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Monday, January 19, 2009

Monday Morning Notes - Jan 19

A couple of knowledgeable readers wrote in to point out that I was sadly mistaken in this post when I stated that NYRA got a smaller cut of wagers placed on track (or via NYRA Rewards for that matter) on the simulcast signals it offers. In fact, the yield to NYRA is virtually the same for those wagers, as it pays just the relatively small signal fee - perhaps 3-4% - to the originating track. So while simulcasting may very well detract from handle on the live racing, it results in no negative financial impact for NYRA. So, so much for that snarky comparison. But, although I had the facts wrong, the point that the business model needs fixing remains valid, as it's widely accepted that those fees that the tracks get for their exported signals are too small.

I had to run out of the track shortly after the Affectionately yesterday to get home for our dinner party, so I haven't yet gotten the postmortems on that fiasco. When two horses scratched during the day, the field was reduced to four. That meant that Rap Tale needed to beat only one other horse to get her black type; and as cheap as that may have seemed, black type is black type so it seems. The steam started coming out of Bob's ears before the horses even reached the backstretch - running off the flank of the 3-5 favorite Spritely in two opening sub-24 second quarters was obviously not what we had in mind. I'm hoping that he'll calm down enough to discuss this sometime before President's Day. We were actually wishing for a trip along the lines of the winner Yet Again, hoping as we were that Are We Dreamin would be the one challenging the pace. Instead, it was pretty obvious she'd finish last before they hit the final turn. (But yes, the free food in Equestris was cool.)

So, Mr. or Ms. Anonymous, you're free to have your fun at my expense. I think I've been pretty clear all along that I think it's a totally fair point to question her campaign, and that I have mixed feelings on the matter, preferring as I would to run her where she can win. I've certainly criticized others in that regard when it comes to the Triple Crown.

However, having said that, I must point out again that Rap Tale has won three times for Kasey K since we claimed her for 25K in May, and has earned over $100,000 since that time. (And yes, that includes the $3,512 reward for running last yesterday.) And that, if not for the unfortunate mishap at the end of the Ladies Handicap, she would already have had her black type. If you saw her on the track before the race yesterday, I think you'd have to agree that she's happy and healthy, none the worse for the wear, and filling out impressively early in her four-year old year. This is a business after all, and here was a chance to significantly enhance the filly's value. So, I don't feel the necessity to be defensive.....even though that's exactly what I've just done!

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite worked out.....and, to be honest, we'll probably never get a better shot than we have here in the dead of winter at the Big A....especially yesterday, when we only had to beat one horse....for heaven's sake!! So perhaps a return to the allowance ranks will be next. She has at least shown some pretty nice speed in these last two efforts, effectively burying the favorite on the front end in each race.

- In today's second race, Monastir (6-1) debuts for trainer Mark Hennig off a string of nice workouts at the Payson Park training center in Florida. Hennig had a first-time winner named Primary Witness ($15.40) at Gulfstream last Wednesday, and it appears from the workout lines that these two may have been working together. At the least, they did so on the same days, and in comparable fashion. Monastir is by the good first-out sire Malibu Moon (12% according to the Form), out of a Tabasco Cat mare. Inbred thrice to Secretariat, this colt's second dam is a half to the G1 winner Fire the Groom (the dam of Stravinsky); and this is also the distaff family of the current sire Read the Footnotes.


Anonymous said...

I actually had Primary Witness working with a horse named Chapin Beach.

Anonymous said...

Alan, You seem so much more realistic about Rap Tale then the other owners. The Filly
looked fit on the track. But Luzzi and and the fact she chased the pace spelled doom. Why would anyone ever ride him. I never have and never will. Find yourself a nice starter handicap race somewhere on the east coast take the blinkers off she needs to relax, and you can have some fun. the black type really is not that important as winning races and getting purse money. tell your partner to deflate his fat EGO. Jason

Anonymous said...

Rap Tale belongs in a 3500 claimer at Penn. You keep running her the way u do thats where she will end up.

Alan Mann said...

>>tell your partner to deflate his fat EGO.

Well, for one thing, I don't know of any successful horse owners without at least a skinny one. And I do know that my partner is merely trying to get the best return for the group. But I certainly wouldn't be opposed to one of those nice starter handicaps. She must be eligible for some nice ones since she ran for a 25K tag

>>Rap Tale belongs in a 3500 claimer at Penn.

Ignorant statement from an ignoramus.

Anonymous said...

There are plenty of shots at black type out of town come springtime, for now it is time for some class relief.

Let her get her confidence back, and the partnership some operating capital, by winning a couple of those rich starter handicaps. Those races will not be there come spring, out of town black type races will be.

You took your shots, and they were worthy efforts, but unfortunately you has some bad luck.

Before you ruin her confidence it's time for a winning spot, not that you need me to tell you that as you obviously agree.

Anonymous said...

Let me get this straight, people ( anonymous of course ) are criticizing the connections of Rap Tale for their handling of her? Even if she hadn't made a penny she was a brilliant claim for $25K with her pedigree. OK, the market has obviously deflated over the past six months, but she's still worth well in excess of her claim price. And, to make it even better, she appears to have banked six figures since the claim. The anonymous trashers should be lucky enough to even once in life be smart enough to put themselves in such an enviable position of stupidity.

Yeah, it was really dumb to run in her in a four horse field in an effort to get some black type. Almost as moronic as it was to claim her for a quarter. If only the connections had been as brilliant as the anonymous posters ( prior to myself of course ).

El Angelo said...

I don't at all disagree with Alan's handling of his horse. What's really sad, honestly, is the reality that "black type" of running 3rd in a 4 horse race in January at Aqueduct is such a positive for broodmare's value. But since that's how the game is played, you're crazy if you don't take your shots.