noted that Asahi Rising seemed a little wet and worked up as post time neared; he pointed out that Espinoza had taken his feet out of the stirrups to try and calm her down a bit, and speculated that entering the turf course got her riled up.

All in all though, it seems to me that the network is still feeling its way towards establishing a truly top-scale telecast, and since that is their main purpose in life at this point, one wonders how they would run three racetracks.

Stevens and Brey fell into their own hype and both picked Asahi Rising. She ran a nice race, but no one was catching Wait a While , another Grade 1 winner for Todd Pletcher, who, according to the LA Daily News, was winning his first race in California since Dubleo won the Nov. 27, 2004, Generous Stakes. Pletcher apparently hadn't run a horse here since Limehouse's disappointing fifth in the 2005 Hollywood Gold Cup.

Wait a While, who took the G2 Davona Dale in the slop at Gulfstream in February, is by Maria's Mon. Interestingly, the sire had two graded winners on that winter day, as High Limit took the Strub in sunnier California; but this was the first graded stakes win for one of his progeny since then. Wait A While, who is now two-for-two on the grass, is out of Flirtatious, a winning AP Indy mare; her second dam is Grand Charmer, a graded stakes winner (the G3 Pucker Up) on the turf. Her racing manager Cody Richardson said that she'll likely stay on the grass. "She's obviously a very competitive filly on the dirt as well, but after a performance like this against this caliber of fillies, you'd have to think she'd be here for a while." [Thoroughbred Times]

- Perhaps the most audacious bidders for the New York franchise are the five state OTB's. I imagine that not a single positive word was spoken to the committee about them during any of the public or private hearings that they held. In fact, a prevalent theme has been the necessity of consolidating them all under the new franchise holder; so the idea of them signaling their intentions to turn the tables on that concept is perhaps their idea of a joke. It's expected that the five will consolidate their bid as one when we get to August 15.

Another curious bidder is Monticello Raceway, the tiny harness track/casino in upstate New York. That shows you the power of slots. Not long ago, Monticello couldn't have bid for an old Echo and the Bunnymen 12" EP on Ebay.

One bidder conspicuous by its absence was Delaware North, the operator of the Finger Lakes racetrack and casino. But the 16 are still permitted to bring in yet-to-be identified partners, so it's quite possible they'll still show up, perhaps with Empire Racing Associates, who has to be considered the favorite at this point.

Sunday Belmont Stakes

- The Astoria is the first stakes race for two-year olds in New York this year. This race peaked in significance in 1974-75 when Ruffian and Dearly Precious took it in consecutive years, though since then, it’s been won by the likes of Grade 1 winners Twilight Ridge and Jersey Girl, as well as Adieu last year; she went on to take the Frizette.

Whether there are any Grade 1 winners in this year’s edition is really hard to say. This is basically an entry level allowance race with a $100,000 purse and black type. All of the seven entrants are coming out of maiden races, and six of them actually have graduated.

Every filly in this race has a shot, including the lone maiden, Cool the Economy (Mazel Trick). She broke poorly but recovered to pester the 1-2 Pletcher favorite Audacious Chloe throughout, settling for a hard fought second. I recall watching that race on TVG, and Vic Stauffer was quite animated in insisting that Cool the Economy was the better horse than the winner, who had impressed in her debut at Keeneland.

Her trainer, Richard Violette, is having a fine meeting at Belmont, with ten wins out of 44 starters. And he does very well with second-time out two-year olds, scoring at 27% over the last three years.

Shelby’s Memory (Forest Camp) won her debut for trainer Steve Klesaris, another guy who does well with juveniles in their second race (23%). She beat, by 2 ¾ lengths, Glacken’s Mark, who returned to win at 3-5 for Pletcher, earning a 72 Beyer.

Octave is the logical favorite for Pletcher. She won her debut at 6-5 stylishly with a four wide rally over After Curfew, who returned to run second at 4-5 at Churchill last week after a bad start. This filly was a $350,000 yearling purchase last fall; she’s by Unbridled’s Song, out of Belle Nuit, a stakes-winning Dr. Carter mare who is a half-sister to the Grade 1 winner and successful broodmare Ms. Eloise.

She’s Roughin It (Forest Camp) earned a big number trouncing an 80K maiden claimer in her last, despite a comment line which reads ‘gathered up late.’ The comment in the chart reads ‘gathered up very late,’ and in any event, it was a pretty weak field.

- The Grade 3 Poker Stakes is a grassy mile handicap for three and up, and it drew a field of seven.

Morning line favorite Remarkable News (Chayim) has five wins and two close losses for the rejuvenated Angel Penna Jr. in seven races, and rates the logical choice. He can win on the lead and rating behind it, and doesn’t really have anything to criticize, other than a short price.

Rebel Rebel (Revoque) returns to his favorite mile distance after an even 5th against Better Talk Now in that great Dixie Stakes on Preakness day. Prior to that, he rallied for second after a bad start in the one mile Lure at Gulfstream. In fact, his only win in this country is at this distance, a fast allowance win here at Belmont last year. And he ran second in the 2000 Guineas at a mile, earning a Timeform rating of 117.

T.D. Vance (Rahy) also shows his best effort at a mile, a win in a stakes at Keeneland last fall. After two subsequent disappointing efforts, he came back with a win in the Eight Thirty stakes at Delaware. But with Remarkable News and sprinter Around the Cape in here, he likely won’t again be able to lope on the lead in 50 1/5 seconds.

Vicarage may get some money. It's his first try on the turf, and as we've been discussing here, Vicar has not gotten many successful grass runners. In fact, Vicatage's 200 Tomlinson isn't much better than that of Christening.

- When I spoke to Kiaran McLaughlin on Friday, I asked him about Tuffertiger, who was a main track only scratch in the race that Museeb won that day. He told me that he would run in the first on Saturday, and that his last race, in which he ran second, was “huge. ” However, he was worried that the horse would react to that effort, pointing out that everyone else who came out of the race had bounced. When I got home, I looked at Forumlator and saw that the 1st, 3rd, and 4th place finishers had all returned and had run no better than a distant 4th, one of them at 5-2 against claimers.

Rounding the far turn on Saturday, it looked as if the trainer’s fears had been well-founded, as Tom Durkin noted that the even money favorite was far back, 11 lengths, to be precise, with 2 ½ furlongs left. But Garrett Gomez got him going as they swung into the stretch, and he closed resolutely to get the win. So I’m glad I didn’t get to post that conversation and possibly dissuade anyone who liked him. He’s a nice colt, a son of Tiger Ridge, the winless half brother to AP Indy standing in Florida for $7500. Tuffertiger now has two wins and three close seconds (a nose, neck, and ¾ lengths) in five starts.

Stable Update

[EDIT - The race discussed in this post was actually run on the dirt. I'm such an idiot...]

- As noted by a commenter, Christening checked in 4th at Delaware today, picking up another $1260 check. I’m not going to complain. A commenter noted that I’ve been a “whiner” about my horses lately, and I suppose that’s a fair criticism. I guess the cash call got me a little cranky. The fact that most of the other Castle Village partnerships have at least paid a visit to the winner’s circle doesn’t help.

So I was excited when I saw that she finished 4th and, particularly, that she had been in front. I wasn’t really expecting much of her on the grass. Reader Bank Check informed us that only two horses by Vicar have won on the turf. And Christening has a Tomlinson of only 196; I think a rating under 200 means that the horse is likely to develop hives from the surface. So all in all, it was a pleasant surprise.

But then I read the chart comment, which reads:

Christening set a slow pace for five furlongs and then weakened.

Could there possibly be a more negative comment about a horse that was in front until almost the quarter pole, and hung on for a little purse money? I mean, she didn’t even get any credit at all; the comment cast the whole thing in a negative light. They couldn’t have said something like: showed early speed, or set the pace?

I guess I’m whining again. OK, well, Highland Cat is expected to recover quickly from his little foot bruise. There’s a mile and a sixteenth maiden special on the turf written for July 15 which we’re hoping he can make.

Real Reporting

- I spent the day on Friday, or at least the latter part of it, at the twilight card at Belmont, but didn’t do much betting at all. In fact, I was kinda working instead. I suppose I should come clean and tell those of you who don’t know that I was canned from my day job, and I can’t believe it’s been about six weeks now living with this dirty little secret. They say that things sometimes happen for a reason, and is renting a place in Saratoga for the racing season reason enough? It’s something I’ve always wanted to do, and with some severance pay in hand, some extra cash from the Barron’s article and some recent consulting (a nice way, in this case, of saying ‘temping’), and the Head Chef’s clients flocking to the East End of Long Island for the summer, why not now? Seems a good time to finally live a dream, don’t it? I’m certainly not finding myself getting much younger of late.

However, 36 days of Saratoga, with nothing else to do but toil at the betting windows and write of the carnage on this blog, is probably not a great idea either, so I’ve been in the market for a paying gig. So on Friday at Belmont, I was fulfilling a request to do a sample race day report, complete with getting off my butt, away from the computer screen, and actually – gasp – getting some quotes. Eek! Like a real reporter! So instead of doping out the triples, I was taking a look at the more interesting races, and figuring out in my mind who to ask what depending on who happened to win. And this all presents its own little challenges far different from the usual handicapping.

Including actually doing the interviewing deed. I’ve quickly learned that this is largely a matter of lurking around and stalking people, neither of which really comes naturally to me; and I’ll freely admit that I was pretty nervous. I’ve found that winning trainers are apt to be talking on their cellphones after the race, sometimes as they disappear down the tunnel into the barn area. And at Belmont, it’s a short sprint for the jockeys from the weigh-in to the jockeys’ room, and most of them spend it informing the trainers why they lost. And after all of that, there’s the little matter of putting it all together in coherent form to meet a deadline just a few hours afterwards.

It wasn’t easy, but it was fun, and it kept me away from the betting windows (though also from here, sorry), which I guess is good and bad. If I end up doing this up there, it will actually assist with the harsh betting discipline that I’ll need to get through the meeting without blowing my wagering budget too early, and likely steer me more towards the multi-race wagers.

So anyway, I got through it all. I spoke to Kiaran McLaughlin, who is as nice of a guy as we read he is, about his horse Museeb, a beautifully-bred four-year old who took the third on the grass at six furlongs, cutting back from a mile and an eighth. He mentioned that the horse is a half-brother to Elnadin, who was a champion sprinter in Europe, thus he was happy to find this grassy sprint opportunity available. (He also told me that Like Now will pass on the Dwyer, possibly for the Leonard Richards at Delaware on July 16, which goes at a mile and a sixteenth and for $300,000. “The Dwyer has a lot of speed in there, a lot of early hitting that we don’t want to get involved with.”) Cornelio Velasquez told me, of Chief Officer, a two-year old NY-bred half brother to Ready to Please, who may be favored in today’s Mother Goose, that “the trainer told me she could run a little bit” after she did so, destroying her field by ten lengths as the surprising third betting choice in her debut race.

And Richard Migliore, despite literally running to catch a plane, was nice enough to take a minute to talk to me about the extremely impressive three-year old filly Any Limit, who held off Frankel’s favored California invader True Flare to take her third in a row. She’s one of those horses that showed an improved Beyer for each one of her starts, so I also had her singled in an ultimately unsuccessful Pick 3. This filly has really turned things around since coming up from Gulfstream for Allan Jerkins, and dare I speculate that she’s another possibility for the Darley Test? (I guess a really good reporter would have thought to ask the trainer about that!) She’s by Limit Out, a graded stakes winner at three who was also trained by Jerkins, out of a Forty Niner mare; her second dam is the Grade 1 (John A. Morris) winner Personal Business.

Any Limit breezed to victory her last two starts, but showed class and heart here, as she was pressed virtually all the way by True Flare, and had to hold her off in a desperate late drive, finishing the 6 ½ furlongs in 1:16. The Mig told me “even though the other filly was pressing – and she’s a fast filly – I had a pretty good hold and I was confident. Every time I needed more, she responded.”

- A bit more on Museeb (Danzig), and his royal breeding. Besides being a sibling to the aforementioned Elnadim, his dam, Elle Seule, is a stakes winner herself, and a daughter of the Grade 1 winner Fall Aspen. That makes Elle Seule a half-sister to four Grade 1 stakes winners – two of them in the U.S., Northern Aspen and Preakness winner Timber Country, and the other two, Hamas and Fort Wood, overseas. She’s also a half to the Santa Catalina winner Prince of Thieves, and to Colorado Dancer, a Grade 2 winner in France, and the dam of Dubai Millenium. So this colt certainly has the breeding to go long or short, though McLaughlin said he would stick to the latter.

- Quickly, in the Suburban, I can’t really get past Invasor with his 108 Beyer in defeating Wanderin Boy in the Pimlico Special. It’s a test for class for Frankel’s undefeated-in-the-U.S. Rathor, who would have to exceed his 7-2 morning line in order to be a worthwhile investment. And Wilko, Noble Causeway, and Andromeda’s Hero? Not today. A step-up by Wild Desert, or a reversion to last year’s form by Tap Day seem more likely.

In the Mother Goose, Joint Effort seems vulnerable with the extra furlong, and perhaps Ready to Please will catch her this time, as she wasn’t able to do in the one mile Dogwood. Lemons Forever comes off her bombshell close in the Kentucky Oaks, but her best races have all been around two turns. Shug McGaughey’s Pine Island (Arch) is making only her third start, wins on the turf and in the slop. We don’t know how good she is, but we’ve seen stranger things in the three-year old filly division, so perhaps she’s worth a flyer at 12-1. Her dam, by Seeking the Gold, is a full sister to Pleasant Home, Shug’s upset winner of the Distaff on this track last fall.