- It's been a few days since I started analyzing the races, and though I haven't made any major changes, some of my opinions have evolved, especially in the four races I wrote about for the Breeders Cup Special coming out later tonight.
So I'll go through the races, do a top three selections thing, and express some second and
third 17th thoughts.
Quick Little MissI don't really have a strong opinion in this race. Cash Included, I think, will be a solid favorite, but not one that I want to go down with in the first race. So I'll make my wild longshot stab right off the bat. I liked her more seriously before the posts were drawn, and the 13 post definitely hurts. She has seven lengths to make up on Cash Included, but she lost tons of ground last time and closed well. She had a nice work with a strong gallop out the other day. Will probably be caught wide again, but at 30-1 seems worth a shot. As for Satulagi? I dunno, just threw her in; she's bred well to handle dirt.
Scat DaddyStreet Sense, 20-1 morning line, is one that I'm taking a closer look at. He ran 48.5 feet more than Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity and lost by a nose. So if Circular Quay is 5-2 as he is in the morning line, don't you just have to like him at 20-1?
I got a glowing report from a knowledgeable observer on the scene on Great Hunter. I'd kinda like to switch and put him on top, but I picked Scat Daddy in the Special. I will have him on top of my tickets in some manner for sure. This is a tough race, and there are other horses I like, including Principle Secret and King of the Roxy. Circular Quay is definitely a win threat, but I think he'll be egregiously overbet, in which case he's worth betting against in a field of this depth.
Ouija BoardI'll be rooting for Ouija Board; it will be a thrill to watch one of the best horses in the world in action; and one who has traveled all over to meet the biggest challenges the sport can offer. But Wait A While has been a phenom, and a win by this three-year old would be electrifying. I know some have expressed concern over her ability to get the distance, but I don't know about that given the way she's run at ten furlongs. I'll use her in my Pick 3's.
Wait A While
Henny HughesI've moved Thor's Echo up. I know the sheets guys are expecting him to bounce off his big number chasing Bordonaro in the Ancient Title. But he had a lot of time off after running second at Dubai, and this is his third start of the form cycle. He might be able to suck along the rail, and could provide some value with Henny on top. As for Bordonaro, I'm not going to use him; Bill Spawr seemed hesitant after the Ancient Title, saying that the horse preferred more time off. Having said that, he's never lost in three tries when running back with four weeks off. But that's what the man said, and that's the way he's campaigned him this year. This is a horse I'm clearly looking for excuses to exclude.
I'll be back soon with the final four races.