Wide Open La Brea

- The final Grade 1 stakes race of 2005, the La Brea Stakes for three-year old fillies at seven furlongs, drew a big field with a lot of question marks. There are fillies coming off layoffs, cutting back in distance, turf runners trying dirt for the first time, a filly on a six race winning streak stepping up in class, a shipper from the East Coast; and there’s a good possibility of a sloppy track to boot.

Tough race to figure; there are reasons to be wary of most if not all of the contenders. Leave Me Alone was in the Eclipse running herself after dominating the Test, but followed her second to In the Gold in the Gazelle with a dull effort over the quirky Keeneland surface at 4-5. She is working lights out, man! And her trainer Eric Kruljac is good in the 60 day layoff range. If she runs back to the Test, she could certainly win, but she may need one, as she did when returning off a similar layoff in April, and she has speed to contend with inside of her.

Trickle of Gold (Formal Gold) has won those six straight races at Delaware and Laurel, dominating by a total of 45 lengths, including a win two back with a field co-high Beyer of 107. Jeremy Rose is in for the ride.

My Miss Storm Cat may also be mixed up in an early pace scenario. I watched her win in August off a year layoff on the Cal Racing site, and it was every bit as easy and impressive as Walter described here; and to think that runner-up Selvatica, who was coming off a similar layoff, went on to post a 105 Beyer in winnin her next race. The fact that she hasn’t appeared since that race indicates that Baffert is still nursing her through physical problems, but her spectacular 1:11 1/5 work on Monday (doesn't that seem awfully fast so soon before this race?) certainly indicates that she’s feeling good now.

Great Intentions may be able to sit a bit off the pace as Mike Hushion ships her cross country after taking the Top Flight at Belmont. But that was two months ago, and there’s always a question of how an east coaster will fare out west. Sharp Lisa hasn’t been out since April. Pussycat Doll is tough around two turns, but her only sprint try has been poor.

Then there are the two turf horses trying dirt for the first time – Three Degrees and Shining Energy. Nice grass horses! Byron King in the Form points out that four of the last six winners of this race preceded it with a turf effort; but I’m going to chalk that up as ‘too much information.’ That statistic doesn’t say whether those were also first-time dirt horses; last year’s winner Alphabet Kisses had already shown an affinity for both surfaces.

I think one can find one reason or another to stand against anyone you want to. My Miss Storm Cat is the one with the scariest untapped potential and I think she’d be worth a bet if she’s close to her 9-2 morning line odds. This is the kind of race that I would really hesitate to try and pick without seeing the odds. I’d be looking out for any of these that seem dull on the board, and shopping for anyone, such as, possibly, Trickle of Gold, who may be a bit overlaid. (That can be a subtle difference to be sure.) However, assuming that our plan to rid the house of all the teenagers by means of lies and deceipt in order to securely lock it down before going to a friend’s house upstate for New Year’s Eve ceremonies succeeds, I will hopefully already be in a distant state of consciousness that doesn’t include the thrill of pari-mutuel wagering. (And besides, they don’t get HRTV.)

So I’m just going to throw a few bucks on 30-1 morning line Thrilling Victory and hope for a lucky, if unlikely, end of the betting year. A Cal-bred took the Malibu at long odds, so why not lightning striking twice in this, the distaff counterpart to that race? There could certainly be a hot pace, especially if Hushion employs Mystic Chant as a rabbit for Great Intentions, and with many of these coming off layoffs, I can envision the scenario of it falling apart in the seventh furlong. Thrilling Victory is much improved for Jerry Hollendorfer, who has eight winners at Bay Meadows just since Christmas. This daughter of Event of the Year (Seattle Slew, to whom she’s inbred 2x4) has closed powerfully to win her last two at six furlongs against far weaker at Golden Gate, with two sub-12 second eighths to finish each of those wins. She’s won as far as a mile and a sixteenth, so she may benefit from the extra furlong here. She even has some class in her distaff family; her second dam is a three-quarter sister to General Meeting, and her third dam is a half to the dam of Carson City. And she's two-for-two in the slop.