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Thursday, July 26, 2007

The Forecast

- Here's the relevant, for me, weather forecast for Del Mar:

Jul 28

Partly Cloudy
76°/65° 10%

Jul 29

Partly Cloudy
72°/64° 10%

Jul 30

Mostly Sunny
71°/64° 10%

Jul 31

Mostly Sunny
72°/64° 20%

Aug 1

72°/64° 20%

Aug 2

74°/64° 10%

Aug 3

75°/65° 10%

Aug 4

74°/65° 0% [The Weather Channel]
Accuweather has the daytime temperatures a good 4-5 degrees higher; more in a couple of cases. I generally find their forecasts to be more accurate, but I couldn't steal the text from them as easily as from The Weather Channel. I crossed out the precipitation probability because I figure that's just bullshit, someone trying to cover their ass in case the wind whips up some ocean spray and a vacationing lawyer from Boston threatens to sue.

The Weather Channel has the better radar - the Doppler Radar 600-Mile (original version) (in motion). And though I love Saratoga dearly and envy all of you who are there right now, I will NOT miss sitting at the computer and trying to handicap the rain as the green blotches filled with angry orange and red make their way towards that area about halfway between Lake George and Albany. (Though I will share your pain on Friday night with the stakes races coming up on Saturday, and scattered storms predicted for the area.)

- Do you think there's something to this thing about Pletcher not winning with first-time juvies on the dirt at Saratoga? Today, he ran 4th with his debut runner Alachua (Grand Slam), at 4-1. That makes him 3 for 30 (10%) with two year olds debuting on the dirt at the Spa in the last two years. Now, if you go back three years (these stats all via Formulator), the percentage jumps from 10% to 20% (he was 7 for 21 in 2004). And if I exclude Saratoga from the last two years, the percentage jumps to 24%. It's probably just a fluke. But the trend is your friend, as they say, so be wary when the odds get short. 11 out of his last 12 debut runners that have started at less than 3-1 on the dirt at the Spa have lost. The lowest of those? Cowtown Cat, at 7-10 last year.


Valerie Grash said...

Have a blast in Cali! If you get a chance...I see the Violent Femmes are playing Del Mar on August 3 as part of their summer concert series :)

Anonymous said...

Leaving at Dawn for the weekend at the Spa. Wish we had Delmar's weather (VERY humid), but very happy with Saturday's card.

Always attend the Whitney, it usually is a 7 horse field with two something to five shots and five outclassed animals battling for the show, at least on paper.

This year, while it is more like a grade two, it is a GREAT Betting race!!

Mr. Ed

PS - Now that I wrote that you know the faves will run 1-2-3.

Alan Mann said...

>>Now that I wrote that you know the faves will run 1-2-3.

Maybe so, but the payoff would still probably be fair. I can't see the favorite being any less than 7-2 or so.

Have a great time!

>>I see the Violent Femmes are playing Del Mar on August 3 as part of their summer concert series :)

Oh, I'm there for sure!