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Saturday, December 31, 2005

Happy NYRA New Year

- The $30 million bailout loan ("People will say that this is a bailout, but in reality the state will get its money back") that was finally agreed to by NYRA and the state should make for a Happy New Year for everyone, except for those who bet win, place, and show and wager less than $2000 a month. NYRA will finally be able to offer rebates to those who bet more than that, but in return, partly surrendered on the takeout, agreeing to a one percent increase on the aforementioned pools only effective April 1.

And those hammers will start flying for real in a few weeks as NYRA, as part of the deal, finally gets the approval from the state lottery to proceed on construction; gee, that wasn’t so hard, was it? Holding back approval for so long has cost the state a lot of money, and if it was done so as a negotiating tool, I would wonder it was all was worth it. The state got a partial takeout increase to compensate for the rebate program which they were pressured by all sides other than the OTBs to give in on; and they did also prevent NYRA from selling any property outright, not budging an inch on the land ownership issue, though putting off for now a decisive moment in the courts.

Nonetheless, NYRA once again seems to escape from the brink, as it did this past summer when it avoided federal prosecution. The next obstacle will be warding off Senator Bruno and others’ calls for an early franchising process and making it to the promised land of casino subsidies. Looking beyond that, NYRA’s Bill Nader said that “it provides NYRA with a better opportunity to prove that it is the best possible operator of the New York tracks for 2008 and beyond." [NY Times] That would have been unthinkable not long ago, and perhaps it still is; but NYRA has shown a lot of resiliency and has played its cards well, and what will happen from here is anyone's guess.

- That’s it for me for the year. The Head Chef and I are off for a New Year’s feast, and we hope that all of you have a fun and safe New Year’s Eve, and we wish you all a happy and peaceful New Year.

- Feel free to email me with comments, links, questions or suggestions.

4 Comments:

Walter said...

...i was over @ the Wynn yesterday, and came across something very unexpected...Breeders Cup Futures!...i think this is the earliest i've ever seen them out...of course, they're only offering the Classic right now, but you gotta start somewhere...

Andromeda's Hero 25/1
A.P. Warrior 75/1
Bandini 60/1
Bellamy Road 25/1
Bluegrass Cat 50/1
Bob and John 100/1
Borrego 12/1
Brother Derek 75/1
Buzzards Bay 75/1
Choctaw Nation 25/1
Commentator 20/1
Declan's Moon 25/1
Don't Get Mad 20/1
First Samurai 40/1
Flower Alley 10/1
Funny Cide 20/1
Giacomo 25/1
Harlington 35/1
Henny Hughes 75/1
Magna Graduate 25/1
Perfect Drift 12/1
Private Vow 75/1
Rockport Harbor 75/1
Sir Shackleton 40/1
Sorcerer's Stone 100/1
Stevie Wonderboy 20/1
Suave 25/1
Sun King 40/1
Super Frolic 60/1
Surf Cat 75/1
Tap Day 50/1
Wilko 60/1
Your Tent Or Mine 100/1

alan said...

Walter -

This is an absolute riot. Anyone who wants to bet Flower Alley at 10-1, or Borrego at 12-1, please contact me.

And Wilko?

Walter said...

...what most caught my eye was Fusaichi Samurai, who's conspicuous by his absence...i may go down there and ask to have him added on...i'd have very marginal interest @ 100/1...i realize that's stepping WAY out on a limb for a horse with only one career win (and only two career starts), but if the horse can stay healthy, i think he may be in for a big year...just a hunch, i really have nothing to back that up with...i'm also surprised that Deep Impact is unlisted, though according to my friend in Japan, he's probably more likely for the Arc than for the Breeders Cup...as for the horses who actually ARE listed, Rockport Harbor kinda caught my eye, as did Surf Cat...no interest on either one right now though...Suave and Magna Graduate seem like decent candidates (especially with the Breeders Cup @ Churchill this year), but 25/1 almost 11 months before the race???...no thanks...same deal with Commentator, who of course has an injury issue as well...i haven't heard anything about him since he hit the sidelines (Rockport Harbor has reportedly been training well)...as for the 2yo's, Stevie Wonderboy @ 20/1???...he hasn't even been two turns yet!...i know he's the current Derby favorite, but let's be real...incidentally, i give him no better Derby chance than i do Brother Derek or Your Tent Or Mine, who are listed here @ 75/1 and 100/1, respectively...myself, i've never hit a Classic future, though i've had some very nice tickets that ended up in the trash due to injuries (Southern Image @ 75/1 in 2004, Mineshaft @ 50/1 in 2003)...it's damn near impossible picking the race this far out, even if you're lucky enough to have the best horse...too many things can go wrong...that's why you need big odds if you're going to take a shot...same way with the Derby...hell, the FAVORITE (be it Stevie Wonderboy, or whomever) has no better than a 50/1 chance right now...that means if you were somehow able to bet Stevie Wonderboy @ 50/1, it wouldn't even be a good bet!...simply a marginal one...now, the boys in the Racing Form (especially that idiot Watchmaker), they'd tell you that you're getting HUGE value on Stevie @ 20/1, for no other reason than he's 8/1 around Las Vegas (i've seen him as low as 5/1)...so they assume 20/1 must be a good number...but there's a GIANT difference between "value", and "the best price in town"...one has nothing to do with the other...i always get a kick out of the articles they run in the Form during those pari-mutuel Derby pools, where they compare the pari-mutuel odds to those available in Vegas, and say "there's value here" or "there's value there"...those guys wouldn't know value if it bit them in the ass...so yeah Alan, when you see Flower Alley @ 10/1, or Borrego @ 12/1, it's a laugh riot...but that's Vegas for ya...

alan said...

I'd take a look at Don't Get Mad given the way he loves Churchill, but maybe at 200-1, not 20-1!

Great point on Stevie Wonderboy, and I totally agree with you about not rating him any higher than other contenders, especially ones that have run around two turns...hell, given the vagaries of horse racing these days, 20-1 might be a fair price for him to start in the Derby at this point.