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Thursday, April 06, 2006

Highland Cat Tries Again

- Highland Cat goes in the ninth at the Big A on Friday; it’s a one-turn mile for maidens with claiming tags of 50 down to 40K. It’s the lowest level yet for our not-that-fleet grey gelding, and he’ll meet nothing like horses like Great Point, Flashy Bull, and Greeley’s Legacy that he’s been crushed by before. Nor even Scots Pine, the even money winner of his last effort. He’s worked really well since then, including a bullet (of 11) half in :47 4/5. Our trainer Bill Turner says that he disliked the loose inner track and will do better on the main; and he feels he’ll like the slop that is likely given tomorrow’s forecast.

But if he doesn’t like getting hit in the face with dirt, which is evident to me from watching his races, I can’t imagine he’ll relish mud in the face either. The biggest disappointment to me about Highland Cat is that he’s never shown the speed from the gate that the trainer and his exercise riders were confident he would when he was training for his debut up at Saratoga last summer. He breaks from the outside nine post on Friday, and that’s a good post for this distance; if he can get away from the gate, and if he does relish slop, perhaps he’ll improve. The problem is that even at this level, he’s just plain slower than others. Forest Phantom improved markedly in his debut for the Contessa barn. Kris’s Affair has two seconds at this level and a 74 Beyer two back. Honored Nation closed well for third at this level in his last and stretches out from six furlongs.

I still think that our horse will do better on the turf; he has the breeding for it. If he’s unsuccessful tomorrow, we’re told that he’ll try it next time. Still, the trainer is confident and my man at the barn says we should be no worse than third. We’ll see.

- Paul Moran in Newsday writes of recent Derby winners that the conventional wisdom….is mired in a long losing streak. With Barbaro expected to be one of the favorites, one of those conventional wisdoms, that a five-week layoff it too long, will get perhaps its biggest test of recent years. Because the fact is that, as detailed by Watchmaker in the Form (sub. only), only 19 horses have even attempted it in the last ten years, and an even closer look finds that most of them had far less imposing credentials than Barbaro will. Most of them, in fact, were rank outsiders; only three started at odds of less than 10-1. Interestingly, two of those, Stephen Got Even (1999, 5-1) and Perfect Drift (2002, 7-1) had last raced in, and won, the Lane’s End. The other, High Fly, was, in my opinion, an extremely dubious 7-1 last year, especially considering that his own jockey, Jerry Bailey, had publicly expressed doubt about the horse’s ability to get the distance.

- David Hofmans will have two starters in Grade 1 races on Saturday; Sacred Light goes in the Santa Anita Derby, and Balance will race in the Ashland at Keeneland. Guess where he’ll be? He decided to make the trip to Lexington because Balance "needs a little special attention because she can be a handful." [Louisville Courier-Journal] Perhaps he doesn’t want to hurt Sacred Light’s feelings; I’d guess that he’d be at Keeneland even if Balance could saddle herself. The filly worked a leisurely half in 51 seconds yesterday. "It was a good little blowout….I just wanted to take the edge off." [Lexington Herald Reader]

In 1997, Hofmans faced a similar situation when he had Touch Gold running in the Haskell on the same day as Awesome Again was going in the Jim Dandy. Both horses won that day. It’s unlikely that the same will happen on Saturday (though man, Sacred Light's pp’s sure are reminiscent of those of Giacomo). Brother Derek has been installed as the 3-5 favorite, and all systems are go for the prospective Derby favorite. Dan Hendricks told the Courier-Journal: “He's fresh and going into the race with what I hope is a lot more in reserve. He seems to be advancing -- and he needs to."

Of course, he doesn’t need to win, and he’ll face a couple of horses who showed nice improvement in their last race in AP Warrior and Point Determined. I could be persuaded to take a little shot against the favorite here.

- At least one prominent and knowledgeable horseman doesn’t think much of this crop of three year olds. The Team Valor website tells us that their president Barry Irwin has barely seen a legitimate Grade 1 horse in the crop, let alone a horse up to normal Classic standard. He thinks the only true Classic horse in the crop could be Discreet Cat, who has run but twice [now three times] and currently is training in Dubai. Team Valor has purchased a French colt named Oh So Awesome (Awesome Again) with an eye to the Belmont. “Can you imagine what will be left of this bunch by the time the Belmont Stakes is run?” Oh So Awesome is scheduled to run in France this weekend, and if all goes well, he’ll try the “off the plane” strategy in the Belmont that Irwin used with My Memoirs, who ran second to AP Indy in 1992.

12 Comments:

Anonymous said...

...well, today's the big day...Partywithlarryz hits the track in the opener with Tyler Baze aboard, and he's been installed as the 5/2 ml favorite...that's to be expected with the Ward/Baze combo, so it's not necessarily a reflection of his ability...and luckily, Brad Free in the Racing Form is picking him THIRD...don't get me wrong, i'm sure the money will show up on the horse...one thing i know for sure is that i'm not the only guy who's been waiting on him...i'm still a little worried about the 10-hole, but there's nothing we can do about that, and i HAVE seen a couple of 2yo's running well from the outside the last week or so...Youandiatdelmar ran second to Hot Flame at big odds from the 10-hole last week, and the one-two finishers yesterday broke from posts 8 and 9, respectively...also, when you're on the outside, you only have to worry about one horse bumping you, as opposed to two...reportedly, horses in the outside post are more prone to breaking out (for whatever reason), and i do believe the track is a little deeper and/or looser out there...but suffice to say, i'll be shocked if he doesn't run well...as for his competition today, we seem to have caught a break...none of the firsters i have reports on are showing anything noteworthy, and those with experience happen to be coming out of the slowest 2-furlong race of the meet...there IS a Shane Chipman firster to worry about, but all things being equal, you couldn't have asked for a softer group...or so it would appear...so bottom line, i think Partywithlarryz is an excellent bet today...if he goes off at 2/1 or better, i'll be extremely pleased...i've gotta think he's even-money or so to win the race...best of luck, guys...

UPDATE: i just checked the odds again, and the #5 horse seems to have taken a large wager ($500-$1000 dollars) since the last time i looked roughly 10 minutes ago. That's the Chipman horse. Still 90 minutes to post, but i thought it was worth mentioning. Incidentally, i checked to see if this one had been working with Chipman's winner from yesterday, Fancy and Free, but they have not.

...hey Alan, good luck with Highland Cat tomorrow...we're all rooting for him...

Anonymous said...

...some noteworthy Brother Derek stuff for you...Alan touched on this the other day, but apparently his recent workout was flat-out brilliant...i was just perusing the Santa Anita Stable Notes section (an excellent resource), and i came across two seperate comments from private clocker Toby Turrell, who is UNQUESTIONABLY one of the sharpest and most highly-respected guys out there...when he talks, i listen...

"He was sensational. I could not have written a script to have the work go any better, at any point."

"I was standing with Hendricks when he (Brother Derek) came back, and Solis didn't want to say anything. He was just whistling. That's about all you could do after watching the work. It was amazing. I haven't seen a horse come into a race more beautifully or powerfully than this horse is for Saturday, and i've been clocking for close to 20 years."

Solis said about the drill:

"Incredible. The same way i broke off at the 5/8th's pole, that's the same hold i had the last part, so it's scary. Scary good."

...here's the bad news...Brother Derek is 3/5 on the morning line...ugh... 8^P

Anonymous said...

All Right Walter, 40 minutes until post time and I have my bets down. Got the 10 to Win. exacta 10/5-8-9 and daily double 10 witht he 1-3 and a little pick 3 10/1-3/7. I am feeling good and of course will not blame you if he doesn't break well. Good luck with your bets. The info you just posted on
Derrick is troubling. I was really wanting to beat him with A. P. warrior of Point Determined. Both of which I have futures bets on. Don't know if I shuld try now. That Downey Dude on Bloodhorse likes Sacred light. Are you hearing any thing more about any of Derrick's competition.-byanose

Alan Mann said...

Meant to post earlier that his sire Beau Genius is a 14 percent-er with juvenile first timers...

Anonymous said...

wow-they are pounding the 5 horse and as of now the 10 horse is 5-1. At least some value!!

Anonymous said...

3 minutes to post and the 10 is now the favorite, maybe you will get your 2-1 after all!! Thought the 9 looked good in the post parade. We shall soon see!!

Anonymous said...

He damn sure broke out like a big dog!! I guess that is why they pay Brad Free the big bucks!! Maybe next time

Anonymous said...

...well, i guess you guys saw what happened...Larry Z broke sideways and lost all chance...the damn 10-hole, i guess that was it...i generally don't curse or root loudly in public, because it makes you look like an idiot, and it's not gonna help anyway...but i've gotta be honest, i let out a few choice words when i saw what happened...suffice to say i was extremely disappointed...as Anonymous mentioned, Larry Z was 5/1 with 20 minutes to post, but the late money came pouring in and he ended up going favored @ 9/5 (last i saw)...i thought he was a good bet at that price, and i still do...you just can't predict the horse is gonna break sideways, though it HAS happened with outside horses before, so i guess it's not all that unusual...thems the breaks...the only positive here is that he should come back at a bigger price next time, and i've gotta think he'll be live...with the race under his belt and with a better draw, well, he should do better next time...he better do better next time...mudderfoulkingsonofabeach...

Alan Mann said...

Just watched the race. Talk about "they're off, you lose.." (sorry man.)
he made up a fair amount of ground before flattening out a bit at the end. Definitely do better next time. Walter, are the jockeys not permitted to use whips in these races?

Anonymous said...

If our boy doesn't run well on Friday, I'm renaming him HIGHLAND RAT

Anonymous said...

...i believe that's correct Alan, no whipping the babies...at least in the 2-furlong dashes...

Anonymous said...

Sorry, Seemed like he didn't run a lick. perhaps you need a better trainer or pray for a claim!