A Cause to Believe

- Off to Vermont early tomorrow morning, and with competition from three teenagers for the laptop, I can’t say when my next post will be. I’m hoping to be settled into our room in time to catch the third period of the Rangers game on NBC, which will be followed immediately by the telecast of the Sunshine Millions, which I haven’t been able to take a look at, at all.

Some quick notes before a few hours sleep:

- As Teaman pointed out in the comments section, another winner for Ian Wilkes at Gulfstream on Friday, with the same pattern of the last start being in late November at Churchill.

- Bailey had a winner on his only mount on the second to last day of his career. Shakespeare’s half-sister Shakespearesister (Chester House) closed stoutly for the win at 7-10. She’s run very well in the three races in which she’s come off the pace, while she tired on the lead in her last. More significantly perhaps is just the fact that she was able to come back at all just over a month after her last race. Perhaps she’s ready to stay healthy and blossom at age four like her brother did.

- I don’t usually select favorites here, but Wild Jam (5-2 morning line fave) looks awfully good, I think, in Saturday’s Paumonok at the Big A. He was impressive winning the Brutally Frank last-to-first earlier this month, under Ramon Dominguez for the first time. He seemed to get a little mixed up changing leads, but once he got settled, he blew by the field in a final eighth of :11 4/5. He loves the inner track, and there seems to be sufficient pace to set up another late run. It’s a competitive race, so perhaps he’ll be a fair price. Pletcher has Bishop Court Hill, against whom I wouldn’t be afraid to take a stand if he takes a lot of money.

- I love Cause to Believe (Maria’s Mon) in the El Camino Real Derby on Sunday. A.P. Warrior figures to get overbet; I guess you can’t be too harsh on him for his 4th in the G1 Hollywood Futurity, but he looks like he could be overrated. His figs make him just another competitor here, really, though they do show an improving pattern. Cause to Believe stretches out after running second to Too Much Bling at six furlongs in the San Miguel. He has a nice pattern of improving figs and is one-for-one around two turns. Nice breeding; his second dam is G1 winner Cuddles, and she’s the dam of Northern Afleet and Tap To Music. I think he’ll love the stretchout and being trained by Jerry Hollendorfer doesn’t hurt either.

I’m a little afraid of Wanna Runner getting loose on the lead. He’s proven he likes two turns and faces lesser here. Bold Chieftain has shown speed in his two wet track tries, out of three career starts, and has a Tomlinson number of 397. There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday, so expect him to show speed if the track is wet. Otherwise, who knows? Acolyte (Victory Gallop) tries two turns for the first time, and could be worth following down the road.