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Sunday, August 05, 2012

Sunday Double

In the 1st, Fire Assay (7-2) stretches out to a mile and 3/16 for trainer Jimmy Toner.  This filly seemed to just be getting started in each of her last two starts, at 1 1/16, before literally running out of real estate.  Those were both slow-paced affairs in which she finished with a big burst each time, though never as a threat to get up for the win.  Seems only natural that this four-year old daughter of the Travers winner Medgalia d'Oro, out of the Alabama winner Jostle, would take to the extra ground.  Don't expect the pace to be too much livelier in this spot, but she's already proven she can close against the pace grain, and she could be up in time against moderate rivals here.  Trophy Wife (3-1) ran evenly in her first on turf and against winners and figures to improve.

In the second, Hogue (8-1) comes off the bench for a capable layoff trainer in Ken McPeek.  Son of Exchange Rate showed ability in each of his starts as a 2yo last fall, two on grass and one on the grass-like Keelenland Poly, despite being victimized by poor starts and slow paces.  Finished second in his last race behind subsequent Remsen winner O'Prado Again (and haven't seen that one again since then).  Steady works, adds Lasix (barn is 24% in that category), and would be good value at that morning line in a questionable field.   Quite Danger (6-1) moves back up to maiden special weights after an improved effort against claimers for the hot George Weaver barn.  Input (3-1) and Conspiracy (4-1) were both dull on the board in their 6/30 debut, lagged far behind a hot pace and passed tired horses in the stretch; doubtful they'll be seeing a 45 1/5 half to close into here.


steve in nc said...

Looking at race two, formulator presents this about Chad Brown with 3 yo MSW runners in turf routes:
firsters: 2-2
2nd out: 28% winners
NYA 2nd out: 7-15 but low prices
same coming back within 2 months: 4-11.

Not much value, but I have to use him in DDs along with your horse and the Mott horse on the outside, also eligible to improve a lot in his 2nd start this year.

Figless said...

Your choice in the first makes sense, going to us with Lelaps who appears live in the 2nd for Team Valor. Returns to America via Fair Hill presumably to take advantage of Salix, Motion has positive ROI with these types.

Figless said...

No win bet on Lelaps, didnt want the 7-2, oh well.