Eliminating the Favorites

- On The Works, Gary Stevens argued with Frank Lyons and Tom Amoss about Brother Derek’s last work on April 24 at Santa Anita. Alex Solis had him in hand behind a workmate, making no attempt to pass him before the finish line. Amoss wondered aloud what the point of that was, and, indeed whether Brother Derek (Benchmark) could have passed the other horse even if he’d tried. He felt that it was “not the right kind of work.” Stevens countered that it was merely a maintenance work to teach him to rate and get dirt in the face. Amoss asked sarcastically and a little testily if they were now going to teach the horse to rate a week before the Derby? Lyons said it "wasn’t the greatest of ideas," wondering how sitting behind one horse is going to prepare him for what he’ll face in the 20 horse field.

I think Brother Derek is the least likely of the four top choices to be able to adapt the way any of them will have to in order to win. Sweetnorthernsaint has experienced some adversity and has shown ability to relax early. Barbaro overcame the outside post at Gulfstream and had to fight to beat Sharp Humor. Lawyer Ron has show versatility. Brother Derek is a horse who wants the lead - watching the Santa Catalina again on the Cal Racing site, I saw Alex Solis doing everything he could to restrain his colt just off Latent Heat - and there seems little doubt that he’s going to either be close to the fastest pace he’s ever faced, or much further behind than he’s been since his first race. (I don’t think his close in his debut means anything at this point; I’ve noticed that before, that you’ll see a horse close in a short debut sprint, and then become a confirmed early speed type. Bellamy Road is one example that comes to mind.)

Brother Derek is the consensus post-time favorite. I’d be surprised, but not shocked if he’s not. You do see unexpected developments on the tote board there sometimes. I think he’s a real nice horse, but in this Derby, as the probably favorite, he’s one I have to stand completely against. I’ll not use him anywhere on my tickets.

Mike Welsch of the Form tabbed Barbaro (Dynamormer) as the work of the day, as he zipped a half in 46 seconds. On The Works, they spoke about how hard he hits the ground, and Amoss noted that his high action was suitable for the turf. Lyons said that his action is different on the grass. His preparation – one race in 13 weeks – may be unorthodox, but everything has gone according to plan. Michael Matz said: "We've been lucky. Nothing (in his training) has wavered at all. He hasn't missed any works." [Bloodhorse]

But if you look at his running lines, there’s not a number to be found higher than 2; so he’s another horse that faces the same dilemma as Brother Derek. This doesn’t mean that he can’t be good enough to overcome, but is it worth betting him as the 2nd or 3rd choice? So while I won’t say he won’t be anywhere on my tickets, he’s definitely not going to be on top.

Lawyer Ron’s workout was the most visually impressive one to me. Talk about “visibly quickening” in the stretch, he seemed to take off like a rocket when John McKee shook him up mid-stretch. Then he eased up on him coming to wire, still completing the five furlongs in 58.90. Gary Stevens called it an “awesome workout,” and Lyons noted that “he went fast, and then he went faster.” Tom Amoss said that he galloped out another five eighths after the wire – “a big, big, nice move for a horse that’s going to be a big factor on Derby day.”

The big question to many on Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr) is, of course, the fact that his Beyer figs are significantly below the others. Hardcore Beyer guys like Dick Jerardi are not going to back this horse because of the figs. I’m usually wrong when I take a stand against the Beyers, but fortunately I have other reasons for betting against him. For one thing, again, he won’t be the right price in a race in which, in my opinion, value absolutely demands and requires that I bet a horse or horses at a big price. But seeing that he looked so uncomfortable in the Arkansas Derby when he was faced with some traffic, what’s going to happen in the Derby, especially if he gets stuck with a post towards the inside? I can see him being in the lead at some point after the speedballs fold, but I wonder if McKee will be able to save enough for the stretch run. So, like Barbaro, I’m not counting him out, but if he wins, I’ll lose.

So there you go; I’ve eliminated, from at least the top spot, the three horses expected to top the betting, zap. (Not so for Sweetnorthernsaint.) Given the pace scenario I expect, it seems easy to do so. In fact, it seems far too easy. I could certainly be wrong; maybe I’m too Giacomotized here. But I won’t have any regrets if I am; I think it’s the right approach and the right way to bet the race. Now, if I can only come up with the winner...