Louisiana Derby Day

- The weather forecast is perfect for New Orleans this weekend, and there's a great card in store for Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds; so here are some thoughts and observations on the stakes.

The G2 New Orleans Handicap looks like a two horse race between Liquor Cabinet, starting for Richard Dutrow and Pletcher's Master Command (AP Indy), who won the Mineshaft easily over the FG course last month. The last time Richard Dutrow was at Fair Grounds was in 2004, and he was there to run Saint Liam in this same stakes. Looking at Saint Liam's past performances (pdf), you can see that his form at that point was remarkably similar to that of Liquor Cabinet now. They had both been pretty successful allowance horses for previous trainers, but improved drastically upon moving to the Dutrow barn (surprise). Like Liquor Cabinet, Saint Liam, a four-year old at the time, came into this stakes off of a lifetime high Beyer, and for both, the New Orleans Handicap was, or will be their third start for Dutrow.

Saint Liam went off at 5.60 to 1, and lost by a head to Peace Rules, a race that, though it is listed under Saint Liam on the Cal Racing site, it's not available because Churchill Downs DOESN'T MAKE THEIR ARCHIVES AVAILABLE, ARGHH!!!

Liquor Cabinet (Hennessy) actually comes into the race off a 113 Beyer, five points higher than that of the ill-fated champ. And Dutrow said that he did that with a foot problem.

"In his first start for me, he blew a frog....We put pads on him to keep the frog covered. He trains and races with them. The frog's still not 100 percent, but he wore the pad last time he raced and he was fine." [DRF]

Good and Lucky (Wild Rush) is a tough one to figure. He's improved big time since stretching out four races ago, culminating with a 106 Beyer in his last; but all the races have been on either Polytrack or slop.

- In the G2 Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial, Einstein (Spend a Buck) has a crummy post once again. You may remember his monstrous effort when way wide for three turns in the mile and three eighths Gulfstream Park Handicap; sure you remember it - it was only two weeks ago Saturday. I'm all for horses running right back, but that had to be an exhausting effort given all the ground he covered, and this seems like a lot to ask. Add the number 11 post in a race that starts on the far turn, and, as much as I loved his last race, I think I'll look elsewhere.

Frankel ship in the seven-year old King's Drama, and the trainer has nine winners from 32 runners at this meeting. He won the G2 San Gabriel at this nine furlong distance in his last on New Year's Eve. You can expect him to run well, but the nine post and likely favoritism are unappealing in a competitive field.

Sweet Return looks like the only speed horse in the race. He sprinted home against weaker in his 2007 debut after setting a snail's pace. I really don't care for his form of late. But since I don't see anyone pressing him early, he's gotta be included for a minor share in my opinion.

So here's a couple to consider at better value. Hendrix (Sultry Song) ran third behind King's Drama in the San Gabriel; but when he's good, he runs numbers that are tops in this field. And this horse looks good now, at least based on his lights out workouts, as he's just loving life over the Cushion Track. Naissance Royale (Giant's Causeway) is a mare facing the boys for the first time for the red hot Christophe Clement. She is tough man, right there every time with Beyers that make her competitive with a nice trip from a good post.

- In the Fair Grounds Oaks, John Velazquez sticks on Appealing Zophie despite the return of Pletcher's Octave, the latter making her first start since her second to Dreaming of Anna in the BC Juv Fillies. Octave followed the winner that day on the rail before unsuccessfully trying to pass the winner in the stretch. So if you buy Pletcher's contention that the rail was indeed a live one that day, hmmm, you might want to downgrade her chances (though she was in the two-path coming home). Then again, it is Pletcher off a layoff.

I've really liked Appealing Zophie since I saw her scoot home with much enthusiasm in the stretch of the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga. She ran pretty huge in the BC, and was on the outside from the 12 post that day. This daughter of Successful Appeal will try and repeat her wire-to-wire score over Total in the Silverbulletday, but I'm a bit concerned about her being pressed early by Whatdreamsrmadeof (Graeme Hall), stretching out for trainer Tom Amoss, who won't be enlightening us on The Works this year. But he is by far the leading trainer at the meeting with 49 winners. This filly ran very fast early fractions at six furlongs in her last, her first with blinkers on. Breaking inside of Zophie, she could give her a run for her money here, and she's run well at routes before.

That could set things up for Total (Forest Wildcat), if she runs straight in the stretch this time; she was all over the place last time. Trainer Albert Stall told Jerry Klein of FOXSports.com:

"She's been acting more focused since her last start....People asked if I've worked on that but there's nothing to work on because she doesn't do it in the morning...That was her first race around two turns and I'm hoping she just got a little lost. Hopefully, the rider won't have to hit her so hard left-handed."

- In the Louisiana Derby, I think that Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) is going to be way overbet on the assumption that the incident in his last race cost him victory. Taking a stand against Pletcher is always risky, but I think it's the right way to go in this case, assuming that I'm right about his odds.

I don't know that Liquidity (Tiznow) will be much better value, but I'm way impressed with the California contenders this year, and his excellent efforts in the Hollywood Futurity and Sham point him out. Doug O'Neill said: "He's been a little bit of a challenge to figure out. … I think he is more talented than he's shown. He might be the most talented in my group." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Ketchikan is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, who would normally have his Derby hopefuls with Ron McAnally out west. But he was sick with a high temperature at Saratoga after being purchased for $500,000 at Keeneland in April, so he was kept out east with Stall. "Maybe (his sickness) was a blessing in disguise....We didn't wring him out trying to run him in the summer and fall races." [Times Picayune] He won his last two impressively, but will be seriously tested for class here. He's by Mr. Greeley, out of a half sister, by Blushing John, to the 1997 Kentucky Oaks winner Blushing K.D.

Birdbirdistheword (Pure Prize) has a blog, and a trainer in Ken McPeek who seems awfully confident, almost to the point of being cavalier. He's raced just once since October, when he put in a quite decent 4th to Great Hunter/Circular Quay/Street Sense in the Breeders Futurity; and McPeek is planning just two preps prior to the Derby.

“There’s no pressure on me to figure out where he fits or force anything,” said McPeek, who picked out 1995 Kentucky Derby runner-up Tejano Run. “We haven’t even cranked him up yet. I can simply develop him....If this horse was a car, he’d be a Maserati.” [AP]

He's shown a nice closing kick in two turf tries, and in his last, the Delta Downs Jackpot on the dirt in December. But he got an extremely fast pace to close into that day - they went 45 to the half. They had some good stakes on that card, and some nice older horses went significantly slower than that. So while I wish John the best of luck (and I hope he survived his flight without drinking too much), and would be thrilled to see a horse with his very own TBA blog win, I'll take a cautious approach for now.

Oh my, we also have Soaring By here, stretching out for Pletcher in his third career start. What the hell do we do with this one? "It's time to get on the bus and get some graded earnings," Pletcher said of the son of Deputy Minister. [Times Picayune] There's not much in his pedigree that insists he'll love to stretch out - he's a half to a couple who have won at 1200 meters (about six furlongs) in Japan. So I think I'll close my eyes, toss him, and hope for the best.

I'd been leaning towards Zanjero (Cherokee Run), who I wrote about in this post here. But while reading it myself, I recalled that Asmussen said that he's not suited for the tight turns at Fair Grounds. Why he would run him here again if that's the case, I can't say. He does pick up Garrett Gomez, who may be able to better time his closing move. But I've also noticed that his workouts are considerably slower coming into this race than before the Risen Star, so I'm hedging on him at this moment.

Bill Kaplan sends out Imawildandcrazyguy, who ran a nice second to Notional in the Risen Star; but the trainer's bubble seemed to burst last week with Drums of Thunder and Storm In May.

I gotta go with Liquidity here, on my West Coast / working out on Cushion Track theory; and use Circular Quay, Zanjero, and Birdbirdistheword underneath. I'll try and put together a Pick Four ticket a little later on.

- We mentioned how well Tom Amoss is doing at this meeting, and in the third race, he starts Da Cardinal; it's his second race off the claim, and he goes from dirt to turf. Second off the claim is an incredible category for the trainer at this meeting. He's nine for 18, with 16 in the money overall! And he's had four winners out of 13 runners going dirt to turf there, all with similar patterns to Da Cardinal (sparse turf form, good prior dirt race). I Believe In Me is unbeaten in two tries on the grass for Paul McKee. He's by Giant's Causeway, out of the Hollywood Starlet winner I Believe In You; and this is the female family of Is Your Pleasure, who I well recall winning the Jerome at Belmont in 1984 for Edward I. Kelly with jockey Don MacBeth. I must have had him that day.

Notes - March 9

- Invasor worked five furlongs in 1:00.60 at Palm Meadows this morning.

- Gregory A. Hall, who does a great job reporting for the Louisville Courier-Journal, read further into the Magna-Churchill agreement and saw that the companies have agreed to explore the rebate market; and that Magna has agreed to not oppose any slots initiatives in Miami-Dade county. That's where Calder is located, not a half hour's drive from Gulfstream, so normally you would expect Magna to naturally oppose the competition. The companies also agreed to pursue legislation in Florida that would alter simulcasting rules and allow thoroughbred tracks to conduct live racing after 7 p.m.

Night racing at Gulfstream? That would have been an absurd idea when the old real Gulfstream existed with its lush backyard area. But now the place sounds just perfect for racing under the lights.

- Happy Birthday John Henry, 32 years old, and as mean and nasty as ever, according to the AP. And thanks to reader cookie jill for sending along this You Tube video of his thrilling stretch duel with Perrault and Laffit Pincay in the 1982 Santa Anita Handicap, which resulted in John Henry's win by disqualification. Enjoy.

Not Very Lucky

- A commenter mentioned Donald Groth, the president of Catskills OTB, which has thrown its hat into the New York franchise ring, and this quote attributed to him from 2002: "We've found nothing to indicate that this was anything but a legitimate wager by a guy who got very lucky." [Baltimore Sun]

This was actually the infamous Ultra Six scandal of 2002, in which three men, betting by phone through Catskills OTB, conspired to rig the Breeders Cup pick six payoff and almost got away with a $3 million windfall. Computer programmer Chris Harn was able to configure the tickets after the fact so that they singled the first four winners in the sequence. The three pleaded guilty and received prison sentences ranging from one to three years. The scandal shook up the industry, inspiring new security measures to insure the integrity of wagering systems. The NTRA hired Rudy Giuliani's security consulting firm, from which Giuliani profited greatly from exploiting the tragedy of 9/11, which you can be sure he will doing in his presidential run as well.

Anyway, back to Groth, he was pretty wrong about the guy who got very lucky. I imagine he's hoping that the new panel to select the new franchise holder isn't scoring the bidders on the issue of their record on 'wagering integrity.'

News and Notes - March 8

- Sounds like trainer Richard Violette doesn't plan on having Summer Doldrums too cranked up for the Gotham on Saturday. "I don't really want to see a 106 Beyer....You can literally run too fast, too early in the year and have nothing left for the major races.....We'd like to see him have a B-plus performance (in the Gotham) that hopefully is good enough to win." [Houston Chronicle]

One of his opponents will be a colt that's eligible for an entry-level allowance race. Longley, who graduated in his debut at Saratoga last summer, was third in his return at Gulfstream on Feb 3. Graham Motion told the Form that the horse was sharper in that race than he'd planned: "He came away from there running and caught the worst of it being between those two horses. You know me, I don't crank them up to be at their best first time back."

And it wouldn't be a Derby prep if Pletcher wasn't there - Cowtown Cat will make his stakes debut.

- At Oaklawn, Wayne Lukas' Flying First Class, who holds the highest sophomore Beyer this year with a 107, worked six furlongs in 1:12.17, and check out these fractions:

12. 49 for his first eighth of a mile,: 24. 60 for a quarter,: 36. 67 for three-eighths,: 48. 54 for a half-mile and: 59. 92 for five-eighths of a mile. [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

Man, he just went faster and faster as he went along! Those are fractional splits of 12.49, 12.11, 12.07, 11.87, and 11.38 (!) before he slowed down a bit to 12.25. “He worked great today....He galloped out strong and looked good. Right on the money.” He's prepping for the Rebel next weekend. With his obscure breeding, distance is certainly a question mark....but his speed apparently is not.

- And overlooked in all the excitement on Saturday (as can occur when there's too much happening on one day) was the win by the still-undefeated Half Ours in the G2 Richter Scale at seven furlongs. After a bad start, and dueling through nutty fractions of 21.76 and 43.72, he still had enough left to turn back Park Avenue Ball despite understandably tiring at the end. Looks like his purchase for $6.1 million could pay off after all. Half Ours will now be pointed for the Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct, where his chief competition could come from stablemate Keyed Entry. [DRF] Cool!

Franchise Process Degenerates to Bad Farce

- To me, the entry of two new bidders for the New York franchise and the ongoing enhancing of the original proposals add a large element of farce to the proceedings. Forget the deadlines, and the months of work by the Ad Hoc Committee (and the taxpayer money spent on it). For one thing, it's like two horses jumping into a race at the eighth pole, after the others have already done all the work, setting the pace, making their wide moves, and helping to set the race up for the fresh entries. Not that I necessarily think that either the Catskills OTB or the Steve Wynn-led Thoroughbred Racing-NY has much of a chance to win the franchise. But they know exactly what they're up against, and can use all the work done by the others to craft their own proposals with the previous bids as benchmarks.

Then there's the written statement issued on behalf of Governor Spitzer: “The fact that additional companies have come forward demonstrates the great appeal and potential of Thoroughbred racing in New York.’’ Ha!! This is as cynical of a statement one could ever hear, even from a politician! The OTB is looking to protect its own turf, and we're supposed to believe that Steve Wynn cares about racing? As a matter of fact, are we supposed to believe that Spitzer is focused on racing rather than on slots revenue? Or for that matter, that any of the bidders with the exception of NYRA are?

In the case of the OTB, its president Donald Groth said his pitch will call for the state to create a new public benefit corporation to run the tracks.

"That's the only way for the people of the state of New York to share in the profits and to protect county governments that get revenues they have come to count on from off-track betting." [Albany Times Union]

The idea of creating a new quasi-state agency (the Metropolitan Transit Authority and the Port Authority are other examples of public benefit corporations) sounds very much like an idea that Steve Crist, prescient as usual, floated in his recent Form column:

Almost every time that government panels have taken on the challenge of designing a new blueprint for New York racing, they have ended up rejecting any private operation in favor of - surprise! - a vast new government agency. This seems especially possible in the New York situation as a new bureaucracy might fold in the state's six OTB corporations.

Of course, the old bidders are no longer bound to their bids, and are now free to enhance any aspects of their proposals that were previously deemed inferior. Empire spokesperson David Vermillion told the Saratogian:

"There's going to be a lot of changes, a lot of new information across the spectrum of areas....The money's going to be there."

Like Excelsior, Empire has pledged to pay off $50 million of NYRA's pension fund debt, which wasn't in its original proposal. The concern some observers have expressed is that re-starting the selection process could turn things into a bidding war.

I think it's obvious that the bidding war has already begun. And despite the promises of an open process in which the bidders, old and new, will present their proposals at public hearings and to the state legislature, it seems rather clear that sometime in June, shortly before the legislature adjourns, Eliot Spitzer, Sheldon Silver, and Joe Bruno (or whoever is the Senate Majority Leader at that time) will lock themselves in a room, determine which proposal translates into the most revenue to the state, and determine the future of racing in the state on that basis.

Difference of Opinion

- We seem to have a difference of opinion between the Daily Racing Form's national handicapper and the morning oddsmaker for Pool 2 of the Derby futures. Nobiz Like Shobiz is quoted at 15-1 by Churchill's Mike Battaglia, while Watchmaker has a different take: Nobiz Like Shobiz remained the Kentucky Derby favorite at 6-1 on Watchmaker's line, despite his loss in the Fountain of Youth.

I must say that I was surprised to see him listed quite as high as 15-1; but I'm equally surprised that Watchmaker still has him as the favorite. He belongs somewhere in between I think, exactly where I'm not sure. He's been presumed to have the most talent, yet he hasn't run the figs to validate that. He seems to have a long way to go mentally, and he has only one more race with which to get there. Tagg, who will try adding blinkers in the morning this week, said that he shies away from the crowd; if he does that at Gulfsream, what is he going to do with 140,000 people there? Maybe he'll run really fast to get away from them.

Wednesday Racing

- Moudez (Xaar) was 6-5 in the Laurel Futurity, his North American debut, last November for Bill Mott. Prior to that, he had raced twice in England, and finished third in a Group 3 stakes. But on the yielding course, Moudez dropped back to dead last in the field of 14, and was never close, losing by 18 lengths. Ugh.

That was his last race until the 4th at Gulfstream on Wednesday. 12-1 morning line from the outside 12 post, he went off at 5-1, but was left at the gate, breaking a good five lengths behind the field. Cornelio Velasquez hustled him up to the back part of the pack, where he stayed until taking off like a rocket around the turn, sweeping the field four wide on the turn, and scooting away in the stretch. The last three eighths went in 35.37; final furlong in 11.34 on the lightning fast course. Still, pretty eye-catching times.

I speculated on Saturday that Shug McGaughey may be ready to break out, but he had a rough weekend. His two Derby hopefuls, Rescue Party and Sightseeing, had rough trips at short odds. On Wednesday, Shug got into the winner's circle with Criminologist, a three-quarters brother to Rescue Party.

And when Fan Time desperately held on to take the feature 8th race, a five furlong sprint, it marked the fifth winner in a row at Gulfstream for trainer Wesley Ward. The former jockey has an overall record of 25-10-5-2 for the meeting.

- At Santa Anita, Les Grands Trois (Officer), making his first start for Bobby Frankel since blowing away maidens at Belmont in July, unleashed a powerful late rally to collar Black Seventeen, who had been pretty impressive himself in his only prior effort, which came just a month after that of the winner. The win, the 869th of his career at Santa Anita, tied Frankel with Charlie Whittingham for the all-time training record at the track.

News and Notes - March 7

- The West Virginia Senate has passed the bill allowing table games at the four racetracks in the state. The House needs to reconcile some minor differences between it and the one they passed a couple of weeks ago. Once the governor signs off, we'll be off to the races for four local referendums on the issue, as attempts to require a statewide vote were once again beaten back. And the fun is already beginning.

Prior to Tuesday’s vote in the Senate, the West Virginia Council of Churches held a vigil outside the Senate chamber and prayed for legislators to have guidance in their decision.

“People ask us why we’ve been here when it seemed like an already done deal,” said West Virginia Council of Churches President Dennis Sparks. “It’s because we wanted to set the momentum for when this goes to a county vote. We will immediately start to work. [Wheeling News Register]

- Magna and Churchill Downs tried to calm fears that they will not make their tracks available to competing ADW's. "We need to make deals with all the distribution channels, and those deals have to make economic sense to both sides," [Magna CEO Michael] Neuman said. [Daily Racing Form] In other words, expect the two companies to use their newly found bargaining power to make economic sense for themselves. Youbet's stock has been on a downslide since the announcement. As for TVG, Matt Hegarty reports that the general consensus is that the company...will likely listen to Magna and Churchill about a proposal to swap racing signals. I don't see that they're really in a position to do otherwise.

And hopefully Churchill will be more generous with its signals than it is with its video archives. As more tracks make their past races available freely to handicappers, Churchill does not. They have not made them available on Cal Racing, and they are only available on the websites of its tracks that are currently in season. So presently, if you're handicapping and looking to watch past races run at Churchill or Calder, you're out of luck.

And while I'm picking on Churchill, am I the only one who thinks that their Derby website is a bit on the cheesy side this year?

- Sounds like the pending installation of synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita and Del Mar may inspire Doug O'Neill to shun the trip to Dubai for Lava Man, and keep him in this country to run in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby Day.

"To close our eyes to that and go after money in a foreign land....If something happened and he got injured, I wouldn't forgive myself. He could be like John Henry and run until he's 9." [DRF]

- A very quiet session of the Fasig-Tipton two-year old in training sale at Calder on Tuesday. This was the sale that produced The Green Monkey last year, and perhaps that fiasco was on the mind of the buyers. The real reason of course for the 12.9% decline in average price was the fact that there were no horses that were the object of desire for both Darley and Coolmore.

"We hoped they would clash, but, to our knowledge, they didn't," said Boyd Browning, Fasig-Tipton's executive vice president and chief operating officer. "There just wasn't a horse here that they both thought they had to have." [Bloodhorse]

However, despite an increase in the buyback rate from 32 to 40%, the sale wasn't half bad when you consider that the average was actually up 16.5% if you take out The Green Monkey; and the median price increased from $200,000 to a record $250,000.

A Friend of Obama

- The New York Times reported today on the front page that, shortly after being elected to the Senate, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama invested in two companies whose principals included donors to his campaign.

One of the companies was a biotech concern that was starting to develop a drug to treat avian flu. In March 2005, two weeks after buying about $5,000 of its shares, Mr. Obama took the lead in a legislative push for more federal spending to battle the disease.

The most recent financial disclosure form for Mr. Obama, an Illinois Democrat, also shows that he bought more than $50,000 in stock in a satellite communications business whose principal backers include four friends and donors who had raised more than $150,000 for his political committees.

The Senator, who we of course have no reason to doubt at this stage, claims that the stocks were bought in a blind trust, and he was unaware of the conflicts. That leads some to wonder exactly why the Times deemed it to be worthy of the front page.

But it's of interest to us who have been following the New York franchise battle because, incredibly, it brings up an extremely familiar name. Obama purchased $50,000 worth of stock in a satellite communications company called Skyterra. And one of the major investors in that company is none other than our very own Friend of New York, Jared Abbruzzese.

He bought his Skyterra shares the same day the Federal Communications Commission ruled in favor of the company’s effort to create a nationwide wireless network by combining satellites and land-based communications systems. Immediately after that morning ruling, Tejas Securities, a regional brokerage in Texas that handled investment banking for Skyterra, issued a research report speculating that Skyterra stock could triple in value.

Tejas and people associated with it were major donors to Mr. Obama’s political committees, having raised more than $150,000 since 2004. The company’s chairman, John J. Gorman, has held fund-raisers for the senator in Austin, Tex., and arranged for him to use a private plane for several political events in 2005. Mr. Gorman declined to comment.

In May 2005, Mr. Abbruzzese, who was vice chairman of Tejas and a principal investor in Skyterra, contributed $10,000 along with his wife to Mr. Obama’s political action committee — a departure from his almost exclusive support of Republicans. Eight months earlier, for instance, he had contributed $5,000 to the Swift Boat group, and he has given $100,000 to the Republican National Committee since 2004.

Gee, when Tejas issued this recommendation, do you think they disclosed that their vice chairman was a "principal investor" in the company they were endorsing? Ha! You may recall that Tejas is the brokerage firm that Senator Bruno invested in, only to sell his shares at a loss. Obama also lost money investing in part of the Abbruzzese empire - he sold his Skyterra shares for a $15,000 loss. And though a Skyterra spokesperson denied that the company had knowledge of Obama's involvement, the whole chapter seems very strange given the fact that this name Abbruzzese pops up again, not to mention his record of contributing mainly to the GOP.

And this news that Abbruzzese donated to the despicable Swift Boat smear campaign, as well as to the RNC, thus contributing to the re-election of a dishonest Administration that now includes a convicted felon, certainly does nothing further to endear Empire Racing to this little corner of the blogosphere. Not that we thought much of them in the first place.

Derby Top Ten

- Here's the LATG Kentucky Derby Top Ten - the horses, people, and things we think will be in the news on and around the first Saturday in May.

1) Great Hunter (Aptitude) moves to the top of my list with his dazzling brush on the turn of the Bob Lewis to win his first race in four months. He ran a lifetime best Beyer of 101; that's 11 points faster than he'd ever run before, but it did not seem to be a taxing effort, and O'Neill said: "He came out of it in great shape....What I really liked was his gallop-out." [Daily Racing Form] The two-prep strategy is a concern, but he did run seven times last year, so it doesn't seem quite as much of one as it is to me in cases like Ravel and, to a lesser extent, Street Sense (who ran five times at two).

2) Any Given Saturday - Pick a Pletcher horse, any Pletcher horse. So how about this one? At least he's scheduled to race three times before the Derby. (Not so for Deadly Dealer, now officially on the Derby Trail after winning his sprint allowance at Gulfstream on Saturday with a Beyer of 104. Pletcher told the Form that he'll give him one shot to earn his way in, either the Arkansas Derby or the Wood. Like Ravel, he would go to the Derby in his 5th lifetime start.)

Any Given Saturday just exudes a lot of class to me; even just on paper, with his $1.1 million price tag, and his nearly unblemished record, which looks even better now looking at his easy win over Sam P last year. That was the allowance race in which the son of Distorted Humor was caught unbelievably wide from the nine post; he looked like the eight horse at Yonkers entering the first turn. Then he made a move on the turn that track announcer Kurt Becker called "breathtaking." He's done everything right - other than getting beat by Tiz Wonderful - since then. Could he be the one to finally get the Toddster on with Bob Costas in the winner's circle?

3) TVG Senior VP David Nathanson remains steadfast even with the announcement by the new franchise holder in New York (wouldn't you like to know?) that they will not renew their contract with the network. "With our exclusive deal with the Meadowlands, thoroughbred racing is diminishing in importance to our business," he says. Nathanson dismisses the Kentucky Derby as "just one of hundreds of graded stakes," and announces that on Derby Day, Ken Rudolph and Todd Schrrmmpff will broadcast live from the sack races at the 23rd reunion of the Merchant Marines Class of 1984.

4) GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney visits the red state of Kentucky, and holds a fund raiser on Derby Eve. He speaks eloquently about the Derby as a way of American life, and assures the generous audience that he backs racing's exemption from online gambling prohibitions. The former governor of Massachusetts is seen having a high old time on Derby Day, even engaging in a friendly contest with rival candidate Rudy Giuliani as to who could change his position on abortion the most times during the most exciting two minutes in sports. The next day, Romney tells a conservative group in Texas that he opposes gambling in all forms, including horse racing, and refers to Kentucky as "center stage" for moral degeneracy. "Sort of Las Vegas-east, Harry Reid-style."

5) Scat Daddy - I picked this horse in the Juvenile, though I didn't bet him because he was a huge underlay at 7-2, drifted up from 5-2. I also liked him against Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Holy Bull. Then I soured on him; his front-running effort in that race was a little weird. But in retrospect, and especially if you accept Pletcher's explanation that he wasn't cranked up, maybe it was just a training race for him - to give him a different experience, and let him get a little tired to get some conditioning. In the Fountain of Youth, Scat Daddy may not have run a big fig and he certainly took advantage of tiring horses. But it was yet another gritty win for this son of Johannesburg; he's shown a lot of heart in his wins, and I see no reason why he won't run on as he stretches out.

6) Nobiz Like Shobiz runs loose and kicks over a drum containing toxic chemicals, spilling its contents into a storm drainage system and causing an ecological disaster. When asked why he did it, he says: "[snort] Heh heh heh, call me green, will ya?" [Bada-boom]

7) Notional / Liquidity / Great Hunter / Doug O'Neill / J Paul Reddam / What / the / hell? How can two guys, neither of whom is named Todd Pletcher have this many really good horses on the Derby trail? We mentioned Great Hunter up top, but all three of them seem virtually the same to me. Their running styles may differ, but they all run close almost every time (just twice out of the money in 18 starts combined). They've all had solid starts to the year, and they all train on Cushion Track. We'll find out more about Liquidity this weekend. Walter pointed out that his prior trip out of state was poor, but the Champagne was just his second lifetime start; and he had only trained once on the just-opened Cushion Track at that point. I think there could be something to that angle, but we shall see.

8) Zanjero - OK, Patrick turned me on to this one. But I'm always willing to take a tout on a live longshot. He did show some nice steady improvement through his five races at age two, culminating with his second in the two turn Remsen. That was the day that Nobiz Like Shobiz had things his own way, and gave us a glimpse of his immense talent, something we haven't seen since. Zanjero was very wide and very good in the Risen Star, sweeping to the lead on the turn. Though he couldn't hold on, he could certainly move forward in the Louisiana Derby this Saturday with Garrett Gomez in for the ride.

9) Genealogists for the website Ancestry.com, which determined that the Rev. Al Sharpton's great-grandfather was owned in slavery by ancestors of Sen. Strom Thurmond, announce that their research shows that conservative crackpot Ann Coulter traces back to thoroughbreds.




















She's by Talk Is Money, out of a dam by the stallion Dike.

10. Hard Spun - Trainer Larry Jones now says that he'll likely run his son of Danzig in the Lane's End at Turfway rather than in the Rebel. The colt just doesn't seem to care for Oaklawn, and his coming back tired after a workout on Monday was the last straw. "He just really doesn't seem to handle this track...There's different horses for different courses, and I just don't know that he's the horse for this course." [Daily Racing Form] That is of course unless the horse is.... Oh, sorry. As I've said, I gained respect for Hard Spun after his loss in the Southwest, which should have served as a good experience mentally and physically if nothing else. And if you're buying Jones' theory that he just doesn't care for the track, then he could be worth picking up in Pool 2 this weekend while he's out of favor.

Change of Plans

- Thanks much to reader Kevin for catching that item in the Form, buried in Jay Privman's lead article, regarding the apparent change of plans for King of the Roxy. And shame on me for ever assuming that logic would prevail when it comes to the Derby Trail, especially with a character like Barry Irwin. I had the horse in the Hutcheson, but precisely because of the cutback in distance. By Littleexpectations, a full brother to Valid Expectations, by Valid Appeal, and out of a Bold Forbes mare, you'd think he'd prefer to stick to the shorter races, but he won impressively, and do you expect Team Valor to pass up taking a shot at the roses?

On the Team Valor website, we read of the picture perfect ride from masterful Eclipse Award winner Edgar Prado. That's funny. It wasn't long ago that they skewered Prado over his ride on Oh So Awesome in their private newsletter. I guess all is forgiven. Until the next time they need somebody to blame.

- Magna officials stated during an investors conference call that slot revenues at Gulfstream have fallen off “significantly” in January and February. [Bloodhorse] They discussed some of the proposed legislative changes I posted about yesterday as possibly providing relief. Maybe there's just too much gambling around - the former Hollywood Dog Track and the Hard Rock Cafe are close by - and neither Pompano Park nor Dania Jai Alai have even opened their slots parlors yet. Though the company announced that it had narrowed its losses and reduced expenses in the 4th quarter, Matt Hegarty of the Form read the fine print.

In a note to its financial statements, the company said that it had an accumulated deficit of $396.3 million and a working capital deficiency of $94.2 million as of the end of last year. "The company's ability to continue as a going concern is in substantial doubt and is dependent on the company generating cash flows that are adequate to sustain the operations of the business," the note stated.

Magna's financial statements for 2005 also questioned the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

That last statement is true, but my recollection is that that was based on the possibility of the sale of the Meadows harness track falling through. The $87.5 million loss for 2006 came despite a $126.4 million gain from that sale. Most ominously, keep in mind that Magna Entertainment (MEC), the track company, is 59% owned by MI Developments, the real estate company which additionally controls some 96% of the voting power of outstanding MEC stock, and to which the track company owes much of its debt.

MID’s relationship with MEC provides the Real Estate Business with the opportunity to participate in the development or redevelopment of MEC’s lands and properties, including those used in its core racing and alternative gaming operations. [MID Development Website]

I imagine that land that Gulfstream sits on would be most valuable as a spot for yet more condos in Hallandale. Already, the company is talking about selling off the Palm Meadows training center.

- The entries are already in for Saturday's Louisiana Derby card at Fair Grounds; no excuse for not being prepared for these races. Unless of course it rains, and all of our work goes right down the drain. I'm most excited for the Louisiana Derby, a fascinating matchup of horses from east and west, some, such as Circular Quay and Liquidity, showing some solid form, and others, like Soaring By and Ketchikan, with seemingly untapped potential, . My very early impression is that you gotta look long and hard at Liquidity, another California horse with solid, improving form who has been working steadily over the Cushion Track at Hollywood. His one trip east was a bust, but what exactly was he doing running in the Grade 1 Champagne off of one race? He does look like a logical favorite given his gaudy Beyer in the Sham, but Circular Quay should take a ton of money from the perception that the accident in the Risen Star prevented him from making a big winning move. But more on this later. (Though one more thought - if Liquidity does win, then how good does Ravel look?)

Yonkers Taking a Big Bite Out of NJ

- It hasn't taken long for the racino at Yonkers to have a profound effect on the racing right across the river at the Meadowlands, and talk about a reversal of fortunes! The Meadowlands has received permission from the Standardbred Breeders and Owners Association of New Jersey to cut its weekly schedule of racing by one day. [Harness Racing News] In the past, the Meadowlands has run at least 10 races during the week, and as many as 13 on weekends; but those numbers are dipping. There were only nine races last Friday, and on Sunday afternoon, many of those with less than the maximum ten entries.

The purse money being offered is about equal at this time, but many horsemen are finding the competition easier at the Yonk. Meadowlands VP Dennis Dowd told the NY Daily News:

"You can have cheaper horses in your stable who may not be competitive here at the Meadowlands and you can go over there only having to beat seven to get the money. Here, you have to beat nine and it's tougher competition. So guys are going to try it at Yonkers, and they are doing it in droves."

Freehold is also feeling the effects - they're talking about seeking permission to cut back from five days to just three.

- Aqueduct jockey Abel Castellano Jr was injured in a spill on Sunday; he suffered a broken collarbone and will be out indefinitely. Castellano was taken to North Shore Hospital given the non-life threatening nature of the injury, pursuant to the latest agreement between NYRA and the jockeys after the Jamaica Hospital spat last month.

- Street Sense continued his preparation for his debut, whenever that will be, with a half mile in 47 seconds.

“He’s as good as when we went into the Breeders’ Cup, right now,” [jockey Calvin] Borel said. “I think by the time we get to the next race, he’ll be even better.”

Among 39 works recorded at the distance Sunday, only reigning Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Round Pond (: 46 ) worked faster. [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

- Here's a little weekend Derby futures report from the UPI: ..among the "most active" on Derby futures were Stormello, Catman Running and King of the Roxy on the up side; Joe Got Even and Forefathers on the down. I guess those bettors didn't read the comments about King of the Roxy sticking to one turn races.

Speaking of futures, I got a note from Las Vegas that Discreet Cat was being quoted at 3-1 for the BC Classic. As I told the sender, I wouldn't take 3-1 on him still being in training by then. Would you?

- Republicans still control the House and Senate in Florida, but gains made by the Democrats last November have emboldened slots proponents to attempt to scale back some of the more restrictive aspects of the bill passed last year.

One of [Senate Minority Leader Steve] Geller's bills would lower the tax rate on the slots to 35 percent, down from 50 percent. It also would expand the number of slot machines allowed at the racinos and lift the ban keeping ATMs off the casino floor. Pompano Beach Democratic state Rep. Jack Seiler is pushing similar reforms in the House.

Another of Geller's bills would allow the racing tracks and jai-alai frontons to host high-stakes poker and dominoes tournaments twice a year, in hopes of attracting additional tourism to the county. [Miami Herald]

- Here's a couple more Derby trail workouts from this morning: Zanjero a half mile in 50.20 at Fair Grounds; Hard Spun a half in 50 seconds flat at Oaklawn.

- And in a very disappointing bit of news, Gorella, the fast closing turf filly whose owner Martin Schwartz was just beaming on TV before her disappointing effort in the Breeders Cup last fall, has now been retired due to an ankle chip. She is out of the Jeune Homme mare Exciting Times, and her 4x4 inbreeding to both Northern Dancer and Sir Gaylord figures to offer interesting mating possibilities. [Bloodhorse]

O'Neill, Lava Man Pretty Hot Too

- Blame me for my east coast bias if you'd like, but, in the wake of Pletcher's five winners at Gulfstream on Saturday, I failed to mention (until now) Doug O'Neill's four winners at Santa Anita, which included, of course, Great Hunter and Lava Man.

For Lava Man, it was a workmanlike, if not dominant performance as he disposed of a competitive field to whom he spotted eight to nine pounds as well as some ground on the final turn, earning a Beyer of 109. He was also hampered by a slowish pace up front, and Nakatani said he waited longer than usual to make his move. "Today I waited and didn't make that standard run of his because the track has been so heavy all day." [SGVTribune.com] The final quarter was run in 25.47 seconds. "He did get a little tired at the end," Nakatani said. "This horse will just do whatever you need him to do." [AP] Lava Man became the third horse to win the Big Cap twice.

Next for Lava Man could very well be the $5 million Dubai Duty Free at 1 1/8 mile on the grass, on March 31. In these remarks made to the North County Times, Doug O'Neill seems to already be conceding that the trip overseas will knock his horse out of subsequent competition for awhile....even for a race as far out as the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August.

"To pass on the Pacific Classic is a little bit of a bummer," said winning trainer Doug O'Neill. "When you have an opportunity to run for $5 million ... if he runs well there, we can zero in on a turf race in the Breeders' Cup."

And while one of his owners told the paper that "(Running in Dubai) is more to prove a point," another said "It is the money." What do you think? In any event, it would be a loss for racing in North America this year, and not the only one caused by the early season, big bucks festival in Dubai.

Great Hunter's owner J. Paul Reddam said that he'll "probably" race just once more, in the Blue Grass. "He likes that track and he would go there . . . and just stay for the Derby." O'Neill told the Orange County Register that "we really weren't expecting him to win today....We just wanted a good performance, something to build on. He ran better than we expected." That's for sure.

Barclay Tagg seems a little less depressed than he did right after the Fountain of Youth, and told the NY Post that the Wood was back in his plans for Nobiz Like Shobiz.

"I'm disappointed we lost, but I don't feel bad about the horse," he said. "We just have to try and get him to come out of his shenanigans soon."

But he's only given himself one more prep in which to do so.

Monday Morning News

- Churchill Downs and Magna will detail at a Monday morning press teleconference three new agreements, including Churchill's purchase of 50% of HRTV, on which Churchill's races will be televised as each of its tracks' agreements with TVG expire. Churchill's upcoming spring meeting will be the first to appear on the network. And the show formerly known as The Works will migrate to HRTV:

As part of its 2007 offerings, HRTV(TM) will broadcast "Target Louisville," a 30-minute television program highlighting the training, workouts and final preparations of Kentucky Derby contenders. "Target Louisville" will air daily during the week leading up to the 133rd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. [Magna Press Release]

Churchill will also announce the formation of their own ADW company, to be called www.twinspires.com, and the two companies will form a joint venture, TrackNet Media Group. That entity will allow the two companies' tracks to be offered on each other's ADW platforms, Churchill's new one and Magna's Xpressbet; and for the companies to package their races and sell them to third parties, thus giving them greater bargaining power in selling their signals to other tracks, OTB's, casinos, and ADW's.

- Here are some early Beyer returns for Saturday's races:

Scat Daddy - 95
Great Hunter - 101
King of the Roxy - 103
Corinthian - 107

The Fountain of Youth number indicates a continued lack of progress Beyer-wise for all of the top four finishers, most notably Nobiz Like Shobiz, who regressed from the 98 earned in the Holy Bull, and didn't show anymore maturity either. But here's a big step forward for Great Hunter, whose previously lackluster numbers were the main flaw in his record. King of the Roxy also moved forward in a big way, but as we noted yesterday, he's destined to remain in one-turn affairs. And Corinthian improved one point on his seasonal debut, and looks like a horse who's ready to build on those numbers.

Notes - March 4

- I didn't bet the Gulfstream Park Handicap, but it saved me some money. I was so anticipating seeing Corinthian (Pulpit) run, and the race was so exciting that I completely forgot about boxing Racketeer and Grand Point in the exacta, and leaving out Sinister Minister in the second at Santa Anita. I wasn't happy as they started through the stretch, but was surprised, impressed, and relieved to see Sin Min hang on gamely for second.

Corinthian's ability last year was as obvious as his volatile temperament and erratic behavior in the stretch. The way he left Jazil in his wake in his four-year old debut has definitely created a buzz, and gave him an air of potential greatness. I don't think he did anything to dispel that notion with his close, but nonetheless solid win over Hesandoldsalt. Hesanoldsalt saved all the ground both turns as Corinthian took the overland route, and he was blindswitched three wide turning for home when Hesanoldsalt crept up the rail. But he once again took command with an exciting burst on the turn. Castellano he "hesitated when he went inside" upon entering the stretch and that "he saw that horse coming at the sixteenth [pole], and he took off again." [Daily Racing Form]

Still, Hesanoldsalt pressed Corinthian until the end, with the last three-sixteenth run in 18.92, a pace of about 25 1/5 seconds. He'd run 24 second quarters throughout, and may have been tiring, but there was no way in my mind he was going to get passed.

- It was a disappointing day for Shug McGaughey; both of his Derby hopefuls figured to be hurt by their post positions, and they both were. Rescue Party was never in it after breaking poorly - again - from the rail as the 2-1 favorite. Deadly Dealer (Concerto), the first of Pletcher's five, is now yet another candidate for the Trail, winning by 7 in front running fashion.

"We weren't positive when we got him how far he'd go since his first two races were sprints on wet tracks."
.....
"It's March 3 and it might be rushing him to get two more starts before May 5, so we might have to just take one shot with him somewhere on April 7 and see what happens," [Daily Racing Form]

Sightseeing, breaking from the almost impossible ten post in the contentious fifth race, lost the requisite amount of ground, but not too much, and certainly not the type of position and momentum lost by Chelokee (Cherokee Run), when he had to back up to last after shuffled back from being close to the pace. His remarkable recovery and easy win is the kind of move that gets people excited. Look for him to be a popular dark horse for Michael Matz if he's listed in the next futures pool.

I was alive in the Pick 3 in that race. I listened to myself in the 4th and threw out the Kimmel first-timer, taking money at 7-2, and the Steve Klesaris entry, at 2-1, yet another of his runners beaten at a short price (and the first of two on the day). I singled Pletcher's first-timer Takes My Song (Songandaprayer), and picked out three horses to lead me into victory with Corinthian. I liked the three coming out of the Hal's My Hope race - Silver Express, High Act, and Highest Degree - and they all ran dismally (Hal's My Hope was a decent 5th in the FOY). Highest Degree was dead on the board for MacPeek; and Silver Express was particularly disappointing for Zito, checking in dead last at 7-2.

I also had King of the Roxy in the Hutcheson, as the front end of a parlay with Drums of Thunder, who was very disappointing in the FOY. King of the Roxy, back to one turn, once again showed that athleticism on the turn that caught the attention of Team Valor, as he contested the lead widest of four in a line on that final turn, and emerged as the clear leader. It was actually refreshing to read Pletcher say: “Barry Irwin (Team Valor) and I talked at the beginning of the year and we decided to concentrate on one-turn races with him." [DRF] Here's one horse at least that will stick to more realistic goals.

Furthermore...

- A correction and a couple of further comments pursuant to my last post. There are actually nine, not eight weeks left until the Derby. If this was, say, 1987 instead of 2007, it wouldn't be at all outrageous to suggest that Nobiz race three weeks hence, and another three weeks after that, which would leave another three weeks until the Derby. Now I guess that would be considered unreasonable, even though the horse needs the experience. But it's also possible that it wouldn't matter, and that the colt just needs time to mature, like Corinthian has now at age four.

I also just wanted to note the nice race by Adore the Gold, as mentioned by Walter and others in the comments. And regarding Stormello, I mentioned that he was tired and the slow closing fractions without emphasizing just how incredibly game this colt was, has he has been throughout his career. Walter mentioned how he similarly dug in to beat Liquidity in the Hollywood Futurity, and I'll add his gritty win over Principle Secret in the Norfolk. The latter was an effort similar to Saturday's except for the fact that he didn't win, as he set a fast pace and held on grimly despite being obviously weary. Here's an extremely game colt who has certainly earned my respect; I wrote earlier in the week of his chances that I don't think he has much of a shot, which might have helped his cause! I certainly didn't change that opinion when I read of his long plane trip to Florida. But you gotta love the way he presses on until the end. He reminds me a bit of Lava Man in that regard.

Now that I've presented segues into Saturday's efforts by Corinthian and Lava Man, I'll get to that shortly. But first, I'm alone in the house, and probably shouldn't write this in public; but there's this old stray cable in the Head Chef's daughter's room left over from the last owner. So when she's not here, I can sneak in and watch Gulfstream and Santa Anita on the OTB channel. So I'll be back after I make some (more) donations.

- But one more thing, as Case just pointed out, nine-year old Evening Attire took the Stymie Handicap at the Big A on Saturday. Track announcer John Imbriale, who must at times have wondered why he came out of retirement for what has been a mostly dismal winter racing season here, was seemingly the only person at the track who was excited about this turn of events. The winning dash home by the venerable son of Black Tie Affiar, making his 53rd career start, was greeted by stony silence, at least where I was. Not one person had him. Somebody must have because he was only 8-1, but perhaps they were at Lien Games in North Dakota or someplace like that.

Derby Outlook Shifts a Bit West

- Well, first of all, what a day Saturday was, eh? There's enough to talk about for the rest of the week, and just based on the events from Gulfstream, no less those at Santa Anita, and even the Big A. The Derby picture is perceived to be different this morning. It took only portions of two races on opposite coasts to change the outlook - Nobiz Like Shobiz floundering through a slow stretch run in the Fountain of Youth as Stormello, tiring after setting a demanding pace, staggered home through a final furlong of 13.75 seconds. The last 3/8ths took 39.22 as Scat Daddy took advantage of the tiring leaders to get the win.

And at Santa Anita, Great Hunter made a mockery of the Bob Lewis with a startling burst of speed as he flew wide around four helpless opponents as they turned for home. It was only a matter of how much he'd win by, and, in fact, Pletcher's Sam P ran a pretty fine race himself for second just 1 1/2 back. The last 2 1/2 furlongs went in 31.55, a pace of about 25.25 for a quarter, and Great Hunter made up almost four lengths in that time while losing ground on the turn. So I think it was a pretty impressive move.

Now, let's try to put the races in proper perspective. In the case of Great Hunter, I think his race was pretty impressive any way you look at it. You can certainly quibble about the quality of the field; he's a Grade 1 winner who was facing a crew that didn't have a graded-stakes placed horse among them. But it was his first race in four months from a trainer who doesn't necessarily have them fully cranked - and indeed, Doug O'Neill indicated before the race that he wasn't 100% there. And the way he did it, after having lost some significant ground on the first turn, was exactly what you want to see. "The plan today was to kick clear and gallop out strong," [jockey Corey] Nakatani said. "He did just that." [AP]

This horse has some nice foundation - this was his 8th career start and he's never been out of the money - yet seems fresh and fit. The two-prep strategy doesn't seem quite so outrageous with this one; the Derby would be his 10th start. As I've mentioned, I like his pedigree. The only question is his slowish figs, but we'll see what he produced on Saturday.

As for the Fountain of Youth, Barclay Tagg, who was extremely confident about Nobiz Like Shobiz leading up to the race; he seemed rather despondent afterwards:

"I think he's a good horse....I don't know why he ran like that. The jock said he was lugging in at the top of the stretch, and you lose a little ground when you straighten him out. The whole thing surprised me. I thought he'd lay third, then go to the front and win. I thought we'd go to the Wood Memorial (gr. I on April 7), but now I don't know." [Bloodhorse]

What does that mean? It sounds like he's considering abandoning the Trail altogether. And just maybe, that would be the best long-term course for a horse that's still learning the game.

On the other hand, I thought there were ample explanations for why "he ran like that." He broke poorly, raced solidly three wide around the first turn, advanced towards the leader as that leader was blazing his second quarter in 22.85, third quarter in 23.83, and was again three-wide on the turn - wider than than turning for home. Then he once again proved to be green, bearing in behind Adore the Gold and having to be taken back off his heels, again checking out the grandstand as if in disbelief of what Stronach has done to it, and finally getting settled on his right lead and mounting a late burst to miss by a half length.

So what was so bad? What he needs most is education and racing experience, and he should have gotten plenty of that. Next time he's faced with some stubborn foes in front of him and closing outside of him, he'll be like, 'oh, I've done this before.' There's nothing wrong with losing if the horse gets something out of it, and it's fair to surmise that he did. The problem as far as the Derby goes, is that I don't know if just one more prep is going to get him where he needs to be. I think that Tagg, who was very casual about the prep schedule, at one point stating that he could go into the Derby off two races, has boxed himself in here. With eight weeks to go, it's too long in my opinion for just one more prep, and too short of a period to get in the two more races that I think would be to his ample benefit. He's a big boy, this Nobiz Like Shobiz, a magnificent specimen, but one with lots to learn, and maybe Tagg has babied him too much.

Turning to the winning Scat Daddy, the incredibly dominant Pletcher's fifth winner of the day (plus a sixth that lost by a nose), the trainer seems to have a real bug up his ass about this horse, doesn't he?

"I never questioned [if he would go two turns]....It was everyone else. The horse wins the Champagne and comes back three weeks later and doesn't fire on what is now, hopefully ... everyone recognizes how Churchill was [speed biased] on that day [of the Breeders' Cup]. And I didn't have enough time between the Champagne and the Breeders' Cup." [Sun-Sentinal]

This is after he won the race! Yeah, everyone else doubted his ability to go two turns sooo much that they made him the 7-2 second choice in the Juvenile! And why should this now make us recognize that Churchill was speed biased? The proper perspective of this race is that Pletcher's colt had the most perfect setup he could possibly get, yet still was life and death to nose an exhausted Stormello at the wire. And he's still complaining about the three week gap before the Juvenile, one that was of his doing? It's not like they suddenly moved the Juvenile up a week. All in all, not a very gracious reaction from a guy that's sitting on top of the racing world.

- Seems as if the California contingent needs to be taken quite seriously this year. Stormello and Notional have now proven to be major factors when shipped outside of the state. Last year, the only West Coaster to succeed out east was Bob and John, and that was in the fluky mud of the Wood Memorial. Could the explanation be that both of these colts have been training regularly over the Cushion Track surface at Hollywood?

Gulfstream Today

- Some observations on Saturday's Gulfstream card:

- In Race 2, a couple of colts who have burned a fair amount of money in their young careers, True Competitor and Marchfield, should vie for favoritism. True Competitor, being by Point Given, is eligible to improve; Marchfield (AP Indy), who led between calls inside the sixteenth pole in his last, makes his second start off a layoff for Mark Casse, who hits at 20% in that category. I watched his race two back from Woodbine, and have two observations on that race from November. First of all, and I know I'm in the minority here, Trakus is stupid. I'll concede the point on its usefulness in terms of providing exact stats on ground loss. But by devoting half of the split screen to it on its telecast, Woodbine either sacrifices the close up shots of the leaders, or, when they do briefly switch to it, force viewers to momentarily actually have to watch the dots to know where their horse is if it's not up front.

Secondly, the field kicked up a cloud of dust on the Polytrack that looked like that which accompanies Pig-pen. Man, what the hell is in that thing? I know I'd be at my doctor getting my lungs x-rayed if I rode through that crap all winter.

Strange to see Sahara Heat in this heat. He ran a great second in his last race, his first on the grass after two disappointing dirt races for Darley; I wrote that he was insanely wide on the turn with Johnny V, who chose him over a Pletcher entry that day. Why he's going back to dirt, I can't say, but Johnny V says vamanos, switches to Vamanos (beaten six lengths by True Competitor in last) and is replaced by Manoel Cruz.

- Rescue Party starts from the rail in Race 3, and I was going to warn to be wary of horses like this who are touted by Haskin as Derby contenders off of maiden wins. Until I actually watched that maiden win, that is. After a slow start, Javier Castellano had an absolute handful with this strapping son of Monarchos, who seemed to tower physically over his rivals. Shug McGaughey is having a slow meeting, with just three winners from 27 runners. But he seems on the verge of a breakout, with a recent record of 12-1-5-2. Rescue Party will have to overcome the rail today as well.

Deadly Dealer may be overbet for Pletcher in his first attempt on a fast track. I recall the debut win by Boogie Boggs at Saratoga; it came at a time when Zito was on a rare roll with first-timers, and in a race that fell apart at the end. So I made a mental note to downgrade the effort. But the race produced four next-out winners, and he ran creditably in his return here against a very tough field, including Spin Master, a contender in the Hutcheson later on.

- Race 4 is loaded with first timers, including a trio of Triple Crown nominees. But all three hail from barns that are ice cold with debut runners. Mr. Sidney is a $3.9 million son of Storm Cat, out of Tomisue's Delight, a Grade 1 winner and half-sister to champion Mineshaft. Trainer John Kimmel is having a great meeting, with eight winners out of 22 tries. But he's 0 for five with first timers, and just 1 for 33 with them at Gulfstream over the last five years.

Perusal makes his debut off three bullet workouts for Shug. He's by Dynaformer, out of Gaze, a Danzig half-sister to Shug's Haskell/Travers winner Coronado's Quest (and when's the next time we'll see a horse accomplish that double). But, as we've documented here before, Shug doesn't win with first-timers much anymore - his winless streak is now 28 going back nearly one year to Pine Island.

Gold Brew, a $475,000 son of Tough Gold, starts for Bill Mott, who is winning at a 15% clip at the meet. But he's 0 for 15 with first-time starters there, and is winless with his last 24 overall, most of those at long odds.

Pletcher has two first-time winners from 16 starters at the meet, but that of course doesn't include anything that happened when his horses started under the name of Anthony Sciamatta, Jr. He has two of them here, including Takes My Song with Velazquez. He's by Unbridled's Song, a 14% first-out sire, out of a half-sister to the stallion Mutakddim, and is a half-brother himself to an Irish stakes winner. This is the Phipps-influenced distaff family of Bluegrass Cat - they both have Dance Number as their third dam.

- Race 5 is a tough allowance; any number of these could get prominent Haskin space with an impressive win. Shug has Sightseeing, second in the Nashua last fall to Day Pass, who ran fifth in Dubai this week. He's stuck out in the ten hole, which seriously compromises his chances here. Silver Express almost overcame the eight post in his last try here; despite being wide both turns, he almost collared front running longshot Hal's My Hope, who stole the race after helping to set a snail's pace. They came home in 36.4 for the last three furlongs. He draws just a little better in post seven today. Highest Degree closed very impressively from way back into the quick closing fractions in that race, and adds blinkers for Ken MacPeek, and that's a 33% move for the barn, having a nice meeting at the Gulf.

- I wouldn't dare pick against Cornthian in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. But Hesanoldsalt and AP Arrow, two horses subject to my derision earlier in their careers, both seem to have developed into seriously nice racehorses. They finished a head apart, just two lengths behind Invasor in the Donn. AP Arrow did so in his first start off a layoff for Pletcher, and I don't know if he was one of his "layoffs are overrated" horses, or if he "wasn't fully cranked." But I know he's much improved after moving from the Lukas barn and seems likely to complete a short exacta here.

- In the Hutcheson, you might want to upgrade Spin Master if Boogie Boggs runs well in the third. King of the Roxy makes his first start, for Pletcher, since running up the track in the Juvenile, so beware, as always. This is the son of Littleexpectations that Team Valor purchased based on Barry Irwin watching him graduate on TV. He gets a nice post here, as well as Edgar Prado, and maybe a little price premium based on the fact that Velazquez rides the barn's Out of Gwedda instead. Prado won his only mount for the barn at the meeting, on Twilight Meteor.

- Fascinating matchup in the works for the Richter Scale, with the undefeated Half Ours taking on Diabolical, who seemed to really develop into a crack sprinter late in his three-year old season for Steve Klesaris. This is his first race since his close second to Thor's Echo in the DeFrancis last fall. However, it may be worth noting that Klesaris not only is 0 for 15 at the meeting, but he's burned more money than the Pentagon while doing so. He's had losers at 3-5, even money, 6-5, 8-5, 2-1 and 5-2 twice each, 9-2, 5-1....only three started at double digit odds. So beware.

- And I do like Drums of Thunder in the Fountain of Youth. When I picked him for a piece of the Holy Bull, I noted that he seems to prefer two turns. But even at the one-turn mile that day, he continued his recent improvement, conceding ground on the turn to Nobiz Like Shobiz, but finishing persistently to only miss by 1 1/2. Now he gets what I think is his preferred route, and I like his chances to complete the exacta, at least. There's no denying the talent of Nobiz Like Shobiz, and if he puts it all together, he'll make me feel silly for picking against him again. But he's still quite green, and I thought Gary West made a point to think about when he said that he hasn't really shown any improvement since last fall. My sources tell me that the connections of Adore the Gold are extremely confident that the horse will handle distance; but the outside post, and the presence of plenty of speed inside of him, make this a tough task.

And by the way, what's with the trip comment of All out, prevailed for Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Holy Bull? Would you classify that as an all out finish? As a matter of fact, Velasquez started to ease him up just as he got to the wire. Oh well, enough of my babbling, enjoy the races and good luck!

Too Much Shobiz For One Day

- It's feast or famine these days - either there's very little going on, like last weekend, or there's far too much to give every race its proper due. It's the whole "big day" syndrome inspired by the Breeders Cup that I'm always bitching about here, but at the risk of beating a dead horse (oooo....can't believe I've never used that one before), there's very little space devoted in the press devoted to horse racing to start with, so how does one expect that there will be any meaningful coverage when there's too much to cover? (On this issue, I apparently am in total disagreement with the Las Vegas Review Journal's Richard Eng.)

I say what's wrong with stakes races during the week like the old days? No one goes to the track anymore anyway (well, mostly), and the ones that do will go to see a good Grade 1 or two with a solid supporting card anyway. And since most bets are made off track, and as fans and bettors are able to access more live race video on the internet moving forward (hopefully), what difference does it make which days the races are run on? I know you guys and girls will log on to wager on and watch a weekday stakes race. Look at all the handle one sees on big Pick Six jackpots that occur during the week. I'm not talking about the Grade 1's of course, but I don't see any harm in running, say, the Hutcheson on a Thursday. It would certainly present a far better chance of newspaper editors devoting some meaningful space to the race instead of the one or two lines it will probably get on Sunday.

Anyway, this weekend we have of course the outstanding card at Gulfstream, with the Fountain of Youth, and Corinthian set to wow us again in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Forefeathers and a couple of Pletcher horses, King of the Roxy and Out of Gwedda, meet in the Hutcheson. Half Ours and Diabolical in the Richter Scale. A couple of Derby trail dark horses from Shug McGaughey, Sightseeing and Rescue Party, compete in separate allowance races. And on the West Coast, Lava Man makes his 2007 dirt track debut in the Santa Anita Handicap (though don't plan on seeing it unless you have HRTV); and Great Hunter makes his long awaited three-year old bow in the Bob Lewis. Argh, I don't even know where to start.

So, instead, here's some odds and ends that caught my attention today:

- Trainer Bill Kaplan sends out Drums of Thunder, one of his three Derby hopefuls, in the Fountain of Youth. I quite liked his wide second place to Nobiz in the Holy Bull. Kaplan amazingly has just eight horses in his stable at Calder!

"Either I'm an unbelievable trainer, or I have a tremendous eye, or I'm the luckiest son of a gun on the face of the earth, or I have been blessed by a supernatural power....I have a feeling it's the latter two. I'm really amazed myself." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

The other two are Imawildandcrazyguy, who will run in the Louisiana Derby next week, and Storm In May, entered in the Hutcheson. He paid a total of $92,000 for the three of them, man!

- As always, keep in mind that these Derby preps are just that, preps, especially for horses making their first starts of the year. Doug O'Neill said, of Great Hunter:

"He's doing great, but we're not going to have him super involved early in the race. That's not his style....If they're not going overly quick, he might not be able to get there, but fitness-wise, we've got him pretty close to where we had him going into the Breeders' Cup." [NTRA]

As for Notional, O'Neill's brother Dennis told Jerry Klein, doing his usual excellent weekly column for FOX Sports: "He'll probably run once more, in either the Florida Derby, the Wood or the Arkansas Derby." Er...thanks, that's really helpful.

- Nobiz Like Shobiz is another one that's being mentioned for the Wood (yay!). Gary West of the Dallas-Ft Worth Star Telegram, has an interesting take on the horse that many consider the Derby favorite at this time. He feels that the son of Albert the Great hasn't improved measurably since he won his debut in September at Belmont Park. Any horse's journey to the Kentucky Derby is all about development and progress, and he hasn't taken a significant step forward.

Nobiz Like Shobiz indeed has not made much progress on his Beyers; the numbers read 96-92-97-98. More importantly to me is the fact that he looked every bit as green in the Holy Bull as he ever has, having trouble changing leads and seeming to look around in the stretch. West also feels that the colt has benefited from racing on larger circumference tracks that favor his sheer talent and forgive his lack of grace; and points out that the last Derby winner to never have previously raced on a track as small as Churchill's one mile circumference was Seattle Slew.

- Wait A While makes her four-year old debut in the Honey Fox Handicap at Gulfstream on Sunday.

- John Pricci notes on MSNBC.com that Street Sense is really picking up the pace in his morning workouts, and doing so when it counts.

Over a demanding Palm Meadows surface Tuesday, Street Sense worked five furlongs in 1:00. But the real story were early splits of :12 2/5, :25 and :37.2/5, meaning he finished up in :22 3/5. He galloped out completing six furlongs in 1:11--that’s another furlong in :11 4/5--and out seven furlongs in 1:25 2/5.

- Pegasus Wind is off the Derby trail with a cracked bone, but Wayne Lukas has high hopes for Flying First Class, whose 107 Beyer, earned when he graduated in his second race on Feb 19, is the highest by a three-year old this year. Robert Yates reports in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette that Lukas has coaxed Edgar Prado to travel to Oaklawn to ride the colt in the Rebel on March 17. “[Prado's agent] Bob Frieze and I are friends....I told him I’ve got one he [Prado ] needs to test drive. I think he felt like he was good enough of a horse.”

Talk about obscure breeding, this colt is a son of Perfect Mandate, a winless Gone West stallion standing in California for $5,000; and he's out of a mare by Flying Sensation, a Flying Paster stallion who won just once in 23 tries (though he earned over $350,000).

Don't Mess With The Mighty M

- While we're diddling around here trying to think of how to make drug suspensions meaningful in thoroughbred racing, but not too meaningful lest we punish someone too harshly because gee y'know it could have been accidental or maybe the trainer wasn't actually there and isn't directly responsible and it wouldn't be fair to the owners or horses if they were banned and blah, blah, blah.....

Monticello Raceway, the upstate harness track we used to call "The Mighty M" back in the day, has decided to throw the book....no, the entire catalog at those who are caught using EPO's or similar drugs, including snake venom, by telling them to get lost and take their sulky with them.....permanently!

"If we catch someone, they are out of here," said Cliff Ehrlich, senior vice president of Monticello Gaming & Raceway, in an exclusive Record interview on Tuesday. "It's an industry-wide problem, and we want to make sure our horsemen understand that the time is over for us to allow anything like this to ever happen at Monticello. We are clearly sending a message and hope that other tracks follow suit." [Record Online]

The main problem of course is catching them. EPO's remain notoriously difficult to test for, since cheaters use the drug in advance of races, and its detectable traces are often gone by race day. Currently, state rules only allow for the first three finishers in a race to be tested, making the tests largely worthless. Only 13 horses have been caught statewide since New York began testing for EPO. Four raced at Monticello.

On the other hand, Delaware last year greatly expanded the circumstances under which they can test standardbreds for EPO's and related substances as follows:

* Once a horse is entered to race.

* Any horse that was entered or raced, within 60 days of entry or race.

* Any horse showing the presence of EPO, DPO, or like antibodies.

* Any horse in the care, custody, and control of a trainer having a horse that tested positive for EPO, DPO, and like substances, through a screening test.

Horses that die also are subject to the test. [Harness Tracks of America]

Of course, tracks like Monticello need the backing of the New York State Racing and Wagering Board in order to implement these harsher rules, and as noted in this editorial on the Record Online site (the internet version of the upstate Times Herald Record), the initial reaction from the state was not encouraging.

It would seem that state officials would not only welcome the news from Monticello but also rush to embrace these procedures and encourage their adoption elsewhere. If testing is to be enhanced and expanded, it will need the full and enthusiastic cooperation of the state Racing and Wagering Board.

So what was the reaction? The press secretary for the board declined to comment and refused to allow the chief of racing operations to be interviewed.

That is unacceptable behavior from the people who ultimately are responsible for the reputation of the sport.

If they don't want to get involved with solving this problem, then we need other leaders who will.

And by the way, kudos to the Times Herald Record and reporter Justin Rodriguez, who broke the story on the rampant use of EPO's and snake venom at Monticello last month. No doubt that his aggressive reporting on the issue encouraged track management to take the steps that it has (which also includes harsher penalties for "milkshakes").

Race of the Day - March 1

- The Race of the Day for Thursday comes from Santa Anita, and it actually bore some similarities to the race from Gulfstream on Wednesday, in that it was a maiden special weight on the turf for four year olds, and that you wouldn't have given the eventual winner much of a chance when they turned for home. In fact, Skellytown looked out of it at the sixteenth pole, and it looked as if two outside closers were about to blow by him. But he suddenly took off, and mounted a desparate late charge with Victor Espinoza to emerge from what was at one point nearly six of them strung out across the track. He just nipped Seastate at the wire in a quick final furlong of 12.26. Check it out on Cal Racing.

Skellytown is a grandly bred colt who was making his second start for Richard Mandella; 20-1 in his debut in January, a late rally earned him 2-1 favoritism here. He's by the Derby/Belmont winner and accomplished sire Thunder Gulch, out of Miss Dahlia (Strawberry Road), a daughter of the remarkable racemare and broodmare Dahlia. That makes his dam a half sister to the Grade 1 grass winners Dahar, Dahlia's Dreamer, Delegant, and Rivlia. So it should be little surprise that Skellytown likes the turf, and he should like distances longer than this mile race.

- Thor's Echo was a badly beaten sixth in his debut in Dubai. And Day Pass, the previously undefeated Derby hopeful who previously raced for Darley (and now for Godolphin), was out of the money in his three-year old debut, beaten by Asiatic Boy, a Southern Hemisphere three-year old who won the race in 1:48.27, a tick faster than Discreet Cat's (Forestry) U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) last year at the same distance. [BRIS]

And speaking of Discreet Cat, he's apparently feeling better.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor said: “He was a bit quiet this morning and we found he had a bit of a temperature.

“It’s a real shame as he was working well and in good condition. He is looking much better already and we will see how he is in the next couple of days.” [Dubai Racing Club Blog]

I still say he's no lock to run in the World Cup. “He has other options on Dubai World Cup night, but we are still thinking about the Dubai World Cup itself." We'll see.

- Hot trainers: winners on Thursday for Wesley Ward, Christophe Clement, and Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream. Oh, and that Pletcher guy too.

The Empire That Won't Go Away

- The announcement by Governor Spitzer that he will convene a new panel to conduct public hearings and hear presentations by the current, and perhaps new franchise bidders, comes as a blow to Excelsior (not to mention the members of the Ad Hoc Committee who so diligently performed their duties), though certainly not an unexpected one. Though Spitzer said that the committee's report and recommendation will serve as a "starting point," the process has been opened up to any new bidders who emerge by March 6. You can expect Excelsior to still refer frequently to the Committee's recommendation, and I imagine that it certainly won't hurt their chances, especially if it comes down to a mano-on-mano with Empire.

For NYRA, the additional $32 million in state loans approved by a New York bankruptcy court on Wednesday clears the way for them to make it through the end of the year and their franchise term. In addition, Spitzer, who in the last two days has presided over two deals - one over worker's comp, and the other over civil confinement of sex offenders - that his predecessor was unable to broker during his ten years in office, wants the VLT's up and running at Aqueduct. State officials are looking to have a deal with NYRA and its business partner, MGM Mirage, by March 16 [Albany Times Union], and I believe that it will really happen this time. Just a guess here, but perhaps the deal, in conjunction with the new loan, will involve NYRA dropping its bankruptcy filing (though it has adamantly insisted it will not drop its land claim....and we fervently hope it won't drop its suit against the Pataki Administration for its blatant and inexcusable stalling on the racino approval.)

The new panel serves as a breath of fresh air for NYRA, and Charles Hayward was understadably ecstatic.

"NYRA is eager to participate in a process where integrity is a prerequisite and advancing the future benefits to New York racing and the state’s interests are aligned,'' Hayward said in a statement. "NYRA is currently the industry leader in integrity and believes strongly that the pure not-for-profit model is best positioned to meet the primary standard for selection.” [Bloodhorse]

This clears the way for NYRA to get out from under the RFP process and have a new chance to make its case. By virtue of the Ad Hoc Committee's working assumption that the state owns the land, the RFP process was by its nature virtually an adversarial one for NYRA. The formalities of the procedure that required the association to detail all of the transgressions of their past management put a big black mark on their bid. NYRA may now have a chance to frame the debate more in terms of which entity is really best qualified to conduct racing in the state, a category in which their experience gives them a big advantage, and to question the true motives of the other bidders in terms of their commitment to racing as opposed to enriching themselves from slots.

As far as Empire goes, man, to me, they are like the Thing That Won't Go Away. They were losers in the RFP process, the subject of political scandal and popular disdain - really, I don't know anyone who likes them - yet here they are with as good of a chance as anyone. I'm not going to rehash the details of my beef with them; you can read that in this post I wrote in October. But to sum up, I feel that they made themselves difficult to root for as a result of their arrogance (especially in ignoring widespread sentiment against Magna and bringing them on board), cynicism, some gross lapses in judgment, and, especially, their bellicose, boorish, and downright sophomoric press releases and statements in which they twisted the facts (if not outright lied) and stomped their feet like two-year olds when informed of the Committee's decision to recommend Excelsior.

Since that time, they have apparently fired the PR agency behind that failed strategy, and have thankfully toned down the rhetoric. However, we have also since learned of the federal grand jury investigation into the ties between their former director Jared Abbruzzese and Senator Bruno, as well as their proposed takeout increase that was tucked into their bid, behind their sunny "we're all about the racing fans" town meetings.

Empire has tried to sweep the Abbruzzese affair under the rug by buying out his shares, and issuing a press release in which they hailed themselves for their "integrity" for conducting a sham investigation that resulted in his removal. But isn't that the same as the Ad Hoc Committee dismissing NYRA's integrity efforts as one that would not have occured if not for the corruption there in the first place?

Empire has succeeded in making a huge issue out of the NYRA indictments, which involved a tax scam amongst low level employees several years ago. So how can they expect us to disregard any suspected recent attempt to illegally influence a government official by one of their key figures - a Director, a maximum shareholder, and a man described as a "driving force" behind their organization? In fact, given Abbruzzese's well-documented reputation as an agressive and hard-driven businessman, isn't this recent suggestion by a commenter totally plausible?

On December 9, James Odato reported in the Albany Times-Union that Empire wrote to the Committee to accuse Excelsior of utilizing unregisterd lobbyists.

Failure to disclose bidding team members or to report any lobbying to the lobbying commission would be "a ground for disqualification," said Jeff Perlee.

Given the fact that Abbruzzese himself is being investigated for being an unregistered lobbyist, don't you think that's a statement that Perlee would like to have back? Considering that this story was published one day after word of the investigation into the relationship between Bruno and Abbruzzese broke, what was he possibly thinking?

Here I actually agree with Perlee - I think Empire should be disqualified if those allegations against Abbruzzese prove to be true. (And for that matter, so should Excelsior if Richard Fields is found to be guilty of the same.) At the very least, they should be questioned long and hard about how they can declare themselves to be this shining beacon of integrity without addressing, in a meaningful manner, both the Abbruzzese affair, and the entire matter of how and why so many principals of Friends of New York, which proclaimed themselves as a neutral fact-finding entity with no interest in bidding for the franchise (and which solicited donations on that basis), ended up doing so anyway as Empire Racing.

Discreet Cat To Miss Prep

- Discreet Cat is out of the Lahan Burj Nahaar at Dubai today due to a temperature; this according to the Dubai Racing Club Blog. Simon Crisford said that the colt will now train up to the World Cup.

“Discreet Cat had a slightly elevated temperature this morning, and sadly he will not be able to run.

“It is disappointing, as we were all looking forward to seeing him return to action.”
....
“It is not ideal in terms of his World Cup preparation to miss this race. We will now go to plan B and try to give him a racecourse gallop to ensure that he is spot-on for the World Cup.”

Still think he's going to make the big showdown with Invasor?

- As spring approaches, Derby fever blossoms, and Patrick Biancone is always subject to a particularly acute case. Belgravia, having recovered from a lung infection, has been sent to Keeneland where he is preparing for the Lane's End at Turfway on March 24. However, Biancone sounds determined to make the Derby by hook or by crook, telling the Form that if need be, he would attempt to make the Derby off just one prep, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14. Either way, the Derby would be the first time that Belgravia will have run on real dirt. In fact, I don't know if he's ever even worked out on dirt; a look at the pp's for his first race, at Keeneland, show that all his works were at Turfway; and all of his recent works have been at Hollywood.

And Todd Pletcher confirmed that Ravel will make only one more start before the Derby, that in the Santa Anita Derby. "Everybody's on board with the plan." Even the horse?