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Friday, April 14, 2006

Notes - Apr 14

- Not only was Beautiful Venture indeed the first winner for Came Home at Keeneland yesterday, it was the freshman’s sire first starter. And according to BRIS’ Keeneland Daily Notebook, she unseated rider Mark Guidry before the race began and had to be run down by the outriders. Also noted is was Minister’s Bid's monster debut, and that he made mincemeat of the Keeneland speed bias.

- Great news from New Orleans, as the Fair Grounds has applied for an 81-day meeting beginning on Thanksgiving day.

- So, word comes that Bill Turner still thinks that Highland Cat can run on the dirt, and he wants to drop him into a $35,000 maiden claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs. Now, who am I to argue with an experienced horseman like Turner…..I mean, what do I know? But have you seen any evidence that this horse can run on the dirt? He shows no speed, seems to shy away from getting hit in the face, and has failed going short and long. He did have that rally for third in his debut, and that was at 6 1/2 furlongs; but note that he actually lost ground in the stretch to winner Great Point. And if he’s been so far back in his subsequent route tries, how is he going to be close enough in a sprint, even at a lower level? I’m not very happy with this development; the expenses are piling up and time's a-wasting. I prefer the prior plan of giving him a try on the grass, and then, if there’s nothing doing, sending him to some slots state where perhaps he can compete.

And meanwhile, that “runningest thing” Mum’s the Word, who we sold last year, today registered a bullet half mile (of 23) in 47.57 seconds. Oh man!

7 Comments:

Anonymous said...

And WHY EXACTLY did we sell the daughter of a KENTUCKY DERBY winner??? and keep the stiff Highland Cat???

Why Turner doesn't try the dirt??? Cause he knows this beast can't run and his days training HC are soon to be over. He can get another 1 month fees racing one more time on the dirt THEN try the turf.

FINGER LICKS TIME FOR HC

Anonymous said...

Not only did we keep HC, we bought out the half-partner also!

Walter said...

...i hate to say it, but i think Anonymous might be onto something there...

...regarding Came Home, there was another Came Home filly entered the other day, but she was scratched...i believe her name was She Came Home, and she caught my eye because she was out of the quick mare Show Me The Stage...incidentally, this filly has run second to Sanibel Storm in that one's impressive Aiken trial...

...i came across some Derby props yesterday, which i thpought was kinda strange because it's a little early for those...anyway, here they are...

THE SADDLECLOTH NUMBER OF THE 2006 DERBY WINNER

Odd -120
Even -110

THE RUN TIME OF THE 2006 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER

Over 2:02.2 +110
Under 2:02.2 -140

(i was a bit confused as to whether that's 2:02 1/5 or 2:02 2/5. i'm assuming it's the former, but i haven't confirmed that yet.)

THE WINNING MUTUEL PRICE OF THE 2006 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER

Over $17.70 -160
Under $17.70 +130

THE 2006 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER WILL ALSO WIN THE 2006 PREAKNESS?

Yes +300
No -400

THE 2006 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER WILL ALSO WIN THE 2006 BELMONT?

Yes +700
No -1000

THE 2006 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER ALSO WINS THE 2006 PREAKNESS & BELMONT?

Yes +1000
No -1500

Walter said...

...i just came across this quote from Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford, in an article dated April 11...

"Discreet Cat is in very good order. A decision on where he goes next will be made shortly."

alan said...

Yeah, tomorrow is supposed to be the big day regarding Discreet Cat. Any prop bets on whether he comes? I'm sure you could get a bet down in the UK. I say he's coming for sure.

I love some of those prop bets on the Derby/Triple Crown races. Don't know how they came up with $17.70 as the mutuel over/under. This strikes at our disagreement over Brother Derek, but in a 20 horse field, one will probably have some pretty decent horses in the over package if you don't like him.

Walter said...

...the "under $17.70" on the mutuel price @ +130 immediately caught my eye, but afyter thinking about it for a few minutes, i'm not sure it's that great a deal...it basically encompasses every horse that goes off @ 7/1 or less, but how many of those will there be???...Brother Derek for certain, but after that who knows?...Sweetnorthernsaint, Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, and Discreet Cat (if he comes), could all conceivably go off at 7/1 or less, but ALL of them certainly won't, and it's hard to say which ones will...in a 20-horse field, it's hard to see 4 or 5 horses all going off under 7/1...a lot will depend on Lawyer Ron's performance tomorrow, and and of course the Bluegrass MIGHT produce an under 7/1 horse, though i doubt it...for the sake of argument, let's just say that 3 horses go off @ under 7/1 (though the number could possibly be as low as 2)...you're basically getting a 3-horse entry @ 6/5, and i just don't see a lot of value there, not in a race like the Derby...it it becomes a 2-horse entry, you're screwed...you can undoubtedly get better than 6/5 just by making your own Brother Derek/whomever entry...if you do end up getting a 4-horse entry, there's probably some value there, but there's no guarantee that'll happen...just my two cents on the matter...no doubt i'll have a stronger opinion after i see what happens tomorrow...

...the prop i was most intersted in was the "Under 2:02.2" @ -140...quite often they soup the track up on Derby Day, and 2:02.2 is pretty attainable top begin with...plus, i think there are some good horses competing this year (particularly if Discreet Cat shows up)...they have this prop every year, and i usually don't do anything with it until race day and i check the times of the first couple of races, but there are some sharp people here in Vegas and the last couple of years when i've gone down there to bet, someone had beaten me to it and the line on the under was up to -200 or so...i may bet a little early this year, pending the weather forecast...

alan said...

I looked back at last year's chart, and four horses were 7-1 or less. Bandini was 6.80-1, High Fly was 7.10, Afleet Alex 4.50, and Bellamy Road 2.60. The next highest was Noble Causeway, at 12.30. Depending on what happens tomorrow, if Lawyer Ron runs big, but so do one or two of the Bluegrass horses, this year's race could be more wide open. Someone, possibly Sweetnorthernsaint and definitely Bob and John, is going to be a very sweet price for those so inclined.