I've picked some live runners at fair odds lately - including, on Saturday, Summer Romance (5th by a length, head, and neck, and a fleeting moment at which she looked like she had a shot, at 22-1 in the Herecomesthebride; and Custer, third by a length and a nose at 5-1 in the finale - and, though they didn't get the job done, I figure that eventually I'll get a couple home if I can keep doing that. Right? So, forging on...
In the 5th, Paris Weekend (6-1) showed a bit of improvement with blinkers on three races back; and much more so when she was then stretched out to the one-turn mile distance of this race. This daughter of the AP Indy sire Full Mandate had to wait for room after moving up sharply inside on the turn, then angled out and wore down the leader before getting caught late. Coa returns; another shot here.
In the 10th, Saint Jude (8-1) comes off a maiden special win over Paddy O'Prado, who came back to win the G3 Palm Beach with a 93 Beyer on Saturday. There goes 8-1 I guess. Still a tough task stepping up to face winners, so you have to demand some value; but I love the way this three-year old son of Eurosilver has taken to the grass. He was three wide on the first turn of that last race; and a good 4-5 wide turning for home. Still, he came home in 11 2/5 (don't you love turf racing?) and prevailed in a long drive over Kaiser Chief, a $450,000 Johannesburg colt making its grass debut for Pletcher, and finishing almost three lengths in front of Paddy O'Prado. His prior was a second in a race which has produced four subsequent winners. Trainer David Vivian repeats a successful workout pattern with a five furlong breeze a week before this race. Solid barn, 20% over the last three years, has had a slow meet, but has shown signs of life with a win (Givonna Alyssa at 26-1), a narrow second and a third with his last three starters at the meet. Forty Nine Acres (5-1) seems overpriced at those odds; lone grass try was an excellent second at this level with a field high Beyer.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Gulfstream Sunday
Posted by Alan Mann at 8:10 PM
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6 Comments:
Hey Steve, were you on Crisp today? I stuck with her and was rewarded nicely ($13.60). I think she responded well to the addition of blinkers. She had a bit of a problem lugging in when turning for home in the Las Virgenes, which i think cost her some momentum in that race.
Crisp paid huge in mutli-race exotics, and Proviso's nose was worth a huge amount too. Big day.
Dirty
I had an ofer at SA on Saturday. I liked Crisp but didn't think anyone was going to beat the chalk. One more stride and that woulda been true. I was also too enamored of St. Trinian's and didn't like either of Barba's colts. Good thing they didn't have 13 or 14 races. Didn't even turn on the computer on Sunday.
Glad you got it, DC.
One less stride and my $200 to show on Crisp was worth serious money. Over $250k bet to show on that mule.
I think Bejarano may have cost Blind Luck the race. He arguably waited too long to move on her, and then for some reason angled her down towards the rail instead of keeping her out in the clear. That being said however, she was a sizable underlay at 1/2 (with Crisp offering nearly 6/1). They're not so different in ability that there should've been that kind of discrepancy in the odds.
I agree with you on the ride (why did he go inside?) and the value issue, DC - especially given Blind Luck's running style. But sometimes, even a longshot player like me doesn't want to oppose the chalk. So I sat the race out.
Singling Blind Luck in the P6 didn't hurt because I was nowhere close anyway. That filly sure eats up ground once she gets going.
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