Opening Day at Santa Anita

- Despite all my badmouthing of, and sarcasm directed to the overrated Wilko, if he really was to go off at his 6-1 morning line in the Malibu at Santa Anita on Monday, I might even bet him myself. After all, he was impressive in his six furlong return at Golden Gate, closing ground in explosive final eighth miles of 11 3/5 and 11 1/5. However, I’d be shocked if he went off anywhere near those odds, and he’s just the kind of horse that I find easy to go against. Each one of his races seems to preface that breakthrough that people have been waiting for since he won the 2004 Juvenile, but each time he comes up with another excuse, be it physical or bad racing luck. His spot in the 14 post may actually help given the long run down the backstretch from the seven furlong chute, but I’ll look elsewhere.

Greeley’s Galaxy picks a tough spot for his first try since the Preakness, and getting buried down in the two hole in this large field may not help matters. He has the speed he’ll need to hold a spot, and his facile win in the Illinois Derby in only his 4th lifetime start and first in a stake pointed out his class. He also gets the endorsement of reader Walter from Las Vegas. However, I must respectfully point out that he seemed to really blossom when he stretched out, and hasn’t won a sprint race on a dry track. Add in the fact that he figures to be poor value for a horse coming off such a lengthy layoff, and I don’t think he’ll be the one for me.

Attila’s Storm seems to be a legitimate morning line favorite at 5-2. He’s improved drastically since switching to the barn of Richard Schosberg three races ago, easily scoring triple digit Beyers in each race, disposing of Lost in the Fog in his 4th place Sprint, and taking the Fall Highweight Handicap at Aqueduct after battling for the lead all the way. Those had to be two taxing races, and he figures to be tested early once again by Greeley’s Galaxy, Proud Tower Too, and possibly Diligent Prospect as well. Plus, he’ll also have to last an extra furlong here, so it seems like a tough task for him.

Diligent Prospect may be able to sit just off the pace instead; he’s done so before, and a return to those tactics would serve him well here. This colt has obviously battled physical problems, but returns pretty quickly after fading badly in the Perryville at Keeneland. So perhaps he’s one of the many horses who just didn’t take to the Keeneland strip, and if so, he could improve here.

I’ll take a flyer with Thor’s Echo (Swiss Yodeler) here. Yes, his rail post is even worse than that of Greeley’s Galaxy, and it’s possible that he could also be involved in a contentious early pace. But in his last race, the Cal Cup Sprint Handicap, he retreated after breaking on top with new jockey Victor Espinoza, and then rallied extremely impressively while five and six wide on the turn, surged to the lead and held gamely while settling for third, less than a length back of the winner who worked out a rail trip. He’ll need a lot of racing luck from the rail, but I think he has a shot at would could be an attractive price.

- Buzzard’s Bay returns in the second, the first division of the Sir Beaufort, and he makes his turf debut. As I’ve mentioned previously, horses like this who get bet down in their first start on a different surface/distance/track condition, based on his/her figures earned or class displayed in its more familiar environment, are some of the best bet-againsts you can find, and Buzzard’s Bay would be a prime example if he goes off at or below his morning line of 3-1. You have some pretty accomplished turf runners here in Becrux, winner of a state-bred turf race at Del Mar, Brecon Beacon, third in the Grade 2 grassy Oak Tree Derby, and the imposing Chinese Dragon, a neck away from undefeated in five U.S. turf races, four of those stakes.

But if you’re looking for a longshot, take a look at 15-1 Warrior Song (Unbridled's Song). He makes his first start for trainer Michael Machowsky after going two for three for Bill Mott in New York. This will be his first stakes try, but he’s improved his figs with each grass race, and his 95 earned in his last puts him right there. Two races back, he finished second by just 1 ¾ to Cosmonaut, the 7-2 second choice in the second division of this stakes. He’s a half-brother to graded turf winner/sire Lasting Approval. There’s not much speed inside of him, so he should get good position and looks worth a flyer at a possible big mutuel.