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Sunday, August 02, 2009

Saratoga Monday

In the first, Turner Falls (10-1) drops in class and cuts back in distance for Steve Klesaris. This three-year old daughter of Northern Afleet raced well at this six furlong distance at a higher level on the inner track at the Big A over the winter. This may be Saratoga in the summertime, but no one in this field could touch the since-unbeaten Softly Spoken, to whom Turner Falls ran second in March. Hoping for enough pace from the likes of Sophisticated Lass, Bikini, and Partners Star to set up a late run. Gracious Victory (3-1) ships in from Delaware for Anthony Dutrow, off to a flying start at 6-3-1-2, and looks the logical choice with Ramon.

Good luck with that early pick four - four maiden races, three for juveniles and the other at a mile and a half, ha ha.

In the 6th, Silvercup Baby (10-1) was on a roll with jockey Cornelio Velasquez during the spring with two easy main track wins; returns to that surface after two tries on grass, and the jockey sticks around for trainer Carl Domino. Karakorum Fugitive (7-2) also returns to the main and has the Beyers to take this if she handles the cutback in distance. Dance Gal Dance (5-2) looks like lone speed but could be gasping for breath in deep stretch. Doremifasollatedo (3-1) could be a classic case of a two-year old filly not going on at three; will be a bit overbet on her name too.


Anonymous said...

IF you are daring to play the Maiden pick four note that Races 2 and 4 are off the turf, and the track is sloppy and yielding, per the NYRA Turf course update link, the best innovation by NYRA in.....
well, maybe forever.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, meant races 3 and 5, obviously my brain needs some innovation as badly as nyra.

ballyfager said...

I agree with you about Silvercup Baby but I think 10-1 is not likely. If she runs back to her 7 1/2 fur. race at Bel she wins.

jamesp said...

Congrats, Alan, on a $254 Pick 4 - nothing to sneeze at!

Meanwhile, it was nice seeing Jersey racing have a brush-up with greatness - if only for a day - but it seems like the state just can't catch a break these days.

In Monmouth's last 4 biggest racing days (Breeders Cup Friday, Breeders Cup Saturday, Big Brown Haskell Day and Sunday) there have been torrential downpours on 3 of them. What is the probability of that? AND the days right before and after were sun-splashed. Voodoo? Irish curse?

Monmouth needed a huge day in the same way that Belmont does on the first Saturday in June to bolster their numbers for the whole meet.

Instead, there were nasty spills in the 3rd and 4th races (again, not the best thing to have happen on the one day of the year you expect to win over new racing fans) and the remaining turf races went to dirt/mud. The 8th and 12th stakes races had three starters each with win and paltry exacta betting only, not exactly a formula for record-smashing handles.

With the state's politicians running neck and neck with New York's and Kentucky's for general ass-hattery, it doesn't look good for racing in Sopranoland right now.


Bob said...

>>Congrats, Alan, on a $254 Pick 4 - nothing to sneeze at!

Agreed Alan, nice job, no need to apologize for the price. Better than that guy on that brooklyn Backstretch blog who can't pick nothing.

ljk said...

Get ready for "timergate 2", remembering the skepticism of Lawyer Ron's Whitney. Quality Road was awesome, surely the Travers winner absent Rachel, but 1:13 2/5? Even Imbriale (what happened to Durkin? he was announcing earlier)announced that the final time couldn't be right.

Thing is that the early fractions made sense. It must have been an unbelievable finish by QR.

Alan Mann said...

Crist writes:

>>Dave Litfin is reporting over on The Inside Post that track officials are now saying the final time of the Amsterdam is correct and that only the six-furlong split is off -- it should have been 1:07.22 and not 1:06.85.>>

ljk said...

Maybe I'm the only conspiracy theorist, but I'm not buying it. First there were no splits posted during the race, so I'm guessing the automatic timers were skunky. Then they post a crazy 6 furlong split only to adjust it later.

So here's what were's saying QR did:

He made up 4 lengths in a second quarter run in 22.5. So his fraction was something like 21.7

A 3rd quarter in about 22 flat, smashing the 6 furlong track record by 4/5ths.

The final 1/16 in 6.2

Maybe, but I'm dubious.

Alan Mann said...

I'm hearing that he earned a rather moderate Beyer, considering the time, of 103

ljk said...

Looks like the Beyer boys don't believe the time either.

Crist: "A few of you asked about the Beyer figure for Quality Road's Amsterdam. It has been provisionally given a 103 amid the ongoing uncertainty over the fractional and final times for the race. If you took the clocking of 1:13.45 for 6.5f at face value, and assigned the race the same variant that worked perfectly for every other dirt race on the card, it would get a 119, which seems impossibly high given that Quality Road stumbled at the start and raced wide and that such a winning figure would give Capt. Candyman Can a 113, a 14-point career top in a race where he altered course sharply, and distant third-place finisher Captain Cherokee a 104, a 16-point career top."

Next he can explain how they decided on 103...

Alan Mann said...

Explanations like this show that the Beyer numbers can be every bit as subjective as the least when they have to fudge them to make sense. The Beyer guys are quick to say that the figs "is what it is," but stuff like this puts the lie to that.