RSS Feed for this Blog

Saturday, January 28, 2006

A Cause to Believe

- Off to Vermont early tomorrow morning, and with competition from three teenagers for the laptop, I can’t say when my next post will be. I’m hoping to be settled into our room in time to catch the third period of the Rangers game on NBC, which will be followed immediately by the telecast of the Sunshine Millions, which I haven’t been able to take a look at, at all.

Some quick notes before a few hours sleep:

- As Teaman pointed out in the comments section, another winner for Ian Wilkes at Gulfstream on Friday, with the same pattern of the last start being in late November at Churchill.

- Bailey had a winner on his only mount on the second to last day of his career. Shakespeare’s half-sister Shakespearesister (Chester House) closed stoutly for the win at 7-10. She’s run very well in the three races in which she’s come off the pace, while she tired on the lead in her last. More significantly perhaps is just the fact that she was able to come back at all just over a month after her last race. Perhaps she’s ready to stay healthy and blossom at age four like her brother did.

- I don’t usually select favorites here, but Wild Jam (5-2 morning line fave) looks awfully good, I think, in Saturday’s Paumonok at the Big A. He was impressive winning the Brutally Frank last-to-first earlier this month, under Ramon Dominguez for the first time. He seemed to get a little mixed up changing leads, but once he got settled, he blew by the field in a final eighth of :11 4/5. He loves the inner track, and there seems to be sufficient pace to set up another late run. It’s a competitive race, so perhaps he’ll be a fair price. Pletcher has Bishop Court Hill, against whom I wouldn’t be afraid to take a stand if he takes a lot of money.

- I love Cause to Believe (Maria’s Mon) in the El Camino Real Derby on Sunday. A.P. Warrior figures to get overbet; I guess you can’t be too harsh on him for his 4th in the G1 Hollywood Futurity, but he looks like he could be overrated. His figs make him just another competitor here, really, though they do show an improving pattern. Cause to Believe stretches out after running second to Too Much Bling at six furlongs in the San Miguel. He has a nice pattern of improving figs and is one-for-one around two turns. Nice breeding; his second dam is G1 winner Cuddles, and she’s the dam of Northern Afleet and Tap To Music. I think he’ll love the stretchout and being trained by Jerry Hollendorfer doesn’t hurt either.

I’m a little afraid of Wanna Runner getting loose on the lead. He’s proven he likes two turns and faces lesser here. Bold Chieftain has shown speed in his two wet track tries, out of three career starts, and has a Tomlinson number of 397. There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday, so expect him to show speed if the track is wet. Otherwise, who knows? Acolyte (Victory Gallop) tries two turns for the first time, and could be worth following down the road.

6 Comments:

Walter said...

...if you guys feel like taking a shot on a big price, you may want to give Corazondelcampeon a try...if i said i had a good report on him, well, that'd be putting it mildly...suffice to say i'm expecting an improved effort...i think the race sets up for him too, because i expect Dinner Magic to run Da Stoops into the ground, and Dinner Magic himself may get a little leg-weary after doing the dirty work up front...good chance the race could fall apart and produce an off-the-pace winner...hopefully one with a long name, and an even longer price... 8^)

thecalicocat said...

Kennebunkport today at Oaklawn; following in the footsteps of Rockport Harbor and Round Pond for Servis.

Walter said...

...well, Corazondelcampeon went off @ 30/1, and seemed to be moving pretty well down the backstretch (aside from being a bit rank early)...he moved up to take second from Dinner Magic around the turn, and at that point i thought he was probably gonna run second (Da Stoops was long gone for the win)...but i guess he was out of gas from laying too close to Dinner Magic and Da Stoops early, as the fractions were lightning-quick...and boy, was i wrong about Dinner Magic...i was certain that he would out-foot Da Stoops for the lead, and would burn that one to a crisp...it truned out just the opposite, with Da Stoops making the lead and running Dinner Magic ragged...the only explanation i can offer is that Dinner Magic took the blinkers off, and therefore didn't show as much speed as normal...and i probably underestimated Da Stoops a little...what a performance from that one, absolutely top-notch...

...as for these pari-mutuel furtures, i was looking at perhaps betting Balance today before the pols close, but it looks like she's dropped to 17/1 as of this writing...i think i'm losing interest in that...the Derby "field" is 7/2 however, and i DO like that price...perhaps i'll do something there...

Teaman said...

Great call in the El Camino
Alan! Hope you scored some coin. $7.40 doesn't seem that bad a price at all considering the edges you pointed out. I noticed he ran in larger fields compared to the others. Do you give much weight to the total number of horses in the fields when checking the past perfs. of younger horses??

Your opinion of A P Warrior maybe being overated is noteworthy. I didn't see the race, but with the fact he didn't have to face Brother Derek or Stevie W. this time..I surely thought he'd be able to catch a piece of the Exacta. But not even on the board??!! Sheeesh.

Walter said...

...indeed Alan, great call on Cause to Believe...looks like he ran a real nice one, and i noted that Baze and Hollendorfer had some very flattering things to say about him after the race...Hollendorfer apparently went so far as say Cause to Believe "ranks among his all-time best Derby prospects"...well, i doubt he's in the same ballpark with Event of the Year (that one was a monster), but i'll defer to Jerry on this one because i really haven't seen this horse in action...i missed the El Camino Real today, and i was too busy watching Dinner Magic in the Sam Miguel...incidentally, today's result seems to flatter Too Much Bling...i wonder if Baffert will be stretching that out anytime soon...thought i heard something about the 7-furlong San Vicente for that one, but we'll see...

...also of note along the Derby Trail...it looks like Sorcerer's Stone breezed 3 panels down in Florida, i believe that's his first time out since ankle surgery...

Walter said...

...just wondering, how did First Samurai go favored in the pari-mutuel futures???...he's yet to race around two turns, while Brother Derek is a 3-time graded stakes winner around two turns...shouldn't Brother Derek have gone favored?...seems like some sort of East Coast bias or something...also note that Stevie Wonderboy was lower than Brother Derek, and Brother Derek just beat him soundly a couple of weeks ago...people are weird, i'll never figure them out...