- Nick Mordin is a British handicapper and author, and he has a website in which he peddles his selections for a modest fee. I obtained a copy of his picks and commentary for the Breeders Cup, and it's quite fascinating and opinionated. It's paid content and I do respect that, so I'm just going to reprint a brief excerpt, but I thought you'd find this well worth the read, whether you agree or not.
[Bernardini's] going to have to withstand a challenge from a horse (Invasor) that can make two big moves in a race and then have enough left to run like crazy all the way through the final furlong, a horse that has the speed and stamina to post seriously fast times at every distance from five furlongs to a mile and a half.Mordin feels that Invasor's Whitney was "one of the most impressive displays I've ever seen from a racehorse." He cites his recovery from the stumble at the start to grab the lead in the stretch, and his ability to, as he saw it, actually accelerate at the end in order to hold off Sun King; last eighth in 12 2/5.
Actually I think Invasor will annihilate the Classic field and that Bernardini won't even run second. These days thoroughbreds in general and American ones in particular are so speedily bred that long races really take it out of them, especially when they're only three years of age. It's asking an awful lot to expect one to produce peak performances both in May and then again right at the end of the year at such distances. Sure Sunday Silence, Unbridled and AP Indy all won U.S. classics in the same year that they took this race. But that was way back in 1989, 1990 and 1992 when the breed had far more stamina than it does now. Since then the twelve American Classic winners that have run in the..Classic as three year olds have all lost. The last eight didn't even reach the first three. I wouldn't want to bet on Bernardini ending that particular losing sequence.
Wow, that's a different opinion than we've been hearing around here for sure. I know that I and some others (but not reader throwaway) are standing against Invasor on the basis of his disrupted training schedule and unwanted layoff. If he had run creditably in Gold Cup, then I wouldn't be comfortable excluding him from my tickets. I watched the Whitney again, and I don't quite see what he did, but as we've recently discussed, different people see different things in the same race, and who's to say he's not right?