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Friday, August 12, 2011

Portrait of a Stretch Run

Another tough loss for trainer Tom Bush in the 2nd on Thursday, with Summer Share, who looked well on his way to victory after making a three wide move turning for home. I know I would not have liked my chances if I had Most Happy Fella ($7.40) at that point, as he looked like he was getting gobbled up as Summer Share and favored Cinder Cone ranged up alongside. But he somehow managed to fight back and hang on by a long nose, giving William Badgett his first training winner of the meet. I dunno, maybe there was still a speed bias, or an inside bias; hard to say considering there were only three dirt races on the day.

Already discussed Indian Tale ($7.20); and while I feel a little silly that she won, probably not as much so as her prior connections for letting her go for 35K on Sunday. We'll see if Dutrow enters her next in the Alabama.

Crazy stretch run in the 4th (and another excellent call by Durkin). Stormin Bud ($10.60) held on to win in a melee as wild as last night's Republican presidential debate. But the runner-up was the subject of what might be the most epic chart call of all time.

LAW ENFORCEMENT was unhurried in the early going while racing along the outside, ducked over to the rail after another had vacated the premises in the vicinity of the three-eighths pole, was given some rein and accelerated past many of those who had chosen a wider route into the stretch to reach contention, altered course outward just past the three-sixteenths pole, but had no sooner done so when her newly chosen path got shut down by the drifting embattled pair just up ahead, saw a more promising route along the rail and altered course a second tine to avail of the opportunity, wrested away from the lead as the front runners brushed and continued to make their way towards the middle of the strip, attempted to stave off the eventual winner when once more on even terms in deep stretch, got outfinished late and had to settle for the place.
Been wondering for over a year now just who this chart-caller guy is, and it turns out to be Henry James.

Two horses claimed for the 50K optional claiming price; Radiohead, last seen running a close 4th in the G3 Jaipur, was taken from IEAH (remember them?) by James Chapman (for himself); Mannington by Rudy Rodriguez.


ljk said...

Not a single allowance race on the Friday card. I can't say I recall that happening before.

Alan Mann said...

good catch, yes that's very odd. It's the mid-meet doldrums. Two more mdn claimers after three yesterday. Just too many days/races to support the kind of quality that used to be.

steve in nc said...

Yeah, tons of maiden races tomorrow too.

Amazing chart. I was dying to edit it as I read it because while I like the detail, phrases like "a second time to avail of the opportunity" could be replaced by "again" in a chart.

I'll bet the trouble line turns out to be "gamely."

steve in nc said...

Indian Tale's entered Monday in a turf allowance. Hey Dutrow, why not run her twice a week for the rest of the meet? Get as much as you can while the lawyers appeal.

Race 4 on Saturday is an interesting bad maiden claimer, the kind where I don't put any stock in speed #s.

What makes it interesting to me is the Pletcher presence. He's been winning with every 2yo mdn, so his odds should be even lower than they'd be normally, even though this is a 3yo, Miami Ghost.

This is a low tag for a $100,000 purchase who hasn't even failed on dirt yet (and has a dam & half-sib that were dirt sprinters).

Works aren't good and although samples are very small, Pletcher doesn't have the spellbinding % on maiden turf-to-dirt or new maiden acquisitions that he does with most other maiden categories. He may win for fun but you can keep the $4.80.

In a field with lots who've failed at this level in sprints, I prefer #9 Willy Pay, who's only routed but whose best race was his shortest dirt race.

Kimmel shows 0-4 blinks off on DRF, but if you go back in Forumulator, blinks off for maidens is a good % move for Kimmel and profitable, with winners coming at the Spa. How bad he looks in different kinds of races is what gets you 15-1 when he should be 5-1 here.

Ry Bread has positive angles for Jerkens, but they are more obvious, so you'll only get the 5-1. At 7f, I'd rather take the turn-backer at higher odds.

Good luck and may Pletcher's gelding limp home safely.

jk said...

Regarding the previous post on saving jobs, layoffs etc;

Thousands on NYC OTB jobs were lost yet NYRA is breaking even with 35% of the business without the dead weight of these public employees.

I did not hear too much sympathy for this particular group of public employees when the ax came.