I'll Take The Under

I'm told by a reliable source up in Saratoga that the over/under on the attendance for Rachel Alexandra's appearance in the Woodward on Saturday is 35,000. I think that's high; 30,000 seems more like it to me. Last year, NYRA was able to attract only 22,572 for Curlin's appearance in the same race despite an all-out publicity effort. Do you think they'll be able to draw some 13,000 more this time? (Of course, I'm talking about actual attendees, not the full-of-baloney crowd figure announced for the Mother Goose, inflated by at least 25% in my humble but highly experienced opinion.)

Granted, my source and I agreed that Rachel Alexandra is probably a bigger draw than Curlin was....a notion which, if true, is, in my opinion and with no disrespect intended to the filly and her followers, a pretty pitiful reflection on the efforts of this industry to promote its biggest event and showcase award...the one we debate and argue over throughout most of the year. After all, if that is indeed the case, it basically means that the Breeders Cup Classic and Horse of the Year award don't really add up to jack shit when it comes to the public consciousness. Preakness + Haskell trumps BC Classic + Horse of the Year? That shouldn't be, regardless of the spectacular nature of her victories, and despite the fact that she's a filly beating boys.

Still, the Saratoga meet as a vacation destination basically ends after the Travers in my view, as evidenced by past Labor Day weekend crowds, and reinforced in part by the sparse crowd under perfect weather conditions this past Monday. I believe that it would take a mammoth event to draw fans back up there on the last weekend. We already had plans to go because we've come to enjoy this time there - the crowds are thinner, I find that the fields are generally full, and the weather tends to be better (the forecast is glorious and probably even a bit unseasonably warm). And the Final Stretch Music Festival in town is awesome. Almost a reason in itself to come. (And note that its hours have been moved back to 7 - 11 PM this year.)

But no way I'd make the trip specifically to see this race. Are any of you? In a far, far more perfect world, perhaps she'd be facing opponents like Big Brown and/or Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin himself. Then, I'd be up there in a heartbeat....as would I'd guess some 50,000 other people. But to see her face this field? NYRA is certainly pulling out all the stops. But as I said last year, you can't market in a vacuum. And this is basically the main problem that dogs this industry - the early retirement of its stars, and the complete lack of any sustained rivalries.

So, NYRA can tout the historic nature of the filly's probable victory in this race; Jess Jackson can bluster about finding her place in history; Steve Asmussen can tell us with a straight face that she'll need to be at her best. Perhaps she is the greatest filly of all time as some are saying. Too bad she won't be able to prove it on the track....at least not this week, or this year as long as Jess Jackson selfishly and vindictively gets his "revenge" on those of us who "forced" him to run Curlin in the synthetic Classic. And you never know how a filly will come back at four after some time off, so you can't take it for granted that she'll be the wonderfilly she is now in 2010.

Oh, and my attendance prediction? 28,743. (That's actual people through the turnstiles, not a tally by vote counters from Iran or Afghanistan.)