- If you missed it the other day, Walter was kind enough to put up some head-to-head propositions that he saw; this even before the post position draw, which will obviously change things.
A.P. Warrior -110Interesting that this linemaker has Lawyer Ron favored over Brother Derek here, isn't it? I've read a lot more people questioning the latter's preparation for the race given the short fields he's faced of late. Here's ESPN.com's Jay Cronley, as smug as usual:
Bob and John -125
Private Vow +105
Keyed Entry +125
Cause to Believe -145
Brother Derek EVEN
Lawyer Ron -120
Bluegrass Cat -150
Sharp Humor +130
Sinister Minister +120
Deputy Glitters +115
Storm Treasure +110
Keyed Entry -130
The problem with a monster Beyer is that it can come from a four-and-a-half horse field like the recent Santa Anita Derby.Would anyone be shocked if Lawyer Ron is the favorite? Or will the Beyer figs prevail, even on a day on which many once-a-year bettors are participating?
So few horses run in the big three-year old races out west, you halfway expect the announcer to say at the start: "He's off."
Take a big Beyer from a four-and-a-half horse race (a maiden ran in the Santa Anita Derby), and place it in post position 18 in a 20-horse field, the big Beyer and a quarter will get you a flip and that's about it.
Whoever made these odds is obviously figuring on what seems to be the obvious suicidal pace scenario; made more so by Dale Romans' comments about Sharp Humor: "I'm planning on sending him....I don't know how good Sinister Minister came out of his race (in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes-I), but I'm not going to try to change our horse's style of running and try to teach him to come from behind." [Bloodhorse] Thus, you have Steppenwolfer as a solid favorite over Sinister Minister; likewise, Cause To Believe over Keyed Entry and Bluegrass Cat over Sharp Humor. I think so little of Bluegrass Cat these days that I'd be tempted to take the 13-10 on Sharp Humor there.
My favorites of these? Bob and John over Private Vow and Sweetnorthernsaint over Barbaro. Forget the pace scenario in these cases, I just think my choices are the better horses.
- If there are any readers in Louisville who are familiar with the local bar/pub scene, I'd appreciate it if you could email me; I'm looking for some information for an article I'm working on. Thanks.