RSS Feed for this Blog

Friday, January 06, 2006

Gulfstream Pick 3

- I’m going to try the Pick 3 at Gulfstream that starts with the Aventura. I was going to do the Pick 4, but I feel like I’d have to go at least five deep in the 10th and it’s too expensive for me to commit myself to here, because if I said it and then wimped out on it and it came in, you wouldn’t see me back here until around Preakness time. Besides, I want to finish with a bang with a single in the 9th.

7TH (Aventura) – I’ll be rooting for longshots Itsallboutthechase and Dixie Swinger, but will use two others who will be shorter prices. A second look at Catcominatcha’s win in the Iroqouis in which he closed into a slow closing half shows that he ran very fast to keep close to the leaders, and then was game in coming through between horses and nipping High Cotton. Though beaten soundly by that one in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he turns back here to one turn and I think he’ll be tough. And I’m also using Saint Daimon, in large part because I feel a bit freer to spend more having abandoned the idea of the Pick 4; but he's working really well despite what Jerkins said about the last one maybe being too fast. He may be trying to fool us, after all.

8th – I’ll use four of them here – dropdowns Sugar Booger, She Can Punch, and Holden Champagne, and move-up Lady Hartwood, who I could make an elaborate too-much-information kind of case to go against, but I’m not going to leave him out.

9th – The Mr. Prospector Handicap is, to me, one of those races the guys on TVG talk about in which you could go six deep, or just say fuck it and single the one you really like. So I’m going for Nightmare Affair. He’s coming off a layoff since late August, but his workouts are very (too?) fast, and there could be plenty of pace to set up his late run. He’s shows an 0 for 8 at Gulfstream, but had two seconds and a third in four starts over the new main track here last year. He showed nice improvement over the summer at Calder and seems to have found a niche at six furlongs after having run in routes earlier in his career.

So there it is, just 16 combos. I’m cautiously optimistic that I will get to the 9th alive and though I’m worried about the layoff of Nightmare Affair, he looks like a live one at what could be a pretty good will pay. His trainer Manual Azupar even shows, on Formulator, two wins off layoffs of 132 and 133 days at Gulfstream in 2004, around the same length of this rest. Go baby go!

- The Head Chef just called (it's 10:30 P.M. Friday night); she and Eileen are standing right in front of the Gulfstream main track, on the apron, off to the side of the clubhouse. She said there's some kind of shed there with a bar, and that there's a decent enough sized apron in front of the clubhouse. So maybe I should lighten up and just get on the first plane out of LaGuardia tomorrow.

12 Comments:

thecalicocat said...

Norfield for the Pick 4?

alan said...

Yeah he does look good, but so do a few others including Pletcher's other entry in the race who gets Velasquez. I'm also a scaredy-cat over Cat's On A Prowl.

Teaman said...

Best of luck to you in your pk-3 !! I get a sense that if you succeed,there might be one more patron @ Gulfstrem on Sunday. Better bring a jacket tho..
One of the hosts of my favorite radio show (At the Races + Beyond) on Sirius was complaining how "cold" it was going to be today.
In the LOW 60's !!
If it was 60 right now here (in R I) I'd be in shorts + T-shirt raking leaves that just resurfaced from the melted snow!

I won't be messing with your pk-3..but I did gain some insight that I will use in hopes of popping a fat EX. The card is a little too deep for me today. I think my $100 allotment for the day would be better spent on the Redskins. I'm just "calling-in" a few EX's. Best of luck today.

I did manage one Win Friday. I've got a T-shirt coming for answering a trivia ? on ATR+B. It was multi-choice and I had a 4-1 shot at being right and lucked out. Here's the question.
What age was the oldest mare to produce a live foal??? It was back in the 1930's I believe. Was it..
35..37..42..45 yrs.old? I couldn't believe it could be ANY of those..but they were reading the facts so I believed to be true.

Walter said...

...two plays today, Glory Pass (7/2 ml) in the 4th, and Frost Point (8/1 ml) in the 9th...Glory Pass has been working very well and appears to be a good one...i'd prefer the race weren't on the grass, but Mandella must have his reasons for entering here...Frost Point, i have a very nice report on his Dec. 21 drill, and he should definitely outrun his odds (though i expect he'll get bet down)...the favorite here, Straightandstrong, looks tough if he can repeat his last effort, but he's also 0-for-8 and certainly not a world-beater...i'll take a stand with Frost Point...

...coupla points of interest...Caddymaster, who i was pimping on Nov. 17 before he flamed out @ odds of 1/5, is entered in today's second...i have another good report on him, and he doesn't appear to have much to beat today, but he'l likely get pounded at the windsows again and i'm not feeling too confident after his previous debacle...i do expect him to win, but i doubt i'll be backing him...in today's 3rd, Sabatini returns from a nice third-place effort in the Hollywood Starlet to meet a seemingly overmatched crew here...i have a very nice report on her since last ran, and i know she's a good one, but her co-favorite Sweet Fourty has been scratched (also resulting in a 6-horse field), so you can say goodbye to any value...i'm also a bit concerned by her apparent lack of early speed, which might turn into a problem should Itty Bitty Pretty be given too much of a head-start...can't see any way i'll be playing this one unless i can somehow get 2/1 on the exacta box, which seems very unlikely...

...also, i came across some trainer quotes regarding Stevie Wonderboy and the Baffert maiden Point of Impact, which i found interesting...here's the link for those interested...

http://www.santaanita.com/news/sn.php?f=stablenotesforjan52006byedgolden

Walter said...

...well, Glory Pass got hammered down to 9/5 odds late, good for me because it allowed me to pass on a loser...navigating the downhill turf course is tough enough for any horse, let alone a first-time starter in a 12-horse field...turns out he showed ZERO speed on the grass, and dropped back to trail the field...he was taken very wide across the dirt and into the lane, and showed a nice kick, but it was too little, too late...maybe back on the dirt for start number two???...as for Frost Point, he ran a nice second @ 5/1...just happened to get outrun by the 4/5 favorite Straightandstrong...unfortunately, i bet him only to win...no place bet, no backup exacta...rookie move on my part, as i considered Straightandstrong the only real threat...moving on, Caddymaster ran to his pre-debut workouts by annihilating the Race 2 field (at odds-on, of course)...maybe he just doesn't care for Hollywood?...onward and upward for that one, at least @ Santa Anita...in the Santa Ysabel, the hot 2/5 favorite Sabatini was closer to the pace than expected, probably due to the snail-like pace...for whatever reason, she failed to kick on in the lane, while Itty Bitty Pretty used the soft pace to her advantage, having TONS left in the tank and opening up instantly as soon as P-Val shook the reins at her turning for home...the IBP-Sabatini exacta returned $9 for abuck, but it was still a non-play...reason being, it was only paying $3 the other way, meaning if you played $75 the short way and $25 the long way, you got back $225 for your hundy...that's only 6/5, no thanks...could've taken a shot with Itty Bitty Pretty for the win @ 9/2, and maybe i should have, but Sabatini looked a little too imposing...i also passed on the Caddymaster/IBP double, which paid $28 on a two dollar bet....that was probably a mistake...damn, betting horses can be frustrating, can't it???...i feel like i was all over these races today, handicapped them very well...and yet, i still lost a unit...

...one thing i touched on briefly, straight win betting vs. win/place...where do you guys stand on this subject?...you'll certainly cash more tickets going win/place, but long-term i'm pretty sure you'll cost yourself money...take Frost Point for example...he DID run second, paying $5.20 to place (behind the big favorite)...if you had gone $50 win/place instead of $100 win, you'd have collected $130, instead of collecting zero...so in this example, you'd be $130 to the good...but let's say Frost Point wins @ 5/1, paying $12.00 and $5.20...the $100 win bet would return $600, while $50 win/place would return $430...you see what i'm saying?...the extra $170 more than covers for the $130...so if you bet this same race twice, you'd end up with an extra $40 going win-only, even though you'd cash only once instead of twice...so basically, longer losing streaks, but more money returened in the long term...of course, if Frost Point had run second to somebody OTHER than the favorite, the place price would've been higher, cutting into that $40...on the other hand, it's not like every horse i bet is 5/1...those place prices can get pretty tiny when you're looking at a 2/1 shot...the way i've BEEN doing it, i'd generally just bet to win up to 7/2, then start going win/place around 4/1 and higher...but i really feel i've been costing myself money (Totally Gone last weekend makes a fine example)...so of course, as soon as i go win-only, Notre Dame and Frost Point each run second, @ 6/1 and 5/1 respectively...i think i'm gonna start keeping seperate records, and total up the results in a year or two...but what to do in the meantime???...i think i'm gonna stick with win-only...the only thing that scares me is, when i start to run cold, my horses start running second over and over again...that's always been the case with me, for whatever reason...which is kinda why i started going win/place to begin with...does anyone know of a database or something where they've gone over this stuff???...i could really use some help in this regard...lemme know if you have any thoughts on this subject, or know somebody that has some insight...

Teaman said...

Very well writen post to your win/place dilemma Walt. My thought on the subject..from a "bare-ass rookie" perspetive with no stats to back it up.
Stick with the Win plays. You know you're picking the right horses for the right reasons and your good at it.
I sympathize with your frustration of seeing your top picks run 2nd. But isn't that just "One of those things" that will run it's course in due time?? You know as soon as you start going 1 unit W and 1 unit place instead of 2 units Win only... you'll probably hit a run of $10.00 winners w/ $5.00 or so Place payoffs and will be saying "If I stuck to my game,I'd have a full 2 units on the Win" You know your stuff..if your a Win player..play to Win. If it was me in your situation (again..consider the source) in a run of 2nd-itis, I'd consider maybe 1 1/2 units on my Win plays and the other 1/2 unit in the exacta pool. If your top choice gets beat by the chalk or one of the others you were worried about you might get a minor EX. that should more than make up whatever place price you missed. If your top choice Wins (at the better odds/or whatever parameters you set for yourself with your Win bets) you'll still have a 1 1/2 unit on Win and should get a better EX if say the chalk got 2nd. Naturally there's no easy answer to this dilemma we all face from time to time.
You (or maybe Alan) told me early on "Stick with what you do best and are most comfortable with" Be it Win bets, EX boxes, Tris, Mdn clmg races, Grade 1,2,3's, whatever. It was great advise!
If you start trying to cover all the possibilities, you'll probably end up in the poorhouse instead of the penthouse. Just to relate my "tale of woe" in the Hals Hope @ GP Sat. Seek Gold was my top choice, On Thin Ice my sentimental chioce (off the Bomb EX he brought me in the Fayette @ Keen 10/29) and Nigon. I played a $2 EX Box 2-5-7 and like a dueche tossed in a 1-5..although I'd already tossed Philantropist out Fri. when I 'cap'd the race. I knew that On Thin Ice was 5-1..but I'm a EX player. It's where my best success has been..it's what I'm sticking with. I really thought On Thin Ice's race on 10/29 was one of those "miracle" runs and didn't think he'd repeat it. Although it WAS a Thrilling stretch dual with Alumni Hall @ 39-1..I didn't think he'd do it again. Which brings up a thought.
If I was a "Win only" player only on 10/29..and got nosed out liking Alumni Hall also..I'd have been crying WAY louder that I missed the FAT Ex than the place $$$. Again..that's me. As it was yesterday,
I got 1st + 3rd on my EX bet and Thin Ice paid $12.60. NO $$$ for T-Man.. Sure,I was miffed a bit and played a little "woulda shoulda coulda" with myself, but you know what?? I just brushed it off by saying "I can't play everything" I made my EX. picks on Friday, and stuck to my guns and I'll be better off in the long run for it. (The extra 1-5 WAS a moron move I admit it.. learning experience)
So stick to your guns Walt..Your ponies will be in the Winners circle in no time. Just ride it out. Maybe if you can go back and see all your Win pks. that got 2nd..and if the ones that beat you were ones you would have used in a EX. Compare the EX payoffs you would have cashed with the place payoffs you missed, and see if that sheds any light on your situation. Just a thought.

Off topic..and at the risk of sounding like a "Chirpper" Did anyone see my Redskins "chirp" I posted Thurs? I believe I put it up on Alans Weds. blog.
Check out my predicted score...:)
I hope someone out there may have considered the Skins. I doubt I'll ever nail another chirp like that again as long as I live.

davidrex said...

place and show bets..and sometimes early double wagers are as antiquated as most odds boards..showing what 2nd and 3rd will pay, even tho the pools for other wagers are much larger, is a huge waste of technology or lack thereof.
maybe more people would reappear on the apron if info were available..not

Walter said...

...Led Zeppelin is antiquated...does that mean they suck???...and who mentioned tracks showing place/show prices?...it's not feasible anyway, as your place price is contingent upon which horse you run in with...for instance, when Totally Gone won @ $13.40 last week, the place price was $8.00, due to a 50/1 shot running second...but if Point of Impact had run second, you're probably looking @ $6.00 or less...show betting?...i'm not gonna waste my time or money, it's pointless...

Walter said...

...looks like we have some overlays for Sunday, guys...in Race 1, i've gotta play #5 Glassy at her current 9/2 odds (24 minutes to post...turf route aren't forte, by any means, but i'm very familiar with Glassy, and i know she's gonna run well here...looks like an evenly-matched field, but Glassy has gotta be at least the equal of anyone in here (how did they come up with that 8/1 morning line?)...her main problem is a tendency to hang a little once she makes the lead...but i'm guessing she probably WILL make the lead at some point in the stretch...gotta take that 9/2...in the 4th, i'll very likely be on Domestic Dispersal...i backed that one in his debut, and he's she's a stone-cold runner...9/2 morning line???...say thank you to the Beyer Boys for that number...in the San Miguel, wow, the race has come up very tough, but how the hell is Dinner Magic 10/1 on the morning line???...he's absolutely a prime contender, and according to my reports, he's going real well right now...not sure i'll be backing him today, but if he's 10/1 (or anywhere close) at post time, then my decision is made for me...good luck today, guys...

Walter said...

...sorry for the typos there...and Domestic Dispersal goes in Race 5, not Race 4...my bad...

Walter said...

...okay, Domestic Dispersal has been scratched..nevermind... 8^P

...coupla points of interest...in today's 4th, the highly-regarded Mandella filly A.P. Surprise (a 1/2 sister to Halfbridled) comes into this race having worked 7 furlongs head-up with One Union, who's entered in today's San Miguel...also in the San Miguel, Peace Chant (a son of Safely Kept by War Chant) comes into the race having worked head-up with multiple stakes winner El Roblar...have a look-see...

PEACE CHANT (Dec 30, 113.2)

Breezed with El Roblar (113.2) looking strong and professional, plenty left late in 49.0, 113.2. Clearly has a very bright future. Grade B

...here's the scoop on the afore-mentioned Dinner Magic...take note that he's returning to Santa Anita (the scene of his resounding 108.4 maiden win), and also that he's being ridden by Santiago (who was aboard for that race)...

DINNER MAGIC (Jan 4, 48.4)

Sharp breeze over the wet track, last 3 in 35.0 with Jauragei sitting still late. Really glided over the off surface. Grade B

DINNER MAGIC (Dec 27, 100.1)

On edge here in a faster than given 23.4, 59.1 finishing fast without much ask, full stride late for Koriner. Speedy sort is going real well. Grade A-

Walter said...

...DAMN...Dinner Magic (roughly 20/1) out-footed them early and had about a length on the field turning for home, but couldn't withstand the explosive move turned in by Too Much Bling, who looked SENSATIONAL in victory...Dinner Magic stuck to his task well enough, and i thought he might hold on for second (yes, i did bet him to place), but he tired just a bit at the end and couldn't hold of the late-runners...it would've been a helluva nice score, but win or lose, i'm happy with my bet...it's not often you get 20/1 on a horse like Dinner Magic...for the day, i dropped another three-quarters of a unit...yuck...