Odds On the Big A

Even as Governor Paterson reportedly has his recommendation on the Aqueduct racino in hand (this reader says that he actually has two to consider), at least one of the bidders is still taking its case to the local community around the track. The Queens Chronicle reported last week that SL Green/Hard Rock made a presentation on Thursday.

“Hard Rock is the right balance,” [Pres/CEO Marc] Holliday said. “Its recognized brand and quality entertainment will attract younger and older players across the stratum. People flying in from JFK will say, ‘I hear there’s a Hard Rock, I want to see it.’”

One of this group's big pitches is that they'll be the first to generate a revenue stream (“shovel-ready, in the ground, the day after the award.”)

And thanks to the reader who alerted us to this article in Crain's which, more importantly than comprising yet another virtual press release for Steve Wynn, contains, towards the bottom, a handy pocket guide to the six bidders, the financial portion of their bids (or at least what is known about them), and the ups and downs of their proposals.

This is a tough call; handicapping without the Form as I said before. I can't say I have a favorite; neither a particular personal preference, nor a clue as to the most likely winner. But I'll give it a shot and take the Crain's piece one step further by coming up with a morning line.

Aqueduct Entertainment Group (3-1): Competitive bid of $251 million (contingent on 7,650 machines; $301 million with 10,000), a plethora of local connections on the real estate/construction side, and approval by local unions could compensate for the lack of brand name recognition of gaming partner The Navegante Group. Presence of Senator Malcolm Smith's longtime confidante Rev. Floyd Flake doesn't hurt either.

SL Green/Hard Rock (4-1) - Boosted its bid to $275 million, and has the Hard Rock brand name as mentioned above. Manhattan-based realtor SL Green has been endorsed by several local unions. But, as mentioned by Crain's, they were passed over in favor of Delaware North the first time around.

Aqueduct Gaming (6-1), Buffalo-based Delaware North's group, has rallied late with a stepped-up publicity effort and a major community initiative after appearing indifferent early on (though it's original $100 million upfront offer remains intact with an additional $200 million to follow). The addition of Harrah's adds an experienced operator and an interesting cross-marketing twist which is probably not allowed under the now-disappeared MOU. And, like the two bidders above, Aqueduct Gaming has been reported to have reached accommodations with the unions. So I listed them as the third choice on these merits. However, a part of me wants to list them as the rank outsider - I'd be pretty damn shocked if the state goes back to the company which dropped out after failing to raise the money last time. And, as I've mentioned several times, given the reports of an investigation by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo into lobbyist Patricia Lynch's dealings with the Assembly Speaker, I don't know if her involvement here is going to help or hurt.

Steve Wynn (8-1) has offered $300 million, but he was the only bidder of the six contenders to receive a bad grade from the hotel unions as reported by Jim Odato in the Times Union last week. Whatsmore, the scale of his building proposal is laughably ridiculous, and it wouldn't be ready until 2011. He'd be the favorite if the decision is based on the number of newspaper and online articles each bidder has been featured in. But, quite simply, he sometimes comes off as a nut.

Penn National (12-1) might be worth a ducat at long odds. No local connection here makes them a dark horse. But a $250 million bid (as reported elsewhere though not in the Crain's piece) puts them in the ballgame, and the company is an experienced gaming operator with a solid balance sheet which would probably do as competent a job as anyone else.

R. Donahue Peebles/MGM Mirage (20-1) didn't increase its $150 million bid, and doesn't have a lobbyist; good luck with that. Whatsmore, no local flavor and MGM Mirage has had some well-publicized financial woes (though things have been looking up of late). Would be a major surprise.

Sunday Morning Notes and Nuts

Oh yeah, they're back at Belmont, first two days in the books, two days of awful weather, sloppy tracks, off-the-turfers, and around 7,200 people in attendance, combined. Welcome to what NYRA still bills as the Fall Championship Meet ("you lie!"). At least the weather is beautiful here on Sunday morning; great day to sit inside and watch football.

Belmont is featured in the Own This City section of Time Out New York magazine; perhaps a result of the recent marketing and PR efforts of the revamped communications department at NYRA. The writer got most things right, but not everything. She says, misleadingly, that "you can wager as little as $1 on most races, and even ten cents on the day’s final race." And she asserts that jeans aren't permitted in the clubhouse, and that the races are "about a minute apiece." Makes it sound like a fancy-schmancy quarter horse track, maybe the distinctive Steve Wynn design.

Then the article degenerates into a discussion of lewd horse names of the past

Horse names are the new porn pseudonym! Try two of our fail-proof formulas.

The hook from your favorite song + your drink of choice = Heartless Jägerbomb.

Or your favorite candy + sex position = Starburst Cowgirl. You’re set, Sweet Child O’Wine.

Huh? Horse names are the new porn pseudonym? Well, any publicity is good publicity as they say. I guess.

- The Aqueduct racino saga goes on, with Labor Day being the latest missed deadline. If news reports are accurate, Governor Paterson was to have received the recommendation of his advisors by the holiday; but, with the process shrouded in secrecy, we're handicapping without a Form here. Two of the three leaders who will ultimately make the decision were in Albany when the New York Senate was in town for a special session on Thursday to try and pass some mostly non-controversial legislation (though not two bills related to the racing industry).

But it seemed pretty much business as usual. NY Senate G.O.P. Blocks Stronger Albany Ethics Rules read the headline in the Times. With a senator mourning the death of his father, the Democrats were one frustrating vote short of the required 32 votes to pass legislation. The Republicans objected to an amendment which would stack a key campaign finance committee with Democrats. And while perhaps the GOP had a valid point (though the fact is that the Democrats have earned their majorities and positions via the popular vote), you'd still think they'd strive to avoid headlines such as these which figure to haunt them in November 2010.

The Democrats withdrew the legislation altogether figuring they'll have the numbers next time. However, with Senator Hiram Monseratte's trial for assaulting his girlfriend set to begin Monday, who knows what the near-term future will bring? This trial definitely goes in the "highly anticipated" category given its significant political implications, the sensational nature of the charges, and the potentially incriminating video said to exist. Monseratte turned down a plea bargain deal under which he could have retained his Senate seat and, presumably, his committee chairmanship and stipend which were restored to him after he flipped back to the Democrats after the coup. So it's full steam ahead, and I'll be keeping an eye on this one here.

- The Rangers have opened their training camp, and a reader sent along a note about one-time Blueshirt Eddie Olczyk hitting a big Pick Six at Hollywood Park. "Every squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, so I just happened to get lucky." On a $166 bet, Olczyk collected, according to this article , some $500,000, a pretty jumbo nut indeed!

Final Stretch

Here's some sights and sounds from Saratoga on Saturday night, the first of two nights of the Final Stretch Music Festival; eight bands did their thing in various nooks and crannies around downtown. In the past, the music wrapped up by 9:30 or so, but it was moved back to 7 to 11 this year, making it a bit more festive than in the past. It's quickly become a staple of the final weekend, and thus far, it hasn't yet been diluted by excess expansion, like at some certain other annual event in town. However, though I do think that five weeks at the races would do, I'm no longer in favor of Labor Day coming back downstate. In fact, it's become perhaps my favorite weekend of the meet, and the Final Stretch festival is part of the reason.


These guys were kinda cute - the Two Bits String Band, playing in front of the Eddie Bauer on Broadway. The guy playing his tie is what did it for me.



Happy Balky and The Good Livin', in the parking lot of the Ben and Jerry's down on Putnam Street. The singer - the one with the really nice voice - is Brittny Kissinger. She was billed as a former star of the Broadway stage. I was naturally skeptical about that, but, in fact, she played Annie in 1997 and even appeared on Saturday Night Live.



And this homegrown duo, Phantogram, was definitely the buzz band of the night, with a large group hanging around even between sets. In fact, I see that Phantogram is doing a couple of shows here in the city this week. Not for free though, and I don't think that the Mercury Lounge will have quite the same ambiance as the driveway of the Adirondack Trust Company under a full moon in Saratoga Springs. Not even close.

- Well, I guess that's really it for this summer music season; and this year, I saw, absolutely free, and in no particular order - David Byrne, Black Moth Super Rainbow, Ian Hunter, these jazz dudes (and a dudette playing the part of Miles Davis), Dan Friel, Mountains, Scanner, Joni Mitchell John Kelly, Here We Go Magic, Bachelorette, The xx, Blank Dogs, The Pains of Being Pure At Heart, Steven Bernstein's Millennial Territory Orchestra (with Vernon Reid and Bernie Worrell), The Luminescent Orchestrii, Ribbons, Q-Tip, Fucked Up, The New York City Philharmonic, The Walkmen, School of Seven Bells, the legendary Mission of Burma, and the indefatigable Dinosaur Jr., on tour for the foreseeable future, and coming to a town (or country) near you. (And, not for free, The Pretenders, Cat Power, Juliette Lewis, Joe Morris, Hercules and Love Affair, future stars Screaming Females, and Dinosaur Jr., again.)

Odds and Ends

I got a little beat up over comparing the fractions of the Woodward to the Haskell on the grounds that Monmouth is a faster track, and that's a fair point. Still, while we can quibble over a few tenths of a second, the Haskell was fast too; so was the Mother Goose for that matter - six furlongs in 1:09.29 is still quick, down a straightaway or not. So my point remains that she ran basically the same race in the Woodward as she has in her four races for Asmussen...and really, if you look at her pp's, all year long too if not quite as fast early on in the year.

Now, Team Rachel is hinting that Rachel Alexandra seemed tired before the race, and that her training regimen was interrupted by the bad weather. A reader reminded me that she threw Borel during the warm-up, (though reader o_crunk says she was just getting sick of his hotdogging).

But who knows if Macho Again really would have gotten by had the race been a bit longer. Sure looked that way, and that seems to be the common wisdom, especially now in light of the excuses we're hearing from the winning team. But you never know, and can't really make assumptions. Maybe Borel was thinking about how he was going to celebrate and took his foot off the pedal in those last couple of strides when the colt really seemed to surge. I dunno, given the determination that the winner showed, I think she would have taken a piece of his left ear off before she let him pass.

- I think I was pretty good with my over/under of 30,000 for the crowd, though a couple of thousand or so short with my actual crowd pick. I think NYRA did pretty well to draw some 9,000 more than last year; and it's remarkable how easily they handle a crowd of that size there. It was a bit strained at 39,000 on Whitney day, but the lower 30's are a cinch. They announced over 50,000 on the Spinner Sunday, which we know is malarkey. But I thought they had at least as many actual bodies in the house as they did on Saturday.

- Johnny V took the shorter route home on Pyro; that's the long and short of the Forego. I had runner-up Kodiak Kowboy, who took the overland route with Gabriel Saez, to start off pick three's and four's, and I'm really sick of losing to Sheikh horses. Pyro got a Beyer of 103.

Saranac winner Al Khali is the 4th graded stakes winner of the year (from eight overall) for Medaglia D'Oro. Easily the top second-year sire by earnings, he's 4th on the general list behind Giant's Causeway, Tiznow, and Distorted Humor. I loved Al Khali in this race, but fell a nose short of nailing a $48 double when 7-1 Chorus Music got nailed at the wire by Ketubah in the preceding race....that one hurt.

Dublin is the first stakes winner for rookie sire Afleet Alex; it had been a quiet year for the Preakness/Belmont winner with just seven winners, and a couple of minor stakes placings, from 35 runners to date. They pretty much walked home in the Hopeful; it took the winner 40.13 seconds to get home, final furlong 13.44, ugh. Dublin is out of the Grade 1 winner Classy Mirage, who is, in turn, a half sister to the Grade 1 winner Missy's Mirage.

- Linda Rice threw everything but the stable sink into winning the training title, as I'm sure you noticed from all of the coupled entries you saw from her over the last few days. The Toddster has the numbers, so Ms. Rice had to scrounge for runners.

"I'm looking at the horses standing in my barn and not sure if I can follow through, so I was concerned the last couple of days because I didn't have the right horses in." [NY Daily News]

I'm happy for her; a training title obviously means far more to her than to Pletcher, at least from a business standpoint. To get that close and fail would be particularly tough for a relatively small barn like hers; that as opposed to guys like Pletcher who have the sheer numbers to compete for the title every year. But if Richard Dutrow had said that he was concerned about not having the right horses, but that he was running them anyway because of some personal goal, he'd get slammed for putting his own self-interest ahead of his horses' welfare.

Feeling Macho

I've personally witnessed many dramatic finishes in stakes races in my day. However, those instances in which those final desperate lunges were of true historical significance are singular moments that are few and far between. The Belmont Stakes of 1978, 1998 and 2007 come to mind; Forego's championship-clinching rally to nip Honest Pleasure in the 1976 Marlboro Cup is another. Rachel Alexandra's desperate win in the Woodward is a worthy addition to that list.

But what I think I'll remember most about the race is the roar of the crowd of 31,717 as the filly strained to hold off her pursuer. We were standing behind the clubhouse seats around the eighth pole, managing to catch a glimpse of the action as they went by. From that point, attention turned to the TV screens, and the crescendo grew from there. Women and men, old and young alike all around us were shouting, screaming, absolutely pleading, begging, imploring her to make it home. It was as loud and urgent a cry as I've ever heard at a racetrack. I'm sure it got the attention of any spirits, be they human or equine, who make their home in the rafters of the historic track these days.

I was amongst those who wasn't expecting a classic...at least not in the sense of it being a competitive race. I was surely wrong when I said it wouldn't be worth the trip, as it turned out. So, what's the explanation for the close finish? Did she bounce? Has her arduous campaign finally caught up to her? Was it the result of a difficult trip (and if so, was it one which could have been avoided)? Or did people like myself simply underrate her opposition; putting more importance in Beyer figures than physiology?

The obvious question about Borel's ride is why he would get involved in a pace duel with a horse like Da'Tara. There was concern before the race that the boys could gang up on her with speed from the outside and force her to the front. But Da'Tara?? He broke from the rail, and was not expected to be an early factor. (He ended up being eased for the second race in a row....can Maggie Moss please buy this one for $5000 before someone gets hurt?) I'm really not much for second guessing these guys riding 1,000 pound animals, but why wouldn't he just let that horse go on; doesn't he read the Form? It seemed as if he had a chance on the turn to take back, tuck in, and let Pass the Point do the dirty business up front.

However, I think that Borel rides this horse the same way every time - with a cocky swagger that's gonna get them beat one of these days. Just as he was 3-4 wide pressing a quick pace in the Haskell, or head and head from the outside with Big Drama in the Preakness, he rode his filly as if she just can't lose, showing that he just doesn't need to care about trivialities like lost ground or fast pace.

And the fact is that she's run almost identical races in the three she's won against males, at least in my view. A big deal has been made of how fast she ran early on Saturday; but her opening fractions of 22.85 and 46.41 are not much quicker than those in the Haskell (22.99 and 46.43); and remember she was three wide on the first turn that day. Her three-quarter split of 1:10.54 was actually her slowest since the Preakness.

And once again, it was on the final turn for home where I believe she separates herself from the rest. For others, the drive for home has already begun by then; but Rachel Alexandra is always well within herself at that point. Once again, Borel was just cruising here; while Prado was full-out on the hapless Pass the Point. She disposed of him with a mere flick. The home stretch is the point at which thoroughbreds running on dirt start to slow up, this remarkable filly included. But for her, the earnest running has just begun, and when she re-breaks coming out of the turn, it's usually enough to open up an insurmountable lead.

This time though, she had less margin for error. Macho Again, a horse which I've admittedly totally disrespected to this point, trailed early, and had to run three sub-24 second quarters just to reach contention; including a third quarter split of 23 flat as the filly was loping along. However, helped in part by a ground-saving ride by Albarado, Macho Again was able to sustain his rally and give the crowd the yips in the closing yards, getting the last furlong in 12.49 (as opposed to 12.81 for the winner), and earning a Beyer figure of 109 that one should take with a grain of salt considering that it was the only two-turn dirt race of the day. Nice guess, Beyer boys....though that figure ain't worth the paper it's written on as far as I'm concerned.

In any event, I'm going to say that Rachel Alexandra ran her usual race, and give this colt full credit for the effort. I'm not going to make the same mistake of underestimating him again. In fact, given his record, another Grade 1 win for him, and he could crack that top 1,015 of all time! Whatsmore, given the subsequent achievements of some of the horses who have lost to the filly, I expect a huge effort from him next time, no matter where he runs.

- Here's a clip from the paddock before the race. You may recall that I criticized NYRA when Rachel Alexandra made a truncated trip around the walking ring at Belmont, thus disappointing many of the fans who had been lured to the track specifically to see her. This time, they made a complete extra loop, so as to give all of the many fans assembled around the paddock a chance to see the star of the day. So, nice to see that somebody listens to me!! (Now, if I can only get my wife to do so....)

The Late, Late, Late Pick Three

Drove back home after the races yesterday, though not before stopping at Saratoga Springs State Park for one last BBQ. Lots to say about the Woodward and the rest of the weekend, but there's just one last chance to get even, so let's get to it.

[Well, I spent all this time on these races and writing this post, and now my 9th race single and top selection in the 11th are both scratched. Damn, I'm pissed!!! Well, I'm letting this fly anyway, just because I wrote it, and will weigh in with a revised pick three suggestion at the bottom]

In the 9th, the Glens Falls, Winter View (5-1) looks to bounce back for trainer Jonathan Sheppard after finishing sixth, albeit by 1 1/2 lengths, in the Dick the Delaware. Five-year old daughter of Thunder Gulch was two wide first turn, three wide on the second, and widest of all while circling the field on the final turn for home. I think that the failed to menace comment in the Form understates the threat she seemed to pose rallying down the center of the track. However, it was a fast pace, a 12 second final furlong after a slow pace, into which she was trying to rally and she fell a bit short as mentioned behind winner Caprice (4-1), who saved ground every step of the way. Julien Leparoux, who was aboard for the mare's three prior race, all wins including two graded stakes, is back in the saddle here.

Bubbly Jane (10-1) won an overnight stakes at Belmont in her last, and that race has come back strong - second place Borrowing Base was third by 3/4 in a restricted stakes; third place finisher Belle Allure was a big second here the other day in a similar affair; and 4th place finisher Nehantic Kat won the Yaddo; money prospects. Mushka (7-2) may have a slight class edge and is reunited with Kent; but she's never won in eight tries in turf stakes races and may very well be overbet in this spot.

The 10th is the Grade 1 Hopeful for two-year olds. A reader mentioned recently how it used to be that juveniles already had established form to decipher in stakes races this time of year. But like the once-significant two-year old stakes at Arlington and Monmouth over the weekend, this race mostly qualifies as an entry-level allowance.

But one exception here is Backtalk (5-1), winner of three in a row, including the Sanford here way back in July. Not only did he run by the competition after being extremely wide on the turn, he physically towered over his opponents. Son of Smarty Jones and half-brother to graded winner Bsharpsonata should have no problem with the added ground, and has the tactical speed and a long ways on the backstretch to get good position from the 13 post. Enumerate (6-1) overcame trouble to battle the top choice and finish within a neck; modestly-bred son of Proud Accolade tries to make it three out of four of the weekend's Grade 1 stakes for Asmussen (who used to train Pyro, the 4th one).

After that, it's just a guessing game really with horses coming out of maiden wins and stakes at lesser tracks. Prince Rooney (9-2) beat nothing in the stakes at Mountaineer, but sports a classy Beyer for Asmussen. Dublin (8-1) has the best Beyer of the maiden-breakers; 4th place finisher Discreetly Mine came back to win by six. Overlap (15-1) earned a more modest number in his graduation, but won in a classy manner cruising around the field four wide on the turn; runner-up Fayoum finished second by a neck in his next race. By Chapel Royal, Overlap is a half-brother to the Louisiana Derby winner Kimberlite Pipe.

In the 11th, Senegal (6-1) gets a firm turf course, and his best career effort has come under these conditions. Son of Will's Way got caught three wide in that effort two races back and finished determinedly to get the show spot over Todo K (7-2). The latter turned the tables on a soft course last time, though he failed by a nose after a grueling stretch drive and makes his fifth start in nine weeks. Western Connection (5-1) has been pretty consistent on grass, finishing just behind the aforementioned two in his last two. Johannesbull (3-1) rallied a bit after a slow start in his only try, at Gulfstream in January. That race has come back to be very weak; stand against.

Pick three -

Race 9 - 6
Race 10 - 13 (A)/6/8/10/12
Race 11 - 7 (A)/9

Well, this now goes from a big play to a little fooling around wager. I'm going to single Bubbly Jane in the Glens Falls - just think that the top contenders are all flawed, and that the field is uninspiring. She comes out of a good race and looks like she'll handle the added ground. I'll stick with my Race 10 selection, and go unenthusiastically for the 5 and 9 in the finale, sticking with my intention to oppose the morning line favorite. Good luck and have a great day.

Here I Come, Boys!

Rachel Alexandra, with her game face on, heading to the paddock yesterday with assistant trainer Scott Blasi.

Saratoga Notes

The weather is just Del Mar-spectacular up here....better even, as you don't get the morning cloud layer that you do out there. Blue skies, no humidity, and perfect temperature; NYRA couldn't ask for better. Now, if the people will only show up today. Honestly, it seems rather quiet around here - our hotel in Albany, which does fill up with racegoers on Travers weekends, is empty. And Chez Sophie, where we had a farewell dinner last night (it's closing at the end of the month), was only around three-quarter filled when we arrived for dinner after the races. So hopefully, the masses will descend upon the town this afternoon, but we shall see. A lively crowd of 16,325 for Friday's twilight card, after sparse crowds to start the final week of the meeting.

Took advantage of the late post time and drove up to Lake Moreau for some solid hiking and a swim in the lake. The state park has a myriad of hiking trails for every taste, and is always well worth the short trip to Exit 17 off the Northway.

Lots of action in the trainers race on Friday, as Pletcher jumped out to a two victory lead when his totally dead-on-the-board Interactif (6-1 morning line, $33.60) dominated the With Anticipation in his first try on turf and beyond six furlongs. He's by Broken Vow out of a Broad Brush mare, and has Personal Ensign as his third dam. But Ms. Rice roared back with two winners of her own, and you can forget about that thing about none of her winners paying less than 9-5. Us bettors can be slow sometimes, but we eventually figure things out (at which point the trend is usually about to end). Amazingly, her two first-timers ran 1-2 in the 6th (Gitchee Goomie, $5.40); and dropdown Thoroughly Holy ($4.90) was an easy winner in the 8th. That completed a solid $46.60 double for me after Leamington ($15.40) took the 7th for Graham Motion, finishing the meet strong with a run of 7-3-2-1. (He'll start Bullsbay in the Woodward today.)

Another winner for Mike Hushion, now nine for 24, and six of his last 11! I don't quite know why I didn't have first-timer Lovely Lil ($12.20), live on the board from his 10-1 morning line. Sometimes things just seem too obvious. This NY-bred two-year old daughter of Tiznow is one to keep an eye on after a very impressive win, bounding down the lane with aplomb to a winning time of 1:03 3/5, and a Beyer of 81.

Great stretch drive in the 9th, as Tobruk ($15.20) and Here Comes Art went at it nose to nose in a smashing 12 second final furlong at the end of the mile and three-eighths turf marathon. You just don't see them finish like that at this level on the dirt when they go that far....which is why they shouldn't bother even writing those races.

And after the 9th, I fell victim to one of the oldest and most anachronistic rules in the book. I liked the late double at Arlington, but right in the middle of making the bet, the self-service machine just cut off. Other would-be bettors around me suffered the same experience. I looked at the clock, saw it had just turned 7 PM; and then I remembered that, by state law, NYRA cannot accept any bets on-track after that time. Someone's gotta change that law for when the racino finally opens, don't they? No harm done, though just barely as the horses I wanted to bet ran 2nd and 1st; but another reminder of how the racing laws in the state have helped to hold NYRA back for decades.

Who's Number 768?

We were driving up the Taconic on Thursday, and happened upon WPDH, 101.5-FM in Poughkeepsie. And like many classic rock stations like to do on Labor Day weekend, they were counting down the greatest songs of all time; in this case starting at #1015 in honor of its frequency. I find it a rather silly ritual, always ending up as they do with the usual suspects in the top ten.

More interesting to me is to hear what they pick at the lower end of the spectrum. That's when you're likely to hear a somewhat forgotten gem which you may not have heard in years. It's kinda silly though; I mean, how do you decide which song is 768 or 767? And who exactly is making that call?

Nonetheless, things were going really well at first. At #768, I'd Love to Change the World, by Ten Years After, has some homophobic lyrics, but the usual great lead guitar work by Alvin Lee. Long Distance Runaround, by Yes, followed at #767, and they even let it run into Fish (Schindleria Praematurus); a nice bonus there. After that came Story In Your Eyes by the Moody Blues, which is a great song, though the album which it's from, Every Good Boy Deserves Favor, wasn't nearly as good as To Our Children's Children's Children. They're actually on tour to mark their 45th anniversary. They played in NY, but I just don't do the fossil rock thing. They were one of my favorite bands at one time, but I couldn't imagine going to see them now under most circumstances.

But the best-of list started to go downhill at this point, especially once we got into the 750's. Van Halen, Aerosmith, Pearl Jam. I just never, ever got into those bands, perhaps because of an extended progressive jazz phase commencing in the mid-70's. (Though I must say that I liked the Pearl Jam song, Alive, and would consider revisiting them if you can suggest an album.) There was an awful instrumental by Pink Floyd, another band which never caught my fancy - I've never even owned a single copy of Dark Side of the Moon - and that really bad Led Zeppelin song with the calypso break.

Then, it got outright sadistic - Scorpions segueing into Bob Seger, perhaps the most mediocre rocker of all time. Jeez, were they trying to kill me? Could My Love Does It Good or Billy Joel be far off? Welcome relief came with the Beatles' Helter Skelter, but then of course, in the vicinity of Defreetsville on Route 9, the station faded away, thanks for that.

Similarly, I know people like to propose top ten lists of the greatest horses of all time, an endeavor I find particularly fruitless considering that I wasn't around to see the best horses of the past. So who am I to rank the horses I've seen with Kelso or Native Dancer or even Secretariat (I was around, but too busy going to the trotters or listening to Moody Blues albums.) I'm just not a big list guy I guess; probably related to my aversion to award shows, some deep psychological scar perhaps.

I don't know if even Illman or Plonk are wonky enough to list their top 1,015 horses. But like with the music, it might be fun to consider the horses vying for, say, that coveted #768 spot. Has to be horses with some measure of accomplishment; but not too much. Maybe a horse like Any Given Saturday. Or Bandini. Roses In May, Flower Alley, Wonder Lady Anne L, or Henny Hughes.

It's a silly exercise, I know, just like with the songs. But, as I occasionally like to do here, it does has a semi-serious point. Other than Rachel Alexandra, none of the entrants for Saturday's Woodward would even be faintly considered for the top 1,015; not even close. Even Einstein, considered by some to be the best male handicap horse, and purchased yesterday by Frank Stronach, wouldn't crack that list in my opinion. I think that helps to put this race in perspective. The filly, clearly On The Threshold of a Dream, has probably already cracked the top 150 (even the champion Curlin is only at around #238 in my view), and, with people speculating that she could be the best filly ever, we're looking at possible Top Ten material. If she is just half of what we think she might be, this race should just be an easy walk in the park. Jess Jackson's claim that this race will help put her in historical perspective is empty and specious considering that, barring some dramatic improvement in form, these names will all be forgotten in just a few years and thereafter to Our Children's Children's Children, never to appear on any lists on Labor or any other Day. There may be only one horse currently in training, in this country anyway, high enough on the list to provide any historical context for Rachel Alexandra. Unfortunately, she's racing out in California; so Go Now, Mr. Jackson, and take thee to the Breeders' Cup after the filly takes care of business tomorrow.

Not As Easy As It Looked?

Pursuant to the last post, I just want to make clear that I hope I'm wrong about the crowd. NYRA's marketing department is doing everything they can, and deserve a break after a tough one with the weather last week. And, I'll put my money where my mouth is, and contribute to the attendance tally by paying the three bucks admission rather than using my owner's pass (if I'm still in a good mood)(and why wouldn't I be, walking into Saratoga on a beautiful Saturday afternoon!?).

But though you guys make some good points about the lack of buzz about Curlin and his not having beaten any horses to that point with the prestige of a Kentucky Derby winner (and, in fact, having run twice in Dubai. Do you think that Jackson will go after the bucks and send Rachel Alexandra out there too?), I agree with this commenter regarding the ways in which Labor Day weekend is not conducive to a big crowd at the upstate track. But I'd be happy to eat crow (and the three bucks) on this one.

I read some smart guys today seriously discuss betting against her, and Haskin proposes one of his typical mythical "I don't really mean it" cases against. And I have to say that, in retrospect after the running of the Travers, I'm no longer thinking so much about this being such an easier spot like I was before. There are a couple that I think could run well, though not, as I'll discuss below, the horses considered by the morning line-maker to be the top challengers.

But when I went back to watch the Haskell, I got the same impression of Borel and his filly simply toying with that field that I did watching the race live. Four wide on the first turn, they pressed Munnings through six furlongs in 1:09 4/5, a full second and a half faster than any other two turn race that day; and still, Borel was the picture of confidence, if not outright cockiness, cruising merrily along while a full three wide on the final turn before skipping away from Summer Bird, who saved ground all the way (on a rail which seemed to be fine towards the end of the card), and came back to dominate the Travers with a 110 Beyer. (That despite running the final half mile in 51.70; this was a race that fell apart pretty badly it seems, thus my change of heart about its quality relative to the Woodward.)

So, even though those three-year colts she's been beating just ain't that much, the way she dispatched them means that I just don't see her getting beat here. Getting back to the competition, Bullsbay is the 6-1 morning line second choice (Rachel Alexandra is 1-2 if you haven't seen). I think he's a horse that just caught lightning in a bottle with an absolutely dream trip in the Whitney; and I find it hard to believe that this five year old, who doesn't have a layoff line since a year ago today, would suddenly run a career best (by seven points) 107 Beyer. (Not that the fig wasn't the fig, but more that the horse just had a really good day.) I also don't care for third choice Macho Again (8=1), on the grounds that I don't think he's that good; and ditto Cool Coal Man (12-1).

More interesting to me would be Past the Point, at 15-1, surprisingly, to me, the longest shot in the field. This horse has never been close to the same, especially in the speed figure category, since his wrenching second to Curlin in this race last year. However, his comeback race at seven furlongs earlier in the meet was solid, and he certainly seems to love this track. (Note that though the Form shows trainer Eoin Harty as being 15% sprint to route, he's 1 for 25 in the category over the last 12 months.) And It's A Bird (10-1) has won his last three two turn races on fast tracks, all with 107 Beyers. He has the same running style as Rachel Alexandra, so we could see early on if he has what it takes. My feeling is that he won't, and neither will anyone else; maybe these two can spice up some exotics which will really need some spicing up! And I must admit that, though I still think her owner is being a jerk about the Breeders Cup, I'm not rooting against her anymore, OK? (At least in this race.)

- On Wednesday, Bonavento (Speightstown) ($13.40) was the 4th debut winner for the Toddster (from 28 starters), and 16th overall thus keeping pace with Linda Rice, who has started less than half as many starters. Pletcher's first-time winners have paid off well at odds of 5-2, 5-1, and 6-1; and he has three close second (within a length) at odds of 4-1, 6-1, and 11-1. Certainly wasn't like that here a few years ago.

For Linda Rice (Canadian Ballet, $7.20), it was her 16th winner from 48 starters, an even 33%. I've seen Andy Serling tweet tweet about how overbet her horses are, and indeed, she's had many starters in that category, especially some first timers in the last week. However, none of her winners have been less than 9-5, and she had enough price horses earlier in the meet to give her an impressive ROI of $3.61 and an average win payoff of $10.80 (coming into Wednesday).

I'll Take The Under

I'm told by a reliable source up in Saratoga that the over/under on the attendance for Rachel Alexandra's appearance in the Woodward on Saturday is 35,000. I think that's high; 30,000 seems more like it to me. Last year, NYRA was able to attract only 22,572 for Curlin's appearance in the same race despite an all-out publicity effort. Do you think they'll be able to draw some 13,000 more this time? (Of course, I'm talking about actual attendees, not the full-of-baloney crowd figure announced for the Mother Goose, inflated by at least 25% in my humble but highly experienced opinion.)

Granted, my source and I agreed that Rachel Alexandra is probably a bigger draw than Curlin was....a notion which, if true, is, in my opinion and with no disrespect intended to the filly and her followers, a pretty pitiful reflection on the efforts of this industry to promote its biggest event and showcase award...the one we debate and argue over throughout most of the year. After all, if that is indeed the case, it basically means that the Breeders Cup Classic and Horse of the Year award don't really add up to jack shit when it comes to the public consciousness. Preakness + Haskell trumps BC Classic + Horse of the Year? That shouldn't be, regardless of the spectacular nature of her victories, and despite the fact that she's a filly beating boys.

Still, the Saratoga meet as a vacation destination basically ends after the Travers in my view, as evidenced by past Labor Day weekend crowds, and reinforced in part by the sparse crowd under perfect weather conditions this past Monday. I believe that it would take a mammoth event to draw fans back up there on the last weekend. We already had plans to go because we've come to enjoy this time there - the crowds are thinner, I find that the fields are generally full, and the weather tends to be better (the forecast is glorious and probably even a bit unseasonably warm). And the Final Stretch Music Festival in town is awesome. Almost a reason in itself to come. (And note that its hours have been moved back to 7 - 11 PM this year.)

But no way I'd make the trip specifically to see this race. Are any of you? In a far, far more perfect world, perhaps she'd be facing opponents like Big Brown and/or Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin himself. Then, I'd be up there in a heartbeat....as would I'd guess some 50,000 other people. But to see her face this field? NYRA is certainly pulling out all the stops. But as I said last year, you can't market in a vacuum. And this is basically the main problem that dogs this industry - the early retirement of its stars, and the complete lack of any sustained rivalries.

So, NYRA can tout the historic nature of the filly's probable victory in this race; Jess Jackson can bluster about finding her place in history; Steve Asmussen can tell us with a straight face that she'll need to be at her best. Perhaps she is the greatest filly of all time as some are saying. Too bad she won't be able to prove it on the track....at least not this week, or this year as long as Jess Jackson selfishly and vindictively gets his "revenge" on those of us who "forced" him to run Curlin in the synthetic Classic. And you never know how a filly will come back at four after some time off, so you can't take it for granted that she'll be the wonderfilly she is now in 2010.

Oh, and my attendance prediction? 28,743. (That's actual people through the turnstiles, not a tally by vote counters from Iran or Afghanistan.)

As Easy As Bank-Rupt-Cy

I'm reading about this bankruptcy deal for New York City OTB....

The move will allow OTB officials to sharply reduce staffing at the money-losing bookmaker and break at least some of the leases now in place for the operation of underused OTB parlors, according to the sources.

The bankruptcy will also permit OTB to break its existing contract with District Council 37, the large public employees union, and begin using state-of-the-art remote and automated betting systems that require little, if any, supervision. [NY Post]

....and I'm thinking.....that's all it took to finally bring about the kind of changes, as painful as those affecting employment may be, that we've all known for years are long overdue (and which OTB officials fought tooth and nail in Comptroller Tom DiNapoli's recent report)? Just a little bankruptcy filing? Why didn't someone think of this sooner?

Bloomberg reports that this will be a Chapter 9 filing for Municipal Bankruptcy.

The filing, the first involving a New York State-run gambling operation, won’t halt operations. It will include the planned sale of $250 million of bonds to repay some accumulated debts and allow spending on new technology, said Meyer Frucher, whom Paterson appointed to develop a rescue plan.

With updated technology, “We could go head to head with pornography and win,” Frucher said, referring to possibilities such as an around-the-clock horse-racing channel or virtual racing. [Bloomberg]

Hmmmm.....porn or the 8th at Flemington.... I know which one Handride would pick.

Frucher used the strategy of investing in new technology as CEO of a struggling Philadelphia Stock Exchange around the turn of the century, and ended up selling the exchange to NASDAQ for over $650 million in 2007. So he does have some experience with this sort of situation. He also seems to get it. When's the last time you heard an OTB chairman say things like: "Other states have them working together....Here we have a system that competes with itself. It was bad from the start." [Thoroughbred Times]

"There is no reason, candidly, to have seven totes, more than seven totes. Every track has its own tote. Every OTB has its own...it’s done seven times and it has to be done identical."

"It really comes down to a bit of redundancy. I mean, how many presidents of OTBs do you want to pay for?" [Daily Politics]

One thing that I think you can bet will be going is that fleet of cars which was a subject of DiNapoli's report. The New York Times reports today that the costs of maintaining that fleet has cost OTB far more than just the gasoline.

Part of OTB’s payroll reads more Nascar than Triple Crown. It has employed three automotive mechanics, seven drivers and a motor vehicle supervisor, who, combined, earned $500,000 a year. In addition to those salaries, the state comptroller found that gas, insurance and outside repairs cost $585,000 a year.

Though much of its fleet has aged, OTB bought four new Ford Explorers in 2007. One went to its in-house lobbyist. That came as OTB hired Park Strategies, a lobbying firm founded by former Senator Alfonse M. D’Amato, under a no-bid contract for $12,000 a month, a move also criticized by the comptroller. [New York Times]

Haves and Have-Nots

The only complaints I've read from Florida parimutuels about the new compact agreed to by Governor Charlie Crist (capping a busy few days for the Senate-minded chief executive) and the Seminole tribe (subject to approval by the legislature) are from the ones outside of Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Those fortunate operators located inside of those two counties, where slots were approved by referendum, are apparently satisfied with the prospect of a reduced tax rate (35% from 50%) and high stakes poker (limit raised from $5 to $50) conducted around the clock on weekends. (I can't imagine that there's too much levity around the poker table at 7:15 on Sunday morning. Actually, it sounds fairly grim.)

Whatsmore, those lucky seven (plus Hialeah) are not even completely prohibited from having table games of their own. They'd have to convince lawmakers however that the revenue such games would exceed the penalty clause in the compact. That provision would allow the Seminoles to reduce their percentage-based payments by half the amount of any year-to-year decline in its Broward County revenues. Seems like something the tracks may be able to work with perhaps?

But the various dog tracks located outside those counties, as well as Tampa Bay Downs, are pretty much screwed. Not only did the tribe get table games in all seven of their statewide locations, slots at these tracks would be essentially prohibited considering that, under the agreement, the Seminoles wouldn't have to make any payments at all should they be installed there. These non-Broward/Miami facilities would get the poker and a relatively token amount (300) of "historic racing games" and electronic bingo, whoppee, but that seems small consolation. Here's a typical reaction:

Isadore Havenick, vice president of Southwest Florida Enterprises, parent company of Flagler Dog Track and Naples-Fort Myers Greyhound Track, said Crist's new deal "goes far beyond the limited gaming expansion the Legislature strived for during the 2009 legislative session, and instead doubles the banked card game casinos in Florida." He said the compact "ends competition in Florida's gaming marketplace" by giving the tribe exclusive rights to casino gaming outside of Miami-Dade and Broward counties and that local governments "will lose hundreds of millions of dollars" if it is approved. [News-press.com]

Members of the Florida legislature, particularly in the more anti-gambling House, may not be happy with the compact either, particularly with the expansion of the Seminoles' table games. A proposal from the legislature earlier in the year limited them to three; two in Broward and one in Tampa. Governor Crist acknowledged that he didn't get the deal he wanted. "I think that we've gotten them as close as we can to the parameters that they set out.." [Tampa Bay Online]

Of course, in all fairness to the governor of the Sunshine State, it can't be easy to negotiate with an adversary which, under the auspices and blessings of the federal government, is empowered to act with near impunity. The Seminoles could operate slots and not pay the state a dime if it wanted to. And the state has been powerless to stop the tribe from operating blackjack games that are prohibited under state law. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who fought for months to shut the games down, now concedes: "..we have no way to enforce that. It can only be enforced by the federal government." So Crist is probably relieved to get a 50% increase, to $150 million a year, in guaranteed payments, plus a progressive cut of the action which starts at 12% and goes as high as 25%.

Under the compact, the state is expected to pick up its first $150 million on Dec. 1 and repeat that amount a year later. The annual contribution will grow to $183 million by 2012, according to estimates provided by Crist, and go as high as $501.9 million by Dec. 1, 2029.

“The Seminole Tribe receives the exclusivity of certain gaming that it deserves,” Crist said in a letter to Mitchell Cypress, chairman of the Seminole Tribe. [Biz Journals]

Of course, the racetracks might argue that they're at least as deserving, given its long history of providing jobs and revenue for the state (not to mention some pretty great racing). At least the compact specifies as excluded from the tribe's exclusivity: The operation of Pari-Mutuel Wagering Activities at pari-mutuel facilities licensed by the State of Florida. The way the table is tilted against them, the tracks should probably be grateful for that.

LATG is Old

Hi, Patrick again (handride) just posting a message while the boss ain't lookin. I finally got Alan on feedburner, I think he's had about 4 other feedburner addresses, but like his car keys he can't find them. The new address is here: Why switch? What's good about this address is that if you use Google Reader and maybe some other applications it should update within minutes of his posting. This feed has pingshot enabled, so it's a bit faster if you use the right app. And while I'm here, I should let you all know you can find the LATG feed along with 140+ other blogs at TBAblogs.com. I'm working on making that real time over the next couple months, but for now it still has the blogs, news, free past performance search, and Twitter (don't ask Alan about Twitter it scares him more than the first time he heard about the combustion engine).

Ok back to Alan for more handicapping that finishes last and updates about the NY Senate (good bedtime reading)

;-D

Lousy Race on a Crummy Day

Thanks to NYRA and Hank Goldberg for saving me some money on Saturday. NYRA's internet wagering was down for at least the 10th and 11th races; an inopportune time for such a failure to be sure. For NYRA anyway, but not for me as it turned out in this case. I'd sure be singing a different tune though had I been deprived of a winner. I called the phone number on my NYRA Rewards card, but the operator told me that I needed a different password than what I use online and at the track. If I would have won, I might have suggested that some quick thinker should have come up with a temporary solution for this situation, as it was clear from the exasperated tone of the person I reached that mine was not the first such request....but I'll instead say no harm, no foul in this case.

When the system came back up for the Travers, I bet a few late doubles; but when Hank Goldberg picked Charitable Man, I snapped out of it and refrained from using him. So, thanks for that, Hank.

I was stunned by the stat that Randy Moss brought up shortly before post time - that 29 out of 58 Belmont Stakes winners who have run in the Travers ended up winning it (now 30 of 59). That runs directly counter to my usual notion that the Belmont, at its mile and a half distance, is an outlier which has little implication with respect to races at our standard distances. Have to rethink that, at least in terms of this race.

Summer Bird earned a career high Beyer of 110, continuing a solid pattern of improvement in that regard. Still, though he's moved forward in each of his races since the Belmont, he's raced twice on a sloppy track; that could be reason enough to try and beat him next time if the track is fast (or synthetic)...possibly in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I dunno, I remain unenthusiastic about this horse for some reason. Though I did use him in the Travers, it was more by process of elimination in terms of who I figured would still be running if and when the race fell apart. Which it did. Summer Bird ran the final quarter in a pokey 26.22 seconds and still won for fun.

The Travers was a pretty bad race, at least besides the effort of the winner. Longshot Hold Me Back lagged behind early and picked up the pieces passing exhausted horses in the stretch; tab him to bet against at underlaid odds next time out. It was all fitting I suppose for a crummy weather day and the resulting lousy crowd - the smallest in 30 years, when General Assembly splashed home in 1979. Jeez, I was there that day, 30 years? I seem to remember a steady rain throughout that day which I don't think was the case on Saturday. Given NYRA's optimistic attendance forecast, I'm a bit surprised that the crowd was that small even given the weather. The good news is that the long range forecast is favorable straight through next weekend for the appearances of Rachel Alexandra and, far more importantly, the Head Chef and I.

Quality Road came out of the race "excellent" according to Pletcher. Kensei was stone cold dead on the board at 4-1 and finished 25 lengths behind, ugh.

Joe Tessitore was unbelievably annoying with his pre-race dramatics and shrill, contrived post-race exhilaration as he continues to morph into Todd Schrupp...or vice versa. Maybe ESPN should replace him with Steve Phillips - he seems to be on everything else on the network these days. And I was a bit surprised at all of the anti-Jess Jackson commentary going on during the broadcast. Jackson was getting bashed for not running Rachel Alexandra in the Travers, and instead taking the easier route next week instead. (Of course, this is when we still thought that Quality Road might be great....which he still might be, though certainly not in this race.) Personally, I have no problem with this particular decision by Jackson; it's the Breeders' Cup thing where I think he's selfish and dead wrong. The three-year old colts had two chances to dispatch the filly, and I don't see anything wrong with picking an easier spot (though I could do without the whining over the purse), especially with Kensei to consider as well.

Man, I was glad that Vineyard Haven came down. Besides the fact that he deserved it, I just find myself rooting against all of the Sheikh-connected horses. I just don't like them....the humans and even the horses themselves, faultless as they may be for their situation. Sometimes I allow that dislike to cloud my wagering judgment, as in the case of Music Note. In retrospect, if I was (successfully) opposing Indian Blessing as I did, I really had to use Music Note in addition to Informed Decision (whose ride I did not understand at all). Had I not already been eliminated from the Pick Four due to Rutherienne's bare defeat by Salve Germania (now in the care of the Toddster), I'd be bashing myself for that since I did have the last two legs correct.

Short and Sweet

I think it took me around 20 minutes on the subway to plan my strategy for that big late Pick Four at Saratoga today. I'm not bragging; just that the races aren't that complicated, and many of the horses are familiar. Besides, as I once read in a handicapping book, I can't remember which one, it should only take an experienced horseplayer, like us, a few minutes to identify the contenders in a race. (At least, I would add, in races in which the horses have form from which one can put them in context with each other. A race with a ton of first-time starters which may require, depending on your preferences, looking up stats pertaining to the trainer and sire (not to mention delving deeper into the pedigree via sites like Pedigree Query) is a different story.) And since I'm just looking for contenders for the win spot when I'm handicapping a pick four, it doesn't take that long if I find the pickens to be slim as in this case.

These four races, which have just 29 betting entities total, can be narrowed down sufficiently enough, in my opinion anyway, to make the wager affordable to low and moderately bankrolled players. I'd never call picking four winners in a row easy, but this one is at least easy to bet. So while it might not qualify as what we would generally consider to be an ideal pick four - one with wide open races and the potential for a lucrative score - I think this sequence is ideal for a day like this. Hopefully the rain will stop, but it should be a big crowd nonetheless, and no doubt many bettors will get be able to get sensibly involved in this pool. NYRA certainly hopes so with their $1 million guarantee.

So, here it is, and this is going to be short and sweet. In a sequence like this, I'll try and crush the bet with as few horses as possible since I don't find spreading to be necessary.

The weather is a problem of course, especially with four grass races scheduled in the first eight. (As of now however, only races 1,5, and 13 are off the grass.) It's a particular problem for my pick four because I like Rutherienne as a single in the Ballston Spa; however, her distaste for soft courses is well-known. I know she hasn't won much of late, but she always runs well, and this is her favorite distance. She comes off her troubled third in the Diana (yes, she'd saved ground to that point, but figures to do so again from the rail), and is, in my opinion, simply the fastest, classiest, and best horse in this field. If she scratches (or if the turf seems particularly boggy and she somehow stays is), I'm not really sure what to do, as I'm standing against Cocoa Beach here in any event. Her Matriarch win aside, I don't believe she's proven herself to be top quality on grass, especially with her narrow win over moderate competition in the restricted De La Rose. Perhaps I'd use Closeout, who has shown an affinity for soft going. But the rain has stopped, the radar indicates that the worst weather should remain east, so I'm hoping for the best.

In the 10th, the Ballerina, I'm against Indian Blessing. Just a feeling based on the way her speed figures have dropped off precipitously since her Test win here last year....not to mention her sluggish 4th in her first race since Dubai, an ominous sign indeed. Informed Decision may indeed prefer synthetics, but she's five-for-five at the distance, two-for-two at the distance on dirt, one of those in the slop. Another single here.

In the 11th, the Kings Bishop, Munnings returns to his best distance, and if he's not feeling too emasculated after getting his butt whipped by a girl, he should be the best in here. But with flexibility having nailed the first two with singles (he hopes) I'll also use Capt. Candyman Can, also expert at this route, Big Drama, who I'd love to leave out but can't, and Despite the Odds, who seems to love off going (a 471 Tomlinson and a career best effort in the slop around one turn at Belmont). I couldn't be anymore against the Darley entry if they were running on the GOP ticket for governor of New York. (I often get myself in trouble when I single out a horse for ridicule in this manner.)

And in the Travers, I'm against Quality Road. Too many questions for this colt as the favorite here. Unproven at the distance to start with and cursed with faulty feet, I just can't see him as the choice here coming off a single prep at such a shorter distance as he has; and I'm hoping he attracts mucho support off those gaudy Beyers. I'm a little queasy about Kensei's distance prospect as well, but I can't leave him out; and not that thrilled about Summer Bird either. But someone has to win, and the Belmont winner should at least be around at the wire if the race falls apart. I was disappointed that Kool-Aid horse Charitable Man didn't opt for the Pennsylvania Derby where we could have bet against him at 3-5. But in this spot, at his morning line of 6-1 or higher, it's a whole different story in my mind. He was three wide both turns in the Jim Dandy and got blindswitched wide and otherwise bothered by Convocation on the backstretch; but still came home fastest of all, in 12.31, and posted a career best Beyer which indicates improvement ahead. Two bullet works, and I love the switch to Ramon. So I'll use him, and I think he's worth a win bet....if he really is 6-1 or higher at post time.

So the ticket is 1 / 2 / 2-3-5-8 / 2-6-7 $12 for a buck.

- I mentioned Pat Kelly yesterday, and you know something's gotta be brewing if that POS Naughty New Yorker ran a close second on Friday. And don't give me that 'oh, how can you attack Naughty New Yorker stuff.' Nice to see he's now exceeded a million bucks in earnings. But he'd lost his last three races, in state-bred company, by a combined 55 lengths.

That's my problem with following trainers; as much as I got hepped up on Kelly's recent close calls, sometimes, as in this case, I just can't past the horse. (Kelly has a couple entered in the 13th, which has been taken off the grass.) Another example on Friday was Grasberg. I've been following Hushion, but this horse had never run on dirt nor less than a mile; so how could you make a case for him at seven furlongs on the main? Especially at 7-2?

Saratoga Notes

In the second at Saratoga on Friday, She's a Ketch (8-1) makes her debut, on the grass, for trainer Chad Brown. This barn sent out Zodiac Girl ($16) to win her debut on the lawn on Wednesday (a 75K maiden claimer). Brown has sent out two other debut runners on the grass at the Spa; War Hoot was third by two lengths after a troubled start at 12-1, and Eto'o was third by seven at 23-1. (And one of the trainer's other three winners at the meet was first timer Kid Kate [$11.20]).

She's a Ketch is a three-year old daughter of Silver Clipper, a Silver Deputy mare whose only win in 16 starts came on the grass and whose half-sister May Night (Gulch) won the PG Johnson Stakes on the grass here at two. Some awesome workouts and Lezcano wins at 30% for this outfit.

Upper Gulch (4-1) goes for trainer Pat Kelly, looking for his first winner of the meeting (from 16 starters). But the last three horses that he's sent out were Pynaformer, a troubled, wide third by 2 1/2 at 14-1; Lyrical Bobcat, a fast closing second by 1 1/4 at 9-1; and Joey's Chance, second by a neck at 11-1 to City Sneakers ($11.40) from the unconscious Linda Rice (14 for 36, 39%). Kelly always seems to pop a winner or two at the meet; he's never been shut out going back to at least 2004, and his median payoff is $18.20. So I'd look for him to maybe pop one or two before we're done here....but not with this one (an 0-for-14 maiden).

Ostensibly (15-1) makes her debut for Roy Lerman, two for four on the meet (three for 34 with first-timers over the last five years). She's by grass champion Cozzene, out of Supposedly (Polish Numbers), who earned over $100K on the turf (13-4-5-1). This is the direct distaff family of the two-time Arc winner Alleged (Princess Pout, the dam of Alleged is the third dam of Ostensibly).

Shine Softly (3-1) is, at least to me, an inexplicable morning line favorite making her first start since running third on the dirt at Saratoga last year.

- Another horrible well-bet juvenile first-timer for McLaughlin, as Cableknit, a $1.7 million daughter of Unbridled's Song, was a futile 5th on Thursday at 6-5! His debut babies are worse value than dinner at [fill in your favorite overpriced Saratoga restaurant]. J Z's Revenge ($17.40), a $6,000 daughter of Act of Duty (Mr. Prospector), won for Zayat and Steve Asmussen.

Another long-priced winner for Jimmy Ferraro with Straight Romance ($32.40); and his first-timer S.Z. Madison was giant to rally for second after a horrible start at odds of 18-1.

Your Weather

Weather will remain the same
- Your Weather - Dinosaur Jr.

Weather has always been a major bugaboo to conducting a race meeting amongst the mountains in upstate New York in August....and the forecast frankly sucks for the Travers on Saturday. Not too many years that you don't eventually pay the piper when the weather is good over a significant stretch up there. There's no one living beyond the hands of fate. And, if that forecast proves to be accurate, that would be a shame for NYRA, the horsemen, and all of the fans set to make the trip this weekend. I remember when Harvey Pack used to do his thing at the Spa before the races, and when it was a rainy day, he would open his show by informing his on-track audience in no uncertain terms: "You're not going to have a good time today." I imagine that NYRA didn't much care for that, but he was basically telling the truth.

Downstate here, we're sweating over Tropical Storm Danny, predicted to take a path up the east coast, though how close to land is not known at this time. The Head Chef (and I told you about her blog, yes?) is supposed to cater an outdoor party for 100 people out near the tip of Eastern Long Island on Saturday evening. That's not good! And, by virtue of that event, if it doesn't get canceled, I'm freed up to travel down to Monmouth for Travers day, where I can learn about handicapping (and setting the clock on the VCR) from Handride. So, a lot riding on the weather for all of us, though most importantly of course for those who could be really seriously affected by a big storm. So let's just hope for the best all around.

- Tom Precious reports for Bloodhorse.com that there are no guarantees a decision will be made soon on the Aqueduct racino.

Though bidders were originally told to expect a decision by Aug. 1, it could be a couple more weeks before a developer is tapped, Gov. David Paterson told reporters.

But even that sketchy timetable is based entirely on the assumption that the Democratic leaders of the two legislative houses will agree with the Democratic governor on an operator to run the facility for the next few decades. Given the not-always-so-warm relations between Paterson and the two leaders -- Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate President Malcolm Smith -- such a timetable for action could end up being optimistic. [Bloodhorse]

Based on this, the new target for Labor Day seems unrealistic. Breeders Cup day perhaps?

An anonymous reader doubts that any of the bidders with interests in other states will really be in compliance with this clause from the MOU.

"Vendor shall not utilize the VLT Facility in any way to attract patrons to other gaming facilities, whether through transportation arrangements, discount programs, or other services or attractions. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, Vendor shall enter into a comprehensive confidentiality agreement with State which prohibits use of the VLT facility gaming customer database for any purpose other than the advertisement, marketing and promotion of VLT gaming at Aqueduct, in order to prevent the diversion of VLT Facility patrons to other gaming venues. Furthermore, Vendor and its member companies and affiliates shall not advertise, market or promote competitive gaming in the New York City metropolitan area."

While one would be wary of Steve Wynn and the Don Peebles/MGM group with respect to this clause, the cross-marketing program proposed by Aqueduct Gaming for its new partner Harrah's would seem particularly dubious. So, is it just a coincidence that the MOU has become conspicuously absent from the governor's website? The original link leads to this; and a search of the site as a whole was fruitless. That's kinda odd, isn't it?

No Lobbyist, No Problem (?)

As a reader pointed out, Jim Odato wrote on the Capitol Confidential blog of a fundraiser for Governor Paterson scheduled for Friday which will be hosted by the Albany lobbying/law firm of Featherstonhaugh, Wiley and Clyne.

Featherstonhaugh is an owner of Saratoga Racing and Gaming, the nearby harness track and video slots house once managed by Delaware North. He is a minor partner in Aqueduct Gaming LLC, which is a Delaware North-led partnership bidding for the rights to open a large video lottery terminal center at Aqueduct Race Track in Queens.

Paterson is expected to make a decision on the winning bidder among six competiting groups by the end of the Saratoga thoroughbred meet on Labor Day.

Of course, most of you know that last bit about Paterson's upcoming selection, but I left it in for effect. I guess it says something that the post drew little response; we just expect this kind of stuff in Albany I guess. But while this guy might just be a minor player, a fundraiser like this has gotta feel like a golden lifeline for this beleaguered governor right about now.

I feel bad for Paterson, and I was embarrassed for him after reading of his ill-advised remarks on race over the weekend. Now, he's trying to backtrack on the comments (after previously largely standing behind them) after being rebuked by, amongst others, a black former NYC mayor and a black current US president...and that's embarrassing too. I think he's a decent guy who was thrust into an impossible situation, but he's surely not helping himself now.

Maybe though he's just resigned to his fate; I've started to read reports that he's confided to friends that he won't run for re-election. He certainly sounded like someone who doesn't think very highly of his own political future.

Odato also reported that Penn National has hired a lobbyist; this after it increased its upfront offer by 5000%, from a token $5 million to a very serious $250 million.

The move leaves only the Don Peebles/MGM team not following the Albany model of using a lobbying firm in the procurement competition. Peebles is making use of his Peebles Corp. PR department however. He says he probably couldn’t find a lobbyist that isn’t already hired if he wanted one.

“I don’t see a need for a lobbyist,” he said. “This is a deal based on merit and overall community benefit.” [Capitol Confidential]

That's gotta be one of the funniest quotes I've read in almost five years of writing this thing. I think we can safely count this guy out.

No Filly, No Problem

I'm hoping that, perhaps by the time you're reading this, Mine That Bird has been declared into the Travers after his five furlong work on Tuesday. [UPDATE: Damn.] I'm sure that NYRA officials are watching nervously, because it's a pretty big deal I think when the Derby winner runs in your signature race of the meet. Me, I just wanna bet against him. He worked well and scoped clean afterwards, so let's just hope for the best

My first reaction to the announcement that Rachel Alexandra will run in the Woodward was that the Travers could be overshadowed to an extent. But upon further review and thought, the Travers stands pretty well on its own with a talented and competitive field this year, and probably does so just on its tradition in any event. NYRA is expecting a crowd of 50,000; that would be a 25% increase over the 40,723 last year. With Mine That Bird in, it's an unusually definitive matchup of the best three-year old colts in the country, at any point in the season nowadays. And while it might not feature the best overall three-year old....it might. Quality Road has shown freak potential with three 110+ Beyers in a row, and certainly could be any kind if his feet hold together.

Between the potential of Quality Road and the extra distance of the Travers (actually one of the reasons I'll be opposing him as well), there's no doubt in my mind that owner Jess Jackson has picked the easier spot. Looking at some of Rachel Alexandra's possible opponents - Bullsbay, Macho Again? Asiatic Boy and Cool Coal Man? DA'TARA?? She'll kill these horses, are you kidding me? And she gets weight too. I might not like her owner, but I'm not an idiot. She won for fun with a 116 Beyer after pressing a fast pace in the Travers Haskell...none of these guys have a performance even close to that. This promises to be a historic tour de force, so who at the NTRA is working on getting it televised?

All Wynn All Of The Time

Aqueduct Gaming, the Delaware North-led group bidding for the racino, announced the addition of Harrah's to its team. Besides adding an established name in the casino industry, it comes with a built-in marketing angle.

With the agreement, Harrah's Total Rewards(R) player loyalty program will be available to customers of the planned Aqueduct casino. Harrah's Total Rewards is the largest casino customer loyalty marketing program in the world and includes several million participants who live within 100 miles of Aqueduct.
.....
[Delaware North president William] Bissett said Aqueduct Gaming estimates that adding the Harrah's brand and Total Rewards program will produce an additional 10 percent in tax revenue for New York State over the previous estimate. [Aqueduct Gaming press release]

Harrah's owns the Chester Downs racetrack/racino in Pennsylvania. It's also the owner of the World Series of Poker, which I suppose presents some interesting synergy potential.

Bissett made sure to dispel any notion however that the presence of Harrah's means his bid is going Las Vegas at a time when Aqueduct Entertainment is using the city as a buzzword against Steve Wynn.

"Queens residents clearly don't want overdone Las Vegas-style development that would clash with the neighborhoods around the venue....We will develop and operate a casino that fits perfectly in a New York community, has world-class amenities and an internationally renowned gaming brand, Harrah's, helping it thrive."

The press release reiterates the notion that any plans to build a hotel or entertainment center will be "based on community input."

As for Wynn, Jim Odato reported in the Times Union on Monday that he has engaged some high-profile lobbyists as he mounts a full court press.

Steve Wynn, the Las Vegas casino creator extraordinaire, has tapped the lobbying firm led by Jerry Weiss, a former aide to Gov. Mario M. Cuomo. The firm also includes Lou Tomson, a close ally of Gov. George Pataki, and former U.S. Rep. Michael McNulty. Wynn has personally called lawmakers, and his team was among three to set up booths at a Queens "Night Out Against Crime" event that won points from the host community. [Times Union]

Jerry Weiss is a frequent contributor to Democratic candidates, including $10,000 to the New York State Democratic Committee in 2007, and numerous contributions to Governor Paterson's Senate selectee Kirsten Gillibrand.

Wynn must have hired a press agent as well, because he's just all over the place these days. Last week I linked to this article in the Queens Tribune entitled Wynn Hopes To Win Aqueduct VLT Race. At the time, I overlooked this artist's rendition of Wynn's proposed building, which a reader hilariously referred to as Le Aqueduct en le Bay de Jamaica. I mean, seriously.


Over the weekend, I heard WCBS radio report on the imminence of the selection, and Wynn was the only bidder to be interviewed. And on Monday, he was featured in a piece by NY Post's gossip columnist Cindy Adams (who, I'm told, once wrote that Frank Stronach was New York racing's best hope). Wynn is a piece of work, and I don't know where to start as far picking a selection or two out of this column, as bizarre as much of it is. You just gotta read this thing yourself; here's the link again, it's worth repeating. "I wouldn't have taken that regressive Yonkers situation if they gave it to me." "My balance goes down by 'one,' New York's up by 'one.' My people will simply tell me, 'We're finished in New York. It's done.'" And he takes a couple of direct shots at his rivals.

The Hard Rock's bidding, but they're more known for pool parties. S.L. Green's another. We have photos of vagrants sleeping at their site in Coral Gables. You don't find that anywhere near my places."

I dunno, do you think stuff like this helps his chances? Perhaps he should make himself less visible; take off for Martha's Vineyard or something.

Nice Day for a Drive

In the weeks leading up to Saratoga, I warned on at least a couple of occasions that the quality of the cards would drop off precipitously come the third and 4th weeks. I think I've been pretty wrong about that, at least to this point. Sure, there's been a fair share of state-bred races and maiden claimers, but I think the cards have been pretty solid as a whole. And the races have certainly been competitive from a betting standpoint, even when the fields number "only" six and seven.

However, today's card is more like what I was talking about, especially with two races off the turf due to the weekend rain. (And Wednesday's card contains no less than four maiden claimers.) Two short-field state-bred stakes races, one of them consisting entirely of horses coming off maiden wins, ugh; three miserable state-bred maiden races, and an awful bottom level nw2 claimer. Looks like an advertisement for five day a week racing as far as I can tell. Weather seems nice up there (albeit with the usual PM storm advisory). Great day for a drive out to the Berkshires or Vermont, or a shorter trip up the Northway to Lake George or Lake Moreau; or, if driving's not your thing, check out the Tang Museum at Skidmore (never disappoints), and go and enjoy the beauty and tranquility of Saratoga Springs State Park. Why anyone would instead spend the day watching crummy races like these I can't really say. Seems plain unnecessary, and certainly not in line with the tradition of great racing at Saratoga. Just a way to fill the coffers I suppose.

- Trainer David Jacobsen comes off looking bad in the New York Times today in the latest entry in Joe Drape's continuing Happy Series on thoroughbred racing. Jacobsen is tweaked in the article for claiming Tour of the Cat last fall, and bringing him back to the races this past winter in bottom level claimers at the age of eleven.

Jacobson’s subsequent campaigning of the horse was noticed by horse rescue advocates. In a span of 36 days in January, Tour of the Cat raced three times in New York and once in Maryland. He won twice and finished second and fourth at the lowest level of the sport. [NYT]

Hmmm, two wins and a second; seems to me as if the old boy was enjoying himself. Of course, the subsequent matter of his being shipped to Presque Isle after failing to pass the vet at Finger Lakes seems to be pushing things. “I believed he was in good condition, and had some races left,” Jacobsen said. Maybe so, but certainly an admirable gesture by Maggi Moss to claim the horse and have him retired to the farm, where he's reported to be getting fat and lazy.

Still, my recollection from earlier in the year is that some people thought it was pretty cool to see an old warrior such as Tour of the Cat still competing as long as he seemed to be enjoying it as he had. In fact, NYRA thought it was cool enough to feature on its Facebook page. Now, NYRA's COO Hal Handel is quoted here as saying that “The bottom end of the rung can be hideous for a horse;" and coming in the context of this article as it does, it seems as if NYRA has played this story both ways, and in the manner which happened to suit it best at the time.

Saratoga Briefly

Three winners for trainer George Weaver at Saratoga on Thursday; I knew he had it in him! He's now on a Kimmel-ish streak of four in a row, and seven for 30 over all (and he has a first-time starter running for a 20K tag in today's second). One of the winners was first-timer Golly Day, dull on the board at 8-1, but an impressive winner with a wide rally after an awkward start. He's a two-year old son of Lion Heart, out of Wake Up Kiss, a state-bred stakes winner on the grass at the Spa herself; so a suitable heritage there. And Weaver had a stakes winner of his own with 4-5 Perfect Officer (Officer) in the Solomon Northup.

Selection Process Labors Along

A lobbyist for Steve Wynn told the local Queens Tribune that the decision on the Aqueduct racino is expected to come around Labor Day weekend. But don't expect an award ceremony between races on NYRA's Saturday telecast.

A spokeswoman for the Governor's office was unable to confirm or deny this day and explained that "releasing specific information on the bids impairs the State's integrity in the evaluation process and hampers the State's ability to [blah blah blah]." [Queens Tribune]

So the Vegas/Macau fellow Wynn thinks he's a winner, writes a reader after reading a second article in that paper on Thursday. It would seem as if the Aqueduct Entertainment Group agrees that Wynn is the front runner, having gone as far as to run newspaper and radio ads (on Bloomberg) targeting him with the tagline: "What happens in Las Vegas should stay in Las Vegas." If anyone has heard and/or has a link to the audio of that, please clue us in!

Another reader brings up Wynn's old buddies at Excelsior and the possibility of them finagling their way up the Belt to the Cross Island and Belmont. I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility of Richard Fields & Co re-emerging if and, in my mind, if when Belmont comes into play. It's been pointed out to me that an entity called Coastal Development Ltd, a company (of some sort) owned and controlled by Fields, donated $25,000 apiece to the Democratic and Republican NY Senate campaign committees last October (a fact you can look up for yourself on the website of the state's Campaign Financial Disclosure site).

But whether they would want to partner with Wynn I can't say, considering the way that he helped put the final gash in the already sinking Excelsior ship with his bizarre testimony to Spitzer's racino panel in April 2007.

As another reader points out, Elizabeth Benjamin writes on her Daily Politics blog that the law firm Manatt, Phelps, and Phillips, hired by the Paterson administration ( at a cost "up to" $600,000) to handle legal aspects of the bidding process, has represented Delaware North in unrelated matters out of state.

Paterson spokesman Peter Kauffmann said the administration knew Manatt represented Delaware North involving unrelated “hospitality projects” in California, adding: “Our counsel’s office thoroughly reviewed it and determined there was no conflict."

He said the firm won't play a role in the selection of bidders. It was retained to assist in the drafting and review of “transactional legal documents,” he added. [Daily Politics]